Are complementary reforms a “luxury” for developing countries?

This paper investigates the impact of complementarity reforms on growth and how it depends on GDP per capita. Based on reform data for six policy areas compiled from various sources during the period 1994–2006 for over 100 countries, we compute composite indicators of reform level and complementarity. We provide qualitative justification for the existence of pair-wise complementarities among policy areas. We then use cross-section and panel data estimates to test the effect of reform level and complementarity on GDP per capita growth. We found reforms to be positively related and their dispersion (or the inverse of complementarity) negatively related to growth, controlling for initial conditions, monetary stability and other structural and institutional variables, as well as endogeneity of reform level and complementarity. We show that the effect of policy complementarity is a stronger condition for sustainable growth in developing than in advanced countries, to conclude that complementary reforms are not a ‘luxury’ for developing countries.     

Growth effects of structural reforms in Southern Europe: the case of Greece,Italy, Spain and Portugal

This paper develops a semi-endogenous growth model for analysing the intertemporal effects of structural reforms in Southern European countries (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece). The model follows the product-variety paradigm in a semi-endogenous setting, and includes a disaggregation of labour into different skill groups. We use a comprehensive set of structural indicators in order to calibrate the model to important macroeconomic ratios and levels of productivity and employment. Our results show that structural reforms yield significant economic gains in the medium and long run. The results point to the importance of product market reforms and labour market related education and tax reforms as the most promising areas of structural policy interventions. This paper also argues for placing more emphasis on education policy which is key in upgrading the labour force, especially in these countries where the share of low skilled labour is among the highest in the euro area.     

Policy effects of the elasticity of substitution across labor types in life cycle models

This paper investigates how the production function elasticity of substitution across different labor types impacts the results of policy analysis in multiperiod lived agent overlapping generations models. We critique and investigate the popular structure that simply assumes that workers with different age, experience or education are perfectly substitutable in production. This structure is inconsistent with empirical evidence of production complementarities. We couch our findings in the context of two types of policy reforms: a social security reform and a tax reform. These reforms were chosen in part not only because of the large interest in them, but also because of their differing effects on life cycle decisions. We find that ignoring production complementarity may influence the conclusions of policy analysis.     

MACROECONOMIC POLICY REFORMS AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE

This article employs a two‐stage procedure to investigate the impact of macroeconomic policy reforms on the agricultural productivity growth of 33 African countries from 1981 to 2001. In the first stage, we measure agricultural productivity using a nonparametric Malmquist productivity index. In the second stage, we build a generalized method of moments (GMM) model with a measure of structural adjustment program (SAP) intensity as a key instrument for macroeconomic policy reforms. We also control for the effects of globalization, civil violence, level of development of physical and financial infrastructure, and other economic variables as well as natural resource factors that directly affect agricultural productivity. Our results indicate a strong positive correlation between the extent of SAP intensity and agricultural productivity, suggesting that the macroeconomic policy reforms improved agricultural productivity growth in the sample countries. (JEL E6, O13, O41)     

The Collective Household, Household Production and Efficiency of Marginal Reforms

Most research on the welfare properties of taxes employs the unitary model of the household, ignoring household production. A simple model provides expressions for the changes in individual utility given marginal reforms to government policy. It is shown that the burden of a higher tax on household goods falls on the household member that consumes more than they produce or purchase. Numerical calculations show that price substitution (complementarity) between home and market labor increases (decreases) aggregate efficiency costs of a marginal redistribution of income without impacting the intra-household distribution of utility changes. Modeling household goods as public versus private can alter the distributional consequences of marginal reforms.     

CHINA'S ECONOMIC REFORM: THE NEXT STEP

China's economic reforms succeeded in decentralizing decision making power down to the local and enterprise level. This decentralization has permitted a vibrant non-state sector to emerge alongside the state sector. Growing out of the state plan accounts for much of China's spectacular economic growth. However, productivity in the state sector has experienced little improvement. One can trace recurrent macroeconomic imbalances and inflation to the state policy to provide cheap credit to cover the huge losses sustained by state-owned enterprises. Attempts to reimpose controls to cool down an overheated economy repeatedly have halted the momentum for economic reform. Failure to introduce banking and financial reforms threatens future growth of the non-state sector. The success of such reforms depends critically on efforts to restructure and privatize state-owned enterprises. Growing out of the state plan requires officials to adopt an explicit policy to stop supporting the losses in the state owned enterprises.     

