山东省经济增长与外国直接投资之间的实证分析

本文应用Granger因果关系检验法和协整关系检验,研究了1984-2002年山东省经济增长与外国直接投资之间的关系。研究结果表明,山东省的经济增长与外国直接投资增长之间既不具有双向的Granger因果关系,也不存在长期稳定的协整关系。     

IntraLATA long-distance demand: carrier choice, usage demand and price elasticities

Competition in the long-distance market in the US continues to intensify; the 1996 Telecommunications Act has led to increased competition in long-distance telephony especially as the Regional Bell Operating Companies have begun to gain entry to long-haul, long-distance markets. In order to better understand the implications of having increased service offerings, models of how customers choose between carriers (and the impact of this choice on subsequent usage) will be useful. We develop the first publicly available models that simultaneously estimate choice and usage for intraLATA long-distance in the US. Utilizing a generalized Tobit model, the price responsiveness of usage and carrier choice are estimated. The results are generally consistent with expectations both in terms of theory and of practical experience in the industry.     

Oil price shocks,geopolitical risks,and green bond market dynamics

This research explores the causal relation among oil price, geopolitical risks, and green bond index in the United States from December 2013 to January 2019. Unlike the conventional linear model specification used in earlier works, we evaluate causal relations based on Granger-causality in quantile analysis. Our empirical results reveal unidirectional Granger-causality from geopolitical risk to oil price at the extreme quantiles. We also observe a significant bi-directional causality from oil price to green bond index for the lower quantiles. Findings also reveal causality from geopolitical risk to green bond index in the lower quantiles of the distribution. Therefore, knowledge of these causal relationships can help policy makers to evaluate and implement effective policies to prevent sudden and substantial oil price shocks and geopolitical risk.     

Foreign direct investment and its determinants: A regional panel causality analysis

Moving beyond traditional one- or possibly two-way causality involving foreign direct investment (FDI), a systematic approach is implemented for delineating both short- and long-run flows of causality involving FDI and a comprehensive set of FDI's possible determinants. Granger causality procedures incorporating error correction terms are implemented, using provincial panel data from China. In both the short and long run, growth in GDP directly influences FDI, while growth in local infrastructure and local investment provide indirect but not direct influence.     

数字城市建设与智能卡应用

从研究智能卡(即IC卡,以下称IC卡)的应用现状着手,分析了IC卡大量发行的原因,提出了城市一卡通解决方案的对策与建议.提出在城市一卡通的应用中要实现六个结合和两个并存,给出了城市一卡通套餐,以期对我国数字城市建设中的IC卡应用推广起到积极的作用.     

Entrepreneurship,innovation and competitiveness: A public institution love triangle

Diverse and different research studies have approached the impact of the quality of public institutions on entrepreneurship, innovation and competitiveness. However, this relationship has not hitherto been subject to simultaneous study but rather only separately. In turn, our research thus holds the objective of simultaneously evaluating the impact of the quality of public institutions on entrepreneurship, innovation and competitiveness based on data aggregated at the OECD member state level. We therefore seek to demonstrate how the higher the perceptions of public institution quality held by individuals, the higher the indices of entrepreneurship, innovation and competitiveness. To this end, we deploy data collected from various sources, specifically the United Nations (UN), the World Bank (WB), the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), World Economic Forum (WEF), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and Freedom House (FH), for the years between 2006 and 2018 (13 years). For the analysis of this data, we apply an econometric methodology based on multiple regression models for unbalanced panel data. We may thus report that the higher the perception of quality of public institutions, the greater the level of the variables applied for entrepreneurship, innovation and competitiveness. We believe our empirical results contain important implications whether for researchers, politicians and decision-makers involved in drafting public policies.     

