RESPONSES OF ECONOMIC SYSTEMS TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE: PAST EXPERIENCES

Current discussions of climate change are overly focused on the science underpinning environmental impact, with little attention to socioeconomic consequences. The economics of environmental change in particular is insufficiently informed by the lessons that past experiences can yield. Drawing on case studies from Europe and Asia, this special issue underlines the importance of historical context, as well as markets, institutions, technology, and the role of international trade in understanding how economic systems have responded to environmental changes. Past economies have responded dynamically to environmental change rather than simply constrained deterministically by the climatic and ecological events that have engulfed them.     

'THE LAW OF STORMS': EUROPEAN AND INDIGENOUS RESPONSES TO NATURAL DISASTERS IN COLONIAL INDIA, c. 1800–1850

Focusing on collective response to storms and floods in early colonial India, the paper explores obstacles to successful disaster response with one example related to meteorology of cyclones and the other the use of embankments. In both these examples, there was an attempt to build public-private partnerships, which succeeded in the case of weather prediction and failed in river embankment. The failure is explained by two factors. Coordination and contracting were costly when the private partners had variable capacities and interests. Furthermore, whereas meteorology predicted nature, embankments interfered with nature, an intervention which carried social and economic costs.     

NATURE, MARKETS AND STATE RESPONSE: THE DROUGHT OF 1939 IN JAPAN AND KOREA

Large areas of Northeast Asia experienced drought in 1939. Agricultural production in Korea decreased significantly, but the drought did not cause famine in Japan despite its dependence on rice imports from Korea. The paper analyses the impact of the 1939 drought on the markets for rice and electricity in Japan. The authorities were ill-prepared for such a disaster but willing to use it for the purpose of covering for other problems. The drought thus accelerated the move of Japan's economic system towards a managed economy. A lower total rainfall in Japan in 1940 did not generate similar problems, suggesting that the broader political, economic, and social context is crucial to the identification of short-term climatic fluctuations as crises.     

RAINFALL, THE MÉLINE TARIFF, AND WHEAT PRODUCTION IN MEDITERRANEAN FRANCE, 1885–1914

Wheat production stagnated in France during the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, while cultivated acreage and wheat output declined sharply around the Mediterranean from the 1870s. Wheat output never recovered in this region despite the introduction in 1885 of tariff measures, such as the 1892 Méline Tariff. This paper analyses the response of Mediterranean wheat growers to changes in local rainfall and to variations of the duty on imported grains. It uses regional level data for nine administrative divisions located on or near the Mediterranean and assesses the impact of rainfall on yields. It argues that an interplay of protectionist policies and environmental conditions explain the decline of wheat production.     

THE GRAPE PHYLLOXERA PLAGUE AS A NATURAL EXPERIMENT: THE UPKEEP OF VINEYARDS IN CATALONIA (SPAIN), 1858–1935

This paper analyses the impact in Catalonia of the grape Phylloxera plague in Europe (1865–90). A statistical model is used to analyse the economic resilience of 35 districts in Catalonia to this external ecological and economic shock, and to explain why districts in the provinces of Barcelona and Tarragona resumed growing wine grapes after the plague, in contrast to districts in Girona and Lleida provinces. The opportunity cost of labour, the demand pull of Barcelona's commercial growth, and the agro-climatic suitability of land for growing grapes are used to explain the differing capacities of districts to endure the Phylloxera plague in Catalonia.     

INTENSIFICATION OF RAINFED LOWLAND RICE PRODUCTION IN WEST AFRICA: PRESENT STATUS AND POTENTIAL GREEN REVOLUTION

The objective of the current paper is to explore the factors influencing the expansion and intensification of rice production in rainfed lowland sites. The village/lowland‐level data show the following: (1) the expansion of lowland rice cultivation has been driven by population pressure and accessibility to the market; and (2) the adoption of water control technologies is enhanced by the existence of immigrants and accessibility to the market. Rice cultivator data show that investment in water supply canals is influenced by land tenure security and that the canals enhance yield. This suggests that investment in water control technologies in rainfed lowland is necessary to realize a rice Green Revolution. Considering the fairly high average yield already achieved with water control technologies and the vast area of lowlands without water control technologies in rural area, there is a high potential of a rice Green Revolution in rainfed lowland in West Africa.     

THE IMPACT OF GREEN REVOLUTION ON RICE PRODUCTION IN VIETNAM

The current paper reviewed the development of the Green Revolution in Vietnam, using long‐term regional yield and modern variety adoption statistics, as well as household data collected in 1996 and 2003. The present study indicates that the Green Revolution began in irrigated favorable areas and spread to the less favorable areas in Vietnam such as in other Asian countries. What is unique in Vietnam is that although the Green Revolution ended in the mid‐1980s in the Philippines and Indonesia, it has still been sustained as of 2003. Our analyses revealed that such growth had been supported by continuous improvements of modern varieties by regional research institutes. The varieties imported from China have contributed to the Green Revolution in northern Vietnam and those developed by the International Rice Research Institute in southern Vietnam. The national agricultural research systems have also played a critically important role in developing location‐specific and appropriate technologies.     

