The Effect of Employment while in High School on Educational Attainment: A Conditional Difference‐in‐Differences Approach*

Using American panel data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, this article investigates the effect of working during grade 12 on attainment. We employ, for the first time in the related literature, a semiparametric propensity score matching approach combined with difference‐in‐differences. We address selection on both observables and unobservables associated with part‐time work decisions, without the need for instrumental variable. Once such factors are controlled for, little to no effects on reading and math scores are found. Overall, our results therefore suggest a negligible academic cost from part‐time working by the end of high school.     

Mortality Shocks and Survivors’ Consumption Growth*

In contrast to health shocks, mortality shocks do not only induce direct costs such as medical and funeral expenses and possibly income loss, but also reduce the number of consumption units in the household. Using data from Indonesia, it is shown that the economic costs related to the death of children and older persons seem to be fully compensated for by the decrease in consumption units. In contrast, when prime‐age adults die, survivors face additional costs and, in consequence, use coping strategies. These strategies seem to be quite effective, although households may face higher long‐term vulnerability.     

Land Sales and Rental Markets in Transition: Evidence from Rural Vietnam*

Impact and desirability of land transfers in post‐socialist‐transition economies have been subject of considerable debate. We use data from Vietnam to identify factors conducive to the development of land markets and to assess potentially differential impacts of rental and sales. Results show that both rental and sales transfer land to more productive producers but that rental is more important for the poor to access land that becomes available as the non‐farm economy develops. The fact that secure land rights significantly increase supply of land to the rental market suggests that government has a key role in facilitating emergence and functioning of efficiency‐enhancing land markets.     

The Effects of Cannabis Use on Wages of Prime‐age Males*

This paper uses a data set collected among inhabitants of Amsterdam, to study whether wages of prime‐age male workers are affected by cannabis use. The analysis shows that recent cannabis use has a negative effect on wages. The size of the wage effect depends on the age of onset. The earlier the start of cannabis use the larger the negative wage impact.     

Labour Demand,Flexible Contracts and Financial Factors: Firm‐Level Evidence from Spain*

We estimate models of labour demand for a panel of 3,400 Spanish manufacturing firms over the period 1985–2001. We examine the roles of fixed‐term contracts, financial factors and a policy reform in 1997 affecting permanent contracts by lowering payroll taxes and dismissal costs. Compared with permanent employment, the demand for flexible labour displays: (i) greater sensitivity to financial factors; (ii) greater cyclical sensitivity; (iii) a larger average wage elasticity; and (iv) less inertia. Our analysis of the 1997 policy reform suggests that a 5 percentage point reduction in the payroll tax is associated with an 8% increase in permanent labour demand.     

Dragon Children: Identifying the Causal Effect of the First Child on Female Labour Supply with the Chinese Lunar Calendar*

Instrumental variables (IV) estimates of the effect of fertility on female labour supply have only been able to identify the causal effect of second and higher parity children. This study uses exogenous variation in fertility caused by the Chinese lunar calendar to identify the effect of the first child. Additionally, weighting formulas are presented to interpret IV estimates as weighted average treatment effects in the case of multiple endogenous variables, which are useful when children vary in intensity by both number and age. The effect of the first child is found to be much greater than that of other children.     

Protecting Education for the Poor in Times of Crisis: An Evaluation of a Scholarship Programme in Indonesia*

This paper analyses the impact of an Indonesian scholarship programme, which was implemented in 1998 to preserve access to education for the poor during the economic crisis. Scholarships were targeted pro-poor and the allocation process followed a decentralized design, involving both geographic and individual targeting. The identification strategy exploits this decentralized structure, relying on instrumental variables constructed from regional mistargeting at the initial phase of allocation. The programme has increased enrolment, especially for primary school-aged children from poor rural households. Moreover, the scholarships seem to have assisted households in smoothing consumption during the crisis, relieving pressure on households’ investments in education and utilization of child labour.     

