中国近年来经济增长与 就业增长间数量关系解释

本文尝试解释为何中国就业变化和经济增长间数量关系并不稳定,两个问题将被处理：（1）就业数据是否有偏误;（2）一些中国特有的影响因素在就业和增长关系间是否有调节作用。本文的研究发现：（1）统计局公布的城镇增加就业数据大致可靠;（2）经济增长对就业有显著拉动作用,也就是说使用另一种表达的奥肯定律得到论证;（3）国有经济部门在就业和增长间起到了调节作用,并且对经济周期不同阶段影响有对称性。     

农民权利配置与收入增长关系研究

农民权利配置在促进农民收入增长的同时,也存在着制约农民收入增长的情况。本文力图明晰农民收入增长中权利配置的主要问题及产生原因,找到解决对策。本文首先对农民权利配置与农民收入关系做了理论及描述性分析,进一步实证分析了1994-2011年农民权利配置与农民收入增长的关系。结果表明：长期以来,国家配置为主的配置方式,与国家支农支出、农地流转比例、农用机械总动力有关的权利配置和其对农民收入增长影响系数的匹配不当,收益权配置为主的配置偏好共同导致农民权利配置效率偏低,影响到农民收入增速长期低于GDP增速。本文建议控制直接补贴规模,加大农业科技投入,适度控制农地流转的比例及速度,引导农民开设家庭农场,扶持专业化农业生产,从而提高农民权利配置效率,有效促进农民收入增长。     

THE TWO‐WAY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND CORRUPTION AND ITS EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

The existing empirical evidence suggests that in low‐income economies, an increase in government spending leads to a reduction of growth. This article aims to explain this empirical fact by considering a growth model that incorporates a two‐way relationship between corruption and government spending. That is, government spending gives rise to corruption and rent seeking, which feeds back by distorting the structure and size of government spending. In addition, the cost of corruption depends on the wage rate. Therefore, in low‐income economies, increases in government spending tend to generate larger social losses caused by a higher level of rent dissipation and a concomitant rise in corruption and government inefficiency. Consequently, in such economies, an increase in government spending is more likely to result in a decline of economic growth. (JEL H3, O11, O41)     

基于VAR模型的通货膨胀与经济增长关系研究

通货膨胀是衡量宏观经济运行是否稳定和健康的重要指标。通货膨胀与经济增长之间的关系,是当前理论界密切关注的重大经济问题。计量经济分析结果表明,通货膨胀与经济增长具有双向的格兰杰因果关系,通货膨胀受自身波动的影响较大,上游产品价格明显上涨会对未来通货膨胀形成较大的压力,货币供应量较快增长会对通货膨胀产生一定的影响。     

全球化和中国经济增长关系的实证分析

通过对全球化和中国经济增长关系的实证分析,可以发现:(1)在1978—2002年的长周期样本中,经济全球化对中国经济增长的影响不显著;(2)在20世纪80年代,经济全球化推动了中国资本—劳动比和TFP的提高,进而推动中国的经济增长,20世纪90年代以后,这种影响逐步消失;(3)经济全球化与中国经济增长关系的"时变特征"源于中国经济增长阶段和增长模式的变化。     

收入差距与经济增长研究新动态

收入差距与经济增长之间的关系一直是经济研究中的重要问题之一, 一些新方法新理论被不断发掘,如收入差距与经济危机、收入差距和财政波动、收入差距与产出波动等。本文对该领域影响力较大的新文献进行梳理和评述,为研究收入差距和经济增长问题提供参照平台,同时也为研究和解决我国收入差距问题提供建议和参考。     

经济地理学与经济学关系的历史考察

经济地理学发展不仅与人文地理的其他分支交互发展,并从包括经济学在内的社会科学内吸收营养。文章通过历史性地考察经济地理学与经济学关系,尝试探索经济地理学未来的发展趋势。通过考察发现:古典经济地理学时期,经济地理学与经济学相互交织、彼此影响;1930、1940时代到1970、1980年代,经济学引领经济地理发展,而经济地理学者没有对主流经济学产生重大影响;1980年代末和1990年代初期,经济地理学吸收经济学相关理论,实现了文化、制度和关系的转向,同时主流经济学则出现了地理化趋势,出现了新经济地理学运动。1980年代以来,演化思想在经济学界逐渐兴盛起来,演化经济学理论已得到越来越多的经济学家的重视,在20世纪90年代,经济地理学家接受了演化经济学的基本概念,开始尝试构建演化经济地理学理论框架。演化经济地理学是经济地理和经济学的下一个交叉点。     

