Explosion in the quasi-Gaussian HJM model

We study the explosion of the solutions of the SDE in the quasi-Gaussian HJM model with a CEV-type volatility. The quasi-Gaussian HJM models are a popular approach for modeling the dynamics of the yield curve. This is due to their low-dimensional Markovian representation which simplifies their numerical implementation and simulation. We show rigorously that the short rate in these models explodes in finite time with positive probability, under certain assumptions for the model parameters, and that the explosion occurs in finite time with probability one under some stronger assumptions. We discuss the implications of these results for the pricing of the zero coupon bonds and Eurodollar futures under this model.     

A Class of Jump-Diffusion Bond Pricing Models within the HJM Framework

This paper considers a class of term structure models that is a parameterisation of the Shirakawa (1991) extension of the Heath et al. (1992) model to the case of jump-diffusions. We consider specific forward rate volatility structures that incorporate state dependent Wiener volatility functions and time dependent Poisson volatility functions. Within this framework, we discuss the Markovianisation issue, and obtain the corresponding affine term structure of interest rates. As a result we are able to obtain a broad tractable class of jump-diffusion term structure models. We relate our approach to the existing class of jump-diffusion term structure models whose starting point is a jump-diffusion process for the spot rate. In particular we obtain natural jump-diffusion versions of the Hull and White (1990, 1994) one-factor and two-factor models and the Ritchken and Sankarasubramanian (1995) model within the HJM framework. We also give some numerical simulations to gauge the effect of the jump-component on yield curves and the implications of various volatility specifications for the spot rate distribution.     

Local volatility dynamic models

This paper is concerned with the characterization of arbitrage-free dynamic stochastic models for the equity markets when Itô stochastic differential equations are used to model the dynamics of a set of basic instruments including, but not limited to, the underliers. We study these market models in the framework of the HJM philosophy originally articulated for Treasury bond markets. The main thrust of the paper is to characterize absence of arbitrage by a drift condition and a spot consistency condition for the coefficients of the local volatility dynamics.     

On pricing kernels and finite-state variable Heath Jarrow Morton models

Once a pricing kernel is established, bond prices and all other interest rate claims can be computed. Alternatively, the pricing kernel can be deduced from observed prices of bonds and selected interest rate claims. Examples of the former approach include the celebrated Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985b) model and the more recent model of Constantinides (1992). Examples of the latter include the Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) model and the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton paradigm (1992) (hereafter HJM). In general, these latter models are not Markov. Fortunately, when suitable restrictions are imposed on the class of volatility structures of forward rates, then finite-state variable HJM models do emerge. This article provides a linkage between the finite-state variable HJM models, which use observables to induce a pricing kernel, and the alternative approach, which proceeds directly to price after a complete specification of a pricing kernel. Given such linkages, we are able to explicitly reveal the relationship between state-variable models, such as Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross, and the finite-state variable HJM models. In particular, our analysis identifies the unique map between the set of investor forecasts about future levels of the drift of the pricing kernel and the manner by which these forecasts are revised, to the shape of the term structure and its volatility. For an economy with square root innovations, the exact mapping is made transparent.     

The dynamics of the volatility skew: A Kalman filter approach

Much attention has been devoted to understanding and modeling the dynamics of implied volatility curves and surfaces. This is crucial for both trading, pricing and risk management of option positions. We suggest a simple, yet flexible, model, based on a discrete and linear Kalman filter updating of the volatility skew. From a risk management perspective, we assess whether this model is capable of producing good density forecasts of daily returns on a number of option portfolios. We also compare our model to the sticky-delta and the vega–gamma alternatives. We find that it clearly outperforms both alternatives, given its ability to easily account for movements of different nature in the volatility curve.     

Extending the universality of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model

Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (HJM) developed an important model of the evolution of interest rates. A key assumption of the model is that interest rate changes are normally distributed in continuous time. Implementing the HJM-method of evolution of interest rates in discrete time for more complex volatility functions remains a significant challenge. In this article, we present a relatively simple and flexible method of implementation, that extends the usefulness of the HJM model. The derivation assumes that the distribution of interest rates is stable, but not necessarily identical, for each discrete time period. This allows us to identify the drift-adjustment terms necessary to build interest rate lattices and trees and Monte Carlo simulations that satisfy exactly the no-arbitrage and volatility conditions, even complex ones, of the model. The much more difficult discrete-time implementation methods suggested in the literature (Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1991) [Heath, D., Jarrow, R. & Morton, A. (1991). Contingent claim valuation with a random evolution of interest rates. Review of Futures Markets, 54-76.] and Jarrow (1996) [Jarrow, R. (1996). Modeling fixed income securities and interest rate options. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Companies Inc.]) do not accomplish that. We illustrate our analytical implementation with three examples of volatility functions and demonstrate its superiority to other methods of implementation.     

Inferring future volatility from the information in implied volatility in Eurodollar options: a new approach

We study the information content of implied volatility fromseveral volatility specifications of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton(1992) (HJM) models relative to popular historical volatilitymodels in the Eurodollar options market. The implied volatilityfrom the HJM models explains much of the variation of realizedinterest rate volatility over both daily and monthly horizons.The implied volatility dominates the GARCH terms, the Glostenet al. (1993) type asymmetric volatility terms, and the interestrate level. However, it cannot explain that the impact of interestrate shocks on the volatility is lower when interest rates arelow than when they are high.     

