The decline of US manufacturing productivity between 1941 and 1948

The view that war benefits potential output has been influential in treatments of US mobilization for the Second World War, where it has been largely premised on the benefits of learning by doing in producing military durables. If the thesis that war benefits aggregate supply is correct, it is indeed within manufacturing that we should most likely see its effects. Total factor productivity within the sector in fact fell at a rate of −1.4 per cent per year between 1941 and 1948, −3.7 per cent a year between 1941 and 1944, and −5.1 per cent a year between 1941 and 1945. The emphasis on learning by doing has obscured the negative effects of the sudden, radical, and temporary changes in the product mix, the behavioural pathologies accompanying the transition to a shortage economy, and the resource shocks inflicted on the country by the Japanese and Germans. From a long-run perspective, the war can be seen, ironically, as the beginning of the end of US world economic dominance in manufacturing.     

Fixed‐price contracts,learning, and outsourcing: explaining the continuous growth of output and labour productivity in the German aircraft industry during the Second World War1

In this article it is claimed that, at least in the aircraft industry, the development of German armament production and productivity was much more continuous than Wagenführ's armament index and both the Blitzkrieg thesis and the inefficiency thesis suggest. In order to prove this new thesis of continuity, we show on the basis of firm‐level data, firstly, that investment in production capacities had already started before the war and was especially high in the early phase of the war, and secondly, that the regulatory setting of aircraft production management was rather constant and was not dramatically changed after 1941. In addition, we demonstrate that the driving forces of productivity growth were primarily learning‐by‐doing and outsourcing, the latter being generally neglected by economic historians.     

军工企业债券融资的必要性分析及发展建议

随着社会的发展,军工企业资金筹集的渠道和融资结构也在不断变化,由计划经济时期的财政拨款逐步向市场经济体制下的多元融资转化。目前军工企业的发展资金除财政拨款外,多来源于银行贷款,部分来源于股权融资,而从优化融资结构理论及通货膨胀理论来看,债券融资是对企业较为有利的一种融资方式。本文将从军工企业发展需要及融资理论等方面论证军工企业债券融资的必要性,并通过总结近年来军工企业债券融资情况,分析目前存在的问题及相关发展建议。     

Nazi economic imperialism and the exploitation of the small: evidence from Germany’s secret foreign exchange balances, 1938‐1940

This article re‐examines the hypothesis of Hirschman and Child that Nazi trade policy before the Second World War exploited the smaller European countries. Archival evidence on foreign exchange balances for 1938‐40 shows that trade policies alone had only a small effect. Earlier dependence of south‐eastern Europe on Germany was caused partly by the collapse of south‐east European trade with the Soviet Union. Adjusted figures reveal a regional pattern similar to that of 1913. Generally, exploitation began with military occupation, but was then on a massive scale. Results again confirm Milward's findings on the westward orientation of the German war economy.     

‘Armament in depth’ or ‘armament in breadth’? German investment pattern and rearmament during the Nazi period1

Today, most scholars agree that Nazi Germany did not follow a premeditated Blitzkrieg strategy in the late 1930s and at the beginning of the Second World War. However, the question of the extent to which Germany's economy had been prepared for a longer war is still debated because statistical information on Germany's investment pattern is fragmentary and data on the structure of prewar German military expenditure are not available. Relying on newly discovered sources, this article closes these gaps. The Nazi regime clearly shifted its investment towards preparation for war from the mid‐1930s on, and though armaments purchases stagnated during the period from 1937 to 1939, investment in munitions industries grew considerably. Consequently, during the late 1930s the Nazis pursued a ‘sustainable’ rearmament strategy necessary for fighting a longer war. Yet, despite massive capacity enlargements in the munitions industries, total German investment was not unusually high by today's definition because contemporary figures included a significant amount of armaments purchases.     

Industrial Structural Change and Economic Growth in China, 1987–2008

The present paper studies the sources of economic growth and the nature of structural change in the Chinese economy from 1987 to 2008. Using a methodology that evaluates the contribution of an industry to economic growth, the present paper shows that the post‐2000 subperiod marked an increased reliance on the services sector as a source of growth in the Chinese economy. Much of the acceleration in real GDP or aggregate labor productivity growth in China in the post‐2000 subperiod compared to the pre‐2000 period can be traced to an increased contribution from service‐producing and high‐technology exporting manufacturing industries. The evidence indicates that the Chinese economy has been rebalancing toward domestic consumption and shifting its export sector toward high‐technology manufacturing industries.     

Second World War spending and local economic activity in US counties, 1939–58

Studies of the development of local economies often point to large‐scale Second World War military spending as a source of economic growth, even though spending declined sharply after demobilization. We examine the relationship between war spending per capita and the changes in economic activity in US counties between 1939 before the war and a period several years after the war. In the longer term counties receiving more war spending per capita during the war experienced greater population growth, but growth in per capita measures of economic activity showed little relationship with per capita war spending.     

Birgit Karlsson,Egenintresse eller samhällsintresse,Nazityskland och svensk skogsindustri 1933–1945

Abstract

In Vol. XV (1967) of this journal, Alan S. Milward and Jorg-Jöhannes Jäger published criticisms of my article on Swedish iron are exports to Nazi Germany.¹ Turning first to Milward's contribution, this is based on the assumption that the German economy was a ‘blitzkrieg war economy’ in the period preceding the attack upon the Soviet Union. This view, which has been expressed before by B. H. Klein, undoubtedly brings a number of valuable refinements into the hitherto exaggerated estimates of the level of German armaments at the outbreak of the Second World War.² But when he goes on to say that ‘in such a war economy all considerations of potential armaments-producing capacity were rejected in favour of present armaments-producing capacity’,³ Milward palpably oversimplifies a complex problem. In fact, the demand for an armaments programme ‘in depth’, to quote General Thomas, did make itself heard long before the autumn of 1941.     

Gerschenkron Redux? Analysing New Evidence on Joint‐Stock Enterprise in Pre‐War Shanghai

Alexander Gerschenkron (1904–78) famously postulated that the more backward an economy was at the outset of industrialisation, the more reliant it would be on state‐backed banks as a means of directing investment. Gerschenkron thereby implied that impersonal equity markets were likely to play a less significant role in countries aiming to catch up with the West. This article is aimed at examining Gerschenkron's thesis primarily through an analysis of shareholding in 1930s Shanghai. Drawing on newly discovered archival material as well as on recent studies, the paper clarifies the magnitude of joint‐stock enterprise and the ubiquity of stock‐exchange trade in a city that was by far China's most important economic hub. The pattern of joint‐stock enterprise in pre‐war China is compared with that of Japan, the first non‐Western society to become fully industrialised. The argument advanced is that Gerschenkron's thesis incorrectly played down the significance of impersonal equity markets to pre‐war Japan's successful industrialisation and to the limited nature of pre‐war China's industrialisation. Japan could sustain its industrialisation thrust in the early 20th century on a nation‐wide scale partly because of the growing vitality of its equity markets in Tokyo and Osaka. By contrast, China's pre‐war industrialisation was much less extensive because its equity markets were more limited.     

Taxation,warfare, and the early fourteenth century ‘crisis’ in the north: Cumberland lay subsidies, 1332–13481

Recent research into the impact of Anglo‐Scottish conflict on northern England's economy has become increasingly sophisticated, using local estate accounts to enhance understanding of the role of war in the 'crisis' of the early fourteenth century. Yet taxation data also remains an important source on these issues, not least because of its wide geographical coverage