我国利用外商直接投资中的风险与防范

自从改革开放以来,利用外资是我国经济发展的主要动力之一。外商直接投资的比重,尤其是进入90年代以后,呈现逐年上升趋势。随着我国的外商直接投资的增多,各种利弊也逐渐的显示出来,本文将从风险的概念入手,进而引出外商直接投资的风险的定义。并指出外商直接投资的特点,以及其产生风险的根源,进而引申到我国的经济现实,提出对我国的外商直接投资风险的分析。     

Real options and human capital investment

This paper extends the standard human capital model with real options. Real options influence investment behavior when risky investments in human capital are irreversible and individuals can affect the timing of the investment. Option values make individuals more reluctant to invest in human capital and, as a result, required returns on the investment increase. Real options may help to explain a larger human capital premium for higher education, smaller responsiveness of higher educational investments to financial incentives, and larger sensitivity of higher educational investments to low-return outcomes and human capital risks. Higher tax rates (or lower subsidies) depress human capital investments, but to a lesser extent than in the standard human capital model if not all direct costs are tax-deductible. A flat income tax remains neutral if education expenditures are fully deductible.     

Lowering the Marginal Corporate Tax Rate: Why the Debate?

In an effort to attract new investors and retain existing producers, governments use corporate tax rates as a policy tool for industrial recruitment, resulting in inter‐state tax competition. Foreign direct investment (FDI) growth and GDP growth are the two policy outcomes gauged in inter‐state tax competition. The assumption is that lower corporate taxes lead to increases in FDI, which results in capital formation that generates GDP growth. This 60‐nation panel study tests that assumption through examining economic indicators contingent on taxation, such as FDI and mergers and acquisitions among multinational corporations between 1999 and 2009. The results suggest that reduced corporate tax rates can increase FDI but decrease annual GDP growth. The main policy implication is that tax competition may attract investment, but may not promote overall economic growth, offering support for value‐extraction theories.     

产业集聚与外商直接投资关系研究——以浙江纺织产业为例

文章通过实证的方法说明外商直接投资与区域产业集群集聚度之间有着长期的均衡关系,并且外商直接投资的增加对产业集聚有促进作用,因此合理引进外资对区域产业集群有着积极影响。     

行为组织经济学综述

行为组织经济学是以行为经济学的相关理论为基础去研究组织行为的，该领域出现了一大批有指导性的研究成果，这样为组织实践带来更好的指导，文章通过对菜宾斯坦的x效率理论和卡梅拉和马尔门迪尔的委托代理复杂化模型作介绍，以求对行为组织经济学这本学科作出综述。     

Risk aversion and business cycles: An empirical analysis

Unlike investors, who tend to maintain highly-diversified portfolios, private entrepreneurs usually lack access to complete risk-pooling for idiosyncratic risks, thus more directly internalize the cost of volatility. Risk aversion, however, modifies the optimal contract between entrepreneurs and lenders by incorporating the risk premium that entrepreneurs demand for the uninsurable risk: the private equity premium. Consequently, real shocks tend to be amplified as changes in entrepreneurs’ net worth affect the private equity premium and so the rental rate of capital, investment and output. This theoretical framework suggests that economies where the private entrepreneurial sector is a relatively larger, and therefore more vulnerable to uninsurable risk, all else equal, should present higher volatility. I test this prediction by (1) conducting a simple reduced-form analysis that shows that output volatility is negatively associated with the relative importance of the corporate vs. the privately-held sector; and (2) estimating the model's structural parameters. Intuitively, countries where private entrepreneurs are predominant and so risk aversion is likely to impose stronger impacts, positive risk aversion coefficients should be found. Results suggest that risk aversion is empirically more relevant for economies like Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Korea, Mexico and Thailand than for Canada, France, Germany, the U.K. and the U.S.     

The Spatial Distribution of Japanese Manufacturing Industries in Indonesia

This paper presents an analysis of regional changes in the spatial pattern of Japanese manufacturing industries and the effect of deregulation of foreign investment in Indonesia during 1984–1994. Empirical analysis in this paper uses data of 560 Japanese manufacturing industries in Indonesia. The result of this study indicates their continuous regional concentration in the core region of Java. The regression analysis indicates that market, agglomeration and infrastructure continue to be the main reasons for the location of Japanese manufacturing industries. The current economic crisis has substantially reduced the level of new investment in the core region of Java.     

