上海居民住房需求的收入弹性分析———基于家庭层面的微观分析

内容对居民住房需求行为的分析,尤其对住房需求收入弹性的估计,是我们分析住房市场现状及判断发展趋势的重要依据,也是住房政策制定的基础前提.但目前国内相关文献有限,以微观数据为基础的研究更少.本文以国家统计局统计调查队2007年对上海居民家庭的大样本抽样调查问卷为数据基础,运用两阶段模型来估计上海居民住房需求的收入弹性.两阶段模型,即指先通过对租买选择、住户持久收入的分析,再将由此得出的IMR比率(由住户的租买概率计算而得)引入住房需求模型,从而得出参数的估计值.我们发现,在住房市场中,对住房消费的主力人群———30-59岁的各个年龄组中,IMR均显著,说明上海居民租买选择与住房需求量是联合决策.在市场化住房市场中,我们估计的住房需求收入弹性,30-44岁年龄组为0.419,45-59岁年龄组为0.559,收入弹性随年龄上升而增大.同时本文也分析了市场化与非市场化住房市场需求弹性的差异,及租买选择如何随年龄而变化     

房价压力会刺激文化消费吗?

文章应用CFPS2010、2012、2014年的调查数据,以房价收入比指数作为"房价压力"的代理变量,探讨了房价压力对文化消费的影响机制。在我国房价收入比畸高的社会环境下,消费者同时受到"释放压力型"消费需求的驱使和可支配收入减少的预算约束,为了缓解生活压力,获得心理慰藉,增加了对相对廉价且非必需的文化消费品的需求,即口红效应成为房价压力影响文化消费的传导机制。研究发现：控制户主受教育水平、家庭其他生活压力、地区经济发展水平和文化消费氛围等因素,在城镇中仅拥有一套及以下住房资产的家庭中,高"房价压力"显著提升了居民文化消费需求。在影响机制研究中,首先,通过验证房价压力对总消费的抑制作用剥离了财富效应的影响,其次,通过验证房价压力对大额消费品和小额消费品影响的异质性,证实了房价压力对文化消费影响口红效应的存在性。进一步将研究样本按照消费文化类型、收入阶层和受教育阶层分组后发现：开放的消费文化下高"房价压力"对居民文化消费的促进作用更强,中等收入阶层在高"房价压力"下进行"释放压力型"文化消费的需求最强烈。高学历层次居民在面对"房价压力"时更倾向选择文化消费作为释放压力的渠道。     

Income inequality and access to housing: Evidence from China

Economic theory suggests that income inequality predicts housing price and housing affordability for low-income households. Employing Chinese urban household survey data, this paper examines empirically the relationship between income inequality and access to housing for urban low-income households. The empirical results demonstrate that higher income inequality within cities is significantly related to a higher housing cost burden, a smaller per capita living space, and lower housing quality for low-income households. Further studies demonstrate that the negative impacts of income inequality could be moderated by product differentiation in housing markets, as a higher degree of differentiation in the size of housing units corresponds to a smaller effect of income inequality on housing affordability.     

Impact of demographic dynamics on food consumption — A case study of energy intake in China

Most existing studies of food demand focus on economic factors, such as income and price. Physical factors which determine human energy intake requirement, given economic conditions, such as gender and age structures of the population as well as occupation, are usually not incorporated. While this is appropriate in the situation of a continuous, stable development of demographic structure, it might lead to biased result if drastic and irregular demographic changes have taken place. This paper provides a case study of China of the impact of demographic dynamics on the change of physical requirement and energy intake demand. The unique population pyramid in China, resulted from the big famine in the early 1960s and then the “One Child” policy” starting from the 1980s, has led to the irregular evolution of age groups and the consequent changes in the proportion of the “big-eaters”. As a result, given food price and income, the very age structure of the population at the time affects the overall weighted energy intake level of the population significantly. Using household survey data ranging from year 1991 to 2009, the index of Adult Male Equivalent Scale (AMES) is constructed to reflect the varying per capita physical requirement resulted from the demographic dynamic over the years in China. The AMES index, together with food price and income, has been applied to the per capita energy intake model. The empirical results show that the AMES index has statically strong impact on per capita energy intake, and the inclusion of the AMES index into the model has improved the model fitness. This finding sheds light on a possible way for improvement in projecting China's food demand in the future by incorporating the country's changing demographic factors.     

