The WTO Doha Agenda—Progress and Issues for Asia Pacific Developing Economies

Progress in the Doha Round of WTO negotiations has been slow. Frameworks for establishing modalities for agriculture, non-agricultural market access and trade facilitation were agreed upon in July 2004 but key details are still to be negotiated and many commitments remain vague. For developing economies in the Asia Pacific region, the July package contains many potentially positive elements, including a commitment to remove all forms of agricultural export subsidies and a framework for reducing domestic supports and market access restrictions. However, most of the difficult issues are still to be addressed. Already it is apparent the agreements and commitments will be complex, full of exceptions (especially for developing countries due to their insistence on economically damaging forms of special and differential treatment) and difficult to interpret. This will serve to enable all governments to fudge commitments and to undermine the transparency of the multilateral trading system. Latest developments are not encouraging. Critical target dates set in the July package in preparation for the December Hong Kong Ministerial Conference were missed due to negotiations lagging in all key areas. Without a successful outcome in Hong Kong, it is unlikely the Doha Round will be completed by the current deadline of 2007.     

多哈回合谈判全面中止的政治经济学分析

2006年7月持续近5年之久的世贸组织多哈回合全球贸易谈判全面中止。多哈回合谈判全面中止产生的最重要影响是打击了人们对多边贸易体系的信心，从而可能引发新一轮的区域和双边贸易自由化谈判并由此加剧贸易保护主义。从历史经验来看，多哈回合谈判中止可能仅是暂时性的，经过发达成员和发展中成员的积极努力，最终会重启并完成新一轮全球贸易谈判。     

多哈回合谈判现状及我国的策略选择

“巴厘一揽子协定”是多哈回合谈判的“早期收获”,但因协定并未涉及分歧较大的议题,加之WTO谈判机制的弊端仍然存在,区域贸易主义又呈现蒸蒸日上的发展趋势,多哈回合谈判依然前途未卜.我国作为最大贸易国,应当积极参与WTO的规则制定,明确谈判立场,在充分考量利弊的基础上选择最优的策略应对多哈回合的每一议题.     

A Kiss of Life for the Withering Doha Round of the Multilateral Trade Negotiations?

Abstract

Notwithstanding the gallant intensions, the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations (MTNs) proved to be egregiously problem-prone. It went down in the history of multilateral trade as the first round to be suspended. Potsdam was the final link in this chain of breakdowns. While the G-8 leaders supported the DDA, their trade delegations did not seem to abide by the public pronouncements of their leaders. This article delves into the anatomy of this failure and points toward the salient factors that led to it. There is an imperious need for resuscitating the Doha Round and for the key players to be flexible and take some decisive steps forward. The round is too important for the community of trading economies to be allowed to collapse. Revival is a possible and credible objective. A two-stage revival process is suggested in this article.     

WTO农业谈判囚徒困境的成因及启示

作为导致多哈回合谈判破裂以及多哈议程被迫中断的主要原因,WTO农业贸易自由化问题上的分歧昭示了多哈谈判利益博弈的复杂与艰难。农业议题的高度敏感性、欧美农业经济历史包袱沉重和政治利益集团的干扰、发展中国家的崛起以及传统谈判思维和方式局限加大了WTO农业谈判利益聚合的难度。当前,我国应当力主WTO农业谈判的实际影响力和中国话语权,加快农业产业化和产业安全体系建设步伐,为建构公正合理的国际农业贸易利益平衡机制贡献智慧和力量。     

Policy analysis with Melitz-type gravity model: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

Several governments worldwide aim at fostering agricultural productivity growth by providing investment support. However, the policy’s effect on trade for middle- and low-income countries has not been analyzed so far. This paper analyzes the impact of agricultural policies (credit subsidies and tariffs) on agricultural trade flows by modifying a Melitz-type structural gravity model for a small and open economy. According to the theory, trade flows are expected to increase with credit subsidies and decrease with partners’ applied tariff rates. We analyze bilateral agricultural trade flows between Kyrgyzstan and its 69 trading partners from 2007 to 2018 to test our theoretical findings. Applying the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator, we find that credit subsidies effectively increase international trade flows while applied tariffs imposed on agricultural products reduce Kyrgyzstan’s export substantially. These results can be applied to similar economies with publicly available data where small budgetary efforts drive trade expansion.     

Going beyond Cancun: Realizing the development promise of the Doha agenda

The launch of a new trade round in Doha in November 2001 was a major breakthrough following the discord in Seattle in 1999. The Doha Round is the first set of multilateral trade negotiations in which the needs and interests of developing countries have been officially declared a priority and whose conclusion deemed essential. However, the failure of the Doha negotiations in Cancun in September 2003 was a major setback. The trade talks are now stalled in several policy domains vital to developing countries such as agriculture, non‐farm trade, access to patented drugs, special and differential treatment and dispute settlement, and in areas of interest to the developed countries such as the “Singapore issues” dealing with investment, competition, trade facilitation and government procurement This paper discusses the reasons behind the failure, its wider implications as well as the policies that member governments of the World Trade Organization (WTO) will need to make to move beyond Cancun.     