区域科技投入与经济增长关系的实证分析

构建灰色关联度模型实证分析发现:科技经费投入、科技活动人员投入对产业经济增长有显著作用。进行区域科技投入与产业经济关系聚类分析可把我国分为三类典型区域。对于第一类地区,科技经费投入,尤其是R&D经费对第三产业的投入效率更高,在该类地区应加大科技经费的投入;对于第三类地区,R&D人员全时当量对第一产业的投入效率更高,在该类地区应加大科技活动人员的投入。     

长株潭地区金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

采用协整检验和因果检验对长株潭地区金融发展与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。检验结果表明长株潭地区的贷款增长率与中介效率增长率对经济增长具有正向促进作用,但是中介效率增长率对经济增长的促进作用不显著;贷款增长率与经济增长率之间具有双向因果关系。在实证研究的基础上,提出了相关的结论和建议。     

城市化与经济增长关系分析——兼评中国特色

本文结合已有的理论和跨国数据,分析了城市化和经济增长及经济结构转变的相关关系,观察其中中国的特殊之处。本文也结合中国数据预测城市化在未来一段时间的轨迹。根据世界各国的发展经验可以发现,城市化水平与经济增长服从一个统计上显著的S型曲线规律,而我国正处于城市化速度最快的时期。城市化的推进,有利于改善经济结构,促进国内消费需求和第三产业发展。相比于世界平均水平,我国在当前城市化水平下的投资率和第二产业比重偏高,而消费率明显偏低。我国的城市化水平、人均收入和人均资本之间存在一个稳定的协整关系。城市化每推进一个百分点,可以带动人均实际收入增长2.25个百分点。根据它们的动态关系,可以预计我国在2012年城市人口将超过农村。     

FALLING LABOR INCOME INEQUALITY IN KOREA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH: PATTERNS AND UNDERLYING CAUSES

Over the last twenty-five years, the economy of the Republic of Korea achieved a remarkable growth rate of 7 percent per year in real per capita income, causing it to be labeled, justifiably, as a "miracle economy." This exceptional economic growth has beenpp accompanied by an even more exceptional fall m labor income inequality. Using a newly-developed methodology, we use data from Korea's Occupational Wage Surveys to quantify the importance of various factors that have contributed to the fall in labor income inequality in Korea. We find the most important factors explaining the level of income inequality are job tenure, gender, years of education, and occupation, while those that are most important in explaining the change in income inequality are years of education, industry, occupation, and potential experience.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC FREEDOM AND ECONOMIC DYNAMISM

We analyze the consequences of economic freedom on economic dynamism across U.S. states and over time. Using data from the Economic Freedom of North America index, we show that states with greater economic freedom have higher rates of gross and net job creation and establishment entry. The results are robust to the inclusion of many different control variables and alternative specifications, suggesting a connection between freedom and dynamism. This evidence supports theories in which government policies may impede business dynamism. (JEL 043, P16, R5)     

深圳与珠江三角洲区域经济联系的测度及分析

深圳发展过程是同全国，珠江三角洲和香港等区域经济联系不断加强的过程，深圳发展的历史，现在与将来都同珠江三角洲区域整体发展密切相关，深圳已经逐步建立起了同珠江三角液区域极为密切的资金，技术，人才（包括劳动力）以及市场方面的广泛联系，这种联系不仅是过去深圳经济发展的关键，更是深圳持续发展，实现第二次创业成功的重要保证，深圳的发展离不开它所紧密依托的区域即珠江三角洲区域的发展，本文从深圳同珠江三角洲及香港两个层面，通过区域经济联系强度量化指标以及投资及旅游联系等实际测度了深圳对外区域经济联系状况，进而提出深圳加强同珠江三角洲区域经济联系的若干政策建议。     

