Employment Flows,Capital Mobility,and Policy Analysis

This article extends Hopenhayn and Rogerson's analysis of firing taxes by introducing a flexible form of capital and considering transitionary dynamics. The article finds that capital is not important for understanding the long run and welfare effects of firing taxes. However, capital is crucial for determining the short run consequences of eliminating this type of policy.     

Capitalism and democracy in the 21st century: a Kaleckian interpretation of a Schumpeterian problem

The paper reinterprets Schumpeter's views on the dynamic effects of taxation, as originally expressed in Crisis of the Tax State, from a Kaleckian perspective. In light of Schumpeter's rejection of Keynesian and Marshallian approaches to taxation, the paper argues that a recently developed Kaleckian approach provides an appropriate basis from which to analyse the effects on the business cycle of balanced changes in the structure of taxation. It is shown that, under certain shifting assumptions, increases in the taxation of wages or profits will stimulate investment and attenuate the amplitude of the business cycle. Ultimately, the shifting of taxes reduces to a conflict over income shares. The changing distribution of income in the United Kingdom in recent years suggests that investment is likely to remain sluggish unless there is a significant reversal of income shares. This may give rise to increasing economic and political tensions into the 21st century.     

Measuring the Chinese business cycle

This article documents the business cycle characteristics of the Chinese economy by adopting both nonparametric and parametric methodologies. The two approaches are applied to relevant macroeconomics indicators – Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production (IP) indices – aiming to investigate the growth cycle (deviation cycle). We provide a clear chronology of the Chinese growth cycle. One significant characteristic of the Chinese growth cycle is the relatively direct influence of government policies. However, recently these policy effects have become less significant when compared to global economic influences. Our study provides an enhanced understanding of the properties of business cycle dating algorithms and as such contributes to future Chinese business cycle research.     

Optimal Tax Policy, Market Imperfections, and Environmental Externalities in a Dynamic Optimizing Macro Model

This paper develops a dynamic real business cycle model that highlights pollution externalities (on welfare and production) and market imperfections and uses it to determine the socially optimal tax policy that encompasses labor income, capital income, and emission taxes. We show that the optimal tax on capital and labor income only addresses the production inefficiency (and is time-invariant), while the tax on the environmental externalities affects both the production inefficiency and the environmental spillovers (and is time-varying). More interestingly, the socially optimal emission tax will be characterized by a Keynesian-like stabilizer that is designed to mitigate business cycle fluctuations, i.e., that will stimulate the economy with a lower emission tax during recessions. In a positive analysis, we show that the beneficial effects arising from pollution taxation will become larger the greater is the degree of the firms' monopoly power. In addition, a triple dividend in terms of improving environmental quality and increasing employment and firms' profit can be simultaneously realized if the environmental production externality is more significant and if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is relatively small.     

Tax policy, venture capital, and entrepreneurship

The paper studies the effects of tax policy on venture capital activity. Entrepreneurs pursue a single high risk project each but have no own resources. Financiers provide funds, covering investment cost plus an upfront payment, in exchange for a share in the firm. The contract must include incentives to enlist full effort of entrepreneurs. Venture capitalists also assist with valuable business advice to enhance survival chances. The paper develops a general equilibrium framework with a traditional and an entrepreneurial sector and investigates the effects of taxes on the equilibrium level of managerial advice, entrepreneurship and welfare. It considers differential wage and capital income taxes, a comprehensive income tax, progressive taxation as well as investment and output subsidies to the entrepreneurial sector.     

The Final Incidence of Australian Indirect Taxes

The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides a breakdown by industry of the revenue collected from each of the major indirect taxes in Australia. This information does not show who bears the ultimate burden of indirect tax as each industry may pass on its initial burden to others. Thus, the burden of the tax may be passed on round by round to indirect business purchases and final demand until the total burden of the tax is passed onto the final consumer. Using a method to derive final indirect tax incidence developed from earlier studies, the final incidence of a selection of indirect taxes in Australia is presented. The major innovation is to include the use of margin industries in the initial flows of the input-output matrix ensuring that taxes on inputs to margin services are fully passed forward onto the good or service that the consumer purchases. It is found that many goods and services that are initially exempt from the main indirect taxes, such as the wholesale sales tax, have significant effective tax rates once taxes on inputs to industry are taken into account.     

