The rise of dollar credit in emerging market economies and US monetary policy

This paper examines the hypothesis that the boom in dollar credit in emerging market economies (EMEs) is associated with an excessively low interest rate in the US. For this purpose, we use a multivariate correlated unobserved component model that allows for correlation between shocks to dollar credit, cross‐border interest rate gaps—measured as the difference between emerging market interest rate and the US interest rate, and dollar index both in the short run and in the long run. In addition, it also provides us a quantitative estimate of the permanent and transitory movements in dollar credit in EMEs, interest rate gaps and dollar index. The results from this model do suggest that a temporary increase in interest rate gaps and decline in the dollar index are associated with a temporary increase in the dollar credit in EMEs with a very high degree of correlation. The estimate of the cyclical component of the dollar credit in EMEs from our model captures the recent boom and bust in this market and compares favourably to alternative trend–cycle decomposition methods.     

Consumer education and empowerment in Europe: recent developments in policy and practice

This article develops the findings of an evaluation of European Commission consumer education, information and capacity building actions conducted in 2011, with an examination of action taken by 2016 to address the recommendations. Based on empirical research of documents, in‐depth interviews, focus groups and semi‐structured surveys of Directorate General for Health and Consumers and Directorate General for Education and Culture policy networks, it discusses the journey taken to improve consumer education and empowerment throughout Europe. Implementation of the recommendations aims to transform consumer education and empowerment in Europe, with integrated and updated resources for the maximum number of teachers across the European Union, where teachers can focus the resources on consumer education activities relevant for their learners. A key focus of the new developments is to deliver higher European Union (pan‐European) added‐value, better coordination and synergies with national activities.     

Consumer education in the UK: new developments in policy,strategy and implementation

Consumer education is an integral part of the European Community's consumer policy. It plays a key role in consumer empowerment, helping consumers gain the skills, attitudes and knowledge they need to be able to gear the choices they make as consumers to their economic interests and to protect their health and safety. In its policy statement, the Directorate General for Health and Consumer Protection states that the European Community is aware that joint measures at national and Community levels should be more structured, in order to achieve maximum effectiveness. This paper aims to set out the current policy and strategic context for consumer education and empowerment in the UK; review the role of UK government bodies and other agencies concerned with developments; review recent literature; present the results of interviews with an extensive range of key stakeholders and the results of a survey of service heads for trading standards throughout the UK. It will consider implementation, partnership, resources, ideas and opportunities. The research found that the agenda for consumer education in the UK is at an interesting stage of development. The Enterprise Act 2002 gives the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) a statutory power to carry out educational activities. Consumer education is also moving up the agenda in the trading standards service. In addition, the teaching of citizenship in English schools is already stimulating new developments in consumer education. The paper will consider the need for organizations like these to work together to build on these policy developments and ensure that consumer education gains the profile it needs to influence consumer attitudes and behaviour.     

我国货币政策信贷传导渠道:理论模型及实证分析

在一般均衡模型中,货币政策信贷传导机制主要通过利差的均衡调整过程来实现。基于VAR模型的脉冲响应分析结果表明,1998-2007年期间信贷渠道在我国货币政策传导机制中占有重要地位,货币政策效果不佳与信贷渠道梗阻密切相关。短期货币政策操作应充分关注信贷市场动态状况。坚持堵疏结合的原则切实缓解流动性过剩,提高紧缩性货币政策的效力。     

消费信用与消费者破产研究

消费信用与消费者破产之间存在密切的联系。进入消费者破产程序的消费者必然有无法偿还的债务,而消费者只有接受了消费信用,才可能成为债务人,因此,消费信用是消费者破产的根本原因。消费信用越容易获得,消费者过度负债的可能性就越高,相应地,消费者对宽松的消费者破产制度的需求就越强烈。从消费市场的繁荣程度和消费者破产数量的关系来看,二者是成正比关系的。消费者破产制度作为消费信用的回收制度将影响消费信用的供给与需求,促进信用体系的建设。消费信用在我国进入快速发展时代,从控制社会危机的角度来看,消费者破产制度的建立已经迫在眉睫。     

Consumer credit card ownership and usage practices: empirical evidence from Sri Lanka

Knowledge that has been accumulated through research efforts concerning credit card ownership and usage behaviour has been confined to Western societies. Given the importance of cross‐national application of consumer marketing concepts and propositions for academic and practical reasons, investigations are needed to test whether consumer credit card usage patterns that are assumed to exist in the West also exist in non‐Western parts of the world, especially in Asia. Therefore, objectives of this research were to explore credit card ownership and usage practices in Sri Lanka, and to explore the relationship between credit card ownership and usage practices, and demographic and socio‐economic characteristics of credit card users. The findings offer implications for researchers and practitioners.     

