Economics at the FTC: The Google-DoubleClick Merger,Resale Price Maintenance,Mortgage Disclosures,and Credit Scoring in Auto Insurance

Economics at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) supports both the competition and consumer protection missions of the agency. In this year’s essay we discuss competition activity with a summary of our work on the Google-DoubleClick merger and recent activity on resale price maintenance, an area in which FTC economists had done significant prior research. On the consumer policy front, we discuss our study of ways to improve mortgage disclosures to facilitate consumer shopping and competition. Finally, we discuss our study of the effects of credit scoring on prices paid for auto insurance with a focus on the effects of scores on different racial and ethnic groups.     

Economics at the FTC: Hospital Mergers,Authorized Generic Drugs,and Consumer Credit Markets

Economists at the Federal Trade Commission pursue the agency’s competition and consumer protection missions. In this year’s essay, in antitrust, we discuss various aspects of our hospital merger analyses as well as the effects of authorized generic drugs on consumers and competition. In consumer protection, we describe two ongoing studies on the use of credit-based insurance scores to price homeowners insurance, and the accuracy of consumers’ credit reports that are provided by credit bureaus.     

Economics at the FTC: Retrospective Merger Analysis with a Focus on Hospitals

Economists at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) support the agency’s competition and consumer protection missions. In this year’s essay we discuss efforts at the FTC and elsewhere to examine empirically the competitive effects of mergers. This work has ranged from subjective interview-based reports on post-merger behavior to more objective analyses of post-merger performance based on rigorous empirical analysis of prices. In this essay we discuss the merger retrospective literature generally, and focus on the FTC staff’s recent empirical analyses of consummated hospital mergers.     

Economics at the FTC: Pharmaceutical Patent Dispute Settlements and Behavioral Economics

Economics at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) supports both the competition and consumer protection missions of the agency. In this year’s essay we discuss two issues, one from each of the agency’s missions. First, we focus on intellectual property issues in pharmaceuticals. Specifically, we discuss the principal rationale for antitrust concerns about certain patent dispute settlements in the ethical drug industry. Then, we discuss consumer economics, our recent behavioral economics conference, and how behavioral economics influences our thinking about consumer policy.     

Economics at the FTC: Data Intensive Mergers and Policy R&D

Economics at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) supports both the competition and consumer protection missions of the agency. In this year’s essay we discuss a range of activities focusing on data-intensive antitrust cases in the hospital and consumer products industries. We also discuss our most recent work on gasoline pricing. Policy-focused research and competition advocacy takes center stage as we discuss some health care advocacy work in the administration of pharmaceutical insurance benefits and efforts to understand the real estate business more completely. Finally, we describe our efforts to quantify the extent of “identity theft”.     

Economics Research at the FTC: Information,Retrospectives, and Retailing

Individual Federal Trade Commission (FTC) cases invariably raise broad questions about consumers, markets, and effective enforcement policy. Recent consumer protection cases raise questions about information regulation. Horizontal merger enforcement has recently focused on retrospective analysis of mergers and the role of the retail sector in predicting the effects of manufacturer mergers. In this paper, we describe research by the FTCs Bureau of Economics that addresses these three areas. We argue that such research is well worth the agencys relatively small resource investment because it demonstrably contributes to more thoughtful policy analysis and better policy outcomes.     

Economics at the FTC: Drug and PBM Mergers and Drip Pricing

Economists at the Federal Trade Commission pursue the agency??s competition and consumer protection missions. In this year??s essay, in antitrust, we discuss two recent mergers that involved Rx drugs: First, we describe key elements of the inquiry into the Express Scripts/Medco transaction in the pharmacy benefit management industry. Next, we analyze a merger that involved drugs that are used to treat patent ductus arteriosus: a condition that affects premature babies. On the consumer protection side, we discuss a pricing strategy??drip pricing??that involves the release of price information about a multi-part product over time as the consumer goes through the purchase process.     

