Unit Root Testing Using Covariates: Some Theory and Evidence

This paper analyzes the conditions under which power gains can be achieved using the Covariate Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (CADF) rather than the conventional Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), and argues that this method has the advantage, relative to univariate unit root tests, of increasing power without suffering from the large size distortions affecting the latter. The inclusion of covariates affects unit root testing by: (a) reducing the standard error of the estimate of the autoregressive parameter without affecting the estimate itself, and/or (b) reducing both the standard error and the absolute value of the estimate itself. Conditions in terms of contemporaneous correlation and Granger causality are derived for case (a) or (b) to arise. As an illustration, it is shown that applying the more powerful CADF (rather than the ADF) test reverses the finding of a unit root for many US macroeconomic series.     

Finance and Growth: Evidence from Some Arab Countries

Abstract

Some analysts contend that the ‘size effect’ -the higher returns associated with small-capitalization companies over those with large-capitalization, are a myth. Most empirical studies to date relate to U.S. stock exchanges. Since the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange is considered an ‘emerging market,’ it is valuable to explore this phenomenon in this market.

This empirical study considers the performance of individual stocks and two alternative portfolios. The results show that the ‘size effect’ does not exist on the TASE, and that the large-capitalization stocks and portfolios generated higher returns versus their small-capitalization counterparts. Thus, the ‘size effect’ may only be a myth.     

Causality between taxes and expenditures: Evidence from Latin American countries

The paper applies the techniques of cointegration and Hsiao’s version of the Granger causality method to examine the causality between taxes and expenditures for eight Latin American countries. The findings of bidirectional causality between taxes and expenditures in Chile, Panama, Brazil, and Peru indicate that taxes and expenditures are jointly determined. This study, however, detects causality running one way from taxes to expenditures in Columbia, the Dominican Republic, Honduras, and Paraguay. Taken together, this study strongly rejects the spend-and-tax hypothesis. (JEL C320, E620)     

The Flexible Fourier Form and Local Generalised Least Squares De‐trended Unit Root Tests*

In two recent papers Enders and Lee (2009) and Becker, Enders and Lee (2006) provide Lagrange multiplier and ordinary least squares de‐trended unit root tests, and stationarity tests, respectively, which incorporate a Fourier approximation element in the deterministic component. Such an approach can prove useful in providing robustness against a variety of breaks in the deterministic trend function of unknown form and number. In this article, we generalize the unit root testing procedure based on local generalized least squares (GLS) de‐trending proposed by Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock (1996) to allow for a Fourier approximation to the unknown deterministic component in the same way. We show that the resulting unit root tests possess good finite sample size and power properties and the test statistics have stable non‐standard distributions, despite the curious result that their limiting null distributions exhibit asymptotic rank deficiency.     

Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment in OECD Countries: New Evidence using Stationarity Panel Tests with Breaks*

This paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries covering the period 1956–2001. The tests exploit the cross‐sectional variations of the series, and additionally, allow for a different number of endogenous breakpoints in the unemployment series. The critical values are simulated based on our specific panel sizes and time periods. The findings stress the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks in the series and support the natural‐rate hypothesis of unemployment for the majority of the countries analysed.     

Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from Long‐Horizon Regression Tests*

This article considers the long‐run relationship between nominal exchange rates and fundamentals from a different perspective. We apply a long‐horizon regression approach proposed by Fisher and Seater (1993) and find evidence supporting the explanatory power of exchange rate models. In particular, the Taylor‐rule model outperforms other conventional models. We then use the inverse power function (IPF) proposed by Andrews (1989) to investigate the power of the Fisher–Seater test. The IPF analysis provides additional evidence supporting exchange rate models.     

Environmental Compliance and Firm Performance: Evidence from China*

This article evaluates the impact of environmental compliance on firms’ innovation and financial performance using a panel dataset of Chinese firms for the period of 2000–5. Our results show certification of the ISO14000 has a significantly positive impact on firms’ profitability. This finding is robust when we take into account possible endogeneity of certification, effects of export and types of customers, and possible precertification time trends. In addition, we find that certified firms have larger per‐worker sales volumes and market shares in the country, which suggests an alternative mechanism for the Porter hypothesis in the context of a developing economy.     