Consumer bankruptcy in Utah (USA): who files and why?

This study examined consumer debtors who filed for bankruptcy and their reasons for filing in Utah, the U.S. state that ranked first in household filing rate in 2002–2004 and consistently ranks in the top ten of the 50 states. The purpose of the study was to determine the demographic characteristics of debtors and reasons for filing. Data were collected during 2004–2005 via survey from 508 debtors. The debtors reported employment problems, medical expenses, divorce or other family problems, as well as trouble managing their finances and overuse of credit cards. More than half of the debtors owed medical providers. Debtors were more likely to report a reduction in income than job loss. Self‐employed persons were over represented. Respondent debtors are less educated, less likely to be married and less likely to own a home compared with Utahns and other Americans. Contrary to expectations, debtor households were smaller than the state average, which may be due to the young age of debtors. Results suggest that in order to reduce the bankruptcy rate in Utah, consumer educators should target renters, adults with less than a college education, divorcing persons and small business owners. Utah's mandate for a personal finance graduation requirement should be implemented early in the secondary school curriculum.     

The impact of monetary and tax policy on income inequality in Japan

This paper assesses the effects of the most recent monetary policy behaviour of the Bank of Japan (in particular, zero interest rate policy and negative interest rate policy) and Japanese tax policy on income inequality in this country during the period of 2002Q1 to 2017Q3. The vector error correction model (VECM) that develops in this research shows that increase in money stock (m1) through Quantitative Easing (QE) and Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) policies of the BOJ significantly increases the income inequality. On the contrary, Japanese tax policy was effective in reducing the income inequality. Variance decomposition results show that increasing of income inequality by monetary policy is larger when comparing to decreasing effects of tax policy on income inequality. Cointegration and VECM results show that monetary policy has both short-run and long-run impacts but for tax policy paper could not find any significant short-run impact on income inequality. In addition, paper found that technological progress only in long-run can reduce the income inequality by increasing the marginal productivity of labour with positive impacts on employment and wages.     

Export-led growth and the Four Little Dragons

This paper examines the hypothesis of export-led growth for the ‘Four Little Dragons' in Asia. The framework of analysis is a five-variable vector autoregressive model. The relationship between exports and output is evaluated through the computation of variance decompositions, impulse response functions, and cointegration. The variance decompositions indicate significant feedback relations between exports and output. The impulse response functions indicate significant, positive feedback effects in the short run. The cointegration test, however, does not yield similar results for the long-run relations. The results are at odds with the export-led growth hypothesis, but the short-run results appear consistent with the feedback model in which export promotion and economic growth reinforce each other in the process of economic development.     

当前适度宽松货币政策之冷思考

百年不遇的国际金融危机沉重打击了世界经济,也给中国经济发展带来了严重影响,危机面前,中国政府积极应对。但是,全球形势瞬息万变,中国经济回稳的基础尚不巩固,宏观经济未来走势仍有较大不确定性。首先分析当前适度宽松货币政策的必要性,然后从银行风险、通货膨胀压力、资产泡沫滋生风险来探讨当前货币政策的潜在风险,最后提出了防范以上潜在风险的措施。     

Fiscal policy,monetary policy and external imbalances: Cross-country evidence from Africa's three largest economies

This paper determines which of the three policy approaches: fiscal, monetary and exchange rate can better address external imbalances in the three largest African economies, Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt. To this end, use is made of the panel vector autoregressive model to assess the dynamic effects of shocks emanating from the three policy approaches. The findings of the paper indicate that unlike in many emerging and developed economies the current accounts of these three economies react to fiscal, monetary and exchange rate shocks. More particular, the results of the empirical analysis show that the appreciations of the currencies in the three economies lead to current account surpluses. This is mainly attributed to the fact that most African economies have a high propensity to import with limited productive capacity for exports.     

Optimal monetary policy in a currency area

This paper investigates how monetary policy should be conducted in a two-region general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition and price stickiness. This framework delivers a simple welfare criterion based on the utility of the consumers that can be used to evaluate monetary policy in a currency area. If the two regions share the same degree of nominal rigidity, the terms of trade are completely insulated from monetary policy and the optimal outcome is obtained by targeting a weighted average of the regional inflation rates. These weights coincide with the economic sizes of the region. If the degrees of rigidity are different, the optimal plan implies a high degree of inertia in the inflation rate. But an inflation targeting policy in which higher weight is given to the inflation in the region with higher degree of nominal rigidity is nearly optimal.     

