Fluctuations in Unemployment and Industry Labor Markets

Throughout the 1990s, and particularly in the mid- to late-1990s, the Japanese employment situation went from bad to worse. We investigate the causes of rising unemployment in Japan, using data on individual workers from the “Special Survey of the Labor Force” between 1988 and 1999. This research focuses on the effect of labor market segmentation by industry on labor flows. Our findings reveal that unemployment in the construction industry and, more recently, in the service industry has contributed greatly to the national unemployment rate. We also find that most successful job transfers occur within the same industry, even though workers may experience some periods of unemployment. Finally, our results show that labor market conditions in each industry affect the probability that a worker will fall into unemployment as well as the probability that an unemployed worker will find new employment. These findings suggest that the Japanese labor market is segmented by industry and this segmentation contributed to the worsening unemployment in Japan. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2001, 15(4), pp. 437–464. Department of Economics, Dokkyo University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Soka-shi, Saitama 340-0042, Japan; Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, 464-8601, Japan. © 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J63, J64.     

International Price Linkage within a Region: The Case of East Asia

This paper investigates how “prices” in East Asian economies correlate with those in Japan and the United States. The analysis is particularly noteworthy because although the East Asian economies are geographically close to Japan, their currencies have been tied more closely to the U.S. dollar. In this paper, we analyze two different types of “prices”: overall price levels in terms of the same currency and relative prices among different commodities. We demonstrate that overall price levels in the East Asian economies are more closely related to those in the United States. However, the relative prices in East Asia, especially those in Taiwan and Korea, are more closely correlated with those in Japan. These price correlation patterns are in marked contrast with those in other regions.J. Japan. Int. Econ.December 1993,11(4), pp. 643–666. Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and Department of Economics, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, and Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, Japan.     

The Exchange Rate Policy of the Euro: A Matter of Size?

This paper analyzes how country size affects exchange rate policy and volatility. A hump shaped relation between exchange rate variability and the size of countries is generated in the theoretical model: exchange rate variability increases with country size for small countries but then decreases for large countries. The paper finds that this theoretical prediction holds well for bilateral exchange rates of the OECD countries in the period between 1980 and 1995 as well as for a subsample of European exchange rates with respect to the dollar. The results suggest that the dollar/euro volability may be lower than the present dollar/DM volatility.J. Japan. Int. Econ., Dec. 1998,12(4), pp. 455–482. CERAS-ENPC, Graduate Institute of International Studies, and CEPR, 28 rue des Saints Pères, Paris 75007, France.Copyright 1998 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers F33, F41, F42.     

Life cycle and bequest savings A study of Japanese and U.S. households based on data from the 1984 NSFIE and the 1983 survey of consumer finances

This paper investigates whether the elderly save or dissave in light of two newly available sets of cross-section micro data, the 1983 “Survey of Consumer Finance” for the United States and the 1984 “National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure” for Japan. Contrary to dominant earlier findings we find for the United States that families after retirement dissave on average about a third of their peak wealth by the time of death, leaving the rest (mostly their homes) as bequests. For Japan, special handling is made to eliminate possible sample selection bias due to the different economic characteristics of the elderly forming independent households and those living with children. We find that the elderly belonging to both groups continue to save, and moreover, there appear to be significant signs of ongoing wealth transfer between the generations. The data in both countries also show that the elasticity of saving with respect to a life time income measure is significantly greater than unity, and more strongly so within higher age groups. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1988, 2(4), pp. 450–491. Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297, and National Bureau of Economic Research.     

The Euro and International Equity Flows

We use a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross-border equity flows between 14 countries. We fit a “gravity model” to these data and a strictly comparable set of data for manufactures trade between these countries. The results are strikingly similar, although the coefficient on the distance variable is lower for equity than for trade flows (but still highly significant). We use the results to throw some light on the likely consequences of unifying the European equity markets.J. Japan. Int. Econ.December 1998,12(4), pp. 406–423. London Business School and CEPR, Sussex Place, Regent's Park, London NW1 4SA, United Kingdom and London School of Economics, London WC2 2AE, United Kingdom.Copyright 1998 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers F21, F3.     

