对现阶段我国城市轨道交通建设的"冷思考"

针对现阶段我国出现的城市“轨道交通热”,从造成轨道交通盲目建设的原因进行具体分析和思考。以巴西库里蒂巴的公共交通系统为基础的Metrobus系统的成功应用为例,指出城市应因地制宜地建设低成本大众运输系统来解决交通问题。同时对城市交通系统的建设提出相关建议。     

Spatial evolution of airport traffic and air transport liberalisation: the case of Greece

This paper explores the evolution of airport passenger traffic in Greece over the period 1978–2006. The country is a member of the European Common Aviation Area, but despite air transport liberalisation, spatial concentration of traffic and asymmetry remain high and have not decreased significantly over time. Greece is still short of traffic generated by low-cost carriers especially outside the main metropolitan airports. The paper argues that further dispersion of traffic could be possible primarily in the mainland if low-cost carriers decide to dynamically enter the Greek market. Potential benefits for regional and tourism development should induce policy makers to work towards this direction.     

Spillover effects of the development constraints in London Heathrow Airport

In this article we assess the growth impact of London Heathrow’s development constraints on other airports in the UK. To test the relationship we use a two-stage methodology yielding an estimate of a congestion spillover effect. Our data are passenger traffic from 1990 to 2012 containing both intercontinental and European air traffic. For intercontinental air traffic, our results show high congestion spillover effect between Heathrow and Gatwick airports, and significant but lesser effect to Stansted airport. We also find significant congestion spillover effects from Heathrow to the spatially more distant Manchester and Birmingham airports, showing the extensive spatial impact of Heathrow’s development constraints. For European air traffic, controlling for low-cost air carrier growth, only two airports show significant congestion spillover effects: Gatwick and London City Airports. Illustrating that low-cost carriers do not operate from Heathrow, so its limitations cannot affect the predominant low-cost air traffic in other airports. The novel methodology we present in this paper can be applied to congestion research in general to assess regional and modal spills within networks.     

Observations of fundamental changes in the demand for aviation services

This paper addresses the seemingly inexorable decline in yield in the airline industry. The external shocks to the industry of the terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001, wars in Afghanistan and the Arabian Gulf and SARS all had downward impacts on the demand for air travel. However, these effects mask a more fundamental change in the demand for aviation services. The analysis uses published sources and a survey of 264 travellers to examine the fall in yields. The traffic mix of economy, business and first class passengers is shown to have changed over a 10 year period as proportionally more travellers choose to use economy class products. This combined with a fall in yield by a third in this cabin during the same period has lead to a significant fall in industrywide yields. Behavioural shifts in business travel and leisure demand are examined. Business travellers have switched from business class products as the difference between business class and leisure fares have increased significantly and as economy class and low-cost carrier products are increasingly viewed as acceptable for business traveller needs, particularly in short-haul markets. Leisure travel has increased as low-cost carriers have introduced low fares, generating new traffic and winning market share from scheduled and charter airline competitors alike.     

Impacts of LCC growth on domestic traffic and fares at largest US airports

This paper examines the evolution of domestic origin-destination air traffic and fares at the top 200 airports in the US between 1990 and 2008, with a focus on the impacts of low-cost carrier entry and growth. By 2008, 95 of the airports had an aggregate low-cost carrier market share of domestic traffic greater than 20%, up from 27 airports in 1990. Their entry or substantial growth at US airports has had significant impacts on lowering average fares and stimulating passenger volumes. This market stimulation effect has, however, diminished in recent years, as the difference in average fares between carrier types has narrowed and as the number of additional US domestic origin-destination markets able to support their entry has dwindled.     

Freeway traffic congestion in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: attitudes and policy implications

The last few years have shown an unprecedented increase in traffic congestion in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, especially on radial freeways. Unorganized distribution of land uses, inefficient traffic management, and low-cost automobile use have been major contributors to the problem. This article shows a strong awareness amongst drivers of the negative consequences of the congestion problem. Interviewees have strongly supported several land use, traffic management and transportation provision measures to alleviate freeway congestion but have strongly opposed increasing automobile travel costs. The study suggests an integrated approach to reduce the congestion problem through integrated policies for land use, economics and transportation.     

