资本账户开放与国际金融冲击的传导——基于DSGE模型的分析

本文在动态随机一般均衡的框架下,建立了一个包括贸易部门和非贸易部门的小型开放经济模型,系统研究和比较资本管制与资本账户开放两种情况下,国外金融冲击、出口需求冲击对中国经济的不同影响和传导机制,并检验资本账户开放情形下应对国际冲击时不同货币政策规则的有效性。结果发现：当资本账户开放时,一国受到国外冲击的波动幅度远大于资本管制的情况;资本管制和资本账户开放对国际金融冲击传导机制的关键差异在于贸易部门与非贸易部门的互动关系,具体表现为劳动力转移的差异;在资本账户开放后,面对不同形式的国际冲击,货币数量型规则和混合型规则均能有效熨平经济波动。     

Financial Openness in Turkey

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effects of financial liberalization on the financial and real sectors of the Turkish economy. The process of liberalization began over 15 years ago simultaneously with a stabilization programme that had been designed according to neoclassical model. The implementation addressed first foreign trade, then the domestic financial market and finally foreign capital movements. Contrary to theoretical expectations, the opening of the capital account induced adverse effects on financial intermediation, savings, investment, growth and foreign debt.     

Macroeconomic adjustment with managed exchange rates and capital controls: Some lessons from China

This paper examines the performance of capital controls and exchange-rate management when the economy finds itself in dark corners. These are times when the real sector experiences a sequence of prolonged negative shocks from world demand, while the central bank faces low world interest rates on its foreign-exchange reserve holdings. We examine two regimes, one of a fixed exchange rate with strong capital controls and another with a more open capital account with a managed exchange rate. We show how this model replicates recent experiences of China as it moved from a relatively fixed exchange rate regime with strong capital controls to a more flexible exchange rate regime with a more open capital account. Our results show that capital-account liberalization should be accompanied by domestic price liberalization to avoid large losses in foreign exchange reserve and jumps in unemployment during dark corners in the more open regime.     

North–South Trade Liberalization and Economic Welfare

We consider a general equilibrium model of a developing economy (the South) that opens to trade with a developed economy (the North). The southern economy is characterized by open urban unemployment and rural–urban migration, a competitive agricultural sector and a monopolistically competitive manufacturing sector. Hence, there is potential for both inter‐ and intra‐industry trade to arise on liberalization, in addition to distortionary effects of duality. Southern comparative advantage in agriculture may arise from the labor market distortion and the basis for intra‐industry trade is love for variety. We characterize various configurations of the trade pattern, and the resulting welfare consequences of opening to trade in this context. We illustrate a new mechanism under which in some circumstances it may be possible for trade liberalization to lower economic welfare in the South.     

中国资本账户开放、利率市场化和汇率制度弹性化

开放经济下,资本流动、利率和汇率三者相互联动、相互协调、自动平衡。利率市场化是资本账户开放和汇率制度弹性化的前提条件;资本控制程度影响利率市场化和汇率制度弹性化;利率和汇率相互作用、相互传导。一国宏观经济调控政策的效果不仅仅取决于资本控制程度和利率或汇率水平的变动,更取决于资本控制、利率和汇率三者的联动效应。中国金融自由化改革进程中,必须正确处理好资本账户开放、利率市场化和汇率制度弹性化之间的关系,发挥三者联动协同效应,实现内外均衡。     

International Financial Liberalization, Corruption, and Economic Growth

This paper examines the effects of capital account liberalization on the long-run growth of a developing economy. A general-equilibrium, endogenous growth model is constructed in which corruption forms an integral part of the governance system of the country. By undermining the profitability of innovations, corruption lowers the rate of return to capital and reduces the rate of technological change. The impact of international financial liberalization on long-run growth in this model can be either positive or negative. A drop in growth is obtained when the level of corruption is high enough to cause domestic rates of return to capital before liberalization to drop below those in the rest of the world. In this case, liberalization generates capital outflows, which act as a constraining force on innovation, reducing the rate of technological change and lowering output growth. On the other hand, if the level of corruption is sufficiently low, the capital account liberalization will serve as a boost to the country's technical change and growth.     