Unemployment and Labor Market Institutions: An Empirical Analysis

The development of the unemployment rate differs substantially between OECD countries. In this paper we investigate to what extent these differences are related to labor market institutions. In our analysis we use data of eighteen OECD countries over the period 1960–1994 and show that the way in which institutions interact is important. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2001, 15(4), pp. 403–418. Department of Economics, CentER, Tilburg University and Institute for Labour Studies (OSA), The Netherlands. © 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E24, J68.     

To Spend the U.S. Government Surplus or to Increase the Deficit? A Numerical Analysis of the Policy Options

This paper provides a numerical analysis of the likely benefits from adopting alternative ways of reducing the projected fiscal surplus (as of the summer 2001) in the United States economy. Calibrating a small growth model, our results suggest that investing the surplus in public capital is likely to yield the greatest long-run welfare gains, although decreasing the capital income tax is only marginally inferior. Both these options dominate increasing government consumption expenditure or decreasing the tax on labor income. By shifting resources from consumption toward capital the two superior policies involve sharp intertemporal tradeoffs in welfare; significant short-run welfare losses are more than compensated by large long-run welfare gains. By contrast, the two inferior options are gradually welfare-improving through time. A crucial factor in determining the benefits of reducing the government surplus through spending is the size of the government sector relative to the social optimum. We find that the second-best optimum is to increase both forms of government expenditure to their respective social optima, while at the same time restructuring taxes by reducing the tax on capital and raising the tax on wage income to achieve the targeted reduction in the surplus. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 405–435. Department of Economics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; and Department of Economics, Terry College of Business, University of Georgia, Atlanta, Georgia. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E62, O41.     

Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns

We apply a modified "gravity model" incorporating measures of factor endowments to analyze Japanese and U.S. bilateral trade flows and direct foreign investment positions with a sample of around 100 countries for the period 1985–1990. Country features that our analysis takes into account are population, income, the land–labor ratio, the average level of education, and region. We find that features of a country associated with more trade with either Japan or the United States also tend to be associated with more direct foreign investment (DFI) from Japan or the United States. U.S. economic relations with Japan and Western Europe provide an important exception. Despite U.S. concern about its trade deficit with Japan, we find Japan to be much more open to the United States, not only as a source of imports, but also as a destination for U.S. exports than most countries in Western Europe. Taking other factors into account, however, Western Europe is more open to U.S. direct foreign investment. We also find that a country′s level of education tends to increase significantly U.S. interaction of all types with that country, even after correcting for per capita income. Education does not play a significant role in Japanese trade patterns. As factor endowment theory would predict, the United States tends to trade more with densely populated countries, while Japan tends to import more from sparsely populated countries. Even after taking into account population, income, factor endowments, and region, there is a substantial degree of "bilateralism" in Japanese and U.S. economic relationships in that the residual correlation among exports, imports, and outward direct foreign investment is much larger than would be the case if these magnitudes were independent across countries. J. Japan. Int. Econ. December 1994, 8(4), pp. 478–510. Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215; and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138.     

Government Deficit, Public Investment, and Public Capital in the Transition to an Aging Japan

This paper examines the effects of government deficits, public investment, and public capital on welfare in the transition to an aging Japan by applying a simulated general equilibrium growth model. One of the main results of this paper is that targeting only high economic growth would mislead us as to economic policies, and that a policy to reduce future government deficits is most preferable for almost all generations, even though a cut in future deficits must be followed by a decrease in public investment, thus a decrease in public capital in the future. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 462–491. Faculty of Economics, Shiga University, Japan; and Management School, Imperial College, United Kingdom. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: H55, H54, H62, C68, J10.     

Why India is mainly engaged in offshore service activities,while China is disproportionately engaged in manufacturing?

