THE ECONOMIC SCIENCE FICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE: A FREE‐MARKET PERSPECTIVE ON THE STERN REVIEW AND THE IPCC

The Stern Review and the IPCC believe that anthropogenic climate change is a serious global threat and demands an urgent response. Examining the IPCC's projections of future climate change and Stern's estimates of its costs from a free‐market perspective shows that they are based on flawed methodological assumptions and reflect an excessively optimistic approach to knowledge of the future. The foundations of reliable knowledge for a sound policy framework have not been put in place.     

AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES IN JAPAN: TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY, GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper examines if the effects of agglomeration economies are manifested in technical efficiency and generate faster economic growth and higher (lower) levels of employment (unemployment). Using the prefecture level data for each of the two-digit groups of industries in Japan, it estimates a region-specific technical efficiency index based on the stochastic frontier production function framework. The factor analysis shows that in most of the industry-groups, efficiency has a positive association with external scale variable(s). Though the relationship is not very strong, it would be erroneous to ignore the effect of agglomeration economies on efficiency. For some light goods industries, the agglomeration effect is relatively stronger. Economic growth varies positively with external scale variable(s) and the unemployment rate tends to fall with respect to growth and concentration. This suggests that measures against industrial concentration may be counter-productive, particularly in the context of globalization when countries greatly need to raise productivity.     

HOUSING POLICY IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES: Evaluating the Macroeconomic Impacts*

This paper presents a view of the role of the housing sector in developing countries which emphasizes the potentially high macroeconomic costs of inappropriate housing policies. Traditional public finance perspectives on the role of the housing sector in the economy focus on efficiency and equity implications of the rather modest levels of government spending in the sector. This paper points out that this traditional approach is misleading in that it is less government's spending in the sector than its role in defining regulatory frameworks, pricing policies, and policies affecting the financial sector that comprise the major instruments for influencing the performance of the housing sector and, in turn, the way its performance affects the macroeconomy. The paper also presents a simplified framework for analyzing how housing policies influence the housing sector and the macroeconomy. Simple applications of the framework suggest that the macroeconomic implications of housing policy choices can be of major importance. This is emphasized by two case studies, of policies in Argentina and Poland, where recent housing policies appear to have had major impacts on levels of investment, price and wage levels, and savings rates.     

DEMAND,CUSTOMER BASE‐LINE AND DEMAND RESPONSE IN THE ELECTRICITY MARKET: A SURVEY

The increasing use of demand‐side management, as a tool to reliably meet electricity demands at peak time, has stimulated interest among researchers, consumers and producer organiza‐tions, managers, regulators and policymakers. This research reviews the growing literature on models which are used to study demand, customer base‐line (CBL) and demand response in the electricity market. After characterizing the general demand models, the CBL, based on which the demand response models are studied, is reviewed. Given the experience gained from the review and existing conditions, the study combines an appropriate model for each case for a possible application to the electricity market; moreover, it discusses the implications of the results. In the literature, these aspects are studied independently. The main contribution of this survey is attributed to the treatment of the three issues as sequentially interdependent. The review is expected to enhance the understanding of the demand, CBL and demand response in the electricity market and their relationships. The objective is conducted through a combination of demand and supply side managements in order to reduce demand through different demand response programs during peak times. This enables electricity suppliers to save costly electricity generation and at the same time reduce energy vulnerability.     

PUBLIC–PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS IN THE NETHERLANDS: POLICY, PROJECTS AND LESSONS

This article examines the re-emergence of public–private partnerships (PPPs) in the Netherlands since the 1980s, summarising the policy discussions that have taken place, and analysing the projects that have been implemented or planned. Several policy conclusions are drawn from the Dutch experience with PPPs.     

ECONOMIC TRANSITION AND LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS IN CHINA: AN INTERPRETATIVE SURVEY OF THE ‘TURNING POINT’ DEBATE

Has the Chinese economy approached the ‘Lewisian turning point’ that marks the ending of the initial phase of industrial transformation fuelled by surplus labour? In this paper we undertake an interpretative survey of the literature on this issue, in the context of China's labour market conditions prior to the reforms and structural change of the past three decades. The available evidence is mixed, and our assessment makes a strong case for probing institutional constraints to labour mobility from an economy‐wide perspective, going beyond the confines of the rural economy.     

SPATIAL POLICY AND INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRAINTS ON INDUSTRIAL GROWTH IN THAILAND*

Using the factory registration data of the Ministry of Industry, the paper documents the location patterns of manufacturing establishments in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region and evaluates spatial policies in light of the observed decentralization trends of manufacturing activity. The paper also shows the location patterns of new firms and by firm size and analyzes infrastructure and site constraints for their growth. The paper discusses the need for spatial policies to be consistent with market forces and the need for infrastructure investment to respond to the location dynamics of service demand.     

THE GROWING INVOLVEMENT OF FOREIGN NGOs IN SETTING POLICY AGENDAS AND POLITICAL DECISION‐MAKING IN AFRICA

Two case studies from Kenya demonstrate the malign impact on policy‐making and political decision‐making of foreign NGOs with single issue agendas. They gain acceptance for their minority views by using financial strength and access to economic and political elites in order to subvert what should be representative democratic processes.     