A Lévy HJM multiple-curve model with application to CVA computation

We consider the problem of valuation of interest rate derivatives in the post-crisis set-up. We develop a multiple-curve model, set in the HJM framework and driven by a Lévy process. We proceed with joint calibration to OTM swaptions and co-terminal ATM swaptions of different tenors, the calibration to OTM swaptions guaranteeing that the model correctly captures volatility smile effects and the calibration to co-terminal ATM swaptions ensuring an appropriate term structure of the volatility in the model. To account for counterparty risk and funding issues, we use the calibrated multiple-curve model as an underlying model for CVA computation. We follow a reduced-form methodology through which the problem of pricing the counterparty risk and funding costs can be reduced to a pre-default Markovian BSDE, or an equivalent semi-linear PDE. As an illustration, we study the case of a basis swap and a related swaption, for which we compute the counterparty risk and funding adjustments.     

Finite Dimensional Affine Realisations of HJM Models in Terms of Forward Rates and Yields

Finite dimensional Markovian HJM term structure models provide ideal settings for the study of term structure dynamics and interest rate derivatives where the flexibility of the HJM framework and the tractability of Markovian models coexist. Consequently, these models became the focus of a series of papers including Carverhill (1994), Ritchken and Sankarasubramanian (1995), Bhar and Chiarella (1997), Inui and Kijima (1998), de Jong and Santa-Clara (1999), Björk and Svensson (2001) and Chiarella and Kwon (2001a). However, these models usually required the introduction of a large number of state variables which, at first sight, did not appear to have clear links to the market observed quantities, and the explicit realisations of the forward rate curve in terms of the state variables were unclear. In this paper, it is shown that the forward rate curves for these models are affine functions of the state variables, and conversely that the state variables in these models can be expressed as affine functions of a finite number of forward rates or yields. This property is useful, for example, in the estimation of model parameters. The paper also provides explicit formulae for the bond prices in terms of the state variables that generalise the formulae given in Inui and Kijima (1998), and applies the framework to obtain affine representations for a number of popular interest rate models.     

A generalised arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model: The impact of unspanned stochastic volatility

Although statistical term structure models provide exceptional in-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasting of interest rates, the lack of theoretical background is criticized by academics and practitioners, such as the absent of arbitrage free. In this paper we develop a general Arbitrage-Free Nelson–Siegel model under the HJM framework. It features unspanned stochastic volatility factors while maintaining a Nelson–Siegel factor loading structure. This paper also exploits the potential to jointly model the interest rates and their derivatives.     

A general HJM framework for multiple yield curve modelling

We propose a general framework for modelling multiple yield curves which have emerged after the last financial crisis. In a general semimartingale setting, we provide an HJM approach to model the term structure of multiplicative spreads between FRA rates and simply compounded OIS risk-free forward rates. We derive an HJM drift and consistency condition ensuring absence of arbitrage and, in addition, we show how to construct models such that multiplicative spreads are greater than one and ordered with respect to the tenor’s length. When the driving semimartingale is an affine process, we obtain a flexible and tractable Markovian structure. Finally, we show that the proposed framework allows unifying and extending several recent approaches to multiple yield curve modelling.     

Coupling index and stocks

In this paper, we are interested in continuous-time models in which the index level induces feedback on the dynamics of its composing stocks. More precisely, we propose a model in which the log-returns of each stock may be decomposed into a systemic part proportional to the log-returns of the index plus an idiosyncratic part. We show that, when the number of stocks in the index is large, this model may be approximated by a local volatility model for the index and a stochastic volatility model for each stock with volatility driven by the index. This result is useful from a calibration perspective: it suggests that one should first calibrate the local volatility of the index and then calibrate the dynamics of each stock. We explain how to do so in the limiting simplified model and in the original model.     

Unspanned stochastic volatility and fixed income derivatives pricing

We propose a parsimonious ‘unspanned stochastic volatility’ model of the term structure and study its implications for fixed-income option prices. The drift and quadratic variation of the short rate are affine in three state variables (the short rate, its long-term mean and variance) which follow a joint Markov (vector) process. Yet, bond prices are exponential affine functions of only two state variables, independent of the current interest rate volatility level. Because this result holds for an arbitrary volatility process, such a process can be calibrated to match fixed income derivative prices. Furthermore, this model can be ‘extended’ (by relaxing the time-homogeneity) to fit any arbitrary term structure. In its ‘HJM’ form, this model nests the analogous stochastic equity volatility model of Heston (1993) [Heston, S.L., 1993. A closed form solution for options with stochastic volatility. Review of Financial Studies 6, 327–343]. In particular, if the volatility process is specified to be affine, closed-form solutions for interest rate options obtain. We propose an efficient algorithm to compute these prices. An application using data on caps and floors shows that the model can capture very well the implied Black spot volatility surface, while simultaneously fitting the observed term structure.     

