中国经济之强劲增长：对东亚的寓意

中国的崛起对东亚经济产生了深刻影响。不仅中国在东北亚的近邻通过贸易和投资从中国的开放政策中获益，而且那些曾经与中国争夺国外直接投资（FDI）和出口市场的东盟国家也开始从中国的经济增长中得到好处。中国作为世界经济增长的发动机之一已经对其东亚邻国产生了积极影响。通过“东盟＋3”方案，特别是始于2002年的“中国-东盟”自由贸易协定，中国为东亚地区经济一体化提供了新的动力，从而为东亚经济增长发挥着日益重要的地缘政治和地缘经济作用。     

自由贸易的形成及其在东亚的发展趋势

2003年12月12日,日本与东盟10国发表了旨在加强日本与东盟各国经济、政治和安全关系的《东京宣言》和《行动计划》,并首次提出了建立东亚共同体的概念。这次峰会预示着日本同东盟的区域经济关系将出现新的飞跃,是东亚自由贸易区发展进程中值得关注的新动向。本文从区域经济一体化的类型入手,深入探讨了WTO框架下自由贸易区在全球的发展状况及其原因,指出日本对东亚区域经济合作战略和方针的调整是东亚自由贸易区发展进程中值得关注的新动向,对东亚经济一体化进程将产生深远影响。     

东盟+1:从"内部全球化"到"外部全球化"

本文首先在对全球化的历史和内涵进行界定的基础上引入了"内部全球化"与"外部全球化"的模式;其次,东盟被作为一个特例用于对"内部全球化"过程的验证;第三,通过对东亚国家拟形成东盟+3或建立东亚经济集团(EAEG)战略构想的分析,展示了从东盟到整个东亚的次区域"外部全球化"的进程;最后,本文提出了相关的结论,即"东盟+1"是实现东亚政治经济新格局和应对全球化在目前的现实选择.     

“东亚模式”的启迪与中国经济增长“结构之谜”的揭示

"东亚模式"经历了"结构性加速"与"结构性减速"的整个过程,"中国模式"与"东亚模式"是殊途同归,抑或是能够走出超越"东亚模式"的大国之路?本文基于"东亚模式"发展历程的整体评价,并结合中国现实,通过与"东亚模式"的代表性经济体——日本及"亚洲四小龙"在产业结构、人口结构、投资消费结构、外贸结构以及城乡收入结构上进行比较,透视中国经济的可行性空间。参照东亚国家和地区经济发展经验,本文使用中国地级市面板数据,针对中国经济增长的"结构之谜"通过算术平均法将五个经济结构指标合成为经济结构指数,合成的经济结构指数与经济增长呈现出"倒U"型曲线的关系,且东、中、西部城市分别处于"倒U"型曲线的不同阶段,形成一个大国"雁阵"模式,此外,五个经济结构单独对经济增长的影响也都不尽相同。     

经济相互依赖视角下中日与东盟经贸关系比较研究(1990-2011)——基于贸易和FDI数据的实证分析

经济相互依赖是当前东亚经济关系的重要特征之一.近20年来,中国和日本与东盟的经济相互依赖关系正在发生变化.本文就中日与东盟间的经济相互依赖发展态势、国别结构、贡献度三个方面进行比较分析,研究中日与东盟的经济相互依赖关系以及相互依赖关系中的“敏感性”和“脆弱性”问题,为中国参与东亚经济合作提供一些启示.     

世界经济的新格局与中国经济的长期增长前景

中国经济的下滑意味着中国经济增长进入了低速缓慢增长状态,这也是东亚新兴经济体和国际发达经济体经济发展的规律。在这种情况下,货币政策的刺激作用不能对经济增长产生明显的效果,货币的大量投入使用只会带来"信贷泡沫"和企业债台高筑的后果。     

泛珠三角经济圈与中国南向地缘战略——泛珠三角经济圈的地缘经济学分析

冷战结束后世界经济已由地缘政治时代两极化转向区域化、多极化、一体化混合成长互相影响的地缘经济时代。面对严峻的挑战,泛珠三角经济圈的构建与整合是实施中国南向战略的关键与前提之一,应高度重视泛珠三角经济圈的构建与整合。在地缘上,泛珠三角经济圈的构建将对环南海经济圈的经济合作,东亚走廊的形成,珠江大都会带的兴起及点轴开发形成的南向"桥头堡"效应,海洋经济发展产生深远的影响,完成中国南向地缘经济战略。     

