Determinants of Sovereign Eurobonds Yield Spread

We examine the determinants of sovereign Eurobond spread at issuance covering 1991–2000. The results of the regression models showed that yield spread increases with maturity, issue size and gross fees and decreases with credit rating and the number of managers. Higher‐grade issuers also pay a relatively higher spread to borrow long‐term funds and for smaller issues. The findings are consistent with the notion of a term structure 'liquidity premium.' Low‐grade issuers pay a higher spread than better‐rated countries. However, low‐grade countries pay high spread for larger funds. Credit rating is found to provide additional information in explaining the spread on sovereign Eurobonds beyond that provided by macroeconomic variables.     

The index fund rationality paradox

Mutual funds that track the S&P 500 are popular because they have significantly lower costs than the average, actively managed equity fund. However, a measurable number of investors select index funds with excessive fees and uncompetitive returns. We call this observation the Index Fund Rationality Paradox because it conflicts with the belief that index fund investors are making a rational, low-cost choice in their ‘type of fund’ decision. In our analysis of this paradox, we find that both retail and institutional index investors tended to make better choices in recent years, but the cost of poor choices among both groups continues to be significant. In fact, we are able to identify an arguably naïve group of retail investors that seem to be unduly influenced by brokers and financial advisors. These investors are largely responsible for the remaining paradox.     

Implied Default Probability and Credit Derivatives

Recently many kinds of credit derivatives are traded in the market. The default probability implied in the market becomes important to price some credit derivatives. Also it is useful for managing the credit risk because it includes the market information. In this paper we show how to calculate the implied default probability in the default swap market or the defaultable bond market.This paper is developed from author’s master thesis (Matsumoto, 2000), Graduate School of Systems Management, the University of Tsukuba.     

企业债“信用价差之谜”的最新研究与未来展望

企业债的信用价差和预期违约损失之间的巨大差异，正在引起人们对“信用价差之谜”的日益关注。对“信用价差之谜”的代表性解释之一为信用价差分解理论，该理论的最新研究已经触及到了税收、风险溢价和流动性溢价等方面；代表性解释之二为信用风险分散困境理论，包括系统风险的不可分散性和可分散风险的难以分散性。此外，对“信用价差之谜”的探讨已经从发达债券市场过渡到新兴债券市场，并仍有待于进一步的研究。     

Ratings based capital adequacy for securitizations

This paper develops a framework to measure the exposure to systematic risk for pools of asset securitizations and measures empirically whether current ratings-based rules for regulatory capital of securitizations under Basel II and Basel III reflect this exposure. The analysis is based on a comprehensive US dataset on asset securitizations for the time period between 2000 and 2008. We find that the shortfall of regulatory capital during the Global Financial Crisis is strongly related to ratings. In particular, we empirically show that insufficient capital is allocated to tranches with the highest rating. These tranches account for the greatest part of the total issuance volumes. Furthermore, this paper is the first to calibrate risk weights which account for systematic risk and provide sufficient capital buffers to cover the exposure during similar economic downturns. These policy-relevant findings suggest a re-calibration of RBA risk weights and may contribute to the current efforts by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and others to re-establish sustainable securitization markets and to improve the stability of the financial system.     

Faster Implied Volatilities via the Implicit Function Theorem

We present a faster, more accurate technique for estimating implied volatility using the standard partial derivatives of the Black‐Scholes option‐pricing formula. Beside Newton‐Raphson and slower approximation methods, this technique is the first to provide an error tolerance, which is essential for practical application. All existing noniterative approximation methods do not provide error tolerances and have the potential for large errors.     

Short-term persistence in hybrid mutual fund performance: The role of style-shifting abilities

Our study analyzes the performance of hybrid mutual funds. Based on two extended Carhart models we determine total fund performance by comparing fund returns to investable fund-specific style benchmarks. Using daily returns and a quarterly measurement interval, we present an innovative return-based approach to decompose total performance into in-quarter abnormal performance and style-shifting performance. In addition, we split total style-shifting performance into active and passive components. In this context, we confirm possible benefits of these performance measures by analyzing several simulated investment strategies. Our empirical study covers 520 hybrid mutual funds from 10/1998 to 12/2009 and shows that hybrid mutual funds (i) do not outperform their benchmarks on average, (ii) partially show positive in-quarter abnormal performance and style-shifting abilities, and (iii) exhibit short-term persistence in in-quarter abnormal performance but not in style-shifting abilities.     