The Efficiency of State Taxes

The states have increased their share of national revenue from about 16 per cent in the late 1980s to over 20 per cent. This shift may not have improved the efficiency of raising national taxation revenue. Eight taxes with total revenue in 1995–96 of $26.5 billion are considered. In order of revenue these are payroll tax, business franchise taxes, stamp duties, gambling taxes, government business enterprise taxes, financial institutions taxes, land tax and mineral taxes. Business franchise taxes fall on a few items of consumption that are already taxed heavily by the Commonwealth. Financial taxes and stamp duties are suspect because they are transactions taxes, not taxing economic activity directly. Two important state taxes—on payrolls and on land—have badly fractured bases. The pressure on the states to raise more revenue is continuing. In meeting their revenue requirements efficiently the short-term solution lies in substantial reforms of existing taxes, including repairing the bases of the payroll and land taxes, and removal or reduction of the least efficient ones. The longer term solution lies in the states having access to broader based taxes, particularly consumption.     

TAXES AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN OECD COUNTRIES

I examine how taxes and tax progressivity affect two different types of entrepreneurship—established business ownership and nascent entrepreneurship—in a large group of Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries, using 2000–2009 macro‐level Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data. Empirical evidence from Arellano‐Bond generalized method of moments estimation suggests that higher tax progressivity exerts a negative influence on nascent enterprises but appears to have no impact on established business ownership. Changes in marginal and average tax rates are found to have no significant influence on either type of entrepreneurship. The most important contribution of the article is the comparison of tax impacts on actual and nascent entrepreneurship rates. (JEL H24, H29, M13, M19)     

Optimal oil taxation in a small open economy

The international oil market has been very volatile over the past three decades. In industrialized economies, especially in Europe, taxes represent a large fraction of oil prices and governments do not seem to react to oil price shocks by using oil taxes strategically. The aim of this paper is to analyze optimal oil taxation in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy that imports oil. We find that in general it is not optimal to distort the oil price paid by firms with taxes, neither in the long run nor over the business cycle. The general result could be reversed depending on environmental considerations and available fiscal instruments. We provide simulations to illustrate the optimal response to shocks in such cases.     

Fiscal Convergence, Business Cycle Volatility, and Growth

This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal convergence on business cycle volatility and growth. Using a panel of 11 EMU and 21 OECD countries and 40 years of data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have smoother business cycles. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with smoother business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced business cycle volatility through higher fiscal convergence stimulates growth. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.     

Government size and macroeconomic stability: A comment

We show that in a standard, technology shock-driven one-sector real business cycle model, the stabilization effects of government fiscal policy depend crucially on how labor hours enter the household's period utility function and the associated labor-market behavior. In particular, as Galí [European Economic Review 38 (1994), 117-132] has shown, when the household utility is logarithmic in both consumption and leisure, income taxes are destabilizing and government purchases are stabilizing. However, the results are reversed when preferences are instead convex in hours worked. That is, income taxes are now stabilizing and public spending is destabilizing. Furthermore, under both preference specifications, the magnitude of cyclical fluctuations in output remains unchanged when the income tax rate and the share of government purchases in GDP are equal (including laissez-faire).     

Oil price uncertainty and the business cycle: Accounting for the influences of global supply and demand within a VAR GARCH-in-mean framework

ABSTRACT

This article reinvestigates the influence of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity in the United States using a four-variable VAR GARCH-in-mean asymmetric BEKK model. In contrast to previous studies in this area, the analysis focuses on business cycle fluctuations and we control for global supply and demand factors that might affect the real price of oil, its volatility as well as the US economy. We find that – even after accounting for these factors – oil price uncertainty still has a highly significant negative influence on the US business cycle. Our computations show that the effect is economically important during several periods, mostly after a significant variance shift in the mid-1980s. We simultaneously estimate the effect on the global business cycle but find that it is comparatively weak. Finally, significant spillover effects in the GARCH model suggest that oil price volatility is a gauge and channel of transmission of more general macroeconomic shocks and uncertainty. These linkages are particularly strong in case of unexpected bad news.     

The welfare implications of resource allocation policies under uncertainty: The case of public education spending

In this paper, we examine whether policy interventions, aimed at improving resource allocation, also have important stabilization effects over the business cycle. To this end, we employ a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which public education expenditures, financed by distorting taxes, enhance the productivity of private education choices. We then calculate the welfare implications of competing operating targets using a state-contingent instrument rule for public education spending. Our main findings are: (i) there can be important cyclical effects of different resource allocation policies depending on the operating target used and the degree of macroeconomic uncertainty; (ii) it is important to use an operating target which is as close as possible to the heart of the market imperfection that justifies policy action; (iii) policy action should not be monotonic in the degree of macroeconomic uncertainty.     