模糊综合评价法在房地产项目风险评价中的应用

房地产开发投资本身所特有的性质,使之表现出很大的风险性,尤其近期国家对房地产行业的调控政策层出不穷,使投资者面临较大的投资风险。文章通过模糊综合评价法对一房地产投资项目进行风险评价,来介绍该方法在房地产投资领域的应用情况,对投资者进行科学决策有一定的指导意义。     

DOES INVESTOR PROTECTION INCREASE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT? A META‐ANALYSIS

We undertake a meta‐analysis of the effects of international investment agreements for the protection of foreign investors on foreign direct investment using 2107 estimates drawn from 74 studies. Our meta‐analysis finds robust evidence that effect of international investment agreements is so small as to be considered zero.  However, our results do not rule out the possibility that the effect of these agreements is, in fact, positive and that current research methods are insufficiently powerful or precise to identify the underlying genuine effect. FDI from developed countries appears to be more responsive to the existence of investment protection, and there is evidence of publication–selection bias in favour of studies that find a positive effect for investor protection.     

论中国外资法的建构

在阐明外资法和外商投资企业法关系的基础上,针对中国现有立法存在的问题提出了建构外资法的建议:确立外资法的立法机构、权限和立法程序,将外商投资企业组织法并入公司法、合伙企业法、个人独资企业法,外资法以外资运作作为主要的调整对象,并成为今后中国国际投资法的一部分。     

MNCs in Central,Southern and Central Europe and the former Soviet Union: investment decisions and the regulation of employment

This article explores the relationship between the regulation of employment and the decisions of multinational corporations (MNCs) to invest in Central, Southern and Central Europe and the former Soviet Union. Building on La Porta et al.'s work on legal origin, and its assumptions as to the incompatibility of owner and worker rights, the World Bank's Doing Business reports held that countries with stronger protection for worker rights represented poor destinations for investors. However, is it the case that investors are really deterred by employee rights? Our study investigates actual trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) through an analysis of UNCTAD World Investment Reports. We find that the level of individual and collective rights and social security legislation is not significantly associated with FDI.     

Should we worry about the decline of the public corporation? A brief survey of the economics and external effects of the stock market

In recent years, the number of listed companies has been declining in many countries across the world. This paper provides a selective survey of the literature on the real economic effects of the stock market to assess the potential effects of this decline and determine whether it is likely to continue. The leading economic role of the stock market’s primary market, in which firms raise capital by issuing new shares, is to help growing firms secure financing. We discuss providing and certifying information, coordinating investors, and easing the redeployment of capital as the means through which capital allocation can be efficiently achieved. The main economic roles of the stock market’s secondary market, the trade in existing shares, is to provide liquidity to shareholders, to aid in price discovery and to provide diversification opportunities. Positive external effects from an active stock market may arise for consumers, labor and private firms due to increased corporate investment, more socially responsible business strategies and a more positive business climate. Negative external effects on capital allocation and productivity can arise from short-termism, market mispricing, and increased cross-ownership. Local stock markets can spur innovation and foreign direct investment (FDI) and reduce the risk of early cross-border acquisitions. Given the myriad of useful economic functions the stock market performs, a future entirely absent of public companies is difficult to imagine and the decline is therefore likely at some point to come to an end. Whether we need to worry about the decline depends on the relative importance of the positive and negative external effects, a topic we feel warrants more research.     

Outward FDI from Central and Eastern European Countries

In Central and Eastern Europe, outward foreign direct investment (FDI) has not yet become as a prominent factor in the regions reintegration into the world economy as trade liberalisation used to be in the early 1990s or inward foreign direct investment is currently. In the terminology of the investment–development path, with the notable exception of the Russian Federation, the region is in stage 2, whereby inward flows are still growing faster than outward flows. This article argues that a combination of the latecomer status of the regions transnational corporations and the transition shock can explain most of that laggard situation. It hypothesises that the enlargement of the European Union (EU) would give a major push to the outward foreign direct investment flows of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), on condition that adequate government policies to promote those investments are put in place. The impact on the investment–development path, however, is uncertain, because accession to the EU is often accompanied by a surge in foreign direct investment inflows, too. Finally, the article also looks at the options available to deal with the specific problems of the Russian Federation in relation to capital flight, including ways of regularisation and potential return to the home economy.     

