Latent class models of international air carrier choice

This paper uses a market segmentation approach to identify airline passengers’ potential segments and preferences toward international air carriers. The modeling approaches consist of the stated preference method and the latent class model. The stated choice experiments were designed based on service attributes in the international airline choice context. Empirical data was collected from airline passengers who have flown from Taipei to Tokyo or from Taipei to Hong Kong. The latent class model accommodating preference heterogeneity outperforms the multinomial logit model as indication of a better approach to analyze airline choice behavior. The latent class model with individual socioeconomic and trip characteristics in segment membership functions also improved model fit relative to the corresponding latent class model without individual characteristics. The values of willingness to pay for service attribute improvements vary across international air routes and segments. Passengers are willing to pay more for better service quality. In order to develop effective marketing and operational strategies for the international air travel market, this study highlights the importance of exploring airline choice behaviors by routes and segments.     

Traveler perceptions and airline choice: A multivariate probit approach

We investigate the factors that affect passenger decisions regarding airline choice. Three Multivariate Probit (MP) models are developed to analyze data for a sample of 853 respondents. This methodology allows for modeling the simultaneous, yet separate, consideration of airline choice determinants. Fare, safety and reliability, and friendly-and-helpful staff during flight are the most important determinants of airline choice. In-flight entertainment and frequent flyer program are considered to be less important. Results clearly depict differences in the significance of these factors among passengers with different socio-demographic and trip characteristics.     

Exploring the green image of airlines: Passenger perceptions and airline choice

During the last few years there has been an increasing trend for companies to market their products or services as green or environmentally friendly as part of their corporate social responsibility. Few studies have analyzed the effects of this recent focus on the environment and its impact on airline passengers. Therefore, we examine passengers' general attitudes towards the green image of different airlines, perceived differences in eco-friendliness among these airlines, and effects on airline choice during booking. We also investigate how passengers' recent experiences with an airline affect perceived eco-friendliness of that airline. In addition we compare passenger ratings of airline eco-friendliness to those published by independent 3rd parties. Our findings show that the green image of airlines does influence airline choice during booking. We observed a passenger willingness to pay extra for a green image, however, not as much as their willingness to pay extra for amenities, such as additional legroom.     

A study on passengers' airport choice behavior using hybrid choice model: A case study of Seoul metropolitan area,South Korea

Improving explanatory power is significantly important to understand variables that affect attitudes and perceptions in the decision process. This paper estimates not only tangible attributes but also intangible perceptions and attitudes using a hybrid-choice model to study air passengers' flight choice behavior. The empirical study was conducted for the choice behavior of air passengers at Seoul Metropolitan Area, South Korea. The analysis uses a two-level Nested Logit model in order to examine which factors have more effect on passengers’ choice of airport and airline simultaneously by using airport and airline choice attributes. The study also estimated the parameters in the equations relating the latent variable by using Structural Equation Model (SEM). The results indicate that the models with latent variables have improved Goodness-of-Fit when compared to classical discrete choice models and effectively capture psychological factors that affect choice behavior of passengers.     

Modelling airport and airline choice behaviour with the use of stated preference survey data

The majority of studies of air travel choice behavior make use of revealed preference (RP) data, generally in the form of survey data collected from departing passengers. While the use of RP data has certain methodological advantages over the use of stated preference (SP) data, major issues arise because of the often low quality of the data relating to the un-chosen alternatives, in terms of explanatory variables as well as availability. As such, studies using RP survey data often fail to recover a meaningful fare coefficient, and are generally not able to offer a treatment of the effects of airline allegiance. In this paper, we make use of SP data for airport and airline choice collected in the US in 2001. The analysis retrieves significant effects relating to factors such as airfare, access time, flight time and airline and airport allegiance, illustrating the advantages of SP data in this context. Additionally, the analysis explores the use of non-linear transforms of the explanatory variables, as well as the treatment of continuous variations in choice behavior across respondents.     

