Income Distributive Effects in the Brazilian Economy

Studies aiming to evaluate the structural distribution of economic impacts usually treat consumption demand as an exogenous variable. In this case, the Leontief matrix multiplier lacks the multiplier process via the consumption function that one customarily finds in a Keynesian model. To regard the consumption as a fictitious production activity is not the appropriate procedure. Instead, the Keynesian consumption function is introduced at a disaggregated level. For that, a matrix multiplier was formulated in order to combine Leontief's propagation process with the Keynesian propagation process. This matrix includes the effects of endogenous changes in consumption demand. Based on the present production structure in Brazil, the results show how the propagation effect directs the induced income towards capitalists, depriving wage earners. The model also allows for evaluation of diverse effects of the propagation process according to income and consumption coefficients by sector.     

Bayesian estimation of labor demand by age: theoretical consistency and an application to an input–output model

Extended input–output models require careful estimation of disaggregated consumption by households and comparable sources of labor income by sector. The latter components most often have to be estimated. The primary focus of this paper is to produce labor demand disaggregated by workers’ age. The results are evaluated through considerations of its consistency with a static labor demand model restricted with theoretical requirements. A Bayesian approach is used for more straightforward imposition of regularity conditions. The Bayesian model confirms elastic labor demand for youth workers, which is consistent with what past studies find. Additionally, to explore the effects of changes in age structure on a regional economy, the estimated age-group-specific labor demand model is integrated into a regional input–output model. The integrated model suggests that ceteris paribus ageing population contributes to lowering aggregate economic multipliers due to the rapidly growing number of elderly workers who earn less than younger workers.     

Stability and efficiency from a Neo-Keynesian viewpoint

This paper raises once more the Keynesian challenge of the classical doctrine that an unguided market economy has a natural tendency towards optimal employment of resources. By means of a simple macromodel, we show that if quantity expectations are incorporated into the Walrasian model, then it is no longer generally true that the ‘invisible hand’ leads the economy to Walrasian equilibrium. Instead, it may lead the economy to a kind of Keynesian equilibrium in which the firms' sales expectations constitute a binding constraint on production. Moreover, while Pareto optimum is unstable and hence unattainable in our model, a ‘second-best’ optimum among stable equilibria exists and requires a public sector. Accordingly, a trade-off between efficiency and other policy aims occurs only at tax rates above the positive tax rate in optimum     

STABILISATION POLICY,RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND PRICE‐LEVEL VERSUS INFLATION TARGETING: A SURVEY

We survey literature comparing inflation targeting (IT) and price‐level targeting (PT) as macroeconomic stabilisation policies. Our focus is on New Keynesian models and areas that have seen significant developments since Ambler's (2009, Price‐level targeting and stabilisation policy: a survey. Journal of Economic Surveys 23(5): 974–997) survey: optimal monetary policy; the zero lower bound; financial frictions and transition costs of adopting a PT regime. Ambler's conclusion that PT improves social welfare in New Keynesian models is fairly robust, but we note an interesting split in the literature: PT consistently outperforms IT in models where policymakers commit to simple Taylor‐type rules, but results in favour of PT when policymakers minimise loss functions are overturned with small deviations from the baseline model. Since the beneficial effects of PT appear to hang on the joint assumption that agents are rational and the economy New Keynesian, we discuss survey and experimental evidence on rational expectations and the applied macro literature on the empirical performance of New Keynesian models. Overall, the evidence is not clear‐cut, but we note that New Keynesian models can pass formal statistical tests against macro data and that models with rational expectations outperform those with behavioural expectations (i.e. heuristics) in direct statistical tests. We therefore argue that policymakers should continue to pay attention to PT.     

Lack of confidence,the zero lower bound,and the virtue of fiscal rules

In the presence of the zero lower bound, standard business cycle models with a Taylor-type monetary policy rule are prone to equilibrium multiplicity. A drop in private sector confidence can drive the economy into a liquidity trap without any change in fundamentals. I show, in the context of a standard New Keynesian model, that it is possible to design Ricardian fiscal spending rules that insulate the economy from such expectations-driven liquidity traps. In the case of price adjustment costs, desirable fiscal rules ensure that a drop in confidence does not lead to a decline in real marginal costs. In the case of nominal wage adjustment costs, desirable fiscal spending rules ensure that a drop in confidence does not lead to a decline in the ratio of the marginal rate of substitution between private consumption and hours worked relative to the real wage rate.     