THE FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH NEXUS: A META‐ANALYSIS

We conduct a meta‐analysis of the literature of financial development and economic growth. We cover a large number of empirical studies and estimations that have been published in journal articles. We measure the degree of heterogeneity and identify the causes of the observed differentiation. Among the most significant factors behind this heterogeneity is the choice of financial‐variable proxies, the kind of data used as well as whether a study takes into account the issue of endogeneity. Our results suggest that the empirical literature on the finance–growth nexus is not free from publication bias. Also, a genuine positive effect exists between financial development and economic growth.     

MAPPING THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY‐GROWTH NEXUS: SYNERGIES AND TRADE‐OFFS

The study explores the intellectual structure, development and evolution of energy crisis and economic growth research through bibliometric analysis of research articles on energy‐growth nexus from 2000 to 2017 by using Citespace where Gephi is used to analyse the authors collaboration. The analysis incorporates 27,152 references cited by 344 authors, in 1165 articles and from 330 journals. The results of study quantitatively present the most cited articles, authors, countries, institutions and intellectual structure with data visualization in the knowledge domain of energy‐growth nexus. The study categorizes the major research areas in energy‐growth nexus research as carbon dioxide emission, electricity consumption, heterogeneous Panel, real income, renewable energy and financial development. The study discusses emerging trends which provide the future research fronts and intellectual development within the framework of energy‐growth nexus.     

LOW-INCOME HOUSING IN INDIAN CITIES: SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR POLICY

Across cities in India, migrant groups, squatters and the urban poor residing in slums have played a crucial role in developing low-income housing. This form of housing is closely connected to the economic activity of the poor, which in turn contributes to the wider urban economy. It also enables the poor to consolidate their position in the city and make claims on the city administration for infrastructure. However, such housing has been bracketed as 'informal' and lacks legitimacy. Policies concerning low-income housing must address this issue while enabling the poor to further their economic and entrepreneurial initiatives.     

REAL‐TIME DATA AND FISCAL POLICY ANALYSIS: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

This paper surveys the empirical research on fiscal policy analysis based on real‐time data. This literature can be broadly divided into four groups that focus on: (1) the statistical properties of revisions in fiscal data; (2) the political and institutional determinants of projection errors by governments; (3) the reaction of fiscal policies to the business cycle and (4) the use of real‐time fiscal data in structural vector autoregression (VAR) models. It emerges that, first, fiscal revisions are large and initial releases are biased estimates of final values. Secondly, strong fiscal rules and institutions lead to more accurate releases of fiscal data and smaller deviations of fiscal outcomes from government plans. Thirdly, the cyclical stance of fiscal policies is estimated to be more ‘counter‐cyclical’ when real‐time data are used instead of ex post data. Fourthly, real‐time data can be useful for the identification of fiscal shocks. Finally, it is shown that existing real‐time fiscal data sets cover only a limited number of countries and variables. For example, real‐time data for developing countries are generally unavailable. In addition, real‐time data on European countries are often missing, especially with respect to government revenues and expenditures. Therefore, more work is needed in this field.     

STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND GROWTH IN CHINA UNDER ECONOMIC REFORMS: PATTERNS,CAUSES AND IMPLICATIONS

This paper investigates the patterns, causes, and implications of China's structural change and its contribution to China's regional growth. Among many other findings, our regression results show that conditional convergence exists across different regions in China. Regional structural change has a convergence effect and regional openness facilitates regional structural change. Structural shocks and structural transformation had the opposite effect on China's interregional convergence during the 1990s, though the combined effect of overall structural change is a convergence effect. We also find that Chinese regions rely more heavily on structural change for labor productivity growth as the economy evolves. In summary, the results of our empirical analysis support the hypothesis underlying the theoretical model of this paper.     

THE USE AND ABUSE OF MARKETS IN HOUSING POLICY

This paper argues that, despite its rhetoric in support of markets, government does not understand how markets work, but is rather trying to use certain aspects of markets to control social housing. The paper looks at three areas: first, the idea of private finance and how this is used by government as a form of public policy; second, the notion of risk and whether it actually occurs in social housing; and third, the contention that government is incapable of appreciating the manner in which markets operate because it only wishes to provide safe options and so cannot countenance real choice and competition.     

THE IMPACT OF LABOR MARKET REGULATION ON EMPLOYMENT IN LOW‐INCOME COUNTRIES: A META‐ANALYSIS

Controversy over labor market policy often centers on achieving a balance between preventing worker exploitation, and avoiding loss of productivity or employment through excessive regulation. Although the literature documenting the impact of labor market regulation on employment is extensive, there is a dearth of evidence on the impact of such policies in low‐income countries (LICs). Since it is easier for workers, especially women, to slip into the informal sector in LICs, regulations are likely to have stronger impacts on formal employment in these countries (but lower impacts on unemployment). We systematically reviewed available research from countries that are, or were until recently, LICs. Most studies document that more stringent labor regulations are associated with lower formal sector employment and higher informal sector employment. We also conducted a metaregression analysis of the impact of minimum wages on formal and informal employment. After controlling for publication bias, higher minimum wages are associated with lower formal employment and a higher share of informal workers.     

MARKET POWER AND THE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper examines the social cost of the pharmaceutical industry in South Africa. From a regulatory perspective the industry is seen to exhibit monopolylike behaviour resulting in monopoly prices on the supply (manufacturing) side and diminished consumption on the demand (consumer) side. The evidence presented here, which is complementary to that of previous studies, does not support that view. The findings contained here are relevant to the highly contentious subject of access to drugs.