On economic uncertainty,stock market predictability and nonlinear spillover effects

This paper uses a k-th order nonparametric Granger causality test to analyze whether firm-level, economic policy and macroeconomic uncertainty indicators predict movements in real stock returns and their volatility. Linear Granger causality tests show that whilst economic policy and macroeconomic uncertainty indices can predict stock returns, firm-level uncertainty measures possess no predictability. However, given the existence of structural breaks and inherent nonlinearities in the series, we employ a nonparametric causality methodology, as linear modeling leads to misspecifications thus the results cannot be considered reliable. The nonparametric test reveals that in fact no predictability can be observed for the various measures of uncertainty i.e., firm-level, macroeconomic and economic policy uncertainty, vis-à-vis real stock returns. In turn, a profound causal predictability is demonstrated for the volatility series, with the exception of firm-level uncertainty. Overall our results not only emphasize the role of economic and firm-level uncertainty measures in predicting the volatility of stock returns, but also presage against using linear models which are likely to suffer from misspecification in the presence of parameter instability and nonlinear spillover effects.     

山东省农业贷款与农业产业发展关系的实证分析

近年来,党中央、国务院对农业发展给予了高度重视。而农业的发展离不开金融机构的支持,农业贷款与农业发展之间存在紧密联系。对山东省1980～2005年期间农业贷款和农业产业发展的关系进行实证分析。结果表明山东省农业贷款与农业发展之间存在单向因果关系,该地区的农业贷款对农业产业的发展有促进作用,而农业生产总值的增长对农业贷款增加的推动作用则不明显。     

新能源对广西经济社会环境的影响分析

能源作为人类生存、发展的重要条件,在各国各地区经济发展中扮演着不可替代的作用。当前广西正处于工业化、城镇化发展阶段,能源短缺、环境污染等问题日益严重,应当把发展新能源产业作为解决能源问题的突破口和新方向。新能源产业的发展,势必对满足广西经济发展需求、促进城乡和谐发展、缓解生态环境压力产生重大而深远的影响。     

The Impact of Survey Methodology and Context on Central Tendency,Nonresponse and Associations of Subjective Indicators of Government Performance

A comparison is given of (ordinal) measures of trust in government institutions that were collected with the aim of facilitating comparisons between different modes and contexts of data collection. Statistical analyses reveal that the mode effect could amount upto a 10% change of item nonresponse and a 9% change of the level of trust, whereas the context effect could lead upto a 19% change of the bivariate associations of trust. The observed changes of both measures of central tendency and of associations affect conclusions of social scientific research in isolated studies, which implies that comparative studies are seriously hampered by bias related to mode and context, two sources of obscurity adding to the two other threats which are differences of sample source and differences of question phrasing.     

四川省物流业和三个产业间发展关系计量分析

物流业的发展对地区经济增长的重要性已得到广泛认同。根据协整检验和因果关系检验等计量方法,对四川省1985~2006年经济增长和物流发展水平、三个产业产值的年度经济数据对四川省经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明：四者之间存在长期的稳定关系,即四川省物流发展水平和三个产业之间存在长期的稳定关系,对经济发展起着非常重要的作用。     

The dynamic interactions among the stock,bond and insurance markets

This paper explores the lead–lag relationships and the dynamic linkages among stock, insurance and bond markets in the developed countries. This is the first empirical study which sheds light on the extent and magnitude of the association among these financial markets used by the Granger causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), generalized impulse response approach, and generalized variance decomposition in a multivariate setting. Our empirical results illustrate that there are indeed various patterns of dynamic relationships. The direction of causality appears to differ across countries. While investigating these interactive relationships under unexpected shocks, there is a one-way significant influence between the life insurance premium and long-run interest rate. These empirical findings serve as valuable applications not only for investors to diversify their risk away as well as to earn the abnormal return, but also for policy-makers to allocate resources more efficiently.     

城市化与产业结构升级的两种模式

为探寻发达国家城市化的经验与教训,对美、英、法、德、日五国城市化与产业结构升级的关系进行了分析,并对美、德两国城市化与产业结构升级的关系进行了格兰杰因果检验。研究发现,以美国为代表的内生集中型城市化模式和以德国为代表的外生均衡型城市化模式代表了城市化与产业结构升级关系当中的两种不同模式。其中,德国模式不仅在快速城市化的同时避免了严重的"城市病",而且对产业结构升级起到了积极的推动作用。     

Information flow between prediction markets,polls and media: Evidence from the 2008 presidential primaries