WINDOW DRESSING IN BOND MUTUAL FUNDS

We examine portfolio credit quality holding and daily return patterns in a large sample of bond mutual funds and document evidence of window dressing. Using portfolio credit quality holdings data, we find that bond funds on average hold significantly more government bonds during disclosure than nondisclosure, presumably to present a safer portfolio to shareholders. Multiple‐index market models estimated with daily returns data corroborate these findings. We detect differences in factor loadings on days surrounding disclosure dates that indicate systematic tilting of the portfolio toward higher quality instruments.     

The Drivers of Sovereign CDS Spread Changes: Local Versus Global Factors

We use daily data for a panel of 34 countries to investigate regional differences in sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) spread determinants and the significance of local versus global market factors. Similar to prior studies, we find a high level of commonality among CDS spreads, but our results show that this effect is stronger in Latin American CDS. The results of our quantile panel regression model show that although global forces drive spreads across the conditional distribution, changes in credit ratings are significant in explaining CDS spreads only in the upper quantiles. We also confirm the existence of regional differences in spread determinants.     

A simple continuous measure of credit risk

This paper introduces a simple parameterization for the risk-neutral default probability distributions for risky firms that are easily computed from quoted bond prices. The corresponding expected times to default have a particularly simple form and are proposed as a measure for credit risk. Being continuous in nature, times to default provide a much finer measure of risk than those provided by ratings agencies. Comparison with the ratings provided by Moody's and the distance to default measures calculated using the Merton [Merton, R. (1974). On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance, 2(2), 449-470] model shows that the highest rank correlation is found between the proposed time to default measure and Moody's ratings.     

Ratings Competition in the CMBS Market

We consider the relationship between competition among credit rating agencies and the ratings of commercial mortgage‐backed securities (CMBS) using data from 2002 to 2007. We characterize competition using Fitch's aggregate share of CMBS ratings and a measure of Fitch's deal‐specific market share constructed as the probability of Fitch being hired for a specific transaction. Controlling for deal characteristics, we find that subordination levels were lower when Fitch's aggregate and deal‐specific market shares were higher, which suggests that ratings competition yielded less stringent ratings when Fitch was a more significant competitor, although this effect dissipates when Fitch's market shares were high.     

The changing relationship between earnings expectations and earnings for value and growth stocks during Reg FD

Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) altered the voluntary disclosure practices of firms with publicly traded securities, thereby affecting relationships between value and growth stock expectations and actual earnings. The results show that earnings forecasts for both stock groups are biased but that bias is less after the introduction of Reg FD. In fact, the difference in pre/post FD forecast bias is larger for growth stocks, suggesting that before Reg FD, analysts did not just misinterpret news but consciously tried to maintain relationships with growth firm managers. However, Reg FD limited these relationships severing the monetary advantage that might be gained from manipulating forecasts.     

The alpha and omega of fund of hedge fund added value

In spite of a somewhat disappointing performance throughout the crisis, investors are showing interest in hedge funds. Still, funds of hedge funds keep on experiencing outflows. Can this phenomenon be explained by the failure of fund of hedge fund managers to deliver on their promise to add value through active management, or is it symptomatic of a move toward greater disintermediation in the hedge fund industry? We introduce a return-based attribution model allowing for a full decomposition of fund of hedge fund performance. The results of our empirical study suggest that funds of hedge funds are funds of funds like others. Strategic allocation turns out to be a crucial step in the investment process, in that it not only adds value over the long-term, but most importantly, it brings resilience precisely when investors need it the most. Fund picking, on the other hand, turns out to be a double-edged sword.     

