CHILD CARE PRICES AND MATERNAL EMPLOYMENT: A META‐ANALYSIS

The literature estimates for labor force participation elasticity with regard to child care prices are extensive and varying. While some estimates imply substantial gains from child care subsidies, others find insignificant effects. To determine the causes of the variance, this paper reviews and analyzes the elasticity sizes using estimates from 36 peer‐reviewed articles and working papers in the literature. We start by reviewing the theoretical and empirical aspects related to participation elasticity with regard to child care costs, paying special attention to sample characteristics, methodological aspects, and macro level factors. We conclude by providing a meta‐regression using control variables based on our review of the literature to explain some of the differences between the estimates. As research builds on and improves the methods and assumptions in prior works, elasticity estimates have become smaller over time. This decline might also be partially explained by changes in labor market characteristics. In countries with high rates of part‐time work and very high or very low rates of female labor force participation, we find elasticity rates to be smaller.     

THE IMPACT OF LABOR MARKET REGULATION ON EMPLOYMENT IN LOW‐INCOME COUNTRIES: A META‐ANALYSIS

Controversy over labor market policy often centers on achieving a balance between preventing worker exploitation, and avoiding loss of productivity or employment through excessive regulation. Although the literature documenting the impact of labor market regulation on employment is extensive, there is a dearth of evidence on the impact of such policies in low‐income countries (LICs). Since it is easier for workers, especially women, to slip into the informal sector in LICs, regulations are likely to have stronger impacts on formal employment in these countries (but lower impacts on unemployment). We systematically reviewed available research from countries that are, or were until recently, LICs. Most studies document that more stringent labor regulations are associated with lower formal sector employment and higher informal sector employment. We also conducted a metaregression analysis of the impact of minimum wages on formal and informal employment. After controlling for publication bias, higher minimum wages are associated with lower formal employment and a higher share of informal workers.     

REAL‐TIME DATA AND FISCAL POLICY ANALYSIS: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

This paper surveys the empirical research on fiscal policy analysis based on real‐time data. This literature can be broadly divided into four groups that focus on: (1) the statistical properties of revisions in fiscal data; (2) the political and institutional determinants of projection errors by governments; (3) the reaction of fiscal policies to the business cycle and (4) the use of real‐time fiscal data in structural vector autoregression (VAR) models. It emerges that, first, fiscal revisions are large and initial releases are biased estimates of final values. Secondly, strong fiscal rules and institutions lead to more accurate releases of fiscal data and smaller deviations of fiscal outcomes from government plans. Thirdly, the cyclical stance of fiscal policies is estimated to be more ‘counter‐cyclical’ when real‐time data are used instead of ex post data. Fourthly, real‐time data can be useful for the identification of fiscal shocks. Finally, it is shown that existing real‐time fiscal data sets cover only a limited number of countries and variables. For example, real‐time data for developing countries are generally unavailable. In addition, real‐time data on European countries are often missing, especially with respect to government revenues and expenditures. Therefore, more work is needed in this field.     

THE REGIONAL EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

This survey provides an updated review of the empirical literature on the regional effects of monetary policy in economic activity by means of undertaking a threefold perspective. First, the main methodological dimensions of this literature are examined while pinpointing those modelling or methodological traits that constitute a source of diverging estimates and thereby produce inconclusive evidence. Secondly, the estimates yielded by the literature are summarized by carrying out a cross‐study analysis of the results for each monetary union. By drawing on empirical regularities that are robust across studies, the conclusiveness of the results is assessed, while those monetary unions for which conclusive evidence is still lacking are also identified. Lastly, the sources of regional heterogeneity identified by these studies are reviewed in order to shed some light on the linkage between monetary policy and territorial heterogeneity. As a result of this threefold perspective, this survey delivers overall structured conclusions and updated policy‐relevant lessons. Moreover, various research gaps and emerging topics in the literature are also identified.     