Estimating annual average daily traffic and transport emissions for a national road network: A bottom-up methodology for both nationally-aggregated and spatially-disaggregated results

The regular and robust collection of traffic data for the entire road network in a given country will usually require high-cost investment in traffic surveys and automated traffic counters. This paper provides an alternative and low-cost approach for estimating annual average daily traffic values (AADTs) and the associated transport emissions for all road segments in a country. This is achieved by parsing and processing commonly available information from existing geographical data, census data, traffic data and vehicle fleet data. Ceteris paribus, we find that our annual average daily traffic estimation based on a neural network performs better than traditional regression models, and that the outcomes of our aggregated bottom-up road segment emission estimations are close to the outcomes from top-down models based on total energy consumption in transport. The developed approach can serve as a means of reliably estimating and verifying national road transport emissions, as well as offering a robust means of spatially analysing road transport activity and emissions, so as to support spatial emission inventory compilations, compliance with international environmental agreements, transport simulation modelling and transport planning.     

Determinants of airport cost flexibility in a context of economic recession

The recent economic downturn led to a significant contraction in the global demand for air travel and cargo. In spite of that, airports’ operating costs did not mirror the traffic trends and kept increasing during the same period, showing evident signs of lack of flexibility. With this background, this paper aims at identifying the drivers of airport cost flexibility in a context of economic recession. This is done by estimating a short-run stochastic cost frontier over a balanced pool database of 194 airports worldwide between 2007 and 2009. Using the total change in cost efficiency during the sample period as a proxy for cost flexibility, the impact of variables such as ownership, outsourcing, airline dominance, low-cost traffic, and revenue diversification is tested in a second-stage regression. Contrary to the existing literature, a higher level of outsourcing is shown to reduce cost flexibility. Results also indicate that low-cost traffic, diversification, and corporatization increase the airports’ ability to control costs. The negative impact of airline dominance suggests the need for more stringent regulations on slot allocation at congested airports in order to ensure optimal infrastructure usage.     

Whether low-cost-carrier passengers spend more on duty-free goods at the airport? Evidence from Incheon International Airport

With a dramatic growth in the low-cost carrier (LCC) traffic around the world, many airports have built budget terminals to accommodate the LCC flights with cheaper airport charge to the airlines but inferior shopping environment and service quality to the passengers. This study aims to answer the following research questions: i). Whether the LCC passengers have higher purchasing power than FSC (full-service carrier) passengers for the airport concessions, particularly the duty-free goods? ii). Would the budget terminal design contribute to or jeopardize the LCC passengers' airport concession expenditure? iii). How could the airport operator maximize its concession revenue by re-designing terminal or re-allocating flight slots? We collect the actual airport duty-free transaction data from Incheon International Airport (ICN) for an empirical investigation. Our empirical evidence first suggests that LCC passengers could have comparable or even higher purchasing power than FSC passengers in consuming duty-free goods at the airport. Among all the LCC passengers, Chinese have the highest purchasing power. Second, the inferior shopping environment and service quality of budget terminal seriously jeopardize the duty-free sales from the LCC passengers. Third, counterfactual analyses show that, if ICN could convert its budget terminal into a conventional terminal, 44 million USD more duty-free sales can be generated per year. Even keeping the current terminal design, re-allocating the LCC flights between the budget terminal and conventional terminal could bring approximately 4.9 million USD more duty-free sales per year. The findings provide managerial implications to ICN and other airports for effective airport revenue management. First, the budget terminal design may not be ideal to accommodate LCC traffic as it damages the concession revenue from particular LCC passengers with high purchasing power. Second, exploring the concession revenue from the growing LCC traffic could help maintain an airport's advantage in aeronautical charge under single-till regulation.     