国债规模:在财政与金融之间寻求平衡

本文从财政政策和货币政策协调配合角度,探讨了国债在金融体系中的特殊地位和作用,着重分析了国债市场作为核心金融市场在提供市场流动性方面的不可替代的作用.本文的政策含义就是,为了给我国的金融市场运行创造一个良好的基础,我们的国债政策应当超越单纯财政的财政眼光.     

我国货币政策效应时滞的实证研究

在分析西方货币理论的基础上 ,运用向量自回归模型和方差分解技术对我国货币政策的效应时滞进行实证研究 ,得出我国货币政策无论是对经济产业还是对物价水平均存在一定的效应时滞 ,我国货币政策的价格时滞效应长于产业效应时滞 ,不同的货币供应量效应时滞不同等结论。     

中国经济增长中货币政策与财政政策有效性的比较检验

本文通过一个广义货币供应量、财政支出和国内生产总值三变量向量误差修正模型(VECM)考察中国1978—2005年间货币政策和财政政策对经济增长影响的差异性特征。在应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法研究它们之间的动态特性后发现:积极货币政策的经济增长效果无论在短期还是长期内均要强于财政政策,长期内,积极货币政策对经济增长一直有递减的正效应,但是积极财政政策由于挤出效应的影响,长期内对经济增长呈负效应。     

Consumer empowerment: public policy and insurance regulation

This paper explores consumer advocacy as it applies to insurance regulation based on the literature and on the author's experience as a consumer representative and member of the Board of Trustees for the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC). The NAIC, founded in 1871, is a non‐profit voluntary organization of the chief insurance regulatory officials of the 50 states, the District of Columbia, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. One of its key objectives is to facilitate the fair and equitable treatment of consumers. Each year 13–16 consumer representatives are selected to speak for consumers at national meetings in addition to serving as year‐round resources to consumers, attorneys representing consumers, regulators, and other groups. Readers of the paper are encouraged to participate more fully in the public policy process. Although the focus of this paper is on insurance and regulation in the USA, the guiding principles apply to other nations, organizations, and consumer causes.     

Consumer policy and consumer empowerment: comparing the historic development in Finland and Germany

This article traces the trajectories of consumer policy in Finland and Germany in the light of a comparative history in order to reflect upon the notion of consumer empowerment in public policy. The principle developments of contemporary consumer policy can be traced back to the post‐war political and economic integrations arising from the initial idea of free markets and individual freedom emphasized in classical liberalism. The article explores this development in Finland and Germany to the point of the establishment of a joint European Union (EU) consumer policy to reveal the notion of consumer empowerment. This approach creates an understanding of the peculiarities of consumer policy in EU member states despite the presence of a joint European policy area. Nowadays, both Finnish and German consumers find EU regulations excessive. It is important to acknowledge the influence of this historic development in order to understand what consumer empowerment meant in the past and thus to further develop policy action on a joint level.     

Competent consumers? Consumer competence profiles in Norway

Consumer competence is increasingly important in today’s commercialized society. This paper refers to some main findings from a national representative survey on consumer competences and practices in Norway. To be a competent consumer, it is decisive to be informed about products and to be familiar with how markets function. In this paper, consumers’ self‐reported efforts to keep themselves informed about specific markets is treated as an indicator of consumer competence. First, the results indicate that Norwegian consumers’ competence, according to their own judgement, is rather mediocre. Second, different groups of consumers seem to have different consumer competence profiles. Accordingly, we find that some consumers are price‐conscious in their daily purchases, others are price‐conscious when they make their yearly dispositions in the financial markets, while a third group is community‐oriented and active in the environmentally friendly and ethical product markets. Third, the analysis indicates that consumer competence is an important indicator of how market‐rational and reflective consumers’ choices and practices are.     

The impact of monetary policy on oil price persistence: An application of the smooth regime-switching model

This paper employs the smooth transition autoregressive model to evaluate the persistence of oil price changes, and chooses monetary policy variables as transition variables of the model to assess their roles in the persistence effects. The empirical results show that oil price changes displayed asymmetric adjustments within different regimes and were more sensitive to the movement of interest rates than inflation rate. In addition, high inflation rate would give rise to low oil price persistence, and expansionary monetary policy would bring about higher oil price persistence. Moreover, when the short- and long-term interest rates were over their threshold values, the persistence effects of oil price changes were opposite. In the present relatively low US interest rates, adopting either an inflation-targeting policy or/and a debt-financing policy to stimulate economic growth, the timing is appropriate and the effect will be positive and expected because of low persistence of oil price changes.