House Price Shocks,Windfall Gains and Hours of Work: British Evidence*

Do workers adjust hours of work in response to capital gains and losses? This paper investigates this question using British panel data on individual employees from 1992 to 2001. It investigates hours of work adjustments to two sources of capital gain: financial windfalls and real housing wealth gains. Significant reductions in hours are found for both men and women in response, in particular, to housing gains. Men appear to increase hours in response to real housing losses, whereas women reduce hours in response to real housing gains. Evidence on hours of work preferences suggests that observed adjustments are only partial responses.     

The Dynamics of Returns to Education in Kenyan and Tanzanian Manufacturing*

We use micro data on manufacturing employees in Kenya and Tanzania to estimate returns to education and investigate the shape of the earnings function in the period 1993–2001. In Kenya, there have been long‐run falls in the returns to education while for Tanzania there is evidence of rising returns in the 1990s. The earnings functions are convex for both countries and this result is robust to endogeneity. Convexity may be part of the explanation as to how rapid expansion of education in Africa has generated so little growth if expansion has been concentrated at lower levels of education.     

Parental Divorce and Students’ Performance: Evidence from Longitudinal Data*

In this article, we analysed data from the National Education Longitudinal Study to investigate whether experiencing parental divorce during adolescence had an adverse impact on students’ performance on standardized tests. To account for the potential endogeneity of parental divorce we employed double and triple difference models that rely on observing teenagers from intact and divorced backgrounds before and after the divorce occurs. We found that parental divorce does not negatively affect teenagers’ cognitive skills. Our results also suggest that cross‐sectional estimates overstate the detrimental effect of parental divorce.     

Efficiency Wages and the Economic Effects of the Minimum Wage: Evidence from a Low‐Wage Labour Market*

This article exploits a natural experiment provided by the 1999 introduction of the UK National Minimum Wage (NMW) to test for efficiency wage considerations in a low‐wage sector, the UK residential care homes industry. The empirical results provide support to the wage‐supervision trade‐off prediction of the shirking model and suggest that the NMW may have operated as an efficiency wage in the care homes sector, leading to a reduction in supervision costs. These findings can explain earlier evidence suggesting that although the NMW introduction increased wages dramatically in the care homes sector, it generated only moderate negative employment effects.     

Occupational Labour Demand and the Sources of Non‐neutral Technical Change*

This article introduces a two‐step empirical approach for examining both the nature and sources of non‐neutral technical change across multiple occupations. First, conventional labour‐demand parameter estimates and unbiased tests for neutrality are obtained in the context of a flexible cost system. The resulting input‐specific indices of technical change, unconstrained with respect to time path, facilitate subsequent evaluation of proposed sources. In our application to employment decisions of airline firms, we find labour‐saving technical change that is non‐neutral across occupations. We also document occupation‐specific responses to aircraft technology adoption, route system developments and an unprecedented range of technical change elements.

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Employment,Inequality and the UK National Minimum Wage over the Medium‐Term*

We assess the impact of the national minimum wage (NMW) on employment and inequality in the UK over the decade since its introduction. We evaluate its effects in each year, using an incremental differences‐in‐differences (IDiD) estimator. Identification is based on variation in the bite of the NMW across local labour markets and the different sized year on year up‐ratings. We find that an increased bite of the NMW is associated with falls in lower tail wage inequality. While the average employment effect over the entire period is broadly neutral, there are small but significant positive NMW effects from 2003 onwards.     

Institutions and Wage Determination: a Multi‐country Approach*

We present an empirical analysis of the determinants of labour cost in OECD countries, with particular reference to the impact of labour market institutions from 1960 to 1994. We show that labour market regulations can explain a large part of the labour cost rise in OECD countries in the last few decades once we control for productivity. These results are consistent with the findings of a companion paper [ Nickell, Nunziata and Ochel (2005) Economic Journal, Vol. 115, pp. 1–27] where the effects of institutions on unemployment are examined. We present also a discussion of the econometric issues related to the estimation of a macro pooled model like ours. We focus, among other things, on the hypothesis of poolability and on the cointegration properties of the model. The explanatory power of the model is finally tested by means of a series of country by country dynamic simulations.     