中国与东盟的经济合作

建立“中国-东盟自由贸易区”，表明中国和东盟的经贸关系进入了一个新的发展阶段。它不仅符合双方的利益，而且对推动整个东亚区域经济合作，乃至世界经济的发展都将产生重要的影响。在双方的重视和努力下．经济合作的前景将无限光明。     

东亚奇迹的可持续性及其对中国的启示

关于东亚经济高增长的争论,国内外已有大量研究。本文指出关于东亚经济高增长争论很重要的在于经济高增长的"持续性",通过考察东亚各个国家和地区1985-2008年经济增长的实绩来验证争论各方的观点,最后指出中国从这场争论中可能得到的启示。     

从强度指数看中国与东盟的经济关系

本文运用进出口强度指数和投资强度指数分析了中国与东盟国家自90年代以来双边贸易投资关系.结果表明：中国与东盟双边贸易与投资紧密联系程度持续稳定上升;中国与东盟国家紧密经贸联系具有雄厚的物质基础,对东亚经济一体化进程具有推进作用.     

实际汇率与中国双边贸易

本文将中国与中国贸易伙伴国之间的实际汇率引入一个诱导的出口方程中,并加入中国出口的竞争者与中国的贸易伙伴国之间的实际汇率。结果表明,亚洲的一些主要国家和地区是中国出口的竞争者,1997年发生的亚洲金融危机确实使中国1998年和1999年的出口减少。除了海外市场需求和国内供给能力外,中国与贸易伙伴国之间的实际汇率,以及中国出口的竞争者与中国的贸易伙伴国之间的实际汇率对中国的双边贸易也有显著影响。     

The Economic Rise of China: Challenges and Opportunities for ASEAN

This paper looks at the economic rise of China and its impacts and implications for the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) region. The issues of complementarities and competitiveness of ASEAN and China in trade and investment and the opportunities and challenges arising from China's emergence and the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area are discussed. The message from China's emergence is clear and strong; it is that size does matter. To increase ASEAN competitiveness, the paper highlights the need for a deeper and more rapid economic integration of ASEAN in order to exploit scale economies. The important role of Japan in this process is highlighted. Finally the issue of ASEAN economic diversity is discussed. It is suggested that while ASEAN is fairly diverse, this should not be a critical stumbling block to a more rapid economic integration of ASEAN.     

The impact of Chinese monetary policy shocks on East and South‐East Asia1

We study the effects of Chinese monetary policy shocks on China's major trading partners in East and South‐East Asia by estimating structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models for six economies in the region. We find that a monetary expansion in Mainland China leads to an increase in real GDP (temporary) and the price level (permanent) in a number of economies in our sample, most notably in Hong Kong and the Philippines. The impact could result from intertemporal substitution present in a general equilibrium framework, which allows for positive domestic impacts of foreign monetary expansions. Our results emphasize the growing importance of China for its neighbouring economies and the significance of Chinese shocks for the design of monetary policy in Asian economies.     

EMPIRICS OF CHINA'S OUTWARD DIRECT INVESTMENT

Abstract.  We investigate the empirical determinants of China's outward direct investment (ODI). It is found that China's investments in developed and developing countries are driven by different sets of factors. Subject to the differences between developed and developing countries, there is evidence that: (i) both market-seeking and resource-seeking motives drive China's ODI; (ii) Chinese exports to developing countries induce China's ODI; (iii) China's international reserves promote its ODI; and (iv) Chinese capital tends to agglomerate among developed economies but diversify among developing economies. Similar results are obtained using alternative ODI data. We do not find substantial evidence that China invests in African and oil-producing countries mainly for their natural resources.     

The Information Society: Implications for Economic Institutions and Market Theory

The extraordinary growth and reduction in inequalities achieved between the mid-1960s and mid-1990s by the High Performing Asian Economies (HPAEs) — namely Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan (collectively called "the four tigers"), Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand — has been discussed at great length in the economic literature. However, no clear explanation has been suggested for the poor performance of other Asian economies, like India, which share the HPAEs geographical proximity and similar economic structures. This paper shows that the stark contrast between the high growth rates and declining income inequalities of HPAEs on one side, and low growth rates and stable (or rising) income inequalities of India and other Asian countries on the other side, may at least in part be explained by the different role that human capital has played in those economies between the mid-1960s and mid-1990s.     

