The Earnings Smoothing Potential of Systematic Depreciation

Ample evidence exists that managers attempt to use 'artificial' choices concerning alternative accounting procedures for classification, valuation and allocation of transactions to smooth reported periodic income or earnings series. However, the actual smoothing effect of such choices and their influence on the properties of earnings numbers is unknown. This study analyses the smoothing potential of depreciation when systematically applied. It exploits an idea regarding the effects of inclusion of expectations information in earnings calculations due to Willett (1988, 1991b), theoretically elaborated by Gibbins and Willett (1997) and applied analytically by Lane and Willett (1997). Using a statistical activity cost theory (SACT) framework, we quantify the smoothing (variance reduction) potential of straight-line and reducing-balance depreciation methods and compare the potential with an analytically derived depreciation method which optimizes variance reduction. We also evaluate the effects of conditioning factors such as accuracy of managers' expectations and relative asset acquisition and disposal values upon smoothing potential. We find that systematically depreciating assets can smooth undepreciated earnings numbers. Straight-line depreciation can exploit virtually all of this potential and reducing-balance depreciation a substantial proportion. However, realising this potential varies greatly depending on conditioning factors. The investigation is practical and policy oriented but complementary to theoretical extensions of the sort suggested by Butler et al. (1994). While the article focuses on depreciation, the SACT framework is completely general and may be extended to any choice of method for smoothing earnings series.     

Predicting Half-Yearly Accounting Income Numbers With Statistical Models

Prediction of half-yearly accounting income numbers has an important role in investment analysis, credit ratings, budgeting, auditing and other areas of the accounting and finance profession. This study provides the Australian evidence on two issues: the statistical relationship between half-yearly accounting income numbers such as earnings per share, net profit and sales; and the ability of statistical models to predict these numbers. The study finds that the best way to predict the next period's half-yearly accounting income numbers is to use the immediately preceding half-yearly income number, and for inflation-adjusted sales the corresponding previous half-yearly figures, or to use a statistical model based on the immediately preceding half-yearly figure adjusted by a statistically based "smoothing constant".     

EXTRAORDINARY ITEMS AND INCOME SMOOTHING: A POSITIVE ACCOUNTING APPROACH

This is an empirical study of single-period income smoothing which uses an incentives-based model to explain classificatory choices. An index is constructed to measure the smoothing effect of these choices. Weighted least squares regression results indicate that classificatory choices consistent with smoothing are more likely to be observed in firms with high earnings variability, high dividend payout, substantial managerial holdings of share options and diffuse share ownership. The existence of material scope for smoothing strengthens these findings. The model as a whole is statistically significant and, although the proportion of variability in smoothing explained is modest, it compares very favourably with other accounting choice studies. The relationship between smoothing and alternative earnings management strategies, including big bath accounting, is explored.     

Fair Value Accounting Compared to Other Accounting Systems

Abstract

It is well known that the total profit generated from an insurance product is fixed (unless the accounting system affects the product management), but the incidence of reported profit varies depending on the accounting system used and the way that assumptions are set and reset. The purpose of this paper is to take a very simple product (a single-premium deferred annuity (SPDA) with no special features) and follow its earnings over a 15-year period. We will examine the volatility of earnings under Fair Value (FV) accounting as proposed by the International Accounting Standards Committee (IASC), as we understand it, and U.S. GAAP and U.S. Statutory accounting. Additionally, we will examine how each of the accounting systems is impacted by the choice of a lapse assumption. We have the additional objective of simplicity, to produce a model that the reader can relate to and whose calculations can be reproduced with nominal effort.     

The options market response to accounting earnings announcements

We examine the reaction of the equity options market to accounting earnings announcements over the period 1996–2008 using changes in implied volatility to measure the options market response to earnings news. We find that positive earnings surprises and positive profit announcements produce a larger uncertainty resolution than negative earnings surprises and loss announcements. We demonstrate an inverse relation between the change in implied volatility and earnings news in a three-day window immediately after an earnings announcement. We refer to the magnitude of this relation as the ‘options market earnings response coefficient’. This ‘options market earnings response coefficient’ is stronger for both bad news announcements and positive profit announcements. We do not find any significant relation between changes in implied volatility and earnings news in the pre- or post-announcement periods. We conclude that the options market efficiently absorbs earnings information.     

