中国近代的经济增长和中长周期波动

从鸦片战争到全国解放的历史时期，中国经济发展总体状况如何?一百余年间，中国经济增长的速度是快还是慢?这一百余年的经济史如何划分阶段?本文利用可以找到的中国近代经济统计资料，运用数理分析方法对中国经济近代化的程度、发展状况进行度量和分析，以回答上述问题。本文的研究始于19世纪80年代，止于20世纪30年代中期，由中国近代的经济增长；中国近代经济发展的中长周期波动；中国近代经济增长的总趋势与发展阶段三个部分组成。     

中日韩经济发展阶段比较

中日韩三国同处东亚经济圈,有着大致类似的经济发展经历,比较日本、韩国和中国三国发展阶段,有助于更好的理解和预测中国经济发展趋势.本文从人均GDP、产业结构和经济增长速度三个方面比较了中日韩三国经济发展阶段,可以发现日本一直是东亚地区的领先国家,而随着韩国和中国经济发展两国与日本的差距逐渐缩小.特别是通过三国经济发展阶段的层次分析法,明显可以看出日本经济发展自20世纪90年代以来一直呈现增长乏力的态势,而韩国,特别是中国近年来经济发展势头更加迅猛.     

中国租赁业：创新与发展—访中国外商投资企业协会租赁业委员会会长姜仲勤

记者:中国现有租赁机构有哪些?发展状况如何? 姜:我国租赁行业从一开始就分为两类机构,类是中外合资租赁公司,另一类则是中资融资租赁公司.在这两类公司中,中外合资的租赁公司以引进外资为动机,比较符合我国20世纪80年代经济发展状况,业务开展比较顺利,而中资的租赁公司发展较为困难.赁资产占总资产的29%.     

马克思主义经济学同中国实际愈益结合的一百年

马克思主义经济肇始于１９世纪４０年代,成熟于６０年代至７０年代。直至２０世纪,它才逐渐传播到中国来,纵观一个世纪以来,马克思主义学在中国的传播和发展,就是它同中国社会经济愈益结合,理论上不断发展创新,并在实践中不断取得伟大胜利的一百年。 中国传播和发展的历程是：２０世纪开头２０多年,特别是在新文化运动、五四运动和中国共产党创立时期,是它在中国传播的初始阶段。后它在中国的传播不断深入,与马克思主义同     

主编寄语

<正>送走2019年,迎来2020年。《经济研究》与经济理论界同仁共同迎来21世纪20年代,我们共同步入21世纪又一个新的十年。这个新年代的开局之年,又是我国全面建成小康社会和国家"十三五"规划的收官之年,这注定2020年是中国经济发展中的不平凡之年。当今世界正处于百年未有之大变局,国际政治经济形势波谲云诡。虽然我国发展环境仍处于战略机遇期,但充满挑战和风险,经济发展环境的不确定性不断增大。从国内看,伴随着我国工业化进程从中期步入到后期,我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,正处在转变发展方式、优化经济结构、转换经济增长动力的攻关期。我国经济发展中的结构性矛盾依然还十分突出,经济下行压     

从全要素生产率增长看经济增长方式的变化

中国全要素生产率增长的变化主要经历了三个阶段.20世纪80年代的波动增长期,90年代的稳定发展期和2000年以后的下降恢复期.就各要素对经济增长的贡献来说,资本投入的贡献是推动中国经济增长的主要动力,平均占到46.90%;劳动投入的贡献较为稳定,但水平相对较低,只有17.36%;全要素生产率的贡献平均维持在35.75%的水平.因此,从整体来看,中国经济增长的方式仍然没有摆脱效率较低的粗放型增长,但其趋势是向着集约型增长发展.     

