Passive Institutional Ownership,R2 Trends,and Price Informativeness

A distinctive trend in the capital markets over the past two decades is the rise in equity ownership of passive financial institutions. We propose that this rise has a negative effect on price informativeness. By not trading around firm‐specific news, passive investors reduce the firm‐specific component of total volatility and increase stock correlations. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that the growth in passive institutional ownership is robustly associated with the growth in market model R²s of individual stocks since the early 1990s. Additionally, we find a negative relation between passive ownership and earnings predictability, an informativeness proxy.     

Social trust and foreign ownership: Evidence from qualified foreign institutional investors in China

We investigate the effects of social trust on foreign institutional investors’ equity holdings in listed Chinese firms from 2005 to 2011. We find that social trust embedded in the regional environment is an important factor for the investment decisions of foreign institutional investors. We also find that the proportion and likelihood of foreign ownership increases with the level of social trust. The results support the notion that social trust and trust-related information help mitigate informational barriers in international equity investments. Our results are robust to alternative measures of social trust and a range of model specifications, including instrumental variable estimation. We document that the effects of social trust on foreign ownership diminishes in the presence of organizational learning, better formal institutional development, conservative financial reporting, and asset transparency. We also show that foreign institutional investors from countries with a common law origin are more likely to incorporate trust-related information in their investment decisions.     

The growth in equity market size and trading activity: An international study

This paper presents new evidence on the role of macroeconomic and institutional factors in equity market development and on the sources of equity market growth. Using panel data on 33 countries, I find that development of financial intermediaries and trade openness are positively associated with equity market size, and that development of financial intermediaries is also positively associated with the level of activity in equity markets. Government consumption is negatively associated with equity market activity. I construct a direct estimate of the effect of institutional factors on equity market development that compares a country's actual level of development to a hypothetical “best-practice” country having the same macroeconomic fundamentals as the original country. I show that the level of equity market development of an average country is around 30% below its maximum potential. There are wide differences in institutional characteristics across countries and over time, and Canada, the United States, and Singapore possess the most shareholder-friendly institutional frameworks that foster larger and more active equity markets. It appears that institutional improvements and changes in financial technology have provided the major impetus for the phenomenal expansion of global equity markets.     

The Informational Efficiency of the Equity Market As Compared to the Syndicated Bank Loan Market

The loan market is a hybrid between a public and a private market, comprised of financial institutions with access to private information about borrowing firms. We test whether this is reflected in informationally efficient price formation in the loan market vis-a-vis the equity markets, and reject this private information hypothesis. We also reject a liquidity hypothesis which suggests that equity markets always lead loan markets, despite bank lenders' access to private information, because of greater liquidity in equity markets. We further test, and reject, an asymmetric price reaction hypothesis that states that loan returns are more sensitive to negative information whereas equity returns respond symmetrically to both positive and negative information. We find evidence most consistent with an integrated markets hypothesis that suggests that both the equity and syndicated bank loan markets are highly integrated such that information flows freely across markets. This is particularly true when the equity market makers are also loan syndicate members.      

Financial development and innovation: Cross-country evidence

We examine how financial market development affects technological innovation. Using a large data set that includes 32 developed and emerging countries and a fixed effects identification strategy, we identify economic mechanisms through which the development of equity markets and credit markets affects technological innovation. We show that industries that are more dependent on external finance and that are more high-tech intensive exhibit a disproportionally higher innovation level in countries with better developed equity markets. However, the development of credit markets appears to discourage innovation in industries with these characteristics. Our paper provides new insights into the real effects of financial market development on the economy.     

信任半径、声誉效应与民间金融组织的演化和发展

作为一种非正式制度安排,基于重复博弈和关联博弈的声誉机制对于民间金融组织的存在和发展起着重要作用,但这种作用仅限于特定的信任半径内。随着信任半径的不断扩展,民间金融组织实现由低级向高级演化。然而,民间金融组织和正规金融组织有各自特定的信任半径,通过正规金融来收编民间金融的做法是不可取的,政府应积极引导民间金融组织的发展,使其合法化并通过合理的制度安排实现民间金融组织的变迁。     

Does it pay to be socially connected with wall street brokerages? Evidence from cost of equity

We show that social connections between a firm's executives and directors and brokerages that follow the firm decrease the firm's cost of equity. We use quasi-natural experiments to address endogeneity concerns and find that the uncovered effect of firm-brokerage social connections on cost of equity is likely causal. The effect is found to be more pronounced for firms with more soft information, opaque information environments, tight financial constraints, weak corporate monitoring, or high executive equity ownership. Further, consistent with the evidence on cost of equity, we find that firm-brokerage social connections reduce SEO underpricing, decrease information asymmetry in stock markets, and improve the firm's equity valuation.     