资本管制决定因素的一般理论与实证分析

全球金融经济危机以来,资本管制和资本项目自由化问题引起了各国政府和经济学界的高度关注。本文对资本管制进行了基础性理论研究,研究表明：（1）一国放开资本管制实现资本项目自由化必须满足其前提条件,即总财富大于总支出,当该条件不满足时则应实施资本管制,而一些重要因素决定总财富与总支出的关系。（2）当一国公共支出的目标是社会福利最大化时,中等财富水平的国家更易实现资本项目自由化。（3）资本管制的实施应是逆周期的：经济越繁荣时资本项目有自由化倾向,此时应加强资本管制,抑制热钱流入,控制经济过热;相反,当经济进入衰退时有抑制资本项目自由化的倾向,此时在防止资本外逃的基础上,应适当放松资本管制,鼓励资本流入。本文采用61个发展中国家1980-2011年的数据对上述结论进行了实证检验。     

Capital Controls: a Political Economy Approach

The paper examines the economic consequences of political conflicts that arise when countries implement capital controls. In an overlapping‐generations model, agents vote on whether to open or close an economy to capital flows. The young (workers) receive income only from wages while the old (capitalists) receive income only from savings. The authors characterize the set of stationary equilibria for an infinite‐horizon game. Assuming dynamic efficiency, when the median representative is a worker (capitalist), capital‐importing countries will open (close) while capital‐exporting countries will close (open). These predicted patterns are consistent with data on liberalization policies over time and across various countries.     

Capital Flight, North-South Lending, and Stages of Economic Development

We present a two-country OLG economy in which international capital mobility exists in the presence of moral hazard in financial contracts. The difference in the extent of asymmetric information is a source of capital movement and capital flows from the South to the North. Even though there exists a unique steady state under autarky, multiple locally stable steady states may emerge in a world economy with an integrated capital market. However, the integration may drive the South down to further impoverishment. The South's government therefore should take into account seriously the timing of capital market liberalization as a conduit of economic development.     

The role of location choice in strategic export promotion policy: capital liberalization incentives of exporting countries

We study an international capital liberalization game where exporting countries choose either to open the domestic market for capital inflow or not. We clarify that if the cost difference is large enough, the less productive country is indifferent between closing or opening for inward direct investment, and the more productive country never has an incentive to open. International coordination to open markets is not always necessary in our capital liberalization game since it may deteriorate the welfare of the more productive country and will make world welfare worse off. The earlier version of this paper is Kiyono and Wei (2002).     

资本市场开放与企业真实盈余管理——基于“陆港通”的经验证据

资本市场开放不仅是扩大国际融资、更好地利用国际金融市场的需要,而且对我国资本市场发育和上市公司行为具有多重外部治理效应。本文借助我国内地与香港资本市场互联互通机制这一准自然实验,研究资本市场开放对企业真实盈余管理的影响。研究发现:(1)总体上,“陆港通”机制的实施显著降低了标的公司真实盈余管理程度。(2)委托代理问题是企业进行盈余管理的重要原因,而“陆港通”机制开通后,能够缓解标的公司代理矛盾,进而约束管理层的真实盈余管理行为。(3)当资本市场信息环境改善、管理层面临较大股票抛售压力以及大股东监督力度较强时,“陆港通”抑制企业真实盈余管理行为的治理效果更强。本文结果表明,资本市场开放有助于提高我国上市公司财务信息披露质量及公司治理水平。     

资本市场开放与企业真实盈余管理——基于“陆港通”的经验证据

资本市场开放不仅是扩大国际融资、更好地利用国际金融市场的需要,而且对我国资本市场发育和上市公司行为具有多重外部治理效应。本文借助我国内地与香港资本市场互联互通机制这一准自然实验,研究资本市场开放对企业真实盈余管理的影响。研究发现:(1)总体上,“陆港通”机制的实施显著降低了标的公司真实盈余管理程度。(2)委托代理问题是企业进行盈余管理的重要原因,而“陆港通”机制开通后,能够缓解标的公司代理矛盾,进而约束管理层的真实盈余管理行为。(3)当资本市场信息环境改善、管理层面临较大股票抛售压力以及大股东监督力度较强时,“陆港通”抑制企业真实盈余管理行为的治理效果更强。本文结果表明,资本市场开放有助于提高我国上市公司财务信息披露质量及公司治理水平。     

Financial Liberalization and Allocation of Capital: Dark Side of the Moon

Although it is well established that financial liberalization leads to a positive ‘quantity effect’ with higher levels of investment, it remains uncertain whether it also improves the efficacy with which such investment funds are allocated. This paper contributes to this sparely researched aspect of liberalization (‘quality effect’) by carefully examining if the financial reforms in India have led to an improvement in the allocation of resources. Since one of the premises of better allocation is that funds are channelled to firms with higher marginal returns to capital (measured by Tobin’s Q), we propose three unique measures to track the efficiency of resource allocation: (a) dispersion-based measures; (b) the allocative efficiency index; and (c) the relative value of allocation. Contrary to the prevalent assumption that financial liberalization leads to higher capital allocation efficiency, this study’s findings could not establish a direct correlation between the opening up of markets and higher allocation efficiency, except for the latter part of the reform period. Further, this paper draws attention to the greater misallocation of funds in the post-reform period, as the increase in funds availability leads to excess capacity creation in some industries without consideration of the need for concurrent return or demand. The authors of this paper recommend that any financial liberalization needs to be accompanied by the setting up of institutions for corporate control, particularly in an emerging market like India.