调控政策、住宅价格与居民住房支付能力——基于PanelData模型的区域差异分析

高房价是近年来我国政府关注的焦点,而与之相关的居民住房支付能力强弱则成为关键问题之一。本文以区域差异为视角,加入政策调控因素,引入虚拟变量,构建Panel Data模型以定量考察各因素对居民住房支付能力的影响程度。结果表明,住宅价格对西部地区的影响低于东、中部,而居民收入和消费支出水平对东部地区的影响高于中、西部;数量型货币政策工具对西部地区居民住房支付能力的影响最为显著,价格型货币政策工具对东部地区的影响最大。据此政府应该根据各地区居民住房支付能力的差异、影响因素的不同而制定相应的有效政策,提高居民住房支付能力。     

Estimating flexible consumption functions for urban and rural households in China

There are few comprehensive studies of household consumption in China that covers all commodities due to data restrictions. This prevents the calculation of inequality indices based on consumption. This lack of coverage also makes analysis of policies that affect consumption difficult; economy-wide models used for analysis often have to employ simple consumption forms with unit income elasticities. We estimate a translog demand system distinguished by demographic characteristics, giving price and income elasticities that should be useful for policy analysis. We estimate separate functions for urban and rural households using household expenditure data and detailed commodity prices (1995–2006). This allows future analysis of social welfare and inequality based on consumption to supplement existing studies based on income. To illustrate an application of the model, we project consumption composition based on projected prices, incomes and demographic changes – aging, education improvement and urbanization.     

基于需求角度房地产价格影响因素的实证分析

本文从需求角度分析影响房价的各因素,包括经济发展水平、城镇化水平、城镇居民收入水平和通货膨胀等,并选取一系列房地产价格的影响指标在2001-2010年的十年数据,建立31个省市房价的多种面板数据模型。对不同模型间进行选择和比较,得出最佳模型为个体固定效应模型,力图揭示各选取因素是否能够对房地产价格产生显著影响,从而确定需求层面上房价的影响因素,以及得出相应建议。     

The demand for residential domestic service in the London of 1901†

This article concerns the effect of income and other variables on the demand for residential domestic service in London in 1901 and presents the first estimated model of the demand for residential service known to the author. It uses previously unexploited data consisting of the incomes and household details of some 500 civil servants. An extension of Becker's model of household production is set out and an ordered probit statistical model of servant demand is estimated. The results confirm the importance of income but also show that the demographic composition of the household was of significance. These results are interpreted in terms of age‐ and gender‐related differences in the supply of labour and the demand for market goods. The results are consistent with the view that middle‐class Edwardian households should be understood as sites of production as well as consumption. A comparison of the statistical results with contemporary recommendations in manuals of household management suggests that those recommendations were typically over‐optimistic. The article presents a ‘ready reckoner’ whereby household income may be estimated from the number of resident servants, but caution in its use is urged.     

Household Grain Consumption in China: Effects of Income,Price and Urbanization

The objectives of this study of household grain consumption in China are to update previous estimates of consumption parameters, to look at the effect of urbanization on grain consumption and to compare household demand patterns across the region. Household grain consumption is divided into two categories: direct and indirect grain consumption. Demand systems are estimated for four consumer groups, rural, town, city and large city, respectively, using data from the 1991 rural and urban household surveys undertaken by China's State Statistical Bureau. The impact on grain consumption of income, price and urbanization is particularly elaborated.     

