摄影作品——峻·美万仙山

万仙山风景区位于河南省辉县市西北部太行山腹地沙窑乡境内，最高海拔1672米，这里群峰竞秀，层峦叠嶂，沟壑纵横，飞瀑流泉，既有雄伟而苍茫的石壁景观，又有曼妙而秀雅的山乡风韵，景区由影视村——郭亮，清幽山乡——南坪，人间仙境——罗姐寨等景点组成，至峰顶可远眺黄河，俯瞰牧野，一览逶迤群山万仙山风光旖旎，景色秀丽，汇聚百里太行赤岩绝壁的精华．赤红色的悬崖高逾百米，似凝固的岩瀑石幕，曲折、盘旋、迂回，     

工程项目内部成本控制的思考

施工企业是微利企业，随着市场经济部门的建立，在各种因素的影响下，施工企业的产值虽在不断增加，但利润却没有增加。建筑市场竞争日趋激烈，在竞争激烈的买方市场中，压价压标已成为建筑市场的普遍现象，工程压价少则10％，甚至更多，直接影响了施工企业的经济效益，另外，施工任务不足，僧多粥少，施工企业为了生存急于承揽工程施工任务，业主利用施工企业的这种心态，提出苛刻条件，迫使企业垫资施工，     

专奇“刘三国”

才华横溢，富可敌国，妻妾成群，他就是清末民初的牛人刘学询。 清末民初，有一位刘姓的牛人，进士出身，才华横溢，蜚声文坛；曾为“赌王”，拥有700万银元财产，相当于当时国家年财政收入的十分之一：娶了多房美妾，莺莺燕燕环绕，个个沉鱼落雁，被人称作“刘三国”，即“文可华同，富可敌国，妾可倾周”。     

小生意二三事

街边店 北京的天气是越来越像南方，不但热，而且闷，湿度大得惊人，生活在这样一个城市里，整天就像生活在一个蒸笼里。如果真是在南方，那也好，实在热得受不了，到处是水塘、水池、河沟湖泊，往水里一跳，溽暑自解，清凉不期而至。但是在北京，滴水贵如油，实在没办法，只好用自来水去冲凉，可是自来水又涨价了，也不敢随便冲凉了，北京的下层民众，活得实在是不容易。     

金融要发展 人的素质是关键

近几年，金融案件时有发生，浅析其中原因无外乎两大因素所致，一是外部因素，随着市场经济的发展，金钱的诱惑作用尤显突出，因此，社会上不法分子虎视眈眈的窥视金融部门，千方百计地把恶罪之手伸向金融机构，金融推动、盗窃和诈骗案件屡见不鲜，这既扰乱了金融秩序，造成了国家的经济损失，也破坏了安定团结和国民经济的发展，无论罪犯是否得逞，都与金融职工的工作质量和防范工作的好坏密切相关，二是内部因素，少数金融职工或因政治素质不高，思想不纯，利益熏心，私欲膨胀，利用职务之便贪污，挪用、资窃国家资产；或因事业心、责任感不强，酿成了金融大案；或因业务水平低下，造成错帐、坏帐，被坏人钻了空子，使国家蒙受重大的经济损失，这些问题，无论属于哪种情况，客观上都表现为一个人的素质问题。     

谁能跑到底

前几日，看到这样一个故事。静谧的非洲大草原上，夕阳西下，一头狮子在沉思，明天当太阳升起，我要奔跑，以追上跑得最快的羚羊；此时，一只羚羊也在沉思，明天当太阳升起，我要拼命奔跑，以逃脱跑得最快的狮子。第二天早上，狮子发现了羚羊，追了半天也没追上。别的动物都笑话狮子，狮子说，它当然要拼命了，我跑只不过是为了一顿晚餐，而它跑，则是为了自己的生命。读到这里，一下子就让我想到了自己从事的工作或者叫事业。     

转运球

楼下胡同口开了个水果摊，摊主是对年轻的夫妇，听说是外地人，来盘锦打工不到一年，因为经济条件有限，所以只能做点小本生意。夫妻俩每日早出晚归，勤扒苦作，困苦的生活让他们年轻的面庞过早地染上了风霜，可这些并没有压倒他们，相反，小俩口每日有说有笑，逢人先点头，待人谦和，而且秤头上也从不缺斤少两的，久而久之，附近的居民都成了他们的主顾。     

亚洲新兴市场：能否承受风险和经济衰退？——专访瑞银集团环球新兴市场高级经济师安德森先生

美国的经济还会有1.5％的这样一个增长，也就是说这个增长速度会放缓，但是它会持续很长时间，可能要3年，美国市场的增长率，应该是不会降到负数。像亚洲的一些新兴市场，它们承受风险，承受经济衰退的能力比以前提高很多，因为储备率比较高，贸易顺差也比较好，所以，基本上来说，哪怕是会遇到一些经济放缓发展的情况，总体还是处于增长的态势，可能速度比较慢而已     

知识可以值更多

一些朋友喜欢创造发明，其中有博士、硕士、大学生，亦有高中、初中、甚至小学毕业生，看来发明之功，智慧所及，并不以学历为屏障。但一些朋友穷心苦力，创造了好的发明，具有很高的市场价值，却没有获得应有的经济收入，其中有一个原因，就是会发明而不会卖，在发明创造上智力超群，但在商业门道上，却仿若一张白纸，令人叹息。     

武而又文话人生 松而不懈为监督——记湖北省财政厅监督检查局局长赵武松

漫漫人生路，顺境有时，逆境有时。身处顺境之时，要关于把握机遇，加足马力，用全部精力和智慧去扬起生命的风帆，珍惜生命之美好，创造生命之辉煌；身处逆境之时，要调整心态，迎接挑战，用坚韧的意志去诠释生命的意义，展示生命的顽强，点燃生命的希望。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.