Economics at the FTC: Physician Acquisitions, Standard Essential Patents, and Accuracy of Credit Reporting

Economists at the Federal Trade Commission pursue the agency’s competition and consumer protection missions. In this year’s essay, with respect to antitrust we discuss the analysis that is used in two areas where the Commission has recently been active: physician combinations and standard essential patents. In consumer protection, we discuss the FTC’s recently released national study of the accuracy of consumer credit reports.     

Multimarket Contact and Intensity of Competition: Evidence from an Airline Merger

This paper examines the relationship between multimarket contact (MMC) and the intensity of competition. We take advantage of a recent merger, which altered the extent of MMC throughout the US airline industry, to understand the nature of MMC’s impact on the airlines’ frequency of service. Evidence that non-price effects of MMC are a part of the longer-term industry equilibrium is not robust. However, we observe that following the merger the market players started taking the degree of MMC into account in making their frequency decisions in line with the ‘mutual forbearance’ hypothesis; however, the effect showed signs of diminishing over time. Our results have implications for merger evaluation in industries where consolidation may lead to a higher extent of multimarket contact.     

Assessing the Efficacy of Structural Merger Remedies: Choosing Between Theories of Harm?

This paper shows that many structural remedies in a sample of European merger cases result in market structures which would probably not be cleared by the Competition Authority (CA) if they were the result of merger (rather than remedy). This is explained by the fact that the CA’s objective through remedy is to restore pre-merger competition, but markets are often highly concentrated even before merger. If so, the CA must often choose between clearing an ‘uncompetitive’ merger, or applying an unsatisfactory remedy. Here, the CA appears reluctant to intervene against coordinated effects, if doing so enhances a leader’s dominance.     

The Year in Economics at the FCC: A National Plan for Broadband

The past year in economics at the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has focused on encouraging the adoption and deployment of high capacity Internet access and the associated networks, commonly termed “broadband.” Our article sketches important economic themes in the FCC’s National Broadband Plan to show how the application of basic principles of regulatory economics takes account of rapid technological change. We discuss natural monopoly regulation, externalities and cross-subsidies, network effects and interconnection, the allocation of scarce inputs, protecting and fostering competitive markets, and consumer protection and transparency as they apply to the development of broadband.     

Merger Simulation in the Presence of Large Choice Sets and Consumer Stockpiling: The Case of the Bottled Juice Industry

We simulate the price effects of several hypothetical mergers in the shelf-stable bottled juice industry. In doing so, we highlight the effects of consumer stockpiling on demand elasticity estimates and subsequent merger simulations. This task is complicated by a large number of choice alternatives within the bottled juice category. To address this challenge we employ a demand model based on the Distance Metric (DM) approach of Pinkse et al. (Econometrica 70:1111–1153, 2002). We find that merger simulations that do not account for consumer stockpiling behavior underestimate the permanent price changes that are likely to occur due to a merger.      

An Empirical Analysis of Mexican Merger Policy

A newly created dataset including 239 decisions made by the Mexican Federal Competition Commission on horizontal mergers is used to estimate the different factors affecting the Commission’s resolution decisions. The decision-making process has been approximated by two different discrete choice models. Our results indicate that, contrary to the Commission’s objective, the presence of efficiency gains increases the probability of a case being challenged. We also find that factors different from the ones explicitly mentioned by the Commission have a significant effect upon the Commission’s final decision. In particular, the presence of a foreign company among the would-be merger firms significantly increases the likelihood of observing an allowed merger.      