The IPO of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the ‘Chinese Model’ of privatizing large financial institutions

We examine the privatization process of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the largest bank in the world by market capitalization, and its dual initial public offerings (IPOs) in the Hong Kong and Shanghai Stock exchanges in 2006. The Chinese government retains majority equity ownership of ICBC while foreign institutional investors hold minority equity stakes. Other large financial institutions went through the same reform process and have similar, post-IPO ownership structures. The largest Chinese banks, as a group, outperformed their counterparts from other emerging and developed markets before and during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. We argue that the ‘Chinese model’ of privatizing and managing large financial institutions can be advantageously used in other countries.     

Is Investment‐Cash Flow Sensitivity Caused by Agency Costs or Asymmetric Information? Evidence from the UK

We investigate the investment‐cash flow sensitivity of a large sample of the UK listed firms and confirm that investment is strongly cash flow‐sensitive. Is this sensitivity a result of agency problems when managers with high discretion overinvest, or of asymmetric information when managers owning equity are underinvesting if the market (erroneously) demands too high a risk premium? We find that investment‐cash flow sensitivity results mainly from the agency costs of free cash flow. The magnitude of the relationship depends on insider ownership in a non‐monotonic way. Furthermore, we obtain that outside blockholders, such as financial institutions, the government, and industrial firms (only at high control levels), reduce the cash flow sensitivity of investment via effective monitoring. Finally, financial institutions appear to play a role in mitigating informational asymmetries between firms and capital markets. We corroborate our findings by performing additional tests based on the stochastic efficient frontier approach and power indices.     

Measuring managerial equity ownership: a comparison of sources of ownership data

This paper demonstrates that differences in managerial ownership data cannot explain contradictory empirical evidence on the relation between equity ownership and the entrenchment of managers. Three commonly used sources of managerial equity ownership data are described and contrasted. The Value Line Investment Survey is shown to be a relatively low-cost substitute for the data on beneficial ownership by officers and directors found in corporate proxy statements.     

Explaining when developing countries liberalize their financial equity markets

This paper is the first to explain when countries opened their financial equity markets and is the first to explain financial liberalization using a large sample of developing countries. We test several novel hypotheses. We find that equity markets are opened earlier in countries that trade more with developed countries and that have more developed financial markets. Equity markets are opened earlier in democracies, especially if the country's leader is a civilian. Our other findings are consistent with the literature, which has found greater financial market openness in countries receiving more FDI, in richer countries, and in democracies.     

Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks

Recent macroeconomic experience has drawn attention to the importance of interdependence among countries through financial markets and institutions, independently of traditional trade linkages. This paper develops a model of the international transmission of shocks due to interdependent portfolio holdings among leverage‐constrained investors. In our model, without leverage constraints on investment, financial integration itself has no implication for international macro comovements. When leverage constraints bind, however, the presence of these constraints in combination with diversified portfolios introduces a powerful financial transmission channel that results in a positive comovement of production, independently of the size of international trade linkages. In addition, the paper shows that with binding leverage constraints, the type of financial integration is critical for international comovement. If international financial markets allow for trade only in noncontingent bonds, but not equities, then the international comovement of shocks is negative. Thus, with leverage constraints, moving from bond trade to equity trade reverses the sign of the international transmission of shocks.     

The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets

The paper analyzes whether, and to what extent, emerging market economies (EMEs) have systemic importance for global financial markets, above and beyond their influence during crises episodes. Using a novel database of exogenous economic and political shocks for 14 systematically relevant EMEs, we find that EME shocks not only have a statistically but also economically significant impact on global equity markets. The economic significance of EME shocks is in particular underlined by their remarkably persistent effects over time. Importantly, EMEs are found to influence global equity markets about just as much in “good” times as in “bad” times, though they tend to be stronger during crises or periods of financial turbulence. Finally, we detect a large degree of heterogeneity in the transmission of EME shocks to individual countries' equity markets, stressing the different degrees of financial exposure, which is relatively higher for European equity markets.     