Revenue-maximizing tax rates in personal income taxation in the presence of consumption taxes: a note

This article computes revenue-maximizing tax rates in personal income taxes in the presence of consumption taxes. It finds that the traditional Laffer analysis, which neglects the effects of marginal tax rates on consumption, overestimates the magnitude of revenue-maximizing tax rates. The bias caused by this oversight is computed.     

Public investment and regional business cycle fluctuations in Japan

This article examines the relationship between public investment and regional business cycle fluctuations in Japan. In particular, we focus on the effects of ‘discretionary’ changes in public investment, a portion of investment unrelated to the current state of macroeconomic circumstances. The empirical results show that such portions of public investment amplify regional business cycle fluctuations.     

Tax buoyancy in OECD countries: New empirical evidence

A renewed interest in the link between business cycle and tax revenues has recently emerged, especially during economic crises. In this paper, we provide an empirical analysis on 35 OECD countries over the period 1995–2016 to estimate both short-run and long-run tax buoyancies, taking into account the macroeconomic framework, changes in governments’ tax policies, budgetary and political variables possibly affecting how taxes react to GDP fluctuations. By adopting the dynamic common correlated effects estimator, we find that both short- and long-run tax responses are lower than those reported in previous cross-country studies. We suggest that this slightly lower than expected reaction of tax revenue can be interpreted as a reduced power of both automatic stabilization in the short-run and fiscal sustainability in the long-run. Results are robust to possible endogeneity issues between tax revenues and business cycles.     

The relationship between tax rates and tax revenues in eurozone member countries - exploring the Laffer curve

We estimate Laffer Curves for direct and indirect taxes for each Eurozone country, using panel data from 1995 to 2011, by means of Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) models. We choose the three taxes that contribute the most to the government tax revenue: the value added tax (VAT), the corporate income tax (CT), and the labour income tax (LT). From our estimated significant parameters, which have the expected signs according to the Laffer Curve theory, we obtained a maximum/optimal tax rate for VAT for Greece, Portugal, and Slovakia and for the majority of the Eurozone countries for direct taxes. We also take into consideration the business cycle. Many countries do not present differences in regime, and when they do, the optimal tax rate is higher during recessions. Finally, we compare the observed tax rates in 2012 to the estimated optimal tax rates, to assess if the 2012 policy was located at the prohibitive range of the Laffer Curve. Our results are important for the discussions about fiscal discipline and harmonization in the Eurozone, since they exhibit important disparities between countries and taxes. We can see that, especially for CT and LT, there is a strong divide between the values of the optimal maximum tax rates for Eastern European countries and Western European economies. Additionally, the economic and financial conditions of each country also influence the value for the tax rate.     

Business Cycle Comovement and Labor Market Institutions: An Empirical Investigation

This paper examines the empirical link between labor market institutions and international business cycle synchronization. Using a data panel of 20 OECD countries over the 1964–2003 period, we evaluate how cross‐country labor market heterogeneity affects business cycle comovement. Our estimation strategy controls for a large set of possible factors influencing cross‐country GDP correlation, which allows a comparison of our results with those found in previous studies. We find that bilateral trade, trade similarity, monetary and fiscal convergence, as well as EMU membership lead to more synchronized cycles. Our results show that labor market regulations affect the extent of business cycle synchronization. Disparities in employment protection laws and direct taxation tend to lower international comovement while divergence in union density, unemployment benefits, and indirect taxation enhance cross‐country correlations. The level of labor market regulations also matters. Heavier employment taxes are found to raise GDP comovement.     

UK business cycle synchronization with Germany and the US: New evidence from time–frequency domain and structure of economic growth

This article uses a time–space approach to check the UK business cycle synchronization with Germany and the US. As a novelty, we consider the co-movements in terms of economic growth rate structure. In line with the existing studies, we discover that the UK business cycle is more synchronized with the US then with Germany, and that the co-movements have intensified lately. We also show that co-movements are reduced in terms of business cycle structure and are time–frequency-dependent. Finally, we point out that the UK business cycle became more synchronized with the US cycle given the contribution of investments and external balance to the real growth rate.