The Impact of Training on Productivity and Wages: Evidence from British Panel Data*

It is standard in the literature on training to use wages as a sufficient statistic for productivity. This paper examines the effects of work‐related training on direct measures of productivity. Using a new panel of British industries 1983–96 and a variety of estimation techniques we find that work‐related training is associated with significantly higher productivity. A 1% point increase in training is associated with an increase in value added per hour of about 0.6% and an increase in hourly wages of about 0.3%. We also show evidence using individual‐level data sets that is suggestive of training externalities.     

Testing Stationarity in Small‐ and Medium‐Sized Samples when Disturbances are Serially Correlated*

In this article, we study the size distortions of the KPSS test for stationarity when serial correlation is present and samples are small‐ and medium‐sized. It is argued that two distinct sources of the size distortions can be identified. The first source is the finite‐sample distribution of the long‐run variance estimator used in the KPSS test, while the second source of the size distortions is the serial correlation not captured by the long‐run variance estimator because of a too narrow choice of truncation lag parameter. When the relative importance of the two sources is studied, it is found that the size of the KPSS test can be reasonably well controlled if the finite‐sample distribution of the KPSS test statistic, conditional on the time‐series dimension and the truncation lag parameter, is used. Hence, finite‐sample critical values, which can be applied to reduce the size distortions of the KPSS test, are supplied. When the power of the test is studied, it is found that the price paid for the increased size control is a lower raw power against a non‐stationary alternative hypothesis.     

Simulation Estimation of the Convergence of the Black–White Earnings Gap and Income Dynamics*

In this article, the effect of Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act on the convergence of the black–white earnings gap and income dynamics is studied through the dynamic panel Tobit models implemented using the simulation estimators. It is found that the black–white earnings gap declined moderately after the implementation of Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act in 1965. Based on the simulation studies of wage trajectories, it is also found that the positive impact of the Civil Rights Act on the convergence of the black–white earnings gap is especially significant for the group of middle‐aged and highly educated workers. Moreover, the rich dynamic structure of the earnings process is identified from the Current Population Survey‐Social Security Administration data set. It is shown that the various sources of dynamics in the earnings process are dominated by spurious state dependence for both blacks and whites.     

Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from Long‐Horizon Regression Tests*

This article considers the long‐run relationship between nominal exchange rates and fundamentals from a different perspective. We apply a long‐horizon regression approach proposed by Fisher and Seater (1993) and find evidence supporting the explanatory power of exchange rate models. In particular, the Taylor‐rule model outperforms other conventional models. We then use the inverse power function (IPF) proposed by Andrews (1989) to investigate the power of the Fisher–Seater test. The IPF analysis provides additional evidence supporting exchange rate models.     

The Productivity Effects of Internal and External R&D: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Data Model*

We examine the impact of internal and external R&D on labour productivity in a 6‐year panel of Dutch manufacturing firms. We apply a dynamic panel data model that allows for decreasing or increasing returns to scale in internal and external R&D and for economies of scope. We find complementarity between internal and external R&D, with a positive impact of external R&D only evident in case of sufficient internal R&D. These findings confirm the role of internal R&D in enhancing absorptive capacity. The scope economies are accompanied by decreasing returns to scale at high levels of internal and external R&D. The analysis indicates that productivity grows by increasing the share of external R&D in total R&D.     

The Relationship between Unemployment Benefits and Re‐employment Probabilities: Evidence from Spain*

We provide the first Spanish evidence about the effects on re‐employment probabilities of variations in benefit levels and time‐to‐exhaustion. Increases in unemployment insurance (UI) benefit levels had a small disincentive effect on the re‐employment hazard on average. Around this average, there were larger disincentive effects for men with elapsed durations between 4 and 18 months, whereas for men unemployed longer than 18 months, or for men resident in the south, the effect was negligible. Re‐employment hazards increased when UI exhaustion was imminent, but the change was small. Extensions to unemployment assistance eligibility in 1989 for men aged 45+ years lowered re‐employment probabilities.