农业产业化中的金融功能拓展:金贸工农一体化案例

多年来以机构观为指导的农村金融改革,忽略了对农村金融体系功能的关注,农村金融体系的功能单一化成为了农业产业链组织运作和发展升级的制约瓶颈。在现行金融环境的约束下,充分发挥金融功能,修补金融链条中的缺环,使金贸工农一体化发展,实现金融链条与农业产业化链条有机结合,是解决当前农村金融问题的一个有效途径。     

重构我国农村金融体系的思考

改革开放以来，我国农村金融体系得到了一定的发展，但由于沿袭旧的金融结构和制度构架，致使金融资产质量低下，机构各类和业务形式单一，金融功能退化，不能适合农村经济发展的需要，也不能适应加入WTO的需要，为加快农村经济的发展，迎接入世的挑战，就必须对我国农村金融体系进行改革和重建。     

对社会主义新农村建设的思考

社会主义新农村建设亟待金融支持．但现行农村“金融抑制”问题，影响了其支农功能的充分发挥。完善农村金融体系，促进农村经济更快更好发展，必须加快农村金融创新，重点是创新组织体系、金融服务和金融制度，同时加大对农村金融的政策扶持，推进农村社会信用建设。     

完善城乡二元金融结构下的农村金融体系

我国长期存在的城乡二元经济结构导致了城乡分割的二元金融结构的形成,农村金融的发展远远落后于城市金融。城乡金融一体化发展的重点和难点在于农村金融,因而应加强农村金融组织体系和农村金融服务体系建设,以推进城乡金融一体化。     

完善城乡二元金融结构下的农村金融体系

我国长期存在的城乡二元经济结构导致了城乡分割的二元金融结构的形成,农村金融的发展远远落后于城市金融。城乡金融一体化发展的重点和难点在于农村金融,因而应加强农村金融组织体系和农村金融服务体系建设,以推进城乡金融一体化。     

完善农村金融体系的改革设想

随着我国金融体制改革的不断深化,农村金融体系中服务功能弱化、部分主体缺位等问题日益凸显出来,影响了农村经济的全面发展.笔者认为,应根据现阶段农村经济金融发展的主要特征和客观需要,推动农村金融组织向多元化、农村金融市场向多样化、农村金融制度向现代化的方向发展.     

城乡统筹下广西农村金融发展研究

农村金融是农村经济的核心,是加强社会主义新农村建设不可或缺的因素。然而,现阶段广西农村金融未能发挥对农村经济发展的支撑作用,表现在城乡金融二元结构突出,其中农村金融较为薄弱。因此,在社会主义新农村建设时期,从城乡统筹视角出发,大力发展广西农村金融,协调城乡金融一体化发展具有重大的理论和现实意义。论文实证分析了广西城乡金融发展的差距,探析了广西农村金融存在了农村经济发展对资金需求缺口大;金融结构不合理;金融机构功能不健全等问题,在统筹城乡视角下提出了建立和完善农业与农村金融体系;完善农村金融的配套服务机制;明确政府在农村金融发展中的定位;提高农村金融机构信息化水平等相关对策和建议。     

城乡统筹下广西农村金融发展研究

农村金融是农村经济的核心,是加强社会主义新农村建设不可或缺的因素。然而,现阶段广西农村金融未能发挥对农村经济发展的支撑作用,表现在城乡金融二元结构突出,其中农村金融较为薄弱。因此,在社会主义新农村建设时期,从城乡统筹视角出发,大力发展广西农村金融,协调城乡金融一体化发展具有重大的理论和现实意义。论文实证分析了广西城乡金融发展的差距,探析了广西农村金融存在了农村经济发展对资金需求缺口大;金融结构不合理;金融机构功能不健全等问题,在统筹城乡视角下提出了建立和完善农业与农村金融体系;完善农村金融的配套服务机制;明确政府在农村金融发展中的定位;提高农村金融机构信息化水平等相关对策和建议。     

我国农村金融组织体系的功能制约及治理路径研究

本文从金融发展视角出发,分析了我国农村金融组织体系的功能制约特征,并以此为依据,提出了功能制约的治理路径,认为应对我国现有农村金融组织体系进行功能重构,并提出了重构后我国农村金融组织体系应有的功能框架。     

一种新范式:金融功能观对中国农村金融研究的适用性探讨

金融功能观为研究我国农村金融发展提供了全新的思路,但也存在一些缺陷,如未考虑农村金融的隐功能以及农村金融显结构与隐结构的协调发展等问题,因此需要进一步完善。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.