产出不确定,信息不对称与双重危机发生机制

本文构造了一个具有银行部门和消费—生产者微观基础的一般均衡模型,分析了新兴市场国家双重危机的发生机制。本文发现,下列条件可以引发双重金融危机:(1)一部分外国存款人在中期获得了关于东道国未来产出或币值的糟糕信号;(2)本国居民对未来产出或币值的不利信号反应过度而不再追加投资;(3)居民由于"动物情绪"不再追加投资。     

货币危机与银行危机共生因子实证分析——国别比较的视角

共生危机的事实表明,货币危机与银行危机共生的现象在不同类型的国家均可能出现,而非某一类国家所特有的现象.基于对共生性货币银行危机触发机制国别差异的考察,文章在对1980～2006年间60个国家共生危机发生情况识别的基础上,分别构建了工业化国家和发展中国家共生危机生成的逐步Logistic回归模型.研究表明,工业化国家的共生危机主要是经济中各类矛盾累积的结果,发展中国家则主要源于本国制度缺陷,而采用滞后一期的变量来解释工业化国家共生危机时,效果不显著.     

货币错配与银行危机和货币危机

货币错配是新兴市场在经济全球化过程中所无法避免的问题,它具有净外币负债和净外币资产两种表现形式.在新兴市场中,只要其银行体系存在大规模的货币错配,不管表现为哪一种形式,都会增加其金融体系的脆弱性;而且在宏观或微观经济基本面恶化的情况下,可能引发银行危机甚至是货币危机.此外,当出现不利冲击时,银行体系中存在货币错配将会导致其资产和负债的期限错配进一步恶化.     

我国通货紧缩持续的信息经济学解释

当前我国通货紧缩仍在持续，表现为价格持续下跌，失业率上升及经济增速放慢（低于潜在产出水平）。通货紧缩为何长期持续，目前尚缺乏深入的理论研究。本试图用信息经济学理论，通过分析劳动、商品和资本市场微观行为，认为：通货紧缩时期在劳动、商品和资本市场上，因信息不对称和信息不完全会导致市场机制失灵，从而加剧了宏观经济波动的深度。劳动力市场上效率工资的存在造成失业增加，工资成本反而下降；高等教育普及使原有凭结构的信号传送功能弱化，迫使人们追求更高学历层次，并为之增加储蓄，减少了即期需求；商品市场上厂商之间博弈会形成折弯的需求曲线和价格粘性；信贷市场由于银行风险厌恶程度增加，信贷配给更加严重，债券市场因代理人问题出现萎缩；中小企业融资也因各层级资本市场的信息披露程度差异，形成低层级融资均衡，所有这些都会导致投融资不足。     

货币危机理论评述

当代国际金融危机主要表现为区域性和全球性的货币危机。本文对三代货币危机理论模型进行比较 ,分析其特点、意义和缺陷 ,并总结了国际主流经济学研究货币危机的基本思路。指出未来货币危机理论模型可能的研究方向。     

银行危机过程中的道德风险及其对银行危机成本的影响

本文从理论和实证的角度分析了处于危机状态的银行，为什么会产生严重的道德风险问题，以及道德风险是如何影响危机处理成本的，并提出我国中小金融体系重建必须重视先从根本上克服存在的问题。     

现代商业银行的危机管理

商业银行危机是商业银行因内、外环境因素所引起的一种对商业银行生存具有即刻且严重威胁性的情境或事件。国际货币基金组织在1998年5月出版的《世界经济展望》中曾将银行危机定义为:实际或潜在的银行挤兑与银行失败引起银行停止偿还负债或为防止此情况的出现,政府被迫大规模提供援助的一种情况。     

货币危机和银行危机对宏观经济影响的分析

金融危机包括货币危机和银行危机,文章分别定义了货币危机和银行危机,指出货币危机产生的原因,银行危机对宏观经济的影响表现为三个方面:货币供给量、产出水平和失业率以及财政收入;货币危机对宏观经济影响表现为:经济增长率、通货膨胀率和利率水平。     

银行危机中的消费者、银行、企业之间的博弈行为分析

参与银行借贷活动的主体从自身利益的角度出发决定自己的行为。国外消费者为了达到效用最大化决定消费和存款行为;银行为了达到利润最大化尽可能选择利润高的项目;企业也会在还款和违约之间按成本最小的原则作出决定。参与主体之间的这些行为会加大银行风险,加速资本外逃,引发银行危机。随着银行危机的发生、资本的外逃,本币会大幅度贬值,酿成货币危机。     

不完全信息与银行信贷风险

不完全信息与银行信贷风险●石东平欧阳红兵一、引言近年来,我国银行体系由于改革滞后成了经济生活中主要的风险承担者,银行体系的风险又集中于信贷风险。据统计,我国国有银行系统不良信贷资产到１９９６年底已超过１万亿元,占银行体系总资产的２０％以上,我国四大专...     

