Quantifying the Impact of Trade on Wages: the Role of Nontraded Goods

This paper uses an applied general‐equilbrium model to decompose the effects of changes in trade‐ and technology‐related variables between 1982 and 1996 in the United States on the wages of skilled and unskilled labor. The results indicate that trade‐related variables (tariff cuts, improvement in the terms of trade, and the increase in the trade deficit) had little impact on the widening wage gap. The major factor behind the rise in the skilled wage relative to the unskilled wage was differential rates of growth in skill‐biased technical change across sectors. The paper also highlights the role that nontraded goods play in explaining the wage gap. Finally, the paper presents estimates of how wages would change if the economy moved to autarky. The results show that expanding trade could actually reduce wage inequality, rather than increase it.     

Nontraded Goods and Real Exchange Rates in a Multi‐Good Ricardian Model

The two‐country Ricardian trade model with discrete goods and uniform transport costs for tradable goods is applied to the decomposition of the real exchange rate into traded and nontraded components. The real exchange rate is driven almost entirely by changes in the productivity differentials in nontraded goods and also explains the Balassa–Samuelson effect of a lower cost of living in poor countries, but extraordinary transport costs for some nontraded goods are necessary to easily explain the Balassa–Samuelson effect.     

International Financial Flows in Low‐Income Countries

For a sample of low‐income countries, we analyse the behaviour of international financial flows during three periods: (i) the 2003–2007 global boom; (ii) the 2008–2009 crisis; and (iii) the 2010–2012 recovery phase. In particular, we examine aid‐adjusted net financial inflows, debt inflows, foreign direct investment inflows and official reserve outflows. We highlight the role of country characteristics in explaining the cross‐country variation in international financial flows during these different phases.     

Risk‐Off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: The Role of Capital Flows

During episodes of increased global risk aversion, or risk‐off episodes, safe haven currencies such as the Swiss franc tend to appreciate. The immediate impact of a risk‐off shock is an increase in net private inflows to Switzerland, mostly driven by a reduction in Swiss residents’ net purchases of foreign debt securities and reduced foreign exposure by Swiss banks. Given that the bulk of capital movements related to risk‐off episodes is driven by decisions of Swiss residents, capital flow management policies that discriminate based on the residency of the investor (capital controls) are not likely to be effective at reducing the impact of risk‐off episodes. However, prudential policies that limit leveraging or foreign exposure by Swiss banks may diminish the volatility of capital flows during risk‐off episodes.     

The Short‐term Determinants of Capital Flows for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Greece

This paper presents the factors driving capital flows inwards and outwards of a small open economy such as Greece during the period 1983–2009. Apart from the determinants of capital flows the possibility of speculative attacks is also considered. Applying the ordinary least squares (OLS) method it is found that variables linked to external factors such as the differential of domestic and foreign interest rates and financial crises, such as the Asian and Russian financial turmoil of 1997 and 1998 respectively, are the main factors influencing capital inflows and outflows in Greece during the period 1983–2009. Additionally the results of probit analysis support that the same factors are significant in determining the probability of speculative attacks to the Greek economy.     

No Small Hope: The Basic Goods Imperative

The continuing gender and race/ethnic pay gaps continue to be a matter of considerable concern. Using detailed NLSY data we examine the effects of a number of variables often thought to explain a large part of these gaps. Because the new variables explain some of the differentials our results provide no justification for ascribing all the remaining differentials to discrimination. On the other hand, they explain very little and therefore give no support to those who would discount the possibility of discrimination.     

The Time‐Consistent Public Goods Provision

In this study, we reconsider the optimal nonlinear tax problem with the public good from the perspective of the commitment issue and examine how it affects the condition of the public good provision. We show that the Samuelson rule should be modified when the government cannot commit and the skill types of taxpayers are revealed in the first period. This is true even if the preference of the taxpayers is separable and additive with respect to consumption and leisure. Our analysis also shows how the lack of commitment affects the formula of the marginal cost of public funds and the level of public good provision. Our findings imply that the level of the public good may be excessive in comparison to the case where the government can commit to its tax policy.     

Capital Flows to Asia: The Role of Monetary Policy

Monetary policy played an important role in the Asian experience with capital inflows. Central banks used monetary policy to contain the threat of overheating, but the resulting increases in interest rates attracted additional inflows. Empirical measurement of these links shows that tight monetary policy was an important source of inflows to Indonesia and Thailand in recent years, and that the independence of monetary policy decreased during the inflow period.     