Tangent Lévy market models

In this paper, we introduce a new class of models for the time evolution of the prices of call options of all strikes and maturities. We capture the information contained in the option prices in the density of some time-inhomogeneous Lévy measure (an alternative to the implied volatility surface), and we set this static code-book in motion by means of stochastic dynamics of It?’s type in a function space, creating what we call a tangent Lévy model. We then provide the consistency conditions, namely, we show that the call prices produced by a given dynamic code-book (dynamic Lévy density) coincide with the conditional expectations of the respective payoffs if and only if certain restrictions on the dynamics of the code-book are satisfied (including a drift condition à la HJM). We then provide an existence result, which allows us to construct a large class of tangent Lévy models, and describe a specific example for the sake of illustration.     

Double-jump diffusion model for VIX: evidence from VVIX

This paper studies the continuous-time dynamics of VIX with stochastic volatility and jumps in VIX and volatility. Built on the general parametric affine model with stochastic volatility and jumps in the logarithm of VIX, we derive a linear relationship between the stochastic volatility factor and the VVIX index. We detect the existence of a co-jump of VIX and VVIX and put forward a double-jump stochastic volatility model for VIX through its joint property with VVIX. Using the VVIX index as a proxy for stochastic volatility, we use the MCMC method to estimate the dynamics of VIX. Comparing nested models of VIX, we show that the jump in VIX and the volatility factor are statistically significant. The jump intensity is also stochastic. We analyse the impact of the jump factor on VIX dynamics.     

Alternative Defaultable Term Structure Models

The objective of this paper is to consider defaultable term structure models in a general setting beyond standard risk-neutral models. Using as numeraire the growth optimal portfolio, defaultable interest rate derivatives are priced under the real-world probability measure. Therefore, the existence of an equivalent risk-neutral probability measure is not required. In particular, the real-world dynamics of the instantaneous defaultable forward rates under a jump-diffusion extension of a HJM type framework are derived. Thus, by establishing a modelling framework fully under the real-world probability measure, the challenge of reconciling real-world and risk-neutral probabilities of default is deliberately avoided, which provides significant extra modelling freedom. In addition, for certain volatility specifications, finite dimensional Markovian defaultable term structure models are derived. The paper also demonstrates an alternative defaultable term structure model. It provides tractable expressions for the prices of defaultable derivatives under the assumption of independence between the discounted growth optimal portfolio and the default-adjusted short rate. These expressions are then used in a more general model as control variates for Monte Carlo simulations of credit derivatives. Nicola Bruti-Liberati: In memory of our beloved friend and colleague.     

Do Bonds Span the Fixed Income Markets? Theory and Evidence for Unspanned Stochastic Volatility

Most term structure models assume bond markets are complete, that is, that all fixed income derivatives can be perfectly replicated using solely bonds. How ever, we find that, in practice, swap rates have limited explanatory power for returns on at–the–money straddles—portfolios mainly exposed to volatility risk. We term this empirical feature "unspanned stochastic volatility" (USV). While USV can be captured within an HJM framework, we demonstrate that bivariate models cannot exhibit USV. We determine necessary and sufficient conditions for trivariate Markov affine systems to exhibit USV. For such USV models, bonds alone may not be sufficient to identify all parameters. Rather, derivatives are needed.     

Term structure modelling of defaultable bonds

In this paper we present a model of the development of the term structure of defaultable interest rates that is based on a multiple-defaults model. Instead of modelling a cash payoff in default we assume that defaulted debt is restructured and continues to be traded.The term structure of defaultable bond prices is represented in terms of defaultable forward rates similar to the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) (Heath et al., 1992) approach, and conditions are given under which the dynamics of these rates are arbitrage-free. These conditions are a drift restriction that is closely related to the HJM drift restriction for risk-free bonds, and the restriction that the defaultable short rate must always be not below the risk-free short rate. In its most general version the model is set in a marked point process framework, to allow for jumps in the defaultable rates at times of default.Financial Assistance by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Sonderforschungsbereich 303, at the University of Bonn and the DAAD is gratefully acknowledged.I thank Pierre Mella-Barral, David Lando and David Webb for helpful conversations, and the participants of the FMG Conference on Defaultable Bonds (March 1997) in London and the QMF 97 conference in Cairns for helpful comments. All errors are of course my own.     

Empirical performance of multifactor term structure models for pricing and hedging Eurodollar futures options

This article compares two one-factor, two two-factor, two three-factor models in the HJM class and Black's [Black, F. (1976). The pricing of commodity contracts. Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 167-179.] implied volatility function in terms of their pricing and hedging performance for Eurodollar futures options across strikes and maturities from 1 Jan 2000 to 31 Dec 2002. We find that three-factor models perform the best for 1-day and 1-week prediction, as well as for 5-day and 20-day hedging. The moneyness bias and the maturity bias appear for all models, but the three-factor models produce lower bias. Three-factor models also outperform other models in hedging, in particular for away-from-the-money and long-dated options. Making Black's volatility a square root or exponential function performs similar to one-factor HJM models in pricing, but not in hedging. Correctly specified and calibrated multifactor models are thus important and cannot be replaced by one-factor models in pricing or hedging interest rate contingent claims.