Determining flight frequencies on an airline network with demand–supply interactions

This paper determines flight frequencies on an airline network with demand–supply interactions between passenger demand and flight frequencies. The model consists of two submodels, a passenger airline flight choice model and an airline flight frequency programming model. The demand–supply interactions relevant to determining flight frequency on an airline’s network are analyzed by integrating these two submodels. The necessary condition for the convergence of the demand–supply interaction is discussed. An example demonstrates the feasibility of applying the proposed models. The results are more accurate than those obtained without considering demand–supply interactions, and the models provide ways to consider demand–supply interactions well in advance to determine flight frequencies on an airline network.     

Airline choice and tourism growth in the Azores

This study examines the effect of airline choice on tourism growth in the Azores. The results reveal that tourism numbers increased sharply as more alternative choices emerged to visitors after the entrance of low-cost carriers due to airline liberalization. Moreover, different airline types attract different kinds of visitors, contributing to tourism diversification. In particular, low-cost airline tourists are younger than those who travel in full-service airlines or charter flights. They are also more likely to buy a last-minute ticket and to come from Iberian and French markets. Charter flights, however, are important choices for those traveling to the Azores from more distant markets such as Sweden and Denmark.     

The competitive landscape of air transport in Europe

Competition between airlines and airports increased significantly since the deregulation of the intra-European air transport market in 1997. The passenger has a wider choice in terms of routings and departure airports than twenty-five years ago and pays a lower price. In this paper we investigate in which parts of Europe airline and airport competition are most intense and how the competitive landscape has changed since the liberalisation of the intra-European market.Competition levels are modelled for all air transport markets available to consumers in each western-European municipality using a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model. This allows us to determine how competitive the air transport product available to consumers in each of those municipalities truly is and how competition levels have changed. As opposed to most other competition studies we take all viable direct and indirect flight alternatives into account, as well as competing alternatives from nearby (adjacent) airports. This makes it the most extensive analysis of competition in the European aviation industry performed to date.As expected the results show that airline competition, allowing for grouping of the airlines belonging to the same alliance together, has in general increased since the liberalisation of the intra-European market. This can mainly be ascribed to the rise of the low cost business model. The spatial analysis however shows an uneven outcome. Changes in airline competition are most pronounced in areas that were previously not well served, such as the more remote regions in the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy. In Germany airline competition is lagging behind due to the strong dominance of the STAR alliance. In large parts of Scandinavia, but also in parts of France and Spain, airline competition is considerably less. These areas are often served only by a handful of airports and/or airlines, limiting airline choice and therefore competition.     

Airline emissions charges and airline networks

Emissions charges are an effective tool to control aviation carbon dioxide emissions. This paper investigates how airline emissions charges affect a monopoly airline's network choice. By considering simultaneously fully-connected, hub-spoke and mixed networks, we find that the impact of emissions charges on airline network configuration depends crucially on some relevant parameters, for example, the marginal benefit of the reduction of schedule delays and the disutility of additional travel time of connecting flights. Welfare analysis shows a discontinuity in the network configuration from the social planner's perspective and an inefficiency related to the airline's choice on mixed network.     

Recovering costs through price and service differentiation: Accounting for exogenous information on attribute processing strategies in airline choice

The entry of low cost airlines has thrown out a challenge to all airlines to find ways of attracting passengers, through a mix of fare discounting, greater frequency, improved flight times and no-frill's levels of on-board service. These competitive strategies have an impact on cost recovery. As airlines seek business in an increasingly heterogeneous passenger market, a greater understanding of what matters to potential passengers in choosing an airline grows in importance. Traditional studies of passenger airline choice assume that all attributes matter, but some to a lesser extent. What happens to the empirical evidence on willingness to pay when specific attributes are totally ignored by particular passengers? In this paper, we examine the impact of individual-specific attribute processing strategies (APS) on the inclusion/exclusion of attributes on the parameter estimates and behavioural outputs of models of airline service and fare level choice. Modelling practice assumes that whilst respondents may exhibit preference heterogeneity, they employ a homogenous APS with regards to how they process the presence/absence of attributes of stated choice (SC) experiments. We demonstrate how information collected exogenous of the SC experiment on whether respondents either ignored or considered each attribute of the SC task may be used in the estimation process, and how such information may be used to provide outputs that are attribute processing strategies segment specific.     