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions by Chinese listed companies: A principal–principal perspective

Chinese listed firms have gained the world’s attention with several ambitious, high-profile cross-border mergers and acquisitions. In most of these deals, the Chinese government is the largest shareholder of the acquiring firms. As such, it may be the case that the Chinese government pushes through such deals even though they are not in the best interests of minority shareholders, giving rise to principal–principal conflicts. Along these lines, we hypothesize that increased government ownership in the acquiring firm will be associated with investors viewing a cross-border merger deal in less favorable terms. In addition, we hypothesize that environmental complexity will moderate this negative relationship. We test our hypotheses with a sample of cross-border mergers and acquisitions involving Chinese firms from 2000 to 2008. We find support for the main hypothesis, that is, that investors are indeed skeptical of cross-border mergers and acquisitions deals when the government is the majority owner (i.e., principal–principal conflicts). However, we find no support for the moderating effect. We discuss the implications of these findings for researchers and practitioners and suggest future research directions.     

The persistence of broadband user behavior: Implications for universal service and competition policy

In several markets, firms compete not for consumer expenditure but consumer attention. We examine user priorities over the allocation of their time, and interpret that behavior in light of policy discussions over universal service, data caps, and related policy topics, such as merger analysis. Specifically, we use extensive microdata on user online choice to characterize the demand for the services offered online, which drives a household's supply of attention. Our data cover a period of time that saw the introduction of many new and notable sites and new devices on which to access them. In our analysis, we assess “how” households supply their attention along various dimensions, such as their concentration of attention across the universe of sites and the amount of attention expenditure per domain visit. Remarkably, we find no change in “how” households allocated their attention despite drastically changing where they allocated it. Moreover, conditional on total attention expenditure, demographics entirely fail to predict our key measures of attention allocation decisions. We highlight several important implications, for policy and beyond, stemming from the persistence and demographic orthogonality of our novel attention measures.     

横向合并控制中的资产剥离问题——基于古诺竞争的分析

本文基于古诺竞争构建了一个"三阶段"的博弈模型,分析了外资企业合并控制中的资产剥离问题,探讨了资产剥离的有效性及福利效应。研究发现:在一定条件下,资产剥离能够削弱合并带来的单边效应,改善社会福利,增加合并被批准的可能性。在此基础上,本文探讨了消费者福利标准与社会总福利标准之间的差别,认为提高社会总福利的资产剥离很有可能会降低消费者福利。同时,本文还详细模拟了外资企业与国内企业竞拍剥离资产的过程,认为竞拍结果的不同取决于市场规模的大小以及资产剥离的数量。最后,得出结论并为中国资产剥离的实施提出建议。     

Recent Developments at the CMA: 2018–2019

We discuss three important cases that the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has completed over the past year: The first two cases—the Experian/ClearScore merger and the Hotel Online Booking enforcement case—demonstrate our recent work on digital industries. We provide an overview of developments in this area and the CMA’s evolving approach to addressing such cases. The third case was a proposed merger between two of the UK’s largest grocery chains: Sainsbury’s and Asda. This proposed merger was ultimately prohibited by the CMA.

     

Forward Contracts,Market Structure and the Welfare Effects of Mergers

We examine how forward contracts affect economic outcomes under generalized market structures. In the model, forward contracts discipline the exercise of market power by making profit less sensitive to changes in output. This impact is greatest in markets with intermediate levels of concentration. Mergers reduce the use of forward contracts in equilibrium and, in markets that are sufficiently concentrated, this amplifies the adverse effects on consumer surplus. Additional analyses of merger profitability and collusion are provided. Throughout, we illustrate and extend the theoretical results using Monte Carlo simulations. We discuss the practical relevance for antitrust enforcement.     

The Price Effects of Using Firewalls as an Antitrust Remedy

Antitrust authorities have imposed firewalls between the previously separate divisions of newly vertically integrated firms in several industries, to address concerns that access to horizontal rivals’ proprietary information may reduce competition. This paper evaluates a specific antitrust concern by modeling the price effect of one seller’s learning its rival’s production costs before bidding in a duopoly procurement contest. The results show that imposing a firewall as a condition for permitting a vertical merger actually can lead to higher prices than if the flow of information were unimpeded, and they provide guidance as to when this unintended outcome occurs.