The impact of low-cost carriers on airport choice in the US: A case study of the Washington–Baltimore region

Previous research has shown that low-cost carriers (LCCs) may stimulate traffic at an airport by offering low fares. Using passenger survey data from the Washington–Baltimore region’s three airports, we find that the benefits of LCCs to airports extend beyond the traffic generated directly by the LCCs through their low fares. In addition, we find that the mere presence of an LCC at an airport can attract passengers, even to competing carriers. These “halo effects” from LCC presence increase the significance to airport managers of attracting LCCs in order to generate passenger demand.     

Entry patterns of low-cost carriers in Hong Kong and implications to the regional market

This study aims to provide a better understanding of Asia's low-cost carriers (LCCs) by empirically analysing their route entry patterns in Hong Kong. Two alternative models have been tested, namely a standard probit model and a generalized least squares estimation. Consistent findings from the two models suggest that LCCs in Asia have a preference for large markets with big populations, high incomes and high traffic volume. On the other hand, the dominance of incumbent full service airlines (FSAs), fierce route competition and the lack of secondary airports are not critical to the growth of LCCs. However, government regulations and airport access are main impediment factors. Despite the adoption of long-distance low-cost models by the region's airlines, geographic distance still plays an important role in LCCs' entry decisions. For the growth of low-cost travel and associated benefits in the tourism industry and overall economy, it is important for governments in the region to liberalize aviation markets, provide sufficient airport capacity, and promote efficient allocation of airport slots.     

Effect of low-cost airlines on tourism in Spain. A dynamic panel data model

This article estimates the impact of low-cost airlines on Spanish tourism during the first decade of the 21st century looking tourist traffic from the principal EU-15 member states using a dynamic panel data. The expansion in low-cost airline activity has had significant, positive direct and indirect effects on the Spanish economy. The study also looks at some of the key elasticities of demand that have influenced this.     

Perceptions of cycling among high school students and their parents

Cycling is a healthy, low-cost, and low-carbon alternative to motorized transport. As a relatively fast active mode of transport, cycling can overcome the distance barrier of walking, while also providing cardiovascular exercise and reducing demand for motor vehicle travel. The “cycling renaissance” has seen an increase in the number of cyclists in urban spaces, and there is evidence of increased investment in cycling infrastructure and cycle skills training in some places. Yet the number of high school students cycling to school is declining in many industrialized countries. Transport to school is a major contributor to daily traffic congestion, resulting in both local and global environmental concerns, and high school students have been relatively overlooked in research to date. In this paper, we present empirical material from a qualitative study of high school students and parents in Dunedin, Aotearoa New Zealand. Focus group sessions were conducted during 2014 and 2015 with students and parents separately, to explore their perceptions of modes of transport and transport to school decision making. Key findings relate to perceived safety, implicit messages, and social norms. We find that a complex range of factors contribute to perceptions of cycling safety, including features and perceptions of the built environment, traffic safety (including behaviors of other road users), previous cycling experiences (including accidents), and adolescents' cycling skills and on-road experiences. Overcoming concerns through behavioral and cultural interventions coupled with upskilling and thoughtful infrastructure may present a pathway to increasing rates of cycling.     

Adaptive nature of coordinated road traffic injury prevention responses in some OECD countries

This study examines the context of coordinated responses, triggers for coordinated responses, and preference for or choice of coordinating strategies in road traffic injury prevention at a local level in some OECD countries. This aim is achieved through a mixed-methodology. In this respect, 22 semi-structured interviews were conducted with road traffic injury prevention experts from five OECD countries. In addition, 31 professional road traffic injury prevention stakeholders from seven OECD nations completed a self-administered, online survey. It found that there was resource limitation and inter-dependence across actors within the context of road traffic injury prevention at a local level. Furthermore, this study unveiled the realization of resource-dependency as a trigger for coordinated responses at a local level. Moreover, the present examination has revealed two coordinating strategies favored by experts in road traffic injury prevention – i.e. self-organizing community groups, which are deemed to have a platform to deliver programs within communities, and the funding of community groups to forge partnerships. However, the present study did not appear to endorse other strategies such as the formalization of coordinated responses or a legal mandate to coordinate responses.In essence, this study appears to suggest a need to manage coordinated responses from an adaptive perspective with interactions across road traffic injury prevention programs being forged on a mutual understanding of inter-dependency arising out of resource scarcity. In fact, the role of legislation and top-down national models in local level management of coordinated responses is likely to be one of identifying opportunities to interact with self-organized community groups and fund partnership-based road traffic injury prevention events.     