Internationalization strategies of EU and Asia–Pacific low fare airlines

We employ Dunning’s eclectic paradigm (OLI) to shed light onto low fare airlines’ internationalization strategies. In addition to 31 European low fare airlines, we also analyze the internationalization strategies of 41 low cost carriers in the Asia–Pacific region. The results indicate that homogenous groups of such airlines emerge with regard to their internationalization strategies and that capital and ownership structure as well as relative timing is especially closely related to low fare airline’s entry modal choice. We discuss inferences for the use of the OLI paradigm in further studies of airline internationalization.     

Airline in-flight entertainment: the passengers’ perspective

Following relaxation of economic regulation in many aviation markets, the competition amongst airlines has intensified in recent years. This has resulted in improvements in airline products, especially in the in-flight services. One of the areas on which airlines have focused their attention is the provision of personal in-flight entertainment (IFE). In 1998, airlines spent $1.8 billion on IFE. However, the industry is faced with a number of questions in relation to such levels of investment: Are the investments justified? Does IFE influence passengers’ choice of airline? Does IFE have a revenue-generating potential? What does the future hold as far as the IFE services are concerned? This paper addresses these questions based on a passengers survey and literature review. The results indicate that while IFE is not amongst the primary factors affecting passengers’ choice, it contributes greatly to passengers’ satisfaction with airline services. While provision of IFE can currently act as a differentiating factor, in the future it will become part of passengers’ expectations. It has also become apparent that, while IFE has the potential to generate some revenue, it would not be enough to cover the total costs associated with the installation and running of IFE systems. The impact of IFE would be felt, indirectly, through increase in passenger loyalty which should have a positive impact on airline revenues.     

Airline alliance survival analysis: typology,strategy and duration

Alliances have become the organization model of choice in many industries. This study uses data from the Airline Business annual surveys of airline alliances to test a proposed typology predicting survival and duration in airline alliances. The Rhoades-Lush typologies classified key activities of airline alliances by their level of complexity and resource commitment in order to suggest a series of propositions on alliance stability and duration. The results of our analysis indicate that alliances containing joint purchasing and marketing activities had lower risk of termination than alliances involving equity. Furthermore, alliances spanning more than two typologies showed lower risk of termination than one and two typology alliances. This is explained as the ‘strategy effect’ or in other words the tendency of alliances wide in scope to be more resistant to early termination.     

The impact of airport parking fees on the tourist's airport/airline choice behavior

This paper analyzes the airport/airline choice behavior of tourists for Saxony/Germany. We employ flexible parametric choice methods (mixed logit) in order to test the effect of standard attributes on the choice probability. In addition we extend existing literature with the introduction of parking charges in the choice experiment. Our results show a significant and negative impact of parking charges on airport choice probability. Thus, we can compute high elasticities of parking charges for tourists. These results suggest, that airport managers have in form of parking policies a powerful policy instrument as they can directly affect the size of the airport catchment area.     

Willingness to pay for safety improvements in passenger air travel

The risk of being involved in an airplane accident is largely ignored in air passengers’ choice models. The reason presumably is that it is hard to operationalize, because objective safety indicators often involve extremely low probabilities that are hard to grasp and interpret by passengers. In this paper, we propose an operationalization that is based on the perception of safety, which is easy to understand and resonates that perceptions often influence decisions stronger than objective variables. We conceptualize that passengers form a safety perception score of a particular flight based on their perception of airline and route attributes and that this score in turn is traded-off against other flight attributes, such as ticket costs, to arrive at a flight choice. In line with this conceptualization, two stated preference experiments are conducted. In a first experiment, combinations of airline and route attributes are evaluated in terms of safety that is captured on a rating scale. In a second experiment, safety perception is treated as an attribute and traded-off against other flight attributes to arrive at a flight choice. The paper presents the results of a regression and a Panel Mixed Logit model estimated from responses obtained from a convenience sample of 161 air passengers recruited in the Netherlands. The results of both models are then combined to calculate the willingness to pay values for improvements made to a range of airline and route attributes, taking into account socio-demographic variables and psychological traits. As expected, the results indicate that the willingness to pay for improving safety decreases with higher initial safety levels.     