中国物质消耗—收入关系的理论与实际分析

本文先提出了一个物质消耗与收入关系的理论模型。然后,对我国及我国经济较为发达的广东省和上海市的物质消耗与国内生产总值进行实证分析。本文的结论是,目前即使是经济发达的地区,物资消耗与GDP的关系没有表现出强去物质化,而是呈正相关,但相关曲线的斜率逐渐递减。所以,我国未来的一段时间里,经济发展需要更多的物质投入,但对物质投入的依赖性将下降。     

INCOME INEQUALITY WITHIN EUROPEAN REGIONS: DETERMINANTS AND EFFECTS ON GROWTH

Economic inequality across Europe has been largely investigated by analyzing the determinants and dynamics of the disparities between countries and regions. Similarly, many studies have focused on inequality within European countries. So far, less attention has been devoted to economic inequality within European regions, mainly due to data shortages. The aim of this paper is to shed some light on this level of analysis. After the introductory section, the first part of the paper presents the conceptual bases of the study, examining relevant theoretical and empirical arguments about (i) the determinants of economic inequality, (ii) the relationship between economic inequality and growth, and (iii) the desirability and specificity of regional analysis. The second part of the paper, using various econometric approaches, provides evidence of the centrality of labor market qualitative and quantitative aspects and of some country-level institutional settings for regional inequality levels. As regards the effects of inequality on growth, the results suggest a positive relationship.     

转变经济增长方式与增加就业的关系

转变经济增长方式与增加就业是我国目前面临的两大问题,二者既有矛盾又有一致之处。只有处理好它们的关系,才能使我国的经济再上一个新台阶。     

GENDER INEQUALITY IN EDUCATION IN CHINA: A META‐REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Although there is evidence that there was gender inequality in China's education system in the 1980s, the literature in China has mixed evidence on improvements in gender inequality in educational attainment over the past three decades. Some suggest gender inequality is still severe; others report progress. We seek to understand the progress China has made (if any) in reducing gender inequality in education since the 1980s. To meet this goal, we use a meta‐analysis approach which provides a new quantitative review of a relatively large volume of empirical literature on gender educational differentials. This article analyzes differences across both time and space, and also across different grade levels and ethnicities. Our results indicate that gender inequality in educational attainment still exists, but it has been narrowing over time. Moreover, it varies by area (rural versus urban) and grade level. There is nearly no significant gender inequality in the case of girls in urban areas or in the case of the 9 years of compulsory education (primary school and junior high school). Girls, however, still face inequality in rural areas (although inequality is falling over time) and when they reach high school or beyond. (JEL I24)     

城市国内客流量与游客网络关注度时空相关分析

系统收集城市客流量及游客网络关注度数据,分析影响客流量及游客网络关注度时空变化的主要因素及其边际效应,构建了国内游客量与游客网络关注度的时空相关模型。结果显示:①气候舒适度、双休节假日等是影响客流量及游客网络关注度年内变化的主要因素,气候舒适度及节假日对客流量和游客网络关注度月指数的边际效应系数分别为0.207、4.173和0.743、5.093;②旅游资源丰度、经济发展水平、人口数量、气候舒适度等是影响客流量及游客网络关注度空间分布的主要因素,其对客流量及游客网络关注度空间分布的边际效应系数分别为37.102、0.683、1.356、47.175和0.397、0.002、0.005、0.786;③游客网络关注度与客流量在时空变化上有较强的相关性,游客网络关注度月指数每变化1%,客流量月指数将增加(或减少)0.611%,游客网络关注度每增加(或减少)1万次,客流量将增加(或减少)125.866万人次。     

经济增长与环境的关系——基于对CO2环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究

在对"环境库兹涅兹假说"暗含的同质假设前提提出质疑的基础上,对165个国家进行分组检验后发现,"高工业、高收入"国家出现了"环境库兹涅茨曲线"的"倒U"型趋势,"低工业、低收入"国家出现微弱"倒U"型趋势,"低工业、高收入"国家表现出了"~"型趋势,而"高工业、低收入"国家环境污染与收入增长同步。