The Allocation of German Aid: Self‐interest and Government Ideology

We investigate the importance of geo‐strategic and commercial motives for the allocation of German aid to 138 countries over the 1973–2010 period. We find that geo‐strategic and commercial motives matter. When we relate them to the political color of the German government in general, and the Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Federal Foreign Office in particular, we find their importance to be at least as strong under the socialist leadership. Socialist leadership decreases the amount of aid commitments, controlled for other factors.     

转型社会中的企业家及其角色定位

近几年来，企业家在发展阶段和转型期的作用已经成为经济学以及其他社会科学一个重要研究课题。由于社会主义国家向国家控制的市场经济的转变促进了民营企业家阶层的迅速发展，使得关于企业家阶层的讨论更加活跃。     

The Role of Trade in Intra‐Industry Productivity Growth—the Case of Old and New European Union Countries

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the role of trade in productivity growth in a sample of 30 sectors in 25 EU countries in the period of rapid East–West integration (1995–2007). Shift‐share analysis is used to show that changes in value added per hour worked in these countries appear to be mainly due to positive developments (rising productivity) within single industries and only to a lower extent result from a shift towards higher productivity activities. Trade is found to be an important positive determinant of intra‐industry productivity growth in European countries. Exports and imports alike can be associated with efficiency gains, but intermediate good exchange and trade with New Member States exert a particularly strong influence on intra‐industry productivity growth in the EU.     

中国乡村公共品的提供:连带团体的作用

在威权和转轨体制下，民主和官僚政治制度通常很薄弱，为什么处于这种制度下的政府官员所提供的公共品，往往还超过了足够维护社会稳定所需的最低水平呢？案例研究表明，即使正式责任制度很薄弱，非官方惯例和规则的约束仍然能够促使当地官员设立并履行其公共责任。而这些非正式责任制度由特定类型的连带团体提供并在全社区发挥其道德权威。在其他条件都相同的情况下，存在这类集团的村庄比没有这类集团的村庄更有可能获得较好的公共品供应。     

Learning‐by‐Exporting Revisited: The Role of Intensity and Persistence*

Two non‐mutually exclusive hypotheses can explain the empirically established export premium: self‐selection of more productive firms into export markets and learning‐by‐exporting. This paper focuses on how the temporal dimension of firms' exporting activities and the intensity of exports influence the scope of learning effects. Using a panel of Swedish firms and dynamic generalized method of moments estimation, we find a learning effect among persistent exporters with high export intensity, but not among temporary exporters or persistent exporters with low export intensity. For small firms, exports boost productivity among persistent exporters with both high and low export intensity, but the effect is stronger for persistent export‐intensive small firms.     

The Effect of Customs Unions Among Specialized Countries on International Capital Flows*

This paper examines the effect on international capital flows of a customs union formed by specialized countries. We assume no economies of scale, and use a general equilibrium model with internationally mobile capital. It is shown that integration among countries with characteristics generally associated with having specialized economies will lead to a flow of capital into the union. These characteristics specifically concern the types of goods they trade among themselves, and with the rest of the world, and their ability to absorb capital inflows.     

The Oecd Model Tax Treaty: Tax Competition And Two‐Way Capital Flows*

Model tax treaties do not require tax rate coordination, but do require that either credits or exemptions be applied to repatriated earnings. This contradicts recent models with a single capital exporter where deductions are most efficient. I incorporate the fact that capital flows are typically bilateral. With symmetric countries, credits by both is the unique and efficient treaty equilibrium. This equilibrium weakly dominates the nontreaty equilibrium. With asymmetric countries, the treaty need not offer improvements without tax harmonization. With harmonization, it is always possible to reach efficient capital allocations while increasing both countries' welfares only if neither uses deductions.     

Fiscal Policy in Oil‐exporting Countries: The Roles of Oil Funds and Institutional Quality

Oil‐exporting countries face challenges in the conduct of fiscal policy owing to volatile oil revenues, especially in countries with weak institutions. Many oil exporters have established oil funds to delink government expenditure from oil revenues; however, their effectiveness remains unresolved. This paper examines the roles of oil funds and institutional quality in reducing fiscal procyclicality and macroeconomic volatility in 42 oil‐exporting countries from 1960 to 2014 using panel vector autoregression techniques. The results show that oil funds are effective in reducing fiscal procyclicality in countries with high institutional quality. There is also a reduction in the procyclical bias in those with low institutional quality but the statistical evidence is weak. Nevertheless, oil funds are associated with reduced volatility of government consumption and the real exchange rate in countries with low institutional quality. These findings give credence to the macroeconomic stabilization role of oil funds but also reinforce the importance of good institutions.