Measurement of airlines’ capacity utilization and cost gap: Evidence from low-cost carriers

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the capacity utilization and cost gap between actual and global long-run minimum costs. Based on the data for thirteen low-cost carriers around the world for the year 2010, an input-oriented data envelopment analysis model is used to estimate the physical capacity utilization and cost gap between actual and global long-run minimum costs. The empirical results show that more than half of low-cost carriers should improve their capacity utilization, and all low-cost carriers should enhance their market efficiency and reduce their excess costs. Of the thirteen low-cost carriers, three should improve their technical efficiency, four should re-distribute the mix of variable inputs, all thirteen should pay lower prices for all variable inputs, and ten should enhance the utilization rate of their fixed factors.     

Measuring the LCC effect on charter airlines in the Spanish airport system

Using a robust transfer function model methodology, the present paper seeks to offer empirical evidence regarding the size and type of effects that low-cost carriers (LCCs) have had on traffic for charter carriers (CCs) in the Spanish airport system by geographic market. We show an unmistakable substitution relationship between CCs and LCCs in the latter's typical niche markets, national and European flights, while there is no reaction from the CCs in the segment of international flights outside the EU. Furthermore, substitution effects are smaller between CCs and LCCs on the domestic level than effects between LCCs and network carriers (NCs) and slightly larger on the European level. Lastly, CC traffic's different sensitivity to terrorist attacks, day of the week, air accidents and the economic crisis is also evident. CCs should therefore be considered an independent category that warrants individualized analyses.     

Estimating an origin–destination table for US imports of waterborne containerized freight

Containerized freight imports into the US are growing at an average of 10% per year. This traffic is concentrated at a small number of US seaports. It is therefore important to have an accurate understanding of the flow of containers from their origin country through these seaports to their final destination. This paper develops an optimization model to estimate route flows and a corresponding multi-modal origin–destination table for containers by synthesizing data on international trade and railcar movements with a gravity model for the demand of container traffic. This analysis provides insights into the balance of rail and truck inland transportation from each port.     

Leisure travel in Europe and airline business models: A study of regional airports in Great Britain

Tourism and air transport are explicitly linked especially in the context of leisure traffic. This paper highlights this relationship by focusing on the impact of the three main airline business models (traditional scheduled, charter and low-cost) on regional airports using Britain as a case study. The panel data econometric results show that despite the current perception, low cost carriers are not the only ones to contribute significantly to airport aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue. This observation has important policy implications and calls for transparency in airport subsidies as argued in the conclusion.     

De-hubbing of airports and their recovery patterns

The paper analyzes cases of de-hubbing in air transport between 1997 and 2009. It initially addresses the conditions to be met for airports to be identified as de-hubbing cases. Second, it examines what happens after de-hubbing by clustering the cases into homogenous groups that show that, on average, airports that experienced de-hubbing did not recover their original traffic within five years and that de-hubbing is likely to be irreversible. When hub carriers were replaced at least partially by low-cost carriers, airports on average recovered faster. De-hubbing adversely affects the number of destinations served less severely than the seats offered by carriers.     

The growing influence of low-cost carriers in Northeast Asia and its implications for a regional single aviation market

This paper provides an overview of the development of the low-cost carrier (LCC) sector in China, Japan, and South Korea. It is the first paper that documents LCC contributions to the passenger traffic and cheaper fares in Northeast Asia (NEA)'s intra-markets. We argue that a single aviation market can facilitate the growth of the LCC sector, which in turn will make a significant contribution to the NEA connectivity, mobility, and integration. In addition, with a single aviation market, NEA countries can adopt a proactive, unified approach in negotiating air transport agreements with the major aviation partners to maximize the interests of this region as a whole, which will further provide valuable growth opportunities for the LCCs.