The quality and quantity of bank intermediation and economic growth: evidence from Asia Pacific

We investigate the impact of the quantity and quality of bank intermediation on economic growth across 14 Asia-Pacific economies over 2003–2015. Measures of bank shareholder value efficiency as well as profit and cost efficiency are used as indicators of intermediation quality. We also employ measures of liquidity creation (fat and nonfat) as a proxy for the quantity of bank intermediation. Our main finding is that the quality of bank intermediation (enhanced credit allocation) is a driver of economic growth in developed Asia-Pacific economies, whereas it is the quantity of bank intermediation (capital accumulation) that positively influences growth in developing nations. From a policy perspective, our findings suggest that policymakers in developed nations should concentrate their efforts on reforms that enhance bank efficiency. Second, reforms that stimulate capital accumulation should be encouraged in developing economies because this is the main channel that spurs economic growth.     

REMITTANCES AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT: SUBSTITUTES OR COMPLEMENTS IN ECONOMIC GROWTH?

Recent studies indicate that the effect of migrants’ remittances on the economic growth of receiving countries depends negatively on the level of development of the domestic financial sector. In this paper, we introduce a new indicator of financial development to measure the efficiency of the domestic banking system, and find the existence of complementarity between remittances and bank efficiency in economic growth, such that remittances promote growth only in countries whose banks function well. This result is robust to controls for other traditional measures of financial depth and institutional quality indicators.     

Can specific policy indicators identify reform priorities?

Several detailed cross-country datasets measuring specific policy indicators relevant to business regulation and government integrity have been developed in recent years. The promise of these indicators is that they can be used to identify specific reforms that policymakers and aid donors can target in their efforts to improve the regulatory and institutional environment. Doing so, however, requires evidence on the partial effects of the many specific policy choices reflected in such datasets. In this paper we use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to document the cross-country partial correlations between detailed policy indicators and several measures of regulatory and institutional outcomes. We find major instability in the set of policy indicators identified by BMA as important partial correlates of similar outcomes: specific policy indicators that matter for one outcome are, on average, not important correlates of other closely-related outcomes. This finding illustrates the difficulties in using highly-specific policy indicators to identify reform priorities using cross-country data.     

Interest rate reforms,financial deepening and economic growth in Cameroon: an empirical investigation

The impact of interest rate reforms on financial deepening and growth in Cameroon is examined. We employ five proxies of financial deepening against deposit rate, a proxy for interest rate reforms. The impact of interest rate reforms on financial deepening is sensitive to the proxy used for financial deepening. The impact is almost negative and significant for all the indicators, except for the ratio of broad money to Gross Domestic Product, where it is positive and significant in the first lag. This means that financial repression helps improve broad money and hinders the development of the other indicators of financial development in Cameroon.     

Growth effects of FDI in 80 developing economies: the role of policy reforms and institutional constraints

Theoretical and empirical literatures have identified several channels through which foreign direct investment (FDI) influences economic growth. This paper examines the impact of FDI on economic output growth per worker using aggregate production function augmented with FDI inflows, economic policy reforms and institutional constraints. The paper covers 80 developing countries over the period 1980–2006. We use panel data and employ fixed, random effects and GMM methods for estimation. Our results highlight the importance of FDI, policy reforms and institutional development for growth in developing economies. Finally, we demonstrate that irrespective of reforms and institutions, an increase in FDI affects output growth positively.     

The real rate of protection: the income and insurance effects of agricultural policy

Agricultural price policies in developed countries aim at protecting farmers against both low and volatile world market prices. However, traditional indicators of protection only refer to the income (level) effect of policy. Following other research, it is argued that public policy can also yield an insurance (stabilizing) effect. In this paper a way to measure these dual effects is proposed. The method is illustrated with wheat market data for the USA and the European Union. Strong evidence is found that the insurance effect is an important component of protection, albeit a small one relative to the income effect. Policy support provided higher income and lower insurance effects in the EU than in the USA. For both markets, policy reforms in the 1990s led to significantly reduced income effects and smaller insurance effects. Without accounting for the influence of policy on income variability, traditional measures of protection will understate the real rate of protection.     

Non-cooperative and cooperative policy reforms under uncertainty and spillovers

When countries need to implement costly economic policy reforms, these often imply uncertainties about their effectiveness for the home country and their spillovers to other countries. We develop a model to show that under these circumstances countries implement too few or too many policy reforms. From a social perspective, too many reforms follow if the spillover effects of reforms become sufficiently uncertain. Since centralization of policies to correct inefficient policies is often not possible, we look for alternative instruments that can restore the efficient level of reforms. We compare subsidizing reform efforts with insuring against bad outcomes, and argue that subsidies are advantageous in terms of requiring less information for implementation.     