EMPLOYMENT OF OLDER WORKERS IN POLAND: ISSUES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS1

The aim of this paper is to discuss barriers to the employment of older workers in Poland, where, due to various structural weaknesses and institutional arrangements, this problem has taken on a particularly acute seriousness. After analysing the causes of inactivity amongst older workers, the paper concludes by making policy recommendations.     

THE INNOVATION‐EMPLOYMENT NEXUS: A CRITICAL SURVEY OF THEORY AND EMPIRICS

Understanding whether technical change is beneficial or detrimental for employment is at the center of the policy debate, especially in phases of economic recession. So far, the effects of innovation – in its manifold declinations and intrinsic complexity – on labor demand have proven to be not unequivocal. This essay critically reviews the role of technical change in shaping employment dynamics at different levels of aggregation. First, it disentangles theoretically the role of different compensation mechanisms through which employment adjusts after an innovation is introduced. Second, it critically presents the most recent empirical evidence on the topic, with a focus on methods and limitations. Finally, it provides an attempt to conceptualize a number of stylized facts and empirical regularities on the innovation‐employment nexus.     

THE ECONOMIC EFFECT OF HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS FOR THE U.K., GERMANY AND JAPAN

This paper attempts to estimate the marginal productivity of highway construction in the U.K., Germany and Japan during the 15 years following the first oil crisis. In addition, highway-improvement policy in Japan is evaluated using a simple macro-economic regression model. The following conclusions were obtained: in every country the marginal productivity of highway construction decreased over the period 1975-85, with the decrease most pronounced in Japan; subsequently, it increased slowly in the U.K. and Germany, with Japan leveling off though still having the highest value among the three countries; the U.K. maintained a high level of highway productivity largely as a result of a high degree of utilization. There is scope in Japan for attaining a higher level (approximately equal to that of the late 1970s) if the extent of highway utilization can be maintained by additional construction. This implies that future highway-construction policy should be of efficiency-seeking nature.     

TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AND EMPLOYMENT IN DERIVED LABOUR DEMAND MODELS: A HIERARCHICAL META‐REGRESSION ANALYSIS

The effect of technological innovation on employment is of major concern for workers and their unions, policy makers and academic researchers. We meta‐analyse 570 estimates from 35 primary studies that estimate a derived labour demand model. We contribute to existing attempts at evidence synthesis by addressing the risks of selection bias and that of data dependence in observational studies. Our findings indicate that: (i) hierarchical meta‐regression models are sufficiently versatile for addressing both selection bias and data dependence in observational data; (ii) innovation's effect on employment is positive but small and highly heterogeneous; (iii) only a small part of residual heterogeneity is explained by moderating factors; (iv) selection bias tends to reflect preference for upholding prevalent hypotheses on the employment effects of process and product innovations; (v) country‐specific effect‐size estimates are related to labour market and product market regulation in six OECD countries in a U‐shaped fashion; and (vi) OLS estimates reflect upward bias whereas those based on time‐differenced or within estimators reflect a downward bias. Our findings point out to a range of data quality and modelling issues that should be addressed in future research.     

A UNIFYING VIEW ON MULTI‐STEP FORECASTING USING AN AUTOREGRESSION

Abstract This paper unifies two methodologies for multi‐step forecasting from autoregressive time series models. The first is covered in most of the traditional time series literature and it uses short‐horizon forecasts to compute longer‐horizon forecasts, while the estimation method minimizes one‐step‐ahead forecast errors. The second methodology considers direct multi‐step estimation and forecasting. In this paper, we show that both approaches are special (boundary) cases of a technique called partial least squares (PLS) when this technique is applied to an autoregression. We outline this methodology and show how it unifies the other two. We also illustrate the practical relevance of the resultant PLS autoregression for 17 quarterly, seasonally adjusted, industrial production series. Our main findings are that both boundary models can be improved by including factors indicated from the PLS technique.     