基于状态空间模型的中国房价变动的影响因素研究

本文选择1999至2009年的中国房屋销售价格指数、GDP、货币供应量M2和人均可支配收入的季度数据作为研究样本,通过建立状态空间模型并运用卡尔曼滤波对其估计和分析,分别得到了以上因素对房价影响力的动态特性。由此得出的结论主要包括：人均可支配收入和货币供应量是长期内影响房价的两个主要因素,前者对房价的影响稳定而后者的影响波动较大,此外GDP是另一个对房价影响稳定但影响力稍弱的因素;在2009年中国总体房价快速上涨的过程中,货币供应量对房价的影响强度明显超过了其他两个因素。     

The impact of the rise and collapse of Japan's housing price bubble on households’ lifetime utility

This study estimates the impact of the dramatic changes in housing prices during Japan's bubble from the late 1980s to the 1990s on households’ asset accumulation and utility over their life cycle. We construct a life-cycle model explaining households’ consumption/saving and housing decisions under collateral and borrowing constraints. We estimate this model using data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), which includes data on households’ housing wealth estimated from objective information. Using the estimated model, we then conduct a counterfactual simulation in which we assume that housing prices remained constant during the bubble period. Doing so allows us to quantify the gains/losses of lifetime utility due to the housing price boom and bust. We find that 72.2% of the households experienced an average decrease in lifetime utility equivalent to 5.7% of lifetime income. On average, Japan's housing price boom and bust caused a loss in lifetime utility equivalent to 4.7% of lifetime income. Moreover, we compare the impact of the housing price bubble across cohorts and find that the impact was greatest for those who experienced the bubble at ages 35–45.     

消费决策、进口需求与房价变动:理论模型与经验证据

本文探讨在消费选择的机制下房价变动影响进口贸易的路径,并且实证研究我国房价变动对进口贸易的影响程度.通过构建基于消费者跨期选择机制的优化框架,得出了房价对于进口的影响为替代效应和收入效应并存.关键取决于消费者对房屋的购买是否纳入必需品考虑范畴.在此基础上利用31个省市2004-2009年的面板数据进行经验分析,得出:房价每上升1％,进口额会上升0.8％左右.可见,我国房价上升对进口额的影响是替代效应大于收入效应.从我国消费者总体行为上看,在房价上涨到一定程度的条件下,消费者会减少购房而增加进口需求.这也进一步说明在我国,房屋的购买大多不是为了满足基本的生存居住需要,而是作为投资和保值工具.     

Housing prices and the high Chinese saving rate puzzle

China's over 25% aggregate household saving rate is one of the highest in the world. One popular view attributes the high saving rate to fast-rising housing prices in China. However, cross-sectional data do not show a significant relationship between housing prices and household saving rates. This article uses a simple consumption-saving model to explain why rising housing prices per se cannot explain China's high household saving rate. Although borrowing constraints and demographic changes can translate housing prices to the aggregate saving rate, quantitative simulations of our model using Chinese time-series data on household income, housing prices, and demographics indicate that rising mortgage costs can increase the aggregate saving rate by at most 2 to 4 percentage points in the best down-payment structure.     

Energy demand and population changes

During the post World War 2 years energy consumption has grown 136% while population grew about 51%; per capita consumption of energy expanded, therefore, about 60%. For a given population size, demographic changes mean an increase in energy needs; for instance the larger the group of retirement age people, the smaller their energy needs than are those for a younger group. Estimates indicate that by the year 2000 the energy impact will be toward higher per capita consumption with 60% of the population in the 19-61 age group of workers. Rising female labor force participation will increase the working group even more; it has also been found that income and energy grow at a proportional rate. The authors predict that gasoline consumption within the US will continue to rise with availability considering the larger number of female drivers and higher per capita incomes. The flow of illegal aliens (750,000/year) will have a major impact on income and will use greater amounts of energy than can be expected. A demographic change which will lower energy demands will be the slowdown of the rate of household formation caused by the falling number of young adults. The response of energy demand to price changes is small and slow but incomes play a larger role as does the number of personal automobiles and social changes affecting household formation. Households, commercial space, transportation, and industry are part of every demand analysis and population projections play a major role in determining these factors.     