Economic Convergence in Seven Asian Economies

The impressive economic growth in a select group of Asian economies in the last several decades prompts some to argue that authoritarianism helps rapid economic growth while democracy hampers it. In this paper, we used the panel data approach to test this hypothesis for seven Asian economies, including South Korea, Singapore, and China. Our results reject the strong version of this hypothesis but fail to reject the weak version of it. Specifically, we found insignificant impacts of political freedom but significant effects of economic freedom on advancing economic convergence in these economies.     

MEASURING THE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES: SOME LESSONS FROM CHINESE EXPERIENCE

This article quantifies the comparative performance of China in several dimensions. Firstly, it shows that China's move from a command to a market economy was less abrupt and more successful than that of 29 other economies making a similar transition. Secondly, while official estimates show annual GDP growth of 9.6 percent in 1978–2003, this is reduced to 7.9 percent after adjustment for exaggeration of industrial performance and growth in non-material services. Thirdly, as the exchange rate understates China's achievement, a purchasing power parity (PPP) converter is necessary to measure comparative level of performance. Our PPP converter shows that China in 2005 was the world's second largest economy, with a GDP about 80 percent of the U.S. It is assumed that China will have overtaken the U.S. as the world's biggest economy before 2015. Until recently, the World Bank estimate of the PPP for China was close to that of Maddison, but the Bank's new estimate for 2005 shows Chinese GDP about half this level. The Bank's new estimates for China and other Asian countries are not plausible, and this paper advances several reasons for rejecting them. Finally, energy use per head of population is a good deal smaller than that of the U.S., and its total energy use for a much bigger population is likely to be somewhat smaller than that of the U.S. in 2030. However, heavy dependence on dirty coal means that it will have bigger carbon emissions than the U.S. This is a major problem as Beijing and other big cities already have severe pollution problems.     

The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin

Before the crisis of 1997/98, the East Asian economies—except for Japan but including China—pegged their currencies to the US dollar. To avoid further turmoil, the IMF argues that these currencies should float more freely. However, the authors’ econometric estimations show that the dollar's predominant weight in East Asian currency baskets has returned to its pre‐crisis levels. By 2002, the day‐to‐day volatility of each country's exchange rate against the dollar had again become negligible. Most governments were rapidly accumulating a “war chest” of official dollar reserves, which portends that this exchange rate stabilization will come to extend over months or quarters. From the doctrine of “original sin” applied to emerging‐market economies, the authors argue that this fear of floating is entirely rational from the perspective of each individual country. And their joint pegging to the dollar benefits the East Asian dollar bloc as a whole, although Japan remains an important outlier.     

中国国际分工地位的再评估?--基于出口技术复杂度与国内增加值双重视角的分析

合理地评估当前中国的国际分工地位是判断中国的出口优势与劣势以及提升中国的国际分工地位的重要依据。文章将出口技术复杂度和国内增加值率结合起来,构建了同时具有产品属性和增加值属性的国际分工地位新指标,并基于投入产出框架构建了理解国际分工地位差异的理论模型,进而对中国的国际分工地位进行了再评估。结果表明：(1)考虑服务业出口后,目前中国的国际分工地位处于最为落后的经济体行列,亚洲新兴经济体的国际分工地位普遍不高,发达经济体和资源丰富的经济体拥有较高的国际分工地位。(2)1995-2009年中国与美国、印度和巴西之间的分工地位差距有所扩大,与德国之间的分工地位差距比较稳定,而与日本之间的分工地位差距则有所缩小。(3)结构分解的分析显示,中国国际分工地位落后的主要原因是出口结构问题,即服务业出口比重过低,而国内增加值率的降低也在发挥越来越重要的影响。(4)中国国际分工地位指数的变动主要源于产业属性效应和国内增加值效应,而出口结构效应的影响则较低。因此,调整出口结构和提升国内增加值率是中国未来提升国际分工地位的两种重要方式。     

Booming or emerging? China's technological capability and international collaboration in patent activities

China's economy and technology have experienced astounding growth in the last two decades. The OECD 2005 reports show that China has overtaken the USA to become the world's largest exporter of information and communications technology goods. In order to assess the progress China has made in technology development, this study examines the inventive activities in China and the pattern of international collaborations between China and other major industrialized countries or regions. This study analyzes the patent data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) focusing on joint patent application between China and the eight most inventive OECD countries and two Asian economic entities (South Korea and Taiwan). The results reveal increasing collaborations in inventive activities between China and other major inventive countries over the past decade, and suggest that China's technology capability may have begun to boom along with its fast economic growth.