Are the forecast errors of election-eve polls themselves forecastable? We present evidence from the 2008 Democratic Party nomination race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton showing that the answer is yes. Both cross-sectional and time series evidence suggests that market prices contain information about election outcomes that polls taken shortly before the contests do not. Conversely, election surprises relative to polls too Granger cause subsequent price movements. We then investigate whether the additional information in prices could come from the media coverage of these campaigns, and uncover a set of complex relationships between pollster’s surprise, price movements, and various aspects of media coverage. Prices anticipate the balance and content of media coverage, but not the volume. On the other hand, it is the volume of media coverage, not the balance or content, that anticipates the surprise element in election outcomes. Moreover, Granger causality between prices and election surprises barely changes after controlling for media coverage, and causality from media volume to surprises persists too after controlling for price movements. Taken together, the results suggest that both prices and the volume of media coverage contain independent election-relevant information that is not captured in polls.     

论统计数据联网直报的应用与发展

利用联网直报采集统计数据,以科学合理的指标体系为基本需求框架,建立统计部门数据共享,有计划地对全市政府统计部门、政府各职能部门以及国民经济行业主管部门需要搜集的社会经济数据资源进行持续地收集、整合、存储和管理。     

产业结构变动与经济周期波动的关联性分析

从理论上来看,宏观经济周期是反映整体经济波动的经济变量,而中观的产业结构又是构成宏观经济的重要载体,因此,经济周期波动与产业结构变动存在相互影响的关系。文章选取1952-2011年的我国GDP和产业结构数据,采用Granger因果检验方法和VAR模型来分析产业结构和经济周期波动之间的关系及其影响程度。研究认为,我国产业结构变动是引起宏观经济周期波动的深层次原因,同样,经济周期波动也是引起产业结构变动的显著原因,二者之间存在双向影响的Granger因果关系。     

浅谈太西洗煤厂浮选系统存在问题及优化方案

本文主要介绍了太西洗煤厂的浮选工艺,以及针对浮选入料浓度太低提出了解决方案。     

AD734模拟乘法器的原理与应用

AD734是一款高速精密四象限模拟乘法器,典型静态满量程误差仅为0.1%,它提供对分母的直接精确控制,这是模拟乘法器的一个新特点。本文主要介绍了AD734的内部结构框图,分母控制电路,最后给出了AD734应用于乘法运算中的电路图。     

On becoming a sociomaterial researcher: Exploring epistemological practices grounded in a relational,performative ontology

What is the role of the researcher in a world that is continuously enacted and reconfigured in sociomaterial practices, a world in which subject and object, structure and agency, body and mind, knower and known, are assumed to be ontologically inseparable? In this article, I explore this question by drawing on my own experiences of reconsidering essentialist and representationalist assumptions, and becoming a sociomaterial researcher. My exploration draws on my experiences of conducting a qualitative longitudinal case study at the Swedish Migration Board. Specifically, I show what it can mean to ‘invite materiality’ into interviews, examine the conditions of possibility to become in certain ways by tracing the genealogy of practices, and engage with data relationally rather than categorically. By accounting for my experience of working through these practices, I aim to develop and articulate an understanding of what the ontological position underlying a sociomaterial approach implies for epistemology, and of how we can act (or, rather, intra-act) more creatively and responsibly as sociomaterial researchers. Moreover, I highlight differences in the kinds of knowledge that a sociomaterial approach grounded in relational and performative onto-epistemologies, as opposed to a socio-material approach, grounded in critical realism, produce about the unfolding of organizational practices—specifically, the practices unfolding in the reception area of the Swedish Migration Board. The paper contributes to the current debate on sociomaterial approaches, and in particular to the development of practices available to draw upon for researchers taking a sociomaterial approach.     

Challenges for regional science research: past and present

With regional science now into its seventh decade, it is timely to step back and look at what regional science is about, the past challenges it has faced, particularly its relevance, and to identify some of the challenges it has confronted in the past and at present. The paper demonstrates regional science research has had, and continues to have, policy relevance, as well as being relevant for business, and has addressed important issues. It provides an overview of recent commentaries on issues regional scientists might now be addressing.