Monetary policy on twitter and asset prices: Evidence from computational text analysis

In this paper, we dissect the Twitter debate about the future course of monetary policy and trace the effects of selected topics of this discourse on U.S. asset prices. We focus on the “taper tantrum” episode in 2013, a period with large revisions in expectations about future Fed policy. Based on a novel data set of 90,000 Twitter messages (“tweets”) covering the debate of Fed tapering on Twitter, we use Latent Dirichlet Allocation, a computational text analysis tool, to quantify the content of the discussion. Several estimated topic frequencies are then included in a VAR model to estimate the effects of topic shocks on asset prices. We find that the discussion about Fed policy on social media contains price-relevant information. Shocks to the discussion about the timing of the tapering, about the broader economic policy context and worrying investors are shown to lead to significant asset price changes. We also show that the effects are mostly due to changes in the term premium of yields consistent with the portfolio balance channel of unconventional monetary policy.     

陕西中学生对体育课态度调查分析

为了对中学生的体育课态度调查分析,采用问卷调查法、数理统计法对陕西中学体育教师、学生及家长进行问卷调查,分析中学生喜好或讨厌体育课的理由。从而提出增强体育课的兴趣的建议。     

分析计算机技术与体育相结合在体育科研论文中的应用

运用文献资料法,数理统计法,对2002年～2009年国内11种体育类核心期刊中的体育与计算机技术结合的相关论文进行统计分析.揭示当前我国体育与计算机技术结合的特点与规律,找出当前我国体育与计算机技术结合存在的问题与不足,提出解决的方法与建议。     

Relative productivity growth and the secular “decline” of U.S. manufacturing

There has been considerable debate about the causes of the “decline” of U.S. manufacturing over the post-war period. We show that the behavior of employment, prices and output in manufacturing relative to services over this period can be explained by a two-sector growth model in which productivity shocks are the only driving forces. Household preferences turn out to play a key role in our model. The data are consistent with a specification where households are unwilling to substitute goods for services (the estimated elasticity of substitution is statistically indistinguishable from zero), so the economy adjusts to differential productivity growth entirely by re-allocating labor across sectors.     

体育教学中伤害事故探析

体育教学中出现的伤害事故是许多学校领导和体育工作者十分关注的问题，这个问题如果处理不好，必然会给学校和广大体育教师带来很大的精神压力，影响到体育教学的顺利进行。文章对体育教学中伤害事故发生的原因、责任归属、法律认定、负面影响、正确看待的心态、预防措施等方面作了有益的探讨，以期对减少体育教学中伤害事故的发生有所启发。     

A qualitative integration of self-determination theory and expectation-confirmation theory using physical education as an example

This study proposes a conceptual model based on both self-determination theory (SDT) and expectation-confirmation theory (ECT) using physical education as an example. It is important to try integrating SDT and ECT together given that satisfaction is a common core in both theories. In the proposed model, need support confirmation is influenced by support expectation and perceived support, while need satisfaction is influenced by support expectation and need support confirmation. Accordingly, being influenced by need satisfaction, self-determined motivation has a positive influence on students’ participation intention in optional PE courses. Finally, the discussion and limitation about the proposed model are also provided.     

Perception of organization's value support and perceived employability: insights from self-determination theory

Perceived employability (PE; i.e. the worker's perception about available job opportunities) is portrayed as the upcoming resource for workers and organizations. However, organizations might particularly want to stimulate perceptions of job opportunities on the internal labor market (i.e. internal PE). In contrast, they may be hesitant in stimulating perceptions of job opportunities on the external labor market (i.e. external PE), as this might foster workers' voluntary turnover. The contextual influences adding to these different types of PE are relatively unknown. Building upon self-determination theory, we argue that the organization's support of intrinsic (e.g. personal growth) and extrinsic (e.g. status) values may play a critical role. In line with expectations, the results reveal a positive association of the perceived organization's support of intrinsic work values and a negative association of the perceived extrinsic value support with internal PE, both in terms of a similar job (i.e. internal lateral PE) and a better job (i.e. internal upward PE). Unexpectedly, perceived organization's support of extrinsic values did not relate negatively to external PE. These results show that employers can invest in the workers' employability without disadvantaging the organization. To arrive at a flexible workforce, the support of intrinsic values is of key importance.     