Climate for Scandal: Corporate Environments that Contribute to Accounting Fraud

We examine the governance characteristics, earnings quality, growth rates, dividend policy, and compensation structure of 97 firms recently under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for accounting fraud. Our results show that the corporate environment most likely to lead to an accounting scandal manifests significant growth and accounting practices that are already pushing the envelope of earnings smoothing. Firms operating in this environment seem more likely to tip over the edge into fraud if there are fewer outsiders on the audit committee and outside directors appear overcommitted.     

管理层变更与盈余管理——基于我国上市公司的实证研究

盈余管理是造成会计质量低下的主要原因之一,我国上市公司管理层变更与盈余管理存在着密切的关系。本文通过实证方法,采用线下利润占总利润的比重作为衡量盈余管理的指标对我国上市公司管理层的变更和非营业活动进行的盈余管理进行研究,并利用应计利润模型（Jones模型和修正的Jones模型）对发生管理层变更的公司进行盈余管理的检验。     

Discussion of “Using accounting information for consumption planning and equity valuation”

This paper discusses Yee (2007), who investigates the role of accounting information for consumption planning and equity valuation. Higher earnings quality increases investor welfare and ex ante stock prices as well as the weight on earnings in valuation equations based on both cash flows and earnings. The former is due to improved consumption smoothing through more informed production choices, while the latter is due to the impact on the relative information content of current cash flows versus earnings about future cash flows.     

会计盈余、现金流量的价值相关性实证研究基于沪深股市的实证证据

已有的研究结果说明会计盈余具有价值相关性。从盈余等于经营现金流量与应计利润之和这一新的视角切入，以实证的方法对沪深两地上市的A股公司进行三大样本检验。并通过建立股票报酬与应计利润和现金流量的回归方程，利用应计利润回归系数的显著性对会计盈余与现金流量的价值相关性做比较，结果表明，会计盈余的价值相关性要大于现金流量的价值相关性。     

HOW TO FIX ACCOUNTING—MEASURE AND REPORT ECONOMIC PROFIT

Bending accounting rules has become so ingrained in our corporate culture that even ethical business leaders succumb to the temptation to “manage” their earnings in order to meet analysts' demands for smoothly rising results. The author of this article argues that such behavior reflects not a general decline in ethical standards so much as executives' growing sense that accounting itself has become “unhinged from value.” For example, clearly valuable expenditures on R&D, customer acquisition, and employee training are generally expensed immediately against earnings. And reported corporate income is often further reduced by provisions for losses that most companies never expect to incur, by “book” taxes they never expect to pay, and by depreciation charges on assets that are actually increasing in value. At the same time, the opportunity costs associated with employee stock options and the corporate use of equity capital are not reflected in the accountant's measure of profit. To improve the quality of corporate governance and revitalize the public's faith in reported earnings, the author proposes a complete overhaul of GAAP accounting to measure and report economic profit, or EVA. Stated in brief, the author's concept of economic profit begins with an older, but now seldom used, definition of accounting income known as “residual income,” and then proposes a series of additional adjustments to GAAP accounting that are designed to produce a reliable measure of a company's annual, sustainable cash‐generating capacity. Besides expensing the cost of equity capital as well as stock options, the author recommends bringing off‐balance‐sheet items such as pension assets and liabilities back onto the balance sheet, eliminating reserve accounting, capitalizing R&D and other expenditures on intangible assets, and recording economic rather than accounting depreciation. Such changes, by replacing the accountants' current flawed definition of earnings with a comprehensive new statement of value added, could restore investor confidence in financial statements. Even more important, managers would be less likely to pursue their now common practice of boosting earnings by making value‐reducing operating and investment decisions and more likely to use financial reporting not to mislead the market but as an opportunity to communicate relevant, forward‐looking information.     