论小城镇推动型的经济增长模式

目前中国经济增长的状况如何?根据钱纳里在大国模型中提出的标准,考虑中国具体国情。我们至少可以推断出中国经济增长实际已经进入了工业化实现,即“起飞阶段”。理由如下:(1)中国人均收入已接近一般国家在工业化实现初期所达到的水平。到九十年代初中国经济增长已完成工业化准备阶段,开始向工业化发展的第二阶段起步(人均GNP560-1120美元,1970年美元)。     

换挡期成因分析

中国经济增长速度换挡的原因既有前期刺激经济力度过大的因素,也有客观经济发展因素。如何防范和化解换挡期的风险挑战将是摆在中国未来5-10年的重大课题。当前,中国经济正处在增长速度换挡期,即由前些年9%以上的高增长,换挡到7%-8%的中速增长阶段。要搞清楚中国经济增长换挡期是怎么来的,首先就必须搞清楚2001年以来中国经济经历了哪三个发展阶段?2009年-2010年支撑中国经济9%以上高速增长的主要因素是什么?2012年-2014年中国经济增长速度换挡的原因是什么?接下来才能搞清楚经济增长速度换挡之后将面临哪些可能的风险挑战,如何防范和化解这些风险挑战将是摆在中国未来5-10年的重大课题。     

苏南经济发展的历史考察

内容改革开放以来,以苏南模式为基本特征的苏南经济主要经历了三个发展阶段:一是20世纪70年代至80年代中后期的“苏南模式”孕育与形成阶段;二是从20世纪80年代后期到90年代中后期乡镇企业产权改制及大规模引进外资阶段;三是进入2l世纪后的新经济格局形成阶段。本文对苏南经济发展中的成功经验与教训及当前的经济格局进行了初步剖析。     

对发展经济学三个发展阶段的解析

发展是经济和社会进步的主题,诞生于二次世界大战结束后的20世纪40年代的发展经济学,是研究发展中国家经济发展与经济增长问题的经济学。发展经济学至今经历了结构主义、新古典主义、新古典政治经济学三个阶段。     

Growth and welfare effects of business cycles in economies with idiosyncratic human capital risk

This paper uses a tractable macroeconomic model with idiosyncratic human capital risk and incomplete markets to analyze the growth and welfare effects of business cycles. The analysis is based on the assumption that the elimination of business cycles eliminates the variation in idiosyncratic risk. The paper shows that a reduction in the variation in idiosyncratic risk decreases the ratio of physical to human capital and increases the total investment return and welfare. If the degree of risk aversion is less than or equal to one, then economic growth is enhanced. This paper also provides a quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic effects of business cycles based on a calibrated version of the model. Even for relatively small degrees of risk aversion (around one) the model implies that the elimination of business cycles has substantial effects on investment in physical and human capital, economic growth, and welfare.     

On the importance of institutions and forms of organisation in Piero Sraffa's economics: the case of business cycles,money, and economic policy

Abstract

This paper is based on an investigation of the Sraffa Archives and tries to characterise Piero Sraffa's approach to business cycles and economic policy. It includes two parts. The first part of the paper shows the importance of economic institutions and social conventions in Sraffa's contribution to economics and their relation with social conflicts. The second part of the paper shows how this importance permits to understand better business cycles and economic policy but also indirectly contributes to a re-interpretation of Sraffa's contribution to economics.     

Border region commercial electricity demand

Border region electric utilities face unique circumstances in attempting to assess overall business and load demand conditions. These result from the many business cycle conditions facing these entities as a consequence of operating near international political boundaries. Can international economic fluctuations be systematically incorporated into electricity demand models? Along the U.S.-Mexico border, this problem is further complicated by economic interactions between an advanced economy and a developing country where data constraints exist at the regional level of disaggregation. Transfer function autoregressive moving average analysis is utilized to examine whether commercial electricity sales in El Paso, Texas respond to the national and metropolitan business cycles affecting economic performance in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua. Together, these cities form one of the largest international metropolitan areas in the world. This provides a logical starting point when considering the questions raised in this paper.     

BUSINESS CYCLES AND RACIAL DISPARITIES IN PUNISHMENT

Deeply rooted historical patterns allow us to make a correlation between imprisonment and unemployment and the marginalization of blacks. This paper examines the interrelationships among criminal activity, punishment, and cycles of the economic system based on the influence of political and economic forces on forming penal policies. The penal system is viewed as a device by which labor market fluctuations can be regulated. We examine differences between blacks and whites and between the North and the South to arrive at this paper's thesis: that race provides the link among economic cycles, employment, and crime.     