信用衍生产品隐含相关性结构研究

信用衍生产品在信用风险管理领域日益流行。其标的资产池的违约相关性结构在信用衍生产品定价、信用组合多元化和信用组合风险管理中具有重要作用。本文通过复制信用衍生产品中存在的隐含相关性微笑曲线现象,研究信用衍生产品标的信用的违约相关性结构。结果表明,本文使用的研究方法能够较好地给出标的信用合约间的违约相关性结构,同时,本文从风险管理角度研究了算法的有效性、计算效率和稳健性,并给出了相应的解释。     

Causes and consequences of short-term institutional herding

This paper provides new evidence on the causes and consequences of herding by institutional investors. Using a comprehensive database of every transaction made by financial institutions in the German stock market, we show that institutions exhibit herding behavior on a daily basis. Herding intensity depends on stock characteristics including past returns and volatility. Return reversals indicate a destabilizing impact of herds on stock prices in the short term. Results from panel regressions suggest that herding is mainly unintentional and partly driven by the use of similar risk models. Our findings confirm the importance of macro-prudential aspects for banking regulation.     

Quantifying the Costs of Investment Limits for Chilean Pension Funds*

Since the creation of the Chilean pension fund industry in 1981, pension fund administrators have not been free to choose their investment portfolios because of stringent regulation of investment limits. The diagnosis implicit with the imposition of limits was that the Chilean capital market was not deep, that there was an important demand for funds to finance the expansion of the productive sector and that, due to principal‐agent problems, protection for uninformed account holders was needed. As this regulation entails an inefficient combination of risk and return, this paper quantifies its costs.     

Credit Ratings and Bank Affiliation to Financial Holding Companies: Effects of Government Ownership and Financial Crisis

This study compares credit ratings between FHC affiliated banks and independent banks using Taiwan bank and FHC data. The results show banks that join Insurance- or Security-FHCs obtain better ratings than those that join Bank-FHCs. Second, banks that join FHCs with higher activity diversification can obtain better credit ratings. Third, joining government-owned FHCs enhances bank credit ratings and mitigates bank default risk compared to joining non-government-owned FHCs. Fourth, prior to the financial crisis, banks joining FHCs can obtain better credit ratings and reduce the cost of debt. However, during the financial crisis, rating agencies stopped regarding banks joining privately owned bank-based FHCs as risk diversification and assigning better credit ratings on this basis.     

Cross‐Listed Bonds,Information Asymmetry,and Conservatism in Credit Ratings

We propose information asymmetry as an additional explanation for rating conservatism. Because information asymmetry is likely higher for cross‐listed bonds than for U.S. bonds, we expect and find that cross‐listed bonds are rated more conservatively than U.S. domestic bonds at issuance. Further, cross‐listed bonds receive less frequent upgrades and take longer to be upgraded after issuance. Because lower ratings might also reflect higher default risk based on agencies’ private information, we conduct additional tests to discriminate between the rating conservatism and private information explanations. The results are consistent with ratings conservatism and inconsistent with the private information explanation.     

A dynamic model of active portfolio management with benchmark orientation

This paper studies optimal dynamic portfolios for investors concerned with the performance of their portfolios relative to a benchmark. Assuming that asset returns follow a multi-linear factor model similar to the structure of Ross (1976) [Ross, S., 1976. The arbitrage theory of the capital asset pricing model. Journal of Economic Theory, 13, 342–360] and that portfolio managers adopt a mean tracking error analysis similar to that of Roll (1992) [Roll, R., 1992. A mean/variance analysis of tracking error. Journal of Portfolio Management, 18, 13–22], we develop a dynamic model of active portfolio management maximizing risk adjusted excess return over a selected benchmark. Unlike the case of constant proportional portfolios for standard utility maximization, our optimal portfolio policy is state dependent, being a function of time to investment horizon, the return on the benchmark portfolio, and the return on the investment portfolio. We define a dynamic performance measure which relates portfolio’s return to its risk sensitivity. Abnormal returns at each point in time are quantified as the difference between the realized and the model-fitted returns. Risk sensitivity is estimated through a dynamic matching that minimizes the total fitted error of portfolio returns. For illustration, we analyze eight representative mutual funds in the U.S. market and show how this model can be used in practice.     

短期融资券发行利差结构分析

本文选取175只短期融资券为样本，研究各主要因素对短期融资券发行利差的影响。实证分析发现，短期融资券发行利差具有明显的期限结构，并受到发行规模、央票利率水平、企业性质和重大信用风险事件的显著影响，个另4行业和超大型企业也能享受一定的利差优惠。研究还表明，现阶段在发行人个体层面没有明显的利差结构性差异，表现为发行人财务指标对发行利差的影响不显著。