Hierarchy of earnings thresholds based on discretionary accruals

Prior studies identify hierarchies of earnings thresholds based on distributions of earnings (e.g., Degeorge et al., 1999) and survey opinions of CFOs (Graham, Harvey, & Rajgopal, 2005). We complement extant literature by investigating a threshold hierarchy in the context of accounting discretion exercised by managers. We examine the relative extent of discretionary accruals used to achieve three earnings thresholds—avoiding losses, avoiding earnings declines, and avoiding negative earnings surprises. Our empirical findings suggest that managers are likely to use the largest amount of discretionary accruals to avoid earnings declines, and the least amount of discretionary accruals to avoid negative earnings surprises. Thus, this study identifies the hierarchy of the earnings thresholds based on accounting discretion used in financial reporting. We also find that the hierarchy remains stable over the last two decades during our sample period. Then, we provide several explanations for why managers are likely to exercise more accounting discretion to avoid earnings declines. These explanations include earnings smoothing, reduction of stock returns volatility, and signaling of future growth potential. Overall, this study provides new insights into accruals management behavior.     

The decision relevance and timeliness of accounting earnings in Saudi Arabia

This study examines the decision relevance and timeliness of accounting earnings in Saudi Arabia during the 1995-1999 sample period. The empirical results suggest that the publication of accounting earnings does not cause significant revision to the market assessment of future cash flows of Saudi firms. On the other hand, it appears that the publication of accounting earnings leads individual investors to revise their security holdings. However, this evidence is limited to cases where firms reported profit. The empirical results further suggest that earnings are timely in terms of their association with security returns and that increasing the measurement interval significantly improves this association. The tests also show that positive and negative earnings have differential implications for the timeliness of accounting earnings. Further tests show that this evidence is not consistent with the loss liquidation argument [J. Account. Econ. 20 (1995) 125] and, potentially, may reflect the lack of tax incentives to liquidate investments in loss firms. Finally, the results show that Saudi managers do not incorporate economic losses into accounting earnings on a timely basis which may reflect reduced market demand for accounting information, low levels of public debt, low expected litigation costs, and weak monitoring by analysts and other stakeholders.     

Management earnings forecasts and IPO performance: evidence of a regime change

Companies undertaking initial public offerings (IPOs) in Greece were obliged to include next-year profit forecast in their prospectuses, until the regulation changed in 2001 to voluntary forecasting. Drawing evidence from IPOs issued in the period 1993–2015, this is the first study to investigate the effect of disclosure regime on management earnings forecasts and IPO long-term performance. The findings show mainly positive forecast errors (forecasts are lower than actual earnings) and higher long-term returns during the mandatory period, suggesting that the mandatory disclosure requirement causes issuers to systematically bias profit forecasts downwards as they opt for the safety of accounting conservatism. The mandatory disclosure requirement artificially improves IPO share performance. Overall, our results show that mandatory disclosure of earnings forecasts can impede capital market efficiency once it goes beyond historical financial information to involve compulsory projections of future performance.     

Nonlinear dynamics in discretionary accruals: An analysis of bank loan-loss provisions

Several studies have analyzed discretionary accruals to address earnings-smoothing behaviors in the banking industry. We argue that the characteristic link between accruals and earnings may be nonlinear, since both the incentives to manipulate income and the practical way to do so depend partially on the relative size of earnings. Given a sample of 15,268 US banks over the period 1996–2011, the main results in this paper suggest that, depending on the size of earnings, bank managers tend to engage in earnings-decreasing strategies when earnings are negative (“big-bath”), use earnings-increasing strategies when earnings are positive, and use provisions as a smoothing device when earnings are positive and substantial (“cookie-jar” accounting). This evidence, which cannot be explained by the earnings-smoothing hypothesis, is consistent with the compensation theory. Neglecting nonlinear patterns in the econometric modeling of these accruals may lead to misleading conclusions regarding the characteristic strategies used in earnings management.     

THE VALUE-RELEVANCE OF UK DIRTY SURPLUS ACCOUNTING FLOWS

Misgivings about dirty surplus accounting practices derive, in part, from two related concerns. Firstly, it has been argued that dirty surplus accounting might result in value-relevant items being reported within ‘dirty surplus flows’ rather than within earnings. Secondly, it has been suggested that the low transparency of dirty surplus flows might reduce investors' ability to recognize value-relevant items in a timely fashion. In this study, we address the first of these concerns. We examine UK stock returns and accounting flows accumulated over intervals of up to 20 years. We report evidence on the value-relevance of accounting flows which were excluded from ‘ordinary profit’ (i.e. accounting profit exclusive of extraordinary items) in the UK over the period from 1972 to 1992. Our tests provide strong evidence that UK ordinary profit is value-relevant and provide some evidence, on the basis of long-interval tests, that extraordinary items are value-relevant. There is little evidence that other flows excluded from ordinary profit are value-relevant, however. These finding may allay concerns that, by allowing value-relevant flows to bypass reported earnings, dirty surplus accounting practices have promoted undesirable ‘creative accounting’ activity by UK firms.     