We extend the model of Antràs and Helpman (Antràs, P., Helpman, E., 2004. Global Sourcing. Journal of Political Economy 112(3), 552–580) by incorporating the merits of Zhang and Markusen (Zhang, K.H., Markusen, J.R., 1999. Vertical Multinationals and Host-country Characteristics. Journal of Development Economics 59(2), 233–252.) to demonstrate why China has been so successful in disproportionately attracting foreign offshore manufacturing activities, while India has been engaged mainly in offshore service activities. We argue that the host country's industry-specific technology capabilities make the difference in FDI composition between China and India. In addition to incomplete contract frictions, the host country's technological capabilities, which affect technology transfer costs, are essential to FDI inflows. We also find that, after excluding overseas Chinese investment, India is almost on par with China in terms of the market size it offers to marketing-seeking FDI.     

The End of Lifetime Employment in Japan?: Evidence from National Surveys and Field Research

Using both quantitative data from national surveys and qualitative data from our recent field research, this paper provides evidence on the recent transformation of Japan's celebrated practice of lifetime employment (or implicit long-term employment contracts for the regular workforce). Overall, contrary to the popular rhetoric of the end of lifetime employment, evidence points to the enduring nature of this practice in Japan. Specifically, we find little evidence for any major decline in the job retention rates of Japanese employees from the period prior to the burst of the bubble economy in the late 1980s to the post-bubble period. In general, our field research corroborates the main finding from the job retention rates by describing vividly that large firms in Japan have been trying to accomplish their restructuring and downsizing targets by relying heavily on transfers of their employees to their subsidiaries and related firms and hiring cuts, thus avoiding layoffs. Last, the burden of downsizing appears to fall disproportionately on young workers and middle-age workers with shorter tenure. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2001, 15(4), pp. 489–514. Department of Economics, Colgate University, Hamilton, New York 13346; Center on Japanese Economy and Business, Columbia Business School, New York; and TCER. © 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J63, J64, J41, O53.     

An Evolving Diversity of Organizational Mode and Its Implications for Transitional Economies

The paper constructs a theoretical framework for analyzing the comparative informational efficiency of five organizational modes, each modeled after an evolving diversity of a firm′s internal organization in market economies. It then discusses analytical implications for the organizational reform which may emerge within the ex-state-owned enterprise under evolutionary constraints of the transition, particularly under the tendency toward insider control. It is maintained that possible organizational reform hinges upon the coevolution of complementary ownership structure and financial monitoring mechanism. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1995, 9(4), pp. 330–353. Department of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305.     

The political economy of agrarian reform in Yucatán, Mexico

Fundamental land tenure reform in Yucatán has been characterized by declining productivity in the henequén ejidos (collectives), and the Banco Rural — which supervises and finances the ejidos — has sustained chronic, burgeoning operational losses. Several related causes account for the economic failure of the Reforma Agraria: (1) the disruption of the spatial unity and organizational integrity of the expropriated agroindustrial estates, (2) the perverse incentive structure facing the ejidatarios, the presumed ‘owners’ of the collective ejidos, (3) the debilitating corruption that has characterized the official bank's management of the ejidos, (4) the primacy of the federal government's and the official party's political/ social goals in the state over economic/market considerations.     

Tests of microeconomic foundations of Asian common currency areas

The formation of the euro bloc sparked renewed interest in other potential common currency areas. Swofford [Swofford, J. L. (2000). Microeconomic foundations of an optimal currency area. Review of Financial Economics, 9, 121–128] set forth some microeconomic foundations for a common currency area. In this paper, some results from tests of these microeconomic foundations for various hypothesized Asian common currency areas are presented. These results can be viewed as broadly favorable for the formation of some Asian common currency areas.     