Bundles of HRM practices and performance: empirical evidence from a Latin American context

This article examines the extent to which the configuration of HRM practices in bundles and the interactions among them have a significant impact on manufacturing outcomes. Using a unique data set from a survey of a representative sample of the whole Uruguayan manufacturing industry, several hypotheses related to interactions between ability–motivation–opportunity bundles of HRM practices are tested. Analysis of 150 manufacturing plants partially highlights the existence of hierarchy between bundles, being the bundle of motivation‐enhancing HRM practices the most important to explain the enhanced manufacturing outcomes. Based on this bundle of practices, synergistic interactions with both ability and opportunity bundles of HRM practices were observed to explain different performance measures.     

Precautionary and Entrepreneurial Savings: New Evidence from German Households*

Various studies interpret the positive correlation between income risk and wealth as evidence of significant precautionary savings. However, these high estimates emerge from pooling non‐entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs, without controlling for heterogeneity. This article provides evidence for Germany based on representative panel data that includes private wealth balance sheets. Entrepreneurs, who face high income risk, hold more wealth than employees, but this tendency is not because of precautionary motives. Instead, they appear to save more for their old age, because they are usually not covered by statutory pension insurance. The analysis accounts for endogeneity in entrepreneurial choice and heterogeneous risk attitudes.     

Political Influence and the Banking Sector: Evidence from Korea*

This paper uses panel data to compare the performance of Korean banks with and without effective government control of the appointment of chief operating officers. A privatization programme succeeded in spreading ownership of banks widely among the public, but government retention of an ownership stake in an institution meant de facto control by government. Despite charging lower loan rates, banks controlled by government experience higher bad loans ratios. This is in line with expectations of regulatory forbearance and government protection for recipients of political loans. Banks controlled by government are less efficient than privately controlled banks and bad loan variables are higher at banks with lower efficiency scores.     

Strategizing Environmental Policy and Compliance for Firm Economic Sustainability: Evidence from Taiwanese Electronics Firms

This study aims to examine whether the compliance of environmental policies can sustain firm economic performance, and whether a timing issue is relevant to firm economic sustainability in pursuit of eco‐friendly efforts. Offering models predominantly based on the institutional theory, this study tests hypotheses using data from 284 companies in the electronics sector in Taiwan during the period from 1997 to 2010. The findings reveal that the execution of environment policies mostly improves firm economic sustainability and some joint green efforts can even strengthen such sustainability; however, firms aiming to sustain their economic performance should not hasten to undertake eco‐friendly efforts, implying that first movers may not be guaranteed firm economic performance. Thus, managers should carefully strategize their green efforts to comply with environmental policies, and execute them in due course to prevent disadvantages, such as market uncertainty and complexity of green practices, while conquering organizational inertia. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Tied Migration and Subsequent Employment: Evidence from Couples in Britain*

We use unique information on migration behaviour and reasons for migration to study the impact of tied migration on labour market outcomes among husbands and wives. Fewer than 2% of couples migrate for job‐related reasons and the majority of these move for reasons associated with the husband's job. Estimates from dynamic random‐effects models indicate that husbands and wives in couples that migrated for job‐related reasons suffer lower job retention rates than non‐migrants. Tied migration reduces the probability of subsequent employment for both husbands and wives and in particular has a large negative impact on job retention rates among wives.     

Frontier Technology and Absorptive Capacity: Evidence from OECD Manufacturing Industries*

In this paper, we examine the three facets of technology: its creation, dispersion and absorption. We investigate whether differences in absorptive capacity help to explain cross‐country differences in the level of productivity. We utilize stochastic frontier analysis to investigate two potential sources of this inefficiency – differences in human capital and R&D – for nine industries in 12 Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries over the period 1973–91. We find that inefficiency in production does indeed exist and it depends upon the level of human capital of the country's workforce. Evidence that the amount of R&D an industry undertakes is also important is less robust.     