风险预警模型在房地产企业资金管理中的应用探讨

房地产企业资金管理普遍存在负债比例高、资金沉淀严重、投资行为盲目、融资形式单一、资金管理不善等问题。风险预警模型有预知风险、控制风险、防范风险等功能,运用风险预警系统对房地产行业进行监测、预测并判断其景气状态十分必要。选择了灰色风险预警模型和营运资金周转率作为房地产企业资金管理预警模型的核心指标,设计了房地产资金管理风险预警模型的具体算法和资金管理风险预警模型在房地产企业的具体应用。     

The determinants of foreign direct investment: An analysis of US manufacturing industries

This study explores the determinants of foreign direct investment by analyzing the variation across US manufacturing industries in the extent of outward foreign direct investment. Three types of industry characteristics are hypothesized to explain this variation. Empirical support is found for four sources of ownership-specific advantages favoring foreign direct investment, new technology created through research and development, marketing abilities, organizational techniques and capital cost advantages. Support is found for the role of production scale economies in favoring centralization and hindering foreign direct investment, but results suggest only a weak role for transport costs in favoring decentralization and foreign direct investment. Producer concentration, perhaps reflecting oligopolistic competition, is positively related to foreign direct investment.     

Relative risk aversion and the transmission of financial crises

We study how investor behavior affects the transmission of financial crises. If investors exhibit decreasing relative risk aversion, then negative wealth shocks increase the risk premium required to hold risky assets. We integrate this into a second generation model of currency crises which allows for contagion through changes in fundamentals. Investor behavior can be a transmission channel of financial crises, as changes in risk premia increase the coverage ratio and makes the defense of a peg less attractive for the policy maker. The feedback effect of the risk premia on the probability of devaluation also makes multiple equilibria more likely. The possible stabilization effects of capital controls and a Tobin tax on the international transmission of financial crises are also studied.     

中国利用外资与对外直接投资结构比较及启示

改革开放以来,我国在利用外资和对外直接投资上取得了巨大的成就,从而加速了我国经济发展,使我国经济日益融入全球化。本文通过从存量结构、产业结构、区位结构和投资方式结构四个角度对中国利用外资和对外直接投资的比较分析,从中得到一些启示,以有利于推动利用外资与对外直接投资的共同发展。     

我国钢铁工业利用外商直接投资的现状和对策

本文对我国钢铁工业利用外商直接投资的现状和存在的问题进行了剖析，提出了利于钢铁工业利用外商直接投资健康有序发展的几点思考和建议。     

Loss Aversion,Audit Risk Judgments,and Auditor Liability

Abstract

I investigate how different legal regimes affect auditor's effort and investors' investment decisions when the auditor is subject to probability weighting and loss aversion, which are two important characteristics of Prospect Theory. Probability weighting encourages an auditor to overrate the audit risk and the likelihood of damages leading to inflated audit fees which could help to explain the BigN audit-fee premium. With loss aversion, an auditor is sensitive to the risk of damage compensation and, thus, tends to exert excessive caution which also generates excessive audit fees. Consequently, investors may choose not to hire an auditor and, as a result, may forego an otherwise profitable investment. These effects are more intense with a strict liability regime than with a negligence rule because with the latter, the auditor is not held liable when due care has been exerted. This removes the risk of incurring losses. The paper highlights the robustness of the negligence regime when preferences are unobservable.     

Shareholder Heterogeneity and Conflicting Goals: Strategic Investments in the Japanese Electronics Industry

This article investigates the effects of the changing institutional environment on strategic orientations of Japanese electronics firms during the 1990s. We examine the effects of three different types of shareholders on strategic directions of their invested firms. The first one, foreign portfolio investors, characterizes the emerging influence that pressed for change in corporate strategies. The two domestic shareholders, corporate investors and financial institutions, represent the conventional forces for continuity. Between the two domestic forces, though, while corporate investors attempted to maintain status quo, financial institutions have shifted towards market‐oriented behaviour of investment. Specifically, we explore: (1) the influence of each type of shareholder on a firm's diversification strategy and capital commitment; and (2) the moderating effects of firm performance on the relationships between ownership structure and strategic choices. The results suggest that foreign investors prefer the focused product portfolio and conservative capital commitment. They also prefer the reduction of capital investment when the financial performance of their invested firms is poor. Domestic financial institutions are now similarly sensitive to the performance of their invested firms when those firms make strategic investments. By contrast, domestic corporate shareholders remain indifferent to performance, while they aim to maintain relational business ties with invested firms.