评估地方政府层面的制度改革:一个有待研究的领域

在地方政府层面,对制度改革政策的评估是目前政策评估领域中很少涉及的内容。文章将相关的方法运用到制度改革政策的评估中,从而对该领域的研究做出一些探索。文章将制度方面的政策(如地域性和功能性改革)概括为一类特殊的公共政策,并从概念上和方法上将其与普通的实体政策相比较。文章探讨了评估过程中存在的诸多问题,包括交易成本的确定和找寻制度改革的度量指标等。文章最后提出了关于功能性和地域性改革评估的分析框架,以便区别制度评估和绩效评估。此外,该框架还可以应用于比较性的评估研究中。     

The Political Economy of India's Economic Reforms*

This paper analyzes the history of the relationship between the state and the private sector in India. It concludes that India's economic reforms, which made development policy more dependent on international trade and private initiative, depended on the evolution of technocratic and political conviction. Reformers needed the support of financial crises for overcoming the powerful vested interests opposed to reforms. Successful reforms involved largely homegrown strategies of policy and institutional change. They have produced impressive growth rates and have benefited the rich and the middle class. The challenge for development and sustainable reforms is to make it more inclusive for poor farmers and unorganized workers.     

Growth-equity trade-offs in structural reforms

Do structural reforms that aim to boost potential output also change the distribution of income? We shed light on this question by looking at the broad patterns in the cross-country data covering advanced, emerging-market, and low-income countries. Our main finding is that there is indeed evidence of a growth-equity trade-off for some important reforms. Financial and capital account liberalization seem to increase both growth and inequality, as do some measures of liberalization of current account transactions. Reforms aimed at strengthening the impartiality of and adherence to the legal system seem to entail no growth-equity trade-off—such reforms are good for growth and do not worsen inequality. The results for our index of network reforms as well as our measure of the decentralization of collective labor bargaining are the weakest and least robust, potentially due to data limitations. We also ask: If some structural reforms worsen inequality, to what degree does this offset the growth gains from the reforms themselves? While higher inequality does dampen the growth benefits, the net effect on growth remains positive for most reform indicators.     

State-led or market-led green revolution? Role of private irrigation investment vis-a-vis local government programs in West Bengal's farm productivity growth

We estimate the role of private investments in irrigation in farm productivity growth in West Bengal, India between 1982 and 95. Using a state-wide farm panel, we find that falling groundwater costs generated significant growth in value added per acre for farms. These resulted from investments in minor irrigation which was stimulated by tenancy registration programs implemented by local governments. This helps account for substantial spillover effects of the tenancy reform on non-tenant farms noted in an earlier study. Hence the West Bengal Green Revolution of the 1980s benefited from complementarity between private investment incentives and state-led institutional reforms.     

Macroeconomic stability,structural reforms,and sluggish growth: The Mexican economy since 2008–2009 and the lessons of 2015

This paper examines the evolution of the Mexican economy since the crisis of 2008–2009. It focuses on the main economic indicators of the period and then turns to the changes in economic policy adopted by Peña Nieto’s government since late 2012 and the scope and shortcomings so far of these reforms. It then looks in detail at what happened in 2015, a year characterized by a deterioration of the external environment and by a number of puzzles. Finally, it addresses the short and medium term prospects of the economy under the present set of economic policies and the changes required to put the economy on a higher growth path.     

Employment- and growth effects of tax reforms

Since the mid-1990s almost all OECD countries have engaged in fundamental reforms of their tax systems. There is a trend towards higher social security contributions and lower tax rates on personal and corporate income. This paper explores whether these tax policy measures are effective means for reducing unemployment and accelerating economic growth. Using a Pissarides type search model with endogenous growth, we analyze how savings and the incentive to create new jobs are affected by revenue-neutral tax swaps between wage income taxes, payroll taxes, capital income taxes and taxes levied on capital costs. In our framework, cutting the capital income tax (reducing the double taxation of dividend income) financed by a higher payroll tax turns out to be superior, such a policy mix fosters both employment and growth. Most other tax reforms imply a trade-off between employment and growth.     

FIRM‐LEVEL INVESTMENT AND EXPORT DYNAMICS*

This article characterizes the complementarity between exporting and investment in physical capital. We argue that new investment allows young exporters to grow faster and survive longer in export markets while reducing their vulnerability to productivity or demand shocks across markets. We structurally estimate our model using detailed firm‐level data. We find that the choice of cost structure has a large impact on model performance and the estimated costs of exporting or investment. Using detailed capital and output tariff rates, we quantify the impact of policy change on aggregate export and investment growth.