Monetary Policy Indeterminacy and Identification Failures in the U.S.: Results from A Robust Test

We propose a novel identification‐robust test for the null hypothesis that an estimated New Keynesian model has a reduced form consistent with the unique stable solution against the alternative of sunspot‐driven multiple equilibria. Our strategy is designed to handle identification failures as well as the misspecification of the relevant propagation mechanisms. We invert a likelihood ratio test for the cross‐equation restrictions (CER) that the New Keynesian system places on its reduced‐form solution under determinacy. If the CER are not rejected, sunspot‐driven expectations can be ruled out from the model equilibrium and we accept the structural model. Otherwise, we move to a second‐step and invert an Anderson and Rubin‐type test for the orthogonality restrictions (OR) implied by the system of structural Euler equations. The hypothesis of indeterminacy and the structural model are accepted if the OR are not rejected. We investigate the finite‐sample performance of the suggested identification‐robust two‐step testing strategy by some Monte Carlo experiments and then apply it to a New Keynesian AD/AS model estimated with actual US data. In spite of some evidence of weak identification as for the ‘Great Moderation’ period, our results offer formal support to the hypothesis of a switch from indeterminacy to a scenario consistent with uniqueness occurring in the late 1970s. Our identification‐robust full‐information confidence set for the structural parameters computed on the ‘Great Moderation’ regime turns out to be more precise than the intervals previously reported in the literature through ‘limited‐information’ methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The New Keynesian Model and the Euro Area Business Cycle*

This paper describes a New Keynesian model incorporating transactions‐facilitating money and a time‐to‐build constraint into endogenous capital accumulation. The calibrated New Keynesian model performs almost as well as the estimated vector autoregressive model in replicating Euro area cyclical correlations between key variables such as output and inflation, although it fares less well in predicting the procyclical dynamics of nominal interest rates. The presence of a time‐to‐build requirement in the model helps to improve its fit to Euro area data, whereas the role of transactions‐facilitating money is much less important. Impulse–response functions and a decomposition of variance complete the analysis.     

Queensland State Impact and Projection Model: The Household Sector

The Queensland Impact and Projection model is an integrated input–output econometric model of the Queensland economy. Its purpose is to complement a conventional input–output model for analyzing economic impacts at the state level. This paper provides an overview of some of the methods used to model the household sector in an input–output framework, before describing the approach taken in the Queensland model. Some results which support the empirical performance of the model are also provided. It is demonstrated that the integrated model is a viable alternative and improvement on the conventional input–output model. The results are consistent with the static input–output model and conform to expectations about how the economy responds in real impact situations.     

Misspecification and Expectations Correction in New Keynesian DSGE Models

This paper focuses on the dynamic misspecification that characterizes the class of small‐scale New Keynesian models currently used in monetary and business cycle analysis, and provides a remedy for the typical difficulties these models have in accounting for the rich contemporaneous and dynamic correlation structure of the data. We suggest using a statistical model for the data as a device through which it is possible to adapt the econometric specification of the New Keynesian model such that the risk of omitting important propagation mechanisms is kept under control. A pseudo‐structural form is built from the baseline system of Euler equations by forcing the state vector of the system to have the same dimension as the state vector characterizing the statistical model. The pseudo‐structural form gives rise to a set of cross‐equation restrictions that do not penalize the autocorrelation structure and persistence of the data. Standard estimation and evaluation methods can be used. We provide an empirical illustration based on USA quarterly data and a small‐scale monetary New Keynesian model.     

EVALUATING SUPPLY-SIDE AND DEMAND-SIDE SHOCKS FOR FISHERIES: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (CGE) MODEL FOR ALASKA

This study used computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to investigate the economic effects of three exogenous shocks to Alaska fisheries: (1) reduction in pollock allowable catch (TAC); (2) increase in fuel price; and (3) reduction in demand for seafood. Two different model versions, ‘Keynesian’ and ‘neoclassical’, were used to estimate impacts on endogenous output, employment, value added, and household income. By using a CGE model, this study overcomes the limitations of fixed-price models (such as input–output models) including (1) inability to calculate welfare effects due to fixed prices; and (2) difficulty of addressing supply-side shocks. There are currently few examples of CGE studies addressing fisheries issues appearing in the literature. Among those, this study is unique in that it uses a relatively disaggregated sector scheme and examines both supply-side and demand-side shocks.     

REFLECTIONS ON THE INOPERABILITY INPUT–OUTPUT MODEL

We argue that the inoperability input–output model is a straightforward – albeit potentially very relevant – application of the standard input–output model. In addition, we propose two less standard input–output approaches as alternatives to take into consideration when analyzing the effects of disasters or disruptions.     

Extending the input–output model with assets

In this paper, the input–output model is extended with assets. It allows us to examine the various assets that are held and used in production. The requirements of assets that must be held by each sector can thus be specified. Extending the input–output model with assets provides a better alternative to the capital stock matrix in the standard Systems of National Accounts. The input–output model is extended by taking the depreciation of fixed assets into full account. This extension allows for the calculation of total holding coefficients that express the amount of assets that are required to be held in each sector in order to satisfy a unit of final demand. In addition, a dynamic version of the extended model is presented. The extended input–output model has been widely applied in China for various purposes.     

Technical Change in the Private Consumption Converter

The analysis of technological change is centered on the study of the evolution of technical coefficients in the input–output table. Complementary to this analysis, the household consumption expenditure matrix, relating consumption by commodities to consumption by purpose or by function, also incorporates some other aspects of technological change. Thus, the evolution in time of the coefficients of this consumption expenditure matrix will portray technological processes, implying substitutions between commodities to satisfy the different functions The substitution between consumption expenditure by functions is also to be taken into consideration, because it can influence, together with technological change, the use of commodities in the final demand. For Switzerland, a 1980–89 time series of household consumption expenditure matrices with 37 commodities and 58 functional consumption categories has been estimated using data from consumer expenditure surveys. In this paper, instruments generally applied to the analysis of changes in input–output technical coefficients are extended to these matrices, including methods that deal with biproportional processes of substitution.     