TPP谈判及其对中美贸易的影响

由于多哈回合停滞不前和全球贸易结构尤其是服务贸易结构趋向高级化,加上美国的强力推动,全球贸易规则不断演进,TPP谈判的影响力越来越大。TPP谈判涵盖的内容非常广泛,不仅要求开放服务业,还关注贸易背后的诸如劳工和环境标准的问题,其谈判的分歧取决于谈判各方在多大程度上接受美国的贸易规则。一旦TPP施行,美国服务贸易的优势将得到增强,并且美国贸易商将获得规则上的优势。而对于中国而言,TPP的施行将给中国出口带来负面影响,但中国可以选择深度开放、加强双边或区域经济合作以及利用上海自贸区对TPP规则进行融合等方式来应对TPP的影响。     

How to keep trade policy open: the case of Indonesia

We explore the ups and downs of trade protectionism in Indonesia since the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98. The key constraints to unilateral trade reform include exchange rate factors, the political economy of consumer–producer behaviour, institutional complexity and global pressures. We conclude that trade reform is likely to face difficulties, with protectionism on the rise again, but that, during the temporary halt in the World Trade Organization's Doha Round of trade negotiations, Indonesia may be able to use regional and international engagement to counterbalance rising protectionism.     

How does GVC reconstruction affect economic growth and employment? Analysis of USA–China decoupling

The state of USA–China relations has become increasingly strained. The term ‘decoupling’ has been frequently used within the narrative of USA–China relations to describe the possible outcome of the relationship. A ‘decoupling’ of the USA and Chinese economies would trigger the restructuring of existing Global Value Chains (GVCs). Given this possibility, we use the 2014 World Input–Output Database (WIOD) and the hypothesis extraction method to simulate several scenarios of GVC reconstruction on economic growth and employment. From the analysis, we find that: (1) GVC reconstructions caused by USA–China decoupling would have a greater impact on China than on the USA. If USA–China bilateral trade is replaced by the surrounding economies, China's GDP and employment would fall by 2.57% and 2.34%, respectively. (2) The effects on regional economies are synergistic, with the countries directly surrounding China and the USA being more affected than India and most European countries. (3) USA manufacturing may benefit from the manufacturing repatriation policy, but the overall impact on economic growth would be limited. (4) In all reconstruction scenarios, global GDP figures are lower than they are today, demonstrating the importance of maintaining existing GVCs.     

Analysis of Chinese Manufacturing Export Duration

This paper studies the duration of Chinese manufacturing exports and its determinants, using disaggregated 6‐digit level Harmonized System product trade data from 1995 to 2007. Cox proportional hazard, Weibull and exponential models are used to examine the effects of various factors on export duration. It is revealed that export duration tends to be rather short‐lived. It is also found that GDP and GDP per capita of the export destination have positive effects on export duration, while trade relationships with distant and landlocked countries are generally of shorter duration. In addition, export duration is longer for differentiated and parts and components products, as well as products with large initial trade values. WTO membership is also important for longer export duration. Our empirical analysis suggests that developed markets, such as the USA and the EU, are important to China, and should still be the major sources for Chinese export growth in the long run. Moreover, technical innovation of firms and free trade agreement negotiations will be helpful for sustainable export growth.     

中国对外贸易成本的分解及其对出口的影响——基于随机前沿引力模型

本文运用随机前沿引力模型,测度了2001年和2007年中国与94个国家和地区的双边贸易成本,并按照贸易成本的构成对中国在两个时期间的出口增长进行了分解。结果表明,中国的出口增长主要来自于显性和隐性跨境贸易成本的减少以及贸易伙伴国需求的增加。在2001～2007年期间,边境内成本的变化导致中国对欧盟、美国、日本三大贸易伙伴出口损失的减少,而由该成本变化带来的出口损失增加的大部分来自印度和巴西。另一方面,由于隐性跨境成本的约束,中国对于严格遵循TBT和SPS政策的一些高收入或中等收入国家的出口潜力减少了。     

China's WTO Commitments in Agriculture and Impacts of Potential OECD Agricultural Trade Liberalizations*

After accession to the WTO, China's agriculture is affected by the implementation of its WTO commitments and will be impacted by any multilateral liberalization (actions by the rich OECD economies in particular) resulting from the Doha negotiations. Using the actual commitment data, our computable general equilibrium simulation results show that China's WTO commitments will lead to increased agricultural imports and slightly declined outputs in China. The resulting efficiency gains will be negated by terms‐of‐trade losses, leading to quantitatively small welfare impacts. Furthermore, sectoral results depend critically on correctly representing the more complex policy measures, such as the tariff rate quotas. The negative output effects on Chinese agriculture can be alleviated/reversed if the rich OECD countries commit to reform their agriculture policies. The present paper concludes that trade liberalization should be carried out in both developing and developed countries. Reforming the latter will be particularly helpful in easing the problems facing those developing countries that are carrying out ambitious trade reforms.     