具有微观基础的上海市住宅价格影响因素研究

文章根据特征价格模型和1120个上海市新建住宅交易样本建立了上海市住宅价格指数,并以此为基础修正CREIS上海指数得到上海同质住宅价格指数,从而有效的排除了住宅微观属性差异对价格波动的影响。以1995—2010年上海市宏观经济数据为样本,从供给、需求、宏观、投资4个方面选取16个社会经济指标,通过主成分分析得到影响上海市住宅价格的4个主成分,选取主成分代表指标求出其与上海同质价格指数的回归方程。研究结论认为,宏观经济发展是上海市住宅价格波动的主要影响因素,和供求因素共同决定了住宅价格,投资因素对与住宅价格波动并无显著影响。     

基于PVAR模型的保障房建设对商品房价格影响研究

通过建立商品房价格、经适房销售面积、地区人均GDP值、城镇居民可支配收入的PVAR模型,进行面板向量自回归的实证分析。结果表明,保障性住房建设对商品房价格影响是动态的,在区域保障性住房建成的短暂时间内,先对商品房价格具有抑制作用,但随后对商品房价格起到正面效应。     

Examining the impact of home purchase restrictions on China's housing market

This paper studies the impact of home purchase restrictions on China's housing market. We estimate a structural model of household preference for housing, real estate developers' pricing decisions, and equilibrium market outcome in five large cities. By comparing the estimation results from pre- and post-policy intervention, we find that, after home purchase restrictions are implemented, overall housing demand in most cities becomes weaker and less price elastic; meanwhile, real estate developers face higher holding costs and thus are willing to lower prices and sell more quickly. Counterfactual analyses show that in some cities alternative policy designs that cause less structural change of demand could achieve larger consumer welfare and social welfare than the implemented policy.     

住房需求与经济基本面——基于购房者风险偏好视角的研究

文章通过建立住房需求与商品消费跨期决策模型,将收入、物价、房价、房贷、利率、人口等经济基本面因素纳入局部均衡分析中,证明了这些变量对住房需求的影响主要取决于购房者的风险态度,住房需求与经济基本面之间主要表现为一种抛物线关系,其开口方向由风险偏好态度决定。采用门限面板模型、平滑转换面板模型和半参估计方法,对1999年到2012卑全国31个省面板数据进行实证检验,表明我国目前购房者主要是风险爱好型。     

收入差距、房价与消费变动——基于面板数据联立方程模型的分析

正确理清收入差距与房地产价格的关系,探知其对消费的影响,是实现我国扩大内需战略所面临的重要问题。本文基于我国的2000-2008年31个省、市(自治区)的面板数据,构造联立方程模型,深入探讨了收入差距、房地产价格与消费的关系,结果发现,收入差距与房价之间存在着正向的互动关系,但是对消费的影响却呈现出一定的区域差异,在东中部地区,收入差距与房价之间这种相互强化的关系,使得代表消费主体的广大中低收入群体的住房负担加重,不得不减少消费。但是在西部地区,由于住房负担相对较轻,能正向发挥财富效应,所以收入差距与房价之间的互动影响,反而促进了消费。这种差异正好折射出我国区域经济发展的不平衡性。因此,有必要通过对收入分配的合理调整,实施稳健的货币政策和有效的住房保障政策来科学调控房价,进而切实促进消费。     

Bubbles or fundamentals? Modeling provincial house prices in China allowing for cross-sectional dependence

This paper provides an empirical analysis of changes in real housing prices in China using quarterly province-level data from 2001 to 2014. It examines the extent to which real housing price at the provincial level are driven by economic fundamentals, such as real per capita disposable income, real interest rate, and size of urban population. The econometric modeling takes explicit account of provincial heterogeneity, nonstationarity of variables, and cross-sectional dependence across provinces by virtue of the Common Correlated Effects model. We find that fundamentals play a less significant role in explaining the house prices in China. Inconsistent with economic theories, the most important fundamental, real income, cannot completely justify the housing price inflation. Therefore, there may be a housing price bubble in the market.