A note on interactions-driven business cycles

Within the standard Keynesian multiplier framework, extended by a micro-model of interactive formation of individual consumption propensities, we demonstrate that socioeconomic interactions can lead to cyclical fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. The underlying micro-model of direct interactions is a version of Alan Kirman’s generic opinion formation model, with an additional feedback effect from macroscopic variables on the transition probabilities. Our model engenders cyclical fluctuations of economic variables, despite the fact that neither the Keynesian multiplier model nor Kirman’s model does so on its own.     

Closing the Canadian Input–Output Model: Homogeneous vs Non-homogeneous Household Sector Specifications

This paper addresses, on both theoretical and empirical fronts, the task of endogenizing the household sector in a rectangular input–output (IO) model. The formulation of Miyazawa (1976) for square models is extended to the development of an impact matrix for rectangular models. This allows for the numerous household revenue sources to be built into the model. A closed model with non-homogeneous households is developed where individuals are modelled individually and by industry. The perform ance of the non-homogeneous household sector model is compared with a model that has a homogeneous household sector. The model with the non-homogeneous household sector is more sensitive to changes in wages and salaries than to changes in final demand.     

Spillover effects on the sectoral returns for australian and New Zealand equity markets

In this paper, we examine the return and volatility spillovers, together with the trend spillovers on the sectoral equity returns for Australian and New Zealand markets. We find that the return spillovers of industrial, local and global shocks have a limited effect on Australian and New Zealand sector returns, whereas the volatility spillovers play a significant role on explaining the volatility of sector equity indices. Furthermore, we discover that the volatility spillover effects of the global and industrial shocks are greater in magnitude for explaining the volatility of the Australian sectors than those of New Zealand, particularly basic materials, oil and gas, technology and telecom sectors. By employing the trend spillover model, we find that the volatility spillover effects of global sector indices have been increasing over the volatility of the Australian sectoral returns until now. This finding proposes that Australian sector equity market is more integrated with the world than the New Zealand counterpart.     

Energy intensity and directed fiscal policy

This paper assesses the effects of fiscal policy on economy-wide energy intensity within an endogenous growth framework. To this end, we first develop a two-sector (investment good and consumption good) augmented AK model by integrating the Uzawa model with Rebelo’s AK model, and assume that a non-renewable resource is one of the factors of production. Using this framework, we solve the model for the short and long run, identifying the sufficient parameter conditions that ensure higher energy intensity in the investment goods sector. We then introduce a balanced budget government, whose objective is to decrease the economy-wide energy intensity by levying tax on the energy-intensive investment goods sector and subsidizing the consumption goods sector. Contrary to our expectations, we find that this fiscal policy design increases economy-wide energy intensity as it leads to a decline in real GDP without changing total energy consumption. On the basis of this model, we propose the concept of a ‘directed fiscal policy’, which connotes a reduction of the economy-wide energy intensity by following a heterogeneous taxation policy across sectors.     

Information flows within and across sectors in Chinese stock markets

We examine the patterns of information flows within and across sectors of the two Chinese stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen during 1994–2001. Using the generalized forecast error variance decomposition, we find a high degree of interdependence, indicating that the sectors are highly integrated and sector prices reflect information from other sectors. Industry is the most influential sector in both exchanges, while Finance in Shenzhen is the least integrated with other sectors. Implications of the findings for investors and policymakers are also discussed.     

投入产出分析若干方法论问题的研究

一般均衡理论和模型存在难以求解和实际应用的基本问题，后人从不同思路对它进行简化，形成了旨在从理论上清楚说明市场机制作用的局部均衡理论和纯粹出于应用目的而建立的投入产出分析。投入产出分析是在简化价格调节的作用下，从生产技术的联系出发，并在同质性、直接消耗系数稳定性和比例性等假设下，沿着数量调节经济结构的路径，实现了一般均衡的可计量化和可观测检验性。我们认为，投入产出模型的前提条件——市场机制的完善以及整个生产力结构的均衡与我国生产力多元化结构的现实有相当距离。因此，如何根据我国基本国情正确认识和解决我国投入产出模型假设的问题是应当引起关注和重视的基础性方法论问题。     

Sectoral Effects of News Shocks

This paper argues that an aggregate news shock reveals news about technological improvements in the durable goods sector. Better technological prospects translate into large responses of the fundamentals in the durable goods sector; much larger than the responses of the fundamentals in the non‐durable goods sector. These better technological prospects, contrary to common belief, do not induce short‐run comovement among fundamentals within either of the two sectors. The behaviour of inventories, an important margin that durable goods producers can use to buffer news shocks, proves to be crucial for reconciling the effects of news shocks in a two‐sector model with the data.