Social Security and elderly labor supply: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study

This study uses panel data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to estimate the effects of Social Security income on elderly labor supply in the 1990s and early 2000s. The identification strategy takes advantage of the 1977 amendments to the Social Security Act, which led to a large, unanticipated reduction in Social Security benefits for those born after January 1, 1917. Despite the advanced age of the notch cohorts, there is a significant, negative and surprisingly elastic relationship between Social Security income and hours of work. This suggests that currently proposed reductions in benefits would induce Social Security recipients to work more hours in retirement, even through their 70s and early 80s.     

The Yen Real Exchange Rate may be Stationary after all: Evidence from Non‐linear Unit‐root Tests*

The empirical literature that tests for purchasing power parity (PPP) by focusing on the stationarity of real exchange rates has so far provided, at best, mixed results. The behaviour of the yen real exchange rate has most stubbornly challenged the PPP hypothesis and deepened this puzzle. This paper contributes to this discussion by providing new evidence on the stationarity of bilateral yen real exchange rates. We employ a non‐linear version of the augmented Dickey–Fuller test, based on an exponentially smooth‐transition autoregressive model (ESTAR) that enhances the power of the tests against mean‐reverting non‐linear alternative hypotheses. Our results suggest that the bilateral yen real exchange rates against the other G7 and Asian currencies were mean reverting during the post‐Bretton Woods era. Thus, the real yen behaviour may not be so different after all but simply perceived to be so because of the use of a restrictive alternative hypothesis in previous tests.     

Examining the Interaction between Saving and Contributions to Personal Pension Plans: Evidence from the BHPS*

This paper analyses the effects of social security reforms on saving in Britain. We use the British Household Panel Survey to investigate the interactions between voluntary additional contributions to personal pension plans (PPP) and saving in conventional forms. In particular, we test whether contributions to the PPP crowd out saving or constitute additional saving. Results suggest that not only have private pension schemes not crowded out private saving, but actually they have increased it too.     

Foetal Exposure to Air Pollution and Students' Cognitive Performance: Evidence from Agricultural Fires in Brazil*

This paper examines the impact of foetal exposure to air pollution from agricultural fires on Brazilian students' cognitive performance later in life. We rely on comparisons across children who were upwind and downwind of the fires while in utero to address concerns around sorting and temporary income shocks. Our findings show that agricultural fires increase $$, resulting in significant negative effects on pupils' scores in Portuguese and Maths in the $$ grade through prenatal exposure. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that a 1% reduction in $$ from agricultural burning has the potential to increase later life wages by 2.6%.     

Economic Integration and Regional Business Cycles: Evidence from the Iberian Regions*

This paper provides evidence of the positive impact of economic integration on EU regions’ business cycles convergence by focusing on two neighbouring countries: Spain and Portugal. We show that while a rise in cross‐country business cycle correlation has also been experienced by other European countries, it has been relatively more pronounced for Iberian regions. Econometric evidence suggests that the existence of an administrative border, the economic size of regions and their industrial structures can explain a substantial proportion of regional cycles.     

Parental Divorce and Students’ Performance: Evidence from Longitudinal Data*

In this article, we analysed data from the National Education Longitudinal Study to investigate whether experiencing parental divorce during adolescence had an adverse impact on students’ performance on standardized tests. To account for the potential endogeneity of parental divorce we employed double and triple difference models that rely on observing teenagers from intact and divorced backgrounds before and after the divorce occurs. We found that parental divorce does not negatively affect teenagers’ cognitive skills. Our results also suggest that cross‐sectional estimates overstate the detrimental effect of parental divorce.     

Land Sales and Rental Markets in Transition: Evidence from Rural Vietnam*

Impact and desirability of land transfers in post‐socialist‐transition economies have been subject of considerable debate. We use data from Vietnam to identify factors conducive to the development of land markets and to assess potentially differential impacts of rental and sales. Results show that both rental and sales transfer land to more productive producers but that rental is more important for the poor to access land that becomes available as the non‐farm economy develops. The fact that secure land rights significantly increase supply of land to the rental market suggests that government has a key role in facilitating emergence and functioning of efficiency‐enhancing land markets.