Environmental uncertainty and the market pricing of earnings smoothness

Environmental uncertainty induces variability in an organization's reported earnings, and accentuates the information asymmetry between its managers and outside stakeholders. Managers operating in an environment of high uncertainty, therefore, have an incentive to reduce such variability by smoothing income numbers. We investigate the stock market response to earnings smoothness for firms operating in an environment of high uncertainty. We measure income smoothing by the negative correlation of a firm's change in discretionary accruals with its change in pre-managed earnings as per Tucker and Zarowin (2006). Using future earnings response coefficient (FERC) methodology to measure the informativeness of smoothed earnings, and two measures of environmental uncertainty, this paper documents that current stock price incorporates more information about future earnings for firms operating in high uncertain environments, thus supporting the informational value view of income smoothing.     

'Smoothing' Manifestations in Fourth Quarter Results of Operations: Some Empirical Evidence

'Smoothing' Manifestations in Fourth Quarter Results of Operations: Some Empirical Evidence
The subject of smoothing of annual income numbers has occupied a good deal of the accounting literature. The finding of most studies was that managers of firms did behave as if they intended to impart a smoother trend to accounting earnings. The availability of quarterly reports provides us with an opportunity to gain insights into the timing of smoothing decisions. The paper tests the hypothesis that the observed first three quarters' results trigger actions by management during the fourth quarter that appear as smoothing behaviour. The findings indicate that the manifestations of end-of-year actions by managers are consistent with the possible attempt on their part to alter fourth quarter reported results so as to offset extreme deviations of the first three quarters' reported numbers from a given, predefined, 'normal' trend presumably deemed by managers to be desirable to report.     

Using Available-for-sale Securities to Smooth Earnings: Evidence from China

Utilizing a large sample of non-financial public firms in China from 2009 to 2016, we find robust evidence that non-financial firms smooth their earnings through realized gains and losses on available-for-sale (AFS) securities. This effect is more pronounced for firms with weaker internal and external corporate governance. Firms with an incentive to manipulate up their earnings are also less likely to smooth earnings through AFS securities. Moreover, firms with more accrual earnings management or real earnings management tend to smooth earnings to a greater extent through AFS securities. Firms smooth earnings only when their net income is positive or when net income is negative and the gains from AFS securities are large enough to offset negative earnings. We do not find supporting evidence for engaging in big bath earnings management through the realization of losses on AFS securities. These findings suggest that gains and losses on AFS securities allow non-financial firms to actively smooth their earnings. Last, the accounting standards amendments in 2017 that essentially disable earnings smoothing through AFS securities increase price efficiency.     

The effect of internal control and risk management regulation on earnings quality: Evidence from Germany

We investigate the impact of mandatory internal control and risk management (ICRM) reform on earnings-based attributes of accounting quality in Germany. Although prior studies examine changes in accounting quality under SOX Sections 302 and 404, there is scant evidence of the accounting quality effects of ICRM reform in foreign jurisdictions. Such evidence is warranted given the ongoing global policy debate of ICRM reform in the post-SOX era. We extend existing research by examining changes in earnings quality following the 1998 German legislation on control and transparency (KTG). The KTG regime provides a unique setting in which the regulatory scope extends beyond internal control over financial reporting (ICFR) to include broad business and enterprise risk control. Using both a differences and difference-in-differences research design, we find that German firms experience an increase in timely loss recognition and a decrease in earnings smoothing after KTG. We also find some evidence of a decrease in loss avoidance behavior. Additional analyses show that the sensitivity of capital investment efficiency to earnings quality increases in the German market after KTG, suggesting that earnings quality effects of mandatory ICRM reform has positive consequences for capital resource allocation. Together, our results are consistent with the achievement of one of the intended outcomes of ICRM regulation—increased accounting quality through effective ICRM systems.