中国RTAs发展及与拉美国家区域经济合作

本文通过对近年来中国区域贸易安排(RTAs)发展进程的分析,阐明了中国RTAs发展的特点。中国RTAs及其发展体现了多边贸易合作和双边贸易合作并举、广泛参与RTAs谈判活动、先易后难、策略灵活务实、选择的贸易合作对象与中国的经济具有较强的互补性等特点。在此基础上,文章进一步探讨了中国与拉美国家发展RTAs的利弊,认为在经济全球化的大背景下,中国是多边贸易制度的最大受益者之一。为此,在兼顾区域贸易合作发展的同时,要以长远的战略眼光促进WTO多哈回合谈判的成功。     

The Future of African Trade with China under Alternative Trade Liberalization Schemes

Abstract: Evidence is gradually being built up in Africa on the full extent and rapidly growing role and interest of China in Africa. The global trade integration under the Doha Round, which is considered as the channel for fostering outward‐oriented development and generates economic and social benefits, is expected to effect more African trade with China. Our results show that with an agreement for the Doha Round, China will achieve its dominance on global trade faster than in the baseline scenario where no agreement is expected to be signed. In the long term, this impressive growth in Chinese exports to Africa is not a real value added, as China is already taking the place of the other major trade players both in African markets as well as in the markets of other regions and countries. In other words, China is expected to achieve in 10 years (2010–2020) what initially was expected to be achieved in 20 years in case of no agreement under the Doha Round, where a simple linear estimation on the evolution of Chinese exports is carried out. Our results also show that even in the case where China will offer more market access for African countries, the situation will not improve much for most of them. The reason is that Africa is still suffering from small productive capacities and a low level of diversification of its economy.     

Coherence and the WTO

Coherence between the WTO and the Bretton Woods Institutions(a formal WTO objective) has achieved some minor goals but hasbeen expensive in terms of direct costs and inefficiencies inpolicy-making and policy debate. The so-called Integrated Frameworkhas achieved relatively little and aid for trade has yet tobe fully established. There is little role for the WTO in developmentand aid policy other than its traditional job of facilitatingtrade growth, and so its role in aid-for-trade is unclear. Coherence,especially when interpreted as allowing developing countriesto avoid trade liberalization in the name of development, hasconfused and weakened the Doha Round of WTO negotiations.     

多哈回合谈判的困局及出路

经过近九个年头的谈判,多哈回合仍然没有任何结果,让人觉得前途暗淡。然而必须看到,多哈回合的胜利完成,一方面,会带来更大的贸易自由化;另一方面,可以抵御日渐抬头的贸易保护主义;而它的失败则会对全球贸易带来严重后果。因此,针对目前的僵局,发达国家应该做出更多让步;小国家则应该组成不同的集团,以集团代表的方式参加各项议题的讨论;而谈判委员会主席的工作和职权则应该受到更多的约束。只有各方都做出调整,谈判才有可能顺利完成。     

How will growth in China and India affect the world economy?

China and India are rapidly growing, labor-abundant economies with very different export mixes. China is more integrated into global production sharing for manufactures, while services exports are more important for India. Even assuming India integrates more comprehensively into global production chains, there will be opportunities for rapid growth in both countries. Improvement in the range and quality of their exports can create substantial welfare benefits for the world, and for China and India, and can offset the terms-of-trade losses otherwise associated with rapid export growth. Most countries will need to respond to increased competition in some sectors, and to greater opportunities in others.     

“金砖四国”产业内贸易的经济效应分析

文章利用加权产业内贸易指标、产业内贸易与贸易额和GDP之间的相关关系对＂金砖四国＂产业内贸易的经济效应进行实证分析。结果显示推动四国贸易的主要是产业间贸易,中国与印度产业内贸易总体水平最高,但中国与巴西的贸易额对加权产业内贸易指数的弹性系数最大,中国与俄罗斯双边产业内贸易对推动两国GDP的作用最为突出。     

Implementation and imbalance: dealing with hangover from the Uruguay Round

The Uruguay Round agreements impose bound obligations to implement,but provide only unbound promises of assistance—is therea legal solution within the WTO legal system, i.e. can implementationassistance be made a legal obligation? The author concludesthat the Doha negotiations on trade facilitation and on aidfor trade demonstrate that such a legal arrangement cannot beconstructed. This is not, however, a problem; the internationalcommunity has provided extensive trade-related assistance throughbilateral and multilateral development agencies. Regarding theoverall Uruguay Round imbalance (developing countries gave morethan they got), failure of the international community to acknowledgethat the imbalance stems in major part from the WTO agreementon intellectual property (TRIPS) has retarded a general making-up.