Responsibility accounting and asymmetry of information

This paper uses the principal-agent model to show that a manager's optimal compensation should generally include non-controllable factors of production such as the firm's investment in capital. This implies that the managerial accounting distinction between profit and investment centres is artificial. Examples are shown in which the ROI or RI criteria could be optimal for compensating managers implying that the optimal compensation criterion is very much specific to the firm's production and risk parameters. Thus, the debate about which criterion is more appropriate is vacuous.     

辩论主义与我国民事诉讼辩论原则的比较研究

辩论主义是大陆法系国家民事诉讼法学中规定当事人有权能和责任收集诉讼资料的一项原则,辩论主义仅是当事人主义的重要内容和必不可少的一环。本文旨在理清辩论主义乃是当事人主义诉讼模式特性的一个重要方面的反映,它与我国民事诉讼辩论原则有着根本的区别。     

陕西省普通高校体育教师亚健康现状及其影响因素的调查与分析

体育是高校基础教学中不可缺少的科目之一,体育教师的健康状态关乎着学校体育教学工作稳定与发展,面对各种压力,高校体育教师的亚健康问题越显突出,笔者就陕西省普通高校体育教师的亚健康状况及影响因素做全面的调查与分析。     

Questioning the relevance of supplier satisfaction for preferred customer treatment: Antecedent effects of comparative alternatives and multi-dimensionality

Through the construct of supplier satisfaction, recent research explains the supplier's preferred treatment of a given customer. This cause-and-effect phenomenon is often not contrasted with other reasons or controlled for. This work addresses this issue and uses two tactics to elaborate upon social exchange theory, namely, construct splitting and construct contrasting, to analyse the development of preferential customer treatment. For this purpose, a structural equation model is used with data from the international automotive industry. The results extend the breadth of constructs explaining preferred customer treatment (PCT) and challenge the existing reasoning by questioning the relative importance of supplier satisfaction. While supplier satisfaction does affect PCT, the relative supplier satisfaction defined as a comparison of outcomes between the actual and the best alternative business relationships influences PCT much more.Furthermore, by distinguishing between the economic and non-economic dimensions of supplier satisfaction, the study indicate that economic satisfaction has a higher influence on the relative satisfaction whereas social satisfaction a higher one on absolute supplier satisfaction.These findings imply that despite the current debate about the importance of behavioural constructs such as supplier interaction and social capital, supplier resource allocation decisions are actually dominated by economic and relative aspects of satisfaction. This outcome calls for a more economically driven debate about behavioural supply management approaches.     

论理工类高职院校体育教学模式的选择

文章分析现有主要体育教学模式的特点与优缺点,根据理工类高职院校专业设置、课程安排的特点和不同专业对职业莳位体能的要求,对体育教学模式的选择进行了探析,为理工类高职院校体育教学改革提供参考。     

Dynamics of Trade Integration and Technological Convergence

The issue of the impact of trade on economic performance and labour markets has been intensively discussed in recent literature on trade liberalization and globalization, where the debate was mainly about identifying the relative impact of trade and technology. The bulk of the existing literature in this area employs, almost without exception, a static Heckscher-Ohlin framework that seems not to be a suitable tool for analysing the ongoing dynamics. This paper presents a dynamic multi-sectoral framework with heterogenous labour to explore the issue of trade liberalization and sectoral catching-up in productivity levels. The model is basically an input-output framework with Schumpeterian features; the latter are modelled as the impact of transitory rents that result from uneven productivity growth and technological catching-up upon the price and quantity systems of the trading economies. Relative productivity and wage rate dynamics across sectors determine the comparative costs and the dynamics of trade specialization. In the Appendix, the equilibrium solutions of the model are derived.     