     

Modeling services liberalization: The case of Kenya

This paper employs a 55 sector small open economy computable general equilibrium model of the Kenyan economy to assess the impact of the liberalization of regulatory barriers against foreign and domestic business service providers in Kenya. The model incorporates foreign direct investment in business services and productivity effects in imperfectly competitive goods and services markets endogenously, through a Dixit–Stiglitz framework. The ad valorem equivalent of barriers to foreign direct investment have been estimated based on detailed questionnaires completed by specialists in Kenya. We estimate very substantial gains to Kenya from regulatory liberalization in business services, and additional gains from uniform tariffs. The estimated gains increase to 50% of consumption in the long run steady state model, where the impact on the accumulation of capital from an improvement in the productivity of capital is taken into account. Decomposition exercises reveal that the largest gains to Kenya will derive from liberalization of costly regulatory barriers that are non-discriminatory in their impacts between Kenyan and multinational service providers.     

资本账户开放顺序的国际实践及对中国的启示

开放资本账户既是我国金融改革的发展方向,也是我国经济开放的必然目标之一.资本账户开放能够促进我国许多领域的改革,是不可阻挡的必然趋势.我国有必要参考其他国家的成功经验,采取适当的方式尽可能地减少开放过程中的各种风险.本文选取三个典型国家作为研究对象,对其资本账户开放的实践过程进行综合比较,重点考察了开放顺序,以期为我国资本帐户的开放提供些许借鉴.     

资本账户开放与系统性金融危机

本研究以全球范围内具有代表性的55个国家的跨国数据为基础,通过实证分析系统考察了资本账户开放和系统性金融危机之间的相关关系.实证结果表明,在资本账户开放和系统性金融危机的联系机制方面,重要的是开放方式的选择,而不是开放程度的高低:长期中资本账户开放程度的提高不会诱发金融危机,但激进式的资本账户开放方式会显著增加金融危机的发生概率.     

Trade Liberalization in the Presence of Foreign Direct Investment and Tax Credits: Estimates for Costa Rica

The paper uses a calibrated general-equilibrium model to quantify the welfare impact of trade liberalization—and compute the optimal tariff structure—for Costa Rica when trade-policy-induced foreign direct investment and international capital taxation with credits are present. It shows that complete trade liberalization reduces Costa Rica's welfare, as it leads to an outflow of capital and loss of tax revenue which more than offset the efficiency gains from an enhanced resource allocation. The optimal tariff structure for the Costa Rican economy turns out to be a mixture of relatively small import tariffs and subsidies.     

Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Liberalization: the Case of Korea

The macroeconomic effects of capital account liberalization in Korea are examined. Simple data analysis suggests that capital account liberalization substantially changed the nature and composition of capital flows. Based on the VAR model, the authors find the following stylized facts. First, after capital market liberalization, capital flows become less driven by current account imbalances and therefore become more autonomous. Second, capital account liberalization significantly changes the effects of capital flows on macroeconomic variables. Third, capital account liberalization is highly related to consumption and investment booms, and subsequent appreciation of nominal and real exchange rates, which leads to the current account worsening. Finally, there is strong evidence of sterilized foreign exchange market intervention in response to capital inflows.     

金融发展、资本账户开放与金融不稳定——来自中国的证据

文章建立一个由金融发展程度、资本账户开放与金融不稳定指标组成的向量自回归(VAR)模型,利用中国1982~2005年的年度数据对这些变量的长期协整关系和短期的调整动力学进行相关的时间序列分析。模型的估计结果显示,对于中国来说,金融发展程度、资本账户开放和金融不稳定之间存在着长期的协整关系,但三者之间的影响程度和方向各不相同。所有结果均显示,无论从短期和长期看,金融发展程度对一国的金融稳定具有显著影响,对资本账户开放的进程也具有重要的影响。     

Is Trade Liberalization an Important Cause of Increasing U.S. Wage Inequality? The Interaction of Theory and Policy

The majority of mainstream economists believe that globalization and trade liberalization have had a minor role in increasing U.S. wage inequality. A minority argues that capital mobility and outsourcing indicate a larger effect. This paper first surveys these views, and then argues that how we understand the policy consequences of trade liberalization helps determine the character of our analysis of the issue itself. Thus, a shift in policy perspective, to consider the "equity costs" of trade liberalization in terms of eroded U.S. labor market institutions, produces a larger framework for analyzing the consequences of globalization and trade liberalization than is available in traditional comparative advantage efficiency reasoning. From this wider perspective, trade liberalization has likely had a greater impact on U.S. wage inequality than even the minority mainstream position allows.