Variable markups in the long-run: A generalization of preferences in growth models

This paper introduces variable markups in a horizontal-differentiation growth model by considering a larger class of preferences that nests the classic “CES” specification usually present in the workhorse love-for-variety models. Our first result is to obtain a generalized characterization of the Euler condition for this broader class of utility functions: in our model, the Euler rule features a supplementary term aiming at compensating the consumer for variations in the preference for variety along the consumption level. We are then also able to demonstrate that in our generalized framework, the economy’s balanced growth path displays both endogenous markups and a strictly positive growth rate of the number of available varieties (being the engine of growth). Finally, we show that under endogenous markups, the economy’s growth rate and firms’ market power can display a negative correlation, as opposed to the standard result obtained in the CES framework.     

Dynamic theory of preferences: Habit formation and taste for variety

We analyze individual preferences over infinite horizon consumption choices. Our axioms provide the foundation for a recursive representation of the utility function that contains as particular cases the classical Koopmans representation (Koopmans (1960)) as well as the habit formation specification.We examine some of the consequences of our axiomatization by considering a standard consumer choice problem, and show that typically in the space of concave utility functions satisfying our axioms the consumer displays a taste for variety. The latter means that such a consumer selects optimally time variant consumption programs for any given time invariant sequence of commodities’ relative prices and for all possible sequences of market discount factors. In contrast, if a concave utility function satisfies Koopmans’ axioms the consumer does not display a taste for variety.     

Time-inconsistent preferences and social security: Revisited in continuous time

?mrohoro?lu et al. (2003) prove that it is impossible in a three period partial equilibrium model for social security to improve the welfare of a naive quasi-hyperbolic agent if the program has a negative net present value. This paper first generalizes their impossibility theorem to a continuous time setting and then proves analytically that no discount function exists that can rationalize a social security program with a negative net present value.     

Nonrecursive separation of risk and time preferences

Recursive utility disentangles preferences with respect to time and risk by recursively building up a value function of local increments. This involves certainty equivalents of indirect utility. Instead we disentangle preferences with respect to time and risk by building up a value function as a non-linear aggregation of certainty equivalents of direct utility of consumption. This entails time-consistency issues which are dealt with by looking for an equilibrium control and an equilibrium value function rather than a classical optimal control and a classical optimal value function. We characterize the solution in a general diffusive incomplete market model and find that, in certain special cases of utmost interest, the characterization coincides with what would arise from a recursive utility approach. But also importantly, in other cases, it does not: The two approaches are fundamentally different but match, exclusively but importantly, in the mathematically special case of homogeneity of the value function.     

Abatement R&D,market imperfections,and environmental policy in an endogenous growth model

We develop an endogenous growth model featuring environmental externalities, abatement R&D, and market imperfections. We compare the economic performances under three distinct regimes that encompass public abatement, private abatement without tax recycling, and private abatement with tax recycling. It is found that the benefit arising from private abatement will be larger if the degree of the firms’ monopoly power is greater. With a reasonably high degree of monopoly power, a mixed abatement policy by which the government recycles environmental tax revenues to subsidize the private abatement R&D is a plausible way of reaching the highest growth rate and welfare.     

Green shoots and double dips in the euro area: A real time measure

In order to perform real-time business cycle inferences and forecasts of GDP growth rates in the euro area, we use an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the features of the day-to-day monitoring of economic developments, such as ragged edges, mixed frequencies and data revisions. We provide examples that show the nonlinear nature of the relationships between data revisions, point forecasts and forecast uncertainty. Based on our empirical results, we think that the real-time probabilities of recession inferred from the model are an appropriate statistic for capturing what the press call green shoots, and for monitoring double-dip recessions.     

Similarities and differences of motivations of giving time and money: Giving to individuals versus humanitarian organizations in an emerging market

This paper provides the first empirically based study of the formal and informal money and time giving motivations together in an emerging market (Turkey) context. Drawing on empathy–altruism hypothesis and social exchange theory, this study aims to examine relationships between internal charitable motivations and the donation of money and time giving to individuals and humanitarian organizations in the context of a Turkish sample. Empathy and altruism, religious values, social impact, materialism, and conspicuous giving motivations are examined in this study. The results indicate that giving motivations change by giving type. Empathy and altruism motivations effect on all types of giving. Persons tend to be more motivated to give money and time interpersonally than through organizations. Furthermore, money and time given to individuals explained by more motivation in the context of a Turkish sample. Theoretical and practical implications of the results are considered, and future research opportunities are discussed.     

Growth effects of annuities and government transfers in perpetual youth models

We show that in overlapping generations endogenous growth models with uncertain lifetime, the introduction of government transfers always increases economic growth by crowding out the private annuity market and increasing accidental bequests. In particular, if the government imposes a flat-rate consumption tax (which is neutral to the consumption–saving margin), uses part of the tax revenue for unproductive purposes, and rebates the rest equally across agents as a lump-sum transfer, the economy grows faster and improves the welfare of future generations.     