The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro‐Cyclicality

This study takes a fresh look at the nature of financial and real business cycles in OECD countries using annual data series and shorter quarterly economic indicators. It first analyses whether the last cycle has been different compared to previous cycles in terms of length, amplitude, asymmetry and changes of these parameters during expansions and contractions. We also study the degree of economic and financial cycle synchronization between OECD countries but also of economic and financial variables within a given country and gauge the extent to which cycle synchronization changed over time. We next describe the connection between the great moderation and the last cycle. Finally, the study discusses the synchronization between the real economy and the financial sector and provides some new evidence on the banking sector's pro‐cyclicality by using aggregate and bank level. The main findings show that the amplitude of the real business cycle was becoming smaller during the great moderation, but asset price cycles were becoming more volatile. In part, this was linked to developments in the banking sector which tended to accentuate pro‐cyclical behaviour. Greater synchronization of cycles may help explain the severity of the crisis.     

Tear down this wall: on the persistence of borders in trade

Abstract Why do borders still matter for economic activity? The reunification of Germany in 1990 provides a unique natural experiment for examining the effect of political borders on trade. With the fall of the Berlin Wall and the rapid formation of a political and economic union, strong and strictly enforced administrative barriers to trade between East Germany and West Germany were eliminated completely within a very short period of time. Remarkable persistence in intra‐German trade patterns along the former East‐West border suggests that border effects are neither statistical artefacts nor driven by administrative barriers to trade, but arise from economic fundamentals.     

Transparency and currency crises

The role transparency plays in the prevention of currency crises is widely acknowledged. Nevertheless, the relationship between transparency and currency crises has rarely been subjected to systematic cross‐national scrutiny. This paper attempts to explore the effect of transparency on currency crises by focusing on a specific dimension of transparency: the public dissemination of aggregate economic data by governments. My analysis provides strong evidence that greater transparency is associated with a lower likelihood of currency crises, regardless of economic conditions. When I add economic and political determinants of currency crises, the estimate of transparency remains unaltered in magnitude or statistical significance.     

Matching Economic Development Policy to the Local Context: Must We?

This paper examines 2013 data on high-tech manufacturing employment across metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. The purpose is to discover how a broad set of social/demographic/economic variables relate to varying densities of high-tech manufacturing employment. Two questions are asked: Do social and industrial circumstances evolve together, as suggested by institutionalist theories? Is there any evidence to suggest that economic development policy is likely to be effective at creating the conditions that might invite local development of high-tech manufacturing?     

中国经济的东西差距及其协调对策

我国东西经济差距由来已久，改革开放后经济差距的持续扩大又一次引起人们关注。本文分析了东西差距的动态变化及发展趋势，对东西差距进行了正反两方面评价，并提出了协调对策，认为东西差距的扩大还将持续下去，经济差距伴随经济快速增长而生，地区倾斜是其成因之一，区域经济发展应树立“效益优先，兼顾公平”的原则，把地区倾斜与产业倾斜有机结合起来，完善支持落后地区的政策体系。     

Business cycles in a two-sector model of endogenous growth

Summary. This paper analyzes the impact of cyclical volatility on long-term economic growth: does growth increase or decrease with increased cyclical volatility? We construct a stochastic two-sector model of endogenous growth to analyze this question in detail. We will show that economic growth is higher in the presence of business cycles, since people devote more time to learning activities in an uncertain economic environment. Human capital is a hedge against future income uncertainty. Hence, the rate of economic growth will be higher in a stochastic environment. Based on a calibration of the model, we find that economic growth increases by 0.46%-point as a result of observed business cycle variability. When account is taken of the interaction between the model's general equilibrium and the cycle, welfare gains (measured in units of a permanent percentage increase in consumption) from eliminating business cycle volatility are approximately 1.87%. Received: January 25, 2000; revised version: November 3, 2000