中职学校体育课准备活动的认识

体育课的准备活动是体育课的基本部分。正确地认识准备活动的作用,有效地选择准备活动的内容与组织形式,能够使学生在体育课上做好身体、心理等方面的准备。在体育教学中,合理的准备活动能有效地避免学生肌肉、韧带等软组织的损伤,使学生有效地掌握运动技术技能,提高基本素质,保证体育课任务顺利完成。     

利用高校体育俱乐部资源,培养学生终身体育意识

高校体育工作的任务是培养大学生终身体育意识,推进素质教育进程,更好地推进德育、智育、体育全面发展。本文旨在对整合高校体育资源,促进学生终身体育意识的发展方面提出几点建议。     

The Scottish Enlightenment and Scottish Independence

As the 2014 referendum on whether Scotland should become an independent country approaches, there is increasing debate about the nature and advantages of the relationship between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. This paper seeks to examine the views on the Union between Scotland and England that are found in the writings of the main figures of the eighteenth century Scottish Enlightenment. It examines the arguments that Scotland's most famous social and political thinkers, such as David Hume and Adam Smith, put forward in favour of union with England and uses them to inform the contemporary debate.     

PE投资基金杠杆收购融资博弈分析

近年来,随着我国经济的快速发展,本土私募股权投资基金的规模日益壮大。但是,由于我国相关法律法规的限制以及市场信用体系还不够完善,本土PE投资基金与外资PE投资基金相比尚存在一定的差距,而杠杆收购作为一种新的融资模式,能在一定程度上缓解PE投资机构的资金短缺问题。本文通过构建信号传递博弈模型,在对杠杆收购两个利益主体之间的博弈关系分析中可以看出,债券利率水平高低对PE投资机构杠杆收购能否取得成功将起到重要的作用。     

Combining Opinions for Use in Bayesian Networks: A Measurement Error Approach

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical probabilistic models used for reasoning under uncertainty. These models are becoming increasingly popular in a range of fields including engineering, ecology, computational biology, medical diagnosis and forensics. In most of these cases, the BNs are quantified using information from experts or from users' opinions. While this quantification is straightforward for one expert, there is still debate about how to represent opinions from multiple experts in a BN. This paper proposes the use of a measurement error model to achieve this. The proposed model addresses the issues associated with current methods of combining opinions such as the absence of a coherent probability model, the loss of the conditional independence structure of the BN and the provision of only a point estimate for the consensus. The proposed model is applied to a subnetwork (the three final nodes) of a larger BN about wayfinding in airports. It is shown that the approach performs well than do existing methods of combining opinions.     

高校体育教师职后教育管理模式的探讨

本文针对一些高校,对自己应做的一些工作没有做到位,致使一些教师在入职后出现了这样或那样的问题,在入职后普遍出现了适应不良的现象,对这些问题做出了探讨,提出了建议。从行政主管部门的管理职能、培训部门的管理、教师任职学校职后教育的配套制度等方面对陕西高校体育教师职后教育管理模式进行了探讨。     

Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit

The financial crisis has brought the interaction between housing prices and household borrowing into the limelight of the economic policy debate. This paper examines the nexus of housing prices and credit in Norway within a structural vector equilibrium correction model (SVECM) over the period 1986q2–2008q4. The results establish a two way interaction in the long-run, so that higher housing prices lead to a credit expansion, which in turn puts an upward pressure on prices. Interest rates influence housing prices indirectly through the credit channel. Furthermore, households’ expectations about the future development of their own income as well as in the Norwegian economy have a significant impact on housing price growth. Dynamic simulations show how shocks are propagated and amplified. When we augment the model to include the supply side of the housing market, these effects are dampened.