Economics of Agglomeration

We address the fundamental question arising in geographical economics: why do economic activities agglomerate in a small number of places? The main reasons for the formation of economic clusters involving firms and/or households are analyzed: (i) externalities under perfect competition; (ii) increasing returns under monopolistic competition; and (iii) spatial competition under strategic interaction. We review what has been accomplished in these three domains and identify a few general principles governing the organization of economic space. A few alternative, new approaches are also proposed.J. Japan. Int. Econ.,December 1996,10(4), pp. 339–378. Kyoto University and University of Pennsylvania; and CORE, Université Catholique de Louvain and CERAS–ENPC (URA 2036, CNRS).     

Fiscal Reconstruction and Local Interest Groups in Japan

This paper investigates the politicoeconomic properties of the fiscal reconstruction process in Japan by analyzing the dynamic game among local interest groups with concessions of region-specific privileges. Free-riding behavior of local interest groups brings numerous deficits. Our empirical evidence indicates that local privileges were powerful in the 1990s, which is the main reason fiscal reconstruction did not perform very well in the 1990s. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 492–511. Faculty of Economics, Keio University, and Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego; and Department of Economics, University of Tokyo, Hongo, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan, and Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office of Japan, 3-1-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8970, Japan. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: H41, F13, D62.     

Information technology and the Japanese economy

In this paper we compare sources of economic growth in Japan and the United States from 1975 through 2003, focusing on the role of information technology (IT). We have adjusted Japanese data to conform to US definitions in order to provide a rigorous comparison between the two economies. The adjusted data show that the share of the Japanese gross domestic product devoted to investment in computers, telecommunications equipment, and software rose sharply after 1995. The contribution of total factor productivity growth from the IT sector in Japan also increased, while the contributions of labor input and productivity growth from the non-IT sector lagged far behind the United States. Our projection of potential economic growth in Japan from for the next decade is substantially below that in the United States, mainly due to slower growth of labor input. Our projections of labor productivity growth in the two economies are much more similar. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 460–481.     

The Spread of Industry: Spatial Agglomeration in Economic Development

This paper describes the spread of industry from country to country as a region grows. All industrial sectors are initially agglomerated in one country, tied together by input–output links between firms. Growth expands industry more than other sectors, bidding up wages in the country in which industry is clustered. At some point firms start to move away, and when a critical mass is reached industry expands into another country, raising wages there. We establish the circumstances in which industry spills over, which sectors move out first, and which are more important in triggering a critical mass.J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1996,10(4), pp. 440–464. Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics; and London School of Economics and Centre for Economic Policy Research.     

On simultaneous explanation of long and medium-term employment cycles

Summary Long and medium-term employment cycles are simultaneously analyzed in a dynamic disequilibrium model, which applies the Goodwin (1951)-type nonlinear accelerator to capital widening and capital deepening investment separately. Capacity utilization and profitability are the variables that control this — purely endogenous — dynamic process. A link is provided between the disequilibrium analysis of unemployment by Malinvaudet al. and nonlinear cycle theories. Different unemployment regimes,i.e. deficient demand, deficient capacity, deficient labor intensity as causes of unemployment, emerge in a dynamic context. Time path and periodicity have a straight interpretation in terms of the behavioral parameters of the model.Two mathematical appendices belonging to section 3 below have been omitted for reasons of space. These are available on request.This article appeared in a preliminary form as a Research Memorandum of the Department of Economics of the University of Amsterdam, No. 8717. The author would like to thank H. Amman, W. Driehuis, C. van Ewijk, C. Teulings and an anonymous referee for their comments on earlier drafts of this paper.     

The Fiscal Investment and Loan Program in Transition

This paper discusses the adequacy of the activities of the Fiscal Investment Loan Program (FILP) agencies after the fundamental reform in April 2001, which disconnected postal savings and public pension reserves from the FILP. It is found that many ideas of justifying the government interventions to the financial sector have now lost their relevancy. The activity of government financial intermediaries should be streamlined. Among infrastructure construction projects, the most serious part of welfare loss lies on national motorway construction, which is estimated to be about 14.5 trillion yen of welfare loss. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 583–604. Department of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi, 186-8601, Japan; and TCER. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: H81, H54, R42.