The Halloween Effect and Japanese Equity Prices: Myth or Exploitable Anomaly

Bouman and Jacobsen (American Economic Review 92(5), 1618–1635, 2002) examine monthly stock returns for major world stock markets and conclude that returns are significantly lower during the May–October periods versus the November–April periods in 36 of 37 markets examined. They argue that, in general, the Halloween strategy outperforms the buy and hold strategy thereby casting doubt on the validity of the efficient market paradigm. More recently, Maberly and Pierce (Econ Journal Watch 1(1), 29–46, 2004) re-examine the evidence for U.S. equity prices and conclude that Bouman and Jacobsen’s results are not robust to alternative model specifications. Extending prior research, this paper examines the robustness of the Halloween strategy to alternative model specifications for Japanese equity prices. The Halloween effect is concentrated in the period prior to the introduction of Nikkei 225 index futures in September 1986. After the internationalization of Japanese financial markets in the mid-1980s, the Halloween effect disappears.JEL classification: G14, G15     

Market and Model Credit Default Swap Spreads: Mind the Gap!

Structural models of default establish a relation across the fair values of various asset classes (equity, bonds, credit derivatives) referring to the same company. In most circumstances such relation is verified in practice, as different financial assets tend to move in the same direction at similar speed. However, occasional deviations from the theoretical fair values occur, especially in times of financial turmoil. Understanding how the dynamics of the theoretical fair values of various assets compares to that of their market values is crucial to a number of market participants. This paper investigates whether a popular structural model, the CreditGrades approach proposed by Finger (2002) , Stamicar and Finger (2005) , succeeds in explaining the dynamic relation between equity/option variables and Credit Default Swap (CDS) premia at individual company level. We find that CDS model spreads display a significant correlation with CDS market spreads. However, the gap between the two is time varying and widens substantially in times of financial turbulence. The analysis of the gap dynamics reveals that this is partly due to episodes of decoupling between equity and credit markets, and partly due to shortcomings of the model. Finally, we observe that model spreads tend to predict market spreads.     

Creditor rights and the corporate bond market

This study examines whether investor protection affects capital markets, specifically the development of corporate bond markets versus equity markets. Using a dataset of 42 countries, we show that countries with strong creditor rights have more developed corporate bond markets than equity markets. However, we find only weak evidence that countries with stronger shareholder protection have more developed equity markets than corporate bond markets. Additionally, we find that the effect of financial reforms on capital markets is strongly dependent on the strength of investor protection and on the associated information disclosure in a given country.     

Sources of Corporate Financing and Operating Performance: The effects of strategic ownership and financial restatements

Using a sample from European markets this study documents that changes in external financing, both in the form of equity and debt, can predict future operating performance (profitability and cash flows). In terms of future profitability, increases in equity (debt) financing particularly benefit large-size growth firms (large-size value firms). It is notable that a firm environment of low information quality, indicated by the presence of accounting restatements, intensifies the association between external financing and operating performance, due to the heightened scrutiny investors/lenders apply to firms that have recently restated their financials. In addition, strategic ownership in the firm has no significant effect on the financing – operating profitability association but may amplify the positive effects of equity financing on future operating cash flows. Moreover, financial analysts' forecasts of operating profitability and operating cash flows reflect the impact of external financing changes on future operating performance but exhibit a financing-related systematic inefficiency particularly for firms that have recently announced a material restatement of their prior financial results. Finally, controlling for information contained in analyst forecast surprises, the market is efficient overall and incorporates the effects of equity and debt financing changes into stock prices.     

A New Database on the Structure and Development of the Financial Sector

This article introduces a new database of indicators of financialstructure and financial development across countries and overtime. The database is unique in that it combines a wide varietyof indicators that measure the size, activity, and efficiencyof financial intermediaries and markets. It improves on previousefforts by presenting data on the public share of commercialbanks, introducing indicators of the size and activity of nonbankfinancial institutions, and constructing measures of the sizeof bond and primary equity markets.     

Trust,happiness, and households’ financial decisions

A recent line of research highlights trust as an important element guiding the decision of households to invest into risky financial assets and insurance products. This paper contributes to this literature by identifying happiness as another key driver of the same decision. Using detailed survey data from a sample of Dutch households, we show that the impact of happiness on households’ financial decisions works in the opposite direction and is more economically important compared to trust. Specifically, happiness leads to a lower probability of investing into risky financial assets and having insurance, while trust has the usual positive effect found in the literature. Furthermore, the negative effect of happiness on the ownership of risky financial assets is about 6% higher compared to the positive equivalent of trust. Similarly, the negative effect of happiness on the ownership of insurance is 3% higher than the positive effect of trust.