REVISITING INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT AND SEGMENTATION IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN LABOUR MARKET

This study revisits the definition of informal employment, and it investigates the puzzle of high open unemployment co‐existing with relatively limited informal employment in South Africa. We estimate earnings equations using data from the September 2004 Labour Force Survey and present evidence of persistent earnings differentials not only between formal and informal employment, but also between types of informal employment. These persistent earnings differentials are suggestive of complex segmentation in the South African labour market and challenge the presentation of informal employment as an undifferentiated residual with no barriers to entry or mobility.     

PARTICIPATORY RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN 1930s JAPAN: THE ECONOMIC REHABILITATION MOVEMENT

This paper studies an early participatory rural development program implemented during the 1930s in Japan. This program selected several villages each year to draft and implement their own original development plans. I discuss the implications of the features of the program on its effectiveness. A detailed baseline survey conducted by the villagers themselves helped them to objectively diagnose their economic situations and understand their issues. The plans defined clear numerical targets, allowing them to share goals and monitor progress. The implementation of the plan was reinforced by frequent communication and monitoring among neighbors and by an incentive scheme that involved competition within a village. I use a village‐level panel dataset from Hyogo Prefecture to examine the effects, under the difference‐in‐differences strategy. I find suggestive evidence that the program helped foster the adoption of cattle raising and diversify agricultural production.     

COLLECTIVE ACTION IN SMALLHOLDER ORGANIC FARMING: A STUDY OF THE EZEMVELO FARMERS' ORGANIZATION IN KWAZULU-NATAL

This study analyses the Ezemvelo Farmers' Organisation (EFO), a certified organic smallholder group in KwaZulu‐Natal province (South Africa), as an institution to improve smallholder access to a niche market by reducing unit production and transaction costs in the supply chain. Using a multinomial logit model, results suggest that EFO is more likely to survive if it continues to secure fully subsidised information, transport, fencing, and certification services for its members, and if it improves the benefits of participating by synchronising harvest and delivery dates, negotiating price discounts for organic inputs, and by maintaining an office with telephone, fax and postal services.     

AID AND DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA: THE DEBATE, THE CHALLENGES AND THE WAY FORWARD

The article discusses the emerging literature and debates on aid, within the context of expected increases in aid flows to the continent. The trends in ODA flows indicate a reversal in aid flows to the continent since 2000, with subsequent increases in aid intensity and dependence. Although the more recent literature on aid is doubtful if aid only spurs growth in a in a good policy environment, the aid‐institutional debate indicates a clear aid‐institutional paradox, especially relating to the macroeconomic effects, the fiscal response, the absorptive capacity and the good governance aid debates. The literature further indicates that aid could serve as a barrier to vulnerable societies. From the donors' perspective, it is evident that quantity of aid does not imply quality and that the ultimate responsibility lies with recipient governments to ensure more efficient absorption of aid.     

EXPLOITING MARINE WILDLIFE IN QUEENSLAND: THE COMMERCIAL DUGONG AND MARINE TURTLE FISHERIES, 1847–1969

The historical exploitation of marine resources in Queensland has only been partially documented. In particular, the history of the commercial fishing of dugongs and marine turtles has received comparatively little scholarly attention. Since European settlement in Queensland, various human activities have exploited these resources. We present documentary and oral history evidence of the scale of those industries. Based on extensive archival and oral history research, we argue that diverse fishing practices occurred and that the sustained exploitation of dugongs, green turtles, and hawksbill turtles led to observable declines in the numbers of these animals – now species of conservation concern.     

ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE: A REVIEW OF DEFINITIONS, THEORY AND EMPIRICS

Infrastructure investment, especially in South Africa, is currently at the forefront of policy and public debate. But the term ‘infrastructure’ has a variety of definitions and interpretations; the reason for the various definitions is related to infrastructure's various impacts and incidence. Three levels of infrastructure are identified: local, national and transnational. Infrastructure at all three levels are subject to certain market failures which require some form of government intervention. Furthermore, theory postulates a number of benefits from infrastructure, both on economic growth and equity. Both the quantity (access to infrastructure) and quality (reliability of infrastructure or accompanying services) are important. Finally, empirical analysis tests whether these theoretical benefits are indeed realised. However, it seems as though infrastructure empirics are subject to a number of serious limitations.     