MIXED‐FREQUENCY STRUCTURAL MODELS: IDENTIFICATION,ESTIMATION, AND POLICY ANALYSIS

The mismatch between the timescale of DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models and the data used in their estimation translates into identification problems, estimation bias, and distortions in policy analysis. We propose an estimation strategy based on mixed‐frequency data to alleviate these shortcomings. The virtues of our approach are explored for two monetary policy models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

JUSTIFYING A POLICY MIX FOR POLLUTION CONTROL: A REVIEW OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE

Abstract This paper provides a review of economic studies analysing the use of multiple policies – a so‐called policy mix – to cope with single pollution problems. To guide and structure the review, an analytical framework is developed and applied. The framework integrates transaction costs into the analysis of pollution problems and policies to overcome them. Moreover, it understands a pollution externality not only as a market failure but more generally as the failure of private governance structures. Based on this insight, two rationales for using a policy mix are identified. First, a policy mix may help to correct for multiple reinforcing failures of private governance structures, such as pollution externalities and technological spillovers. Second, a policy mix can be employed if the implementation of single first‐best policies brings about high transaction costs, e.g. when marginal pollution damages are heterogeneous or polluters are unlikely to comply with the policy. For each rationale, the relevant literature is presented. Based on the review, avenues for future research are identified.     

INTEREST RATE PASS‐THROUGH: A META‐ANALYSIS OF THE LITERATURE

The interest rate pass‐through describes how changes in a reference rate (the monetary policy, money market or T‐bill rate) transmit to bank lending rates. We review the empirical literature on the interest rate pass‐through and systematize it by means of meta‐analysis and meta‐regressions. Using the pass‐through to corporate lending rates as the baseline, we find systematically lower estimated pass‐through coefficients in studies that focus on the pass‐through to consumer lending rates and rates on long‐term loans. Also studies estimating the pass‐through by averaging all lending rates into one category report a lower pass‐through. Importantly, the interest rate pass‐through is significantly influenced by the country's macro‐financial environment. In economies with deepening stock markets, the estimated pass‐through strengthens significantly. Interestingly, after the global financial crisis, the pass‐through weakened across the board, including because of growing trade openness and supply chain financing, rising volatility and stock market turnovers, as well as declining central bank independence. Inflation targeting frameworks, if in place, helped diminish this pass‐through weakening.     

GLOBALIZATION AND PRODUCTIVITY: A SURVEY OF FIRM‐LEVEL ANALYSIS

Abstract Recent empirical studies which utilize plant‐ or establishment‐level data to examine globalization's impact on productivity have discovered many causal mechanisms involved in globalization's impact on firms’ productivity. Because these pathways have been broad, there have been few attempts to summarize the several and detailed mechanisms of self‐selection and learning at the same time. This paper examines seven pathways so that the clear‐cut consequences of the broad picture of globalization become visible. This strategy is useful for detecting missing links within and across the existing studies as well as for finding possible synergy effects among different mechanisms. Insightful policy implications may be derived from the comprehensive comparisons between the seven different pathways of globalization.     

EFFICIENCY OF THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM: A SUB‐STATE LEVEL ANALYSIS FOR WEST BENGAL (INDIA)

This paper attempts a sub‐state level analysis of health system efficiency, focusing on West Bengal, a low income Indian state. Using a stochastic frontier model, it provides an idealized yardstick for evaluation. Our results suggest that overall efficiency of the public health delivery system remains low due to considerable disparities across districts. This is owing to differentials in availability and utilization of inputs such as the per capita availability of hospitals, beds, and manpower, and adversely affects life expectancy. Overcoming these factoral disparities may help the deficient districts to improve life expectancy. It may require a considerable increase in medical and public health expenditure in rural areas in the state and especially calls for resource mobilization to improve infrastructure facilities and maintain essential supplies at primary health centers. This could be attempted partly through funds from the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) and by improving rural sanitation in poorer districts.