THE EAST ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS: CAUSES AND LESSONS

Financial deregulation and capital-account liberalization preceded speculative currency attacks in Thailand. A combination of de facto fixed exchange rates and high rates of interest generated excessive capital inflows, which led to too much liquidity chasing bad investments. The under-supervised and over-guaranteed financial sector extended loans excessively, particularly for non-productive, speculative purposes. Non-transparent practices, in the form of weak disclosure of institutions' true balance sheets and insider relations, masked these poor investments. The buildup of short-term, unhedged debt left East Asian economies vulnerable to a sudden collapse of confidence. Currency attacks ran down official foreign exchange reserves. Rapid capital outflows and the consequent depreciation of currencies exacerbated the strains on private sector balance sheets. The policy lessons are to (i) use macroeconomic policy to avoid excessive capital inflows and currency overvaluation, (ii) strengthen the financial system, with proper disclosure and accounting requirements, stringent loan classification and provisioning rules, and capital adequacy requirements, prior to capital-account liberalization, (iii) stabilize exchange rates based on currency baskets that reflect trade and investment linkages, and (iv) develop regional. financial cooperation with regional surveillance and peer pressure to maintain policy discipline.     

A NOTE ON COMPUTATION OF THE DOUBLE-HURDLE MODEL WITH DEPENDENCE WITH AN APPLICATION TO TOBACCO EXPENDITURE

This note shows how the sample likelihood of the full double-hurdle model with dependence can be reformulated to allow estimation with standard econometric software. An illustrative example is provided, using data on tobacco expenditure by households in the 1984 UK Family Expenditure Survey.     

FACTOR ACCUMULATION AND THE TERMS OF TRADE: APPLICATIONS TO THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

Abstract.  This paper investigates the effects of population growth and capital accumulation on trade and welfare. In the absence of a terms of trade effect, an population increase reduces the standard of living and causes a reduction in welfare. An increase in population causes deterioration in the terms of trade of a labour abundant country, whereas capital accumulation improves them, regardless of the source of growth. Moreover, an increase in the South's population is immiserizing.     

非参数成本前沿模型与中国工业增长模式研究

本文创建了面板数据下的非参数成本前沿模型框架,对转轨期间中国大中型工业的成本变化进行分解与分析。研究发现经济全球化、FDI、产权变革和有序竞争促进中国工业的前沿技术进步和资源配置效率提高,推动中国工业增长由粗放型向集约型转变。同时,行业间日益加大的技术效率差距已经对增长模式转变构成挑战。     

A HYBRID DISCRETE CHOICE MODEL OF DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCT DEMAND WITH AN APPLICATION TO PERSONAL COMPUTERS

In this article, I consider a new discrete choice model of differentiated product demand that distinguishes a brand‐level differentiation from a product‐level differentiation. The model is a hybrid of the random coefficient logit model of Berry et al. (Econometrica 63 (1995), 841–90) and the pure characteristics model of Berry and Pakes (International Economic Review 48 (2007), 1193–1225) and describes markets where firms offer multiple products of different qualities under the same brand name. I compare the hybrid model with existing models using data on personal computers. Using the estimates of the hybrid model, I also provide empirical evidence that firms reposition their brands in a postmerger market.     

TESTING FOR PRO-POORNESS OF GROWTH, WITH AN APPLICATION TO MEXICO

This paper proposes techniques to test for whether growth has been pro-poor. We first review different definitions of pro-poorness and argue for the use of methods that can generate results that are robust over classes of pro-poor measures and ranges of poverty lines. We then provide statistical procedures that rely on the use of sample data to infer whether growth has been pro-poor in a population. We apply these procedures to Mexican household surveys for 1992, 1998, and 2004. We find strong normative and statistical evidence that Mexican growth has been absolutely anti-poor between 1992 and 1998, absolutely pro-poor between 1998 and 2004 and between 1992 and 2004, and relatively pro-poor between 1992 and 2004 and between 1998 and 2004. The relative assessment of the period between 1992 and 1998 is statistically too weak to lead to a robust evaluation of that period.     

TESTING FOR PRO-POORNESS OF GROWTH, WITH AN APPLICATION TO MEXICO

This paper proposes techniques to test for whether growth has been pro-poor. We first review different definitions of pro-poorness and argue for the use of methods that can generate results that are robust over classes of pro-poor measures and ranges of poverty lines. We then provide statistical procedures that rely on the use of sample data to infer whether growth has been pro-poor in a population. We apply these procedures to Mexican household surveys for 1992, 1998, and 2004. We find strong normative and statistical evidence that Mexican growth has been absolutely anti-poor between 1992 and 1998, absolutely pro-poor between 1998 and 2004 and between 1992 and 2004, and relatively pro-poor between 1992 and 2004 and between 1998 and 2004. The relative assessment of the period between 1992 and 1998 is statistically too weak to lead to a robust evaluation of that period.     

危机转移视角下的金融危机解读

传统的危机态主要是以产能危机为核心特质的危机形态;而现代的危机态则是以信用危机为核心特质的危机形态。这两种危机态在发生机制、传导机制等方面存在着本质上的差异,这使得经典的危机"中心—边缘"结构假说在解释此次美国金融危机时陷入了理论困惑,但两种危机态的"中心—边缘"危机转移规律是不变的。我国应当在世界金融体系不断解构与升级的进程中准确地定位,加强监管,防范风险,从金融制度、金融工具乃至产业发展等方面采取积极有效的策略加以应对。