THE ECONOMICS AND ORGANISATION OF CHINESE MINING IN COLONIAL AUSTRALIA

This article describes Chinese mining in colonial Australia using the examples of gold mining in southern New South Wales (NSW) and the Northern Territory as well as tin mining in northern NSW. Chinese miners were often more successful than their European counterparts. One reason for this success was the effective use that the Chinese made of large cooperative groups, a particularly efficient way to work a mining claim. Earlier studies of Chinese mining in Australia chiefly chronicled the racism and violence experienced by the Chinese and underestimated their significant economic contribution. Reasserting their economic importance challenges an exclusive focus on race.     

GLOBALISATION, FACTOR PRICES, AND POVERTY IN COLONIAL INDIA

Analytical accounts of South Asian economic history often suggest that the principal effects of nineteenth century globalisation on the region were deindustrialisation and agrarian expansion, and that deindustrialisation contributed to an increase in poverty despite agricultural growth. Available wage datasets show that artisans did relatively well and rural workers relatively worse in the period in question, suggesting that poverty did increase but deindustrialisation was an unlikely cause. I discuss the wage statistics to show this, and propose that, in order to complete the globalisation story, we need to consider three local factors: limits to deindustrialisation, limits to labour mobility, and limits to agrarian expansion.     

DIFFUSION AND ADOPTION OF NERICA RICE VARIETIES IN CÔTE D’IVOIRE

Because of their promises to combine the high yielding quality of the Asian rice with the local adaptability of the African rice, the New Rice for Africa (NERICA) rice varieties, which have won its creator Monty Jones the 2004 World Food Prize, are raising hopes for increased rice productivity in Africa. We use data from a sample of 1,500 farmers to consistently estimate the NERICA actual and potential adoption rates and determinants in Côte d’Ivoire. The NERICA actual adoption rate in 2000 is estimated to be 4%, although its potential adoption rate is estimated at 27%. The estimated 23% population “adoption gap” (difference between the 27% potential adoption rate and the 4% actual adoption rate) in 2000, which is because of solely to the limited diffusion of the NERICA in the population in 2000, suggests a large potential adoption impact that could be realized by a successful NERICA dissemination project.     

REVISITING SOUTH AFRICAN EMPLOYMENT TRENDS IN THE 1990S

This article revisits South African employment trends recorded since 1995. In particular, it investigates whether the job losses and gains recorded by the October Household Survey jobs in the mid-1990s reflect the reality. This is done by comparing the different official data sets, and by exploring alternative sources of information for three sectors that substantially influenced this trend, namely formal agriculture, mining, and community, social and personal services. Potential inconsistencies within the October Household data are assessed, particularly in relation to the distribution of employees across formal and informal sectors and the categorisation of unpaid family workers. The implications of possible changes to the employment trend from 1995-2006 are considered. This article finds that the evidence is strong enough to call into question published employment trends. According to the October Household Survey, formal employment fell by 1.4 million between 1995 and 1997. The OHS and Labour Force Survey shows that formal employment then grew by 1.9 million between 1997 and 2006. According to the revised figures presented in this paper, 73,000 to 530,000 formal jobs were lost between 1995 and 1997 and 1.4 million net new jobs were created between 1997 and 2006. It is therefore possible that the plummeting and recovery of employment in the 1990s were both considerably less dramatic than that reflected in the official statistics. Further research and investigation would be required to validate these trends.     

EXPLORING ATTRITION BIAS: THE CASE OF THE KHAYELITSHA PANEL STUDY (2000-2004)

Attrition bias is a problem for users of panel data. Researchers need to know what socio‐economic factors are associated with attrition, and whether this is of relevance for the kind of analysis they want to conduct. This paper discusses attrition bias in the 2000/2004 Khayelitsha panel study. It shows that women, shack‐dwellers and people living in smaller households are more likely to attrit, but that the impact of these variables on the probability of attrition is relatively small. The implications for labour‐market analysis are then explored using Mincerian earnings functions and a probit regression on whether respondents are wage‐employed or not. The coefficients generated using a restricted sample of non‐attritors do not differ significantly from those generated by the entire sample. This suggests that attrition bias in this particular data set is not a problem for this kind of labour market analysis.     

THE SECOND NOEL BUTLIN LECTURE: LABOUR-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIALISATION IN GLOBAL HISTORY

East Asian industrialisation has shown that modern industry has occurred across different cultures under a variety of factor-endowment conditions. The global history of the diffusion of industrialisation over the past two centuries suggests two distinct routes. The first is the 'Western path' associated with capital- and energy-intensive industry. The second path to creating a modern industrial economy is the 'East Asian path' based on labour-intensive industrialisation that has built on quality labour resources cultivated in the traditional sector. This was the path followed by Japan from the nineteenth century and by many other countries in Asia during the twentieth century.