Using data envelopment analysis to quantify ILO objectives and identify policies conducive to decent work in a globalizing world

The International Labor Office, an arm of the UN based in Geneva, has as its goal the promotion of opportunities for women and men to obtain decent and productive work, in conditions of freedom, equity, security and human dignity. Since 1999, the ILO has conducted a series of studies of decent work. In 2001, the organization posed the global challenge of reducing the decent work deficit as measured by an employment gap, rights gap, a social protection gap, and a social dialogue gap. Using standard economic terms, “decent work” may be seen as an efficiency point along a generalized input-output function, dependent upon variables of both economic performance and economic and social policy. The decent work deficit of a given country (if any) is then obtained as the difference between an observed point and its projection on the efficiency frontier. Using data envelopment analysis (DEA), we fit a piecewise linear frontier to observations for 61 countries from all continents. Importantly, 27 of these countries lie on the decent work frontier; the remaining ones reveal conditions of decent work deficit. The possibilities of reducing such deficits by appropriate control of policy variables are discussed.     

全球化背景下中国行业间工资增长差异的演变及其原因

借助非竞争型投入产出模型,从国民经济投入产出系统的角度分析1987~2007年全球化背景下中国行业工资增长的差异及其原因。研究表明,1987~2007年我国资本密集型产业、劳动密集型产业、服务业的行业人均工资增长表现出极大的差异性。究其原因,在不同阶段国内消费、投资、出口、技术进步等因素对行业工资的不同拉动效应,是导致近年来中国行业间工资增长差异迅速扩大的重要原因。行业层面的结果分解表明,1997年以后驱动我国各行业人均工资增长的动力来源发生了根本变化,出口对我国第二产业、劳动密集型产业行业工资增长的贡献显著上升,而国内消费和国内投资对第一、三产业、资本密集型产业以及垄断性行业工资增长的贡献显著上升。     

Intermediated mode of internationalization: new software ventures in Ireland and India

This paper longitudinally examines the relationship between the career reasons of nascent entrepreneurs, their growth preferences and subsequent growth achieved. The longitudinal design allows for examination and control of both survivorship and recall bias upon career reason and growth linkages. Substantial recall bias was observed in the career reasons of entrepreneurs, with the reported importance of self-realization and financial success, as explanations for entering venturing activity, being significantly lower when responses were obtained once the venture was operational. Consistent with economic motives, the importance that the entrepreneur places on financial success was a key determinant to explain cross-sectional differences in growth preferences of the entrepreneur, the intended size of the venture, and achieved growth. Further, the importance of financial success was robust to the use of both prospective and retrospective career reasons. While independence was the most important factor to explain the career choices of nascent entrepreneurs, independence was also found to be negatively associated with intended and achieved employment growth. Overall, the findings demonstrate that nascent entrepreneur career reasons for self-employment are not homogeneous, vary by growth intentions and preferences, and are associated with subsequent venture growth achieved.     

中国省际区域经济差距演进及协调发展

实现区域协调发展是新时代中国区域高质量发展的必然要求。改革开放以来,中国省际区域经济差距经历了差距拉大—逐渐缩小—缓慢增大—逐渐缩小—维持不变的过程,逐步趋于收敛,其深层原因在于经济发展基础、资本投入、区域要素配置、区域要素使用和制度因素的地区异质性。推进区域经济协调发展,要不断加强对中西部地区的资本投入,优化资源配置,提高全要素生产率,提升开放水平,推进贸易高质量发展,完善与区域协调发展总体战略要求相适应的宏观区域政策和区域管理体制。     

A unified approach to validating univariate and multivariate conditional distribution models in time series

Modeling conditional distributions in time series has attracted increasing attention in economics and finance. We develop a new class of generalized Cramer–von Mises (GCM) specification tests for time series conditional distribution models using a novel approach, which embeds the empirical distribution function in a spectral framework. Our tests check a large number of lags and are therefore expected to be powerful against neglected dynamics at higher order lags, which is particularly useful for non-Markovian processes. Despite using a large number of lags, our tests do not suffer much from loss of a large number of degrees of freedom, because our approach naturally downweights higher order lags, which is consistent with the stylized fact that economic or financial markets are more affected by recent past events than by remote past events. Unlike the existing methods in the literature, the proposed GCM tests cover both univariate and multivariate conditional distribution models in a unified framework. They exploit the information in the joint conditional distribution of underlying economic processes. Moreover, a class of easy-to-interpret diagnostic procedures are supplemented to gauge possible sources of model misspecifications. Distinct from conventional CM and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) tests, which are also based on the empirical distribution function, our GCM test statistics follow a convenient asymptotic $N(0,1)$ distribution and enjoy the appealing “nuisance parameter free” property that parameter estimation uncertainty has no impact on the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics. Simulation studies show that the tests provide reliable inference for sample sizes often encountered in economics and finance.     

Work out or out of work — The labor market return to physical fitness and leisure sports activities

This study is the first to present evidence of the return to leisure sports in the job hiring process by sending fictitious applications to real job openings in the Swedish labor market. In the field experiment job applicants were randomly given different information about their type and level of leisure sports. Applicants who signaled sports skills had a significantly higher callback rate of about 2 percentage points, and this effect was about twice as large for physically demanding occupations.Additional evidence of a sports premium in the regular labor market is arrived at when analyzing the long-run impact of physical fitness on later labor market outcomes. The analysis uses register data on adult earnings and physical fitness when enlisting at age 18. The fitness premium, net of unobservable family variables, is in the order of 4-5%, but diminishes to 2% when controlling for non-cognitive skills.     

Efficiency,growth and market power in the banking industry: New approach to efficient structure hypothesis

We extend the work of Homma, Tsutsui, and Uchida (2014) to provide empirical evidence on nexus of relationships in efficient structure (ES) hypothesis. In this framework, we test causality from cost efficiency to bank growth and then from bank growth to market concentration. We apply this approach to banking industry in Association of South East Asian (ASEAN) over the period of 1999–2014. The efficiency scores have been estimated by employing Slack Based Measurements Data Envelopment Analysis (SMB DEA). We apply Two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Panel Vector Auto Regression (PVAR) to account for endogeneity in estimation models. The results show that cost efficiency enables the banks to grow and obtain higher market share. The resultant growth then leads to higher market concentration/bank market power. There is also some evidence to support for quiet life (QL) hypothesis. Therefore, both ES and QL hypotheses may coexist in ASEAN banking industry.     

Support for part-time work as a channel to female employment: the moderating effects of national gender empowerment and labour market conditions

Using a multi-source data set collected across eight European countries, this article examines how characteristics of both the organizational environment and the larger national context relate to the organizational-level variable of women's employment. Our study revealed that, in countries that were high in gender empowerment measure (GEM), establishments that were more supportive of part-time work options also employed a higher proportion of women. One reason for this relationship may be that in high-GEM countries offering part-time employment is a way for an organization to signal its support for work–life balance, something that makes it more attractive to women. In countries with low GEM, an establishment's greater support for part-time work was associated with employing a greater proportion of women only when establishments experienced recruitment difficulties. Key differences in gender empowerment between countries are discussed.     

The influence of seller learning and time constraints on sequential bargaining in an artificial perishable goods market

This paper investigates the formation of prices in a perishable goods market where agents bargain repeatedly through pair-wise interactions. After extensive field observations, we chose to focus on two aspects that seem important to actors of this market: the passage of time and update in judgement when gathering information. The main feature of the market is that a seller bargaining with a buyer has incomplete information about buyer's willingness to pay and is not sure how her trading partner will evaluate an offer or compare it with other options. On the other hand, buyers have limited time to look for goods and cannot meet all possible sellers before making a decision. Hence agents cannot calculate the best price to offer but receive information through limited interactions, and use this information to choose their actions.An agent-based model was built to represent a framework that mimics the observed market institution and where agent's possible behaviors and learning was made as consistent as possible with gathered data. Simulations were run, first for sensitivity analysis concerning main parameters, then to test the dependance of agents’ learning to (a) the time buyers can spend on the market and (b) the frequency of update in learning by sellers. To validate the model, features produced by the simulated market are compared to the stylized facts gathered for negotiation about four goods. We reproduce the main features of the data on the dynamics of offers, transaction prices and agents’ behavior during the bargaining phases.     

如何实现人力资源在企业中的合理配置与管理

随着我国经济的发展,原有计划经济时期的人力资源管理模式逐渐退出管理的舞台。在新的经济条件下,企业在改变人力资源的合理配置上面临很多难题。本文认真分析了当前企业人力资源配置现状,提出几点优化配置的建议。     

中国工业化、城镇化进程中的土地配置特征

基于已有的研究成果,通过系统的理论归纳与统计分析,提出了当前中国工业化、城镇化进程中土地资源配置的主要特征:第一,从部门配置角度看,表现为农业用地大规模非农化;第二,从产业配置的角度看,城乡用地结构快速转变;第三,从空间配置的角度看,土地利用的区域不均衡;第四,从功能配置的角度看,重经济效益轻生态效益。     

囚徒困境及其破解策略在日常工作中的应用举例

博弈论就是研究互动决策的理论,主要感兴趣的是其胜负主要取决于谋略智能的对抗性局势,而囚徒困境则博弈论中的经典模型之一。该模型深刻揭示了个人理性与集体理性的冲突。在囚徒困境中,每个人都会根据自己的利益做出决策,但是最后的结果却是集体遭殃。文章以博弈论中的经典模型"囚徒困境"为工具分析解剖日常生活工作中的若干热点和难点问题,并提出相应的破解策略。