Modeling and testing the “two-step” decision process of travelers in airport and airline choices

This paper develops and estimates a nested logit model of airport–airline choice that incorporates the “two-step” decision process of air travelers. The model assumes that a traveler first eliminates certain choice alternatives that do not satisfy his/her minimum acceptable standards (first step), and then chooses the utility-maximizing alternative from the set of screened choice alternatives (second step). The model is calibrated by using the survey data collected in the USA (central Iowa). The results imply that the “two-step” choice model may fit the observed data significantly better than the conventional “one-step” choice models.     

Air itinerary choice in a low-frequency market: A decision rule approach

This paper focuses on low frequency airline service patronage using the data from a survey conducted at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran, Iran. It uses Dominance-based Rough Set Approach (DRSA) for modeling passengers’ choices. We compare the method with discrete choice models using a prediction potential measure. Unlike discrete choice methods, it can use qualitative and categorized data without having to transform them into dummy variables. It is found that the prediction accuracy of the proposed technique is better than that of the discrete choice model for the case under consideration.     

Modelling airline flight cancellation decisions

In order to predict airline responses to Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs), and reveal the underlying preference structures that shape these responses, we study US domestic airlines’ cancellation decisions in response to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)’s TMIs, in particular, to Ground Delay Programs (GDPs). By observing the actual flight-cancellation choices made by airline dispatchers, the airlines’ cancellation utility functions can be inferred through the use of binary choice models. The model captures how delays to a given flight and potential delay savings to other flights affect flight cancellation decisions. We also find larger, fuller, less frequent, shorter-distance, and spoke-bound flights are less likely to be cancelled, and that there is inter-airline variation in flight cancellation behaviour.     

Airline choice by passengers from Taiwan and China: A case study of outgoing passengers from Kaohsiung International Airport

Understanding what factors passengers consider when selecting an airline is critical, as airlines can utilize this information in market segmentation and marketing strategies. However, few studies have explored how passenger demographics and the nationality/type of carrier (full service or low-cost; regional or international) affect the choice factors of passengers when selecting airlines. The main objective of this study was to explore the airline choice factors considered by passengers, compare the choices of passengers with different demographics, and analyze which factors are emphasized by passengers from Taiwan and China when selecting airlines. We conducted a questionnaire survey of outgoing passengers at Kaohsiung International Airport in relation to 22 factors underlying their choice of airline. Using factor analysis, we identified the five factors: ground services, convenience, in-flight services, price, and travel availability. We then utilized cluster analysis to identify four groups, each concerned with price, comfort, convenience, and ground services, respectively. Nationality, age, income, flying frequency, and purpose of travel lead to differences in deciding which factors were considered by cross-strait passengers. Passengers of different nationalities concerned with different factors when selecting airlines. Our findings can add to the completeness of existing research as well as provide airlines with reference in developing marketing strategies for different customer groups.     

Mapping causalities of airline dynamics in long-haul air transport markets

The introduction of low-cost air transport services to short-haul routes has significantly shaped the structure of this market segment. Recent research investigates and discusses the transferability of the low-cost carrier business model to long-haul routes and identifies respective challenges such as lower cost advantages over the competing full-service network business model. Our paper complements the existing research with a review of airline dynamics in long-haul air transport markets and the subsequent development of a causal loop diagram of the transatlantic air transport market using systems thinking. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of specific characteristics regarding airline operations in the transatlantic air transport market to investigate the market potential of long-haul low-cost carriers competing with full-service network carriers in this market. We implement these characteristics in a causal loop diagram which comprises the most important elements of and causalities within the long-haul air transport market that affect the development of these elements. These include the generation of transatlantic air transport demand, passenger choice, and airline ticket price and fleet development. The causal loop diagram serves as a framework for qualitative investigation of the market potential of long-haul low-cost services. The paper proves systems thinking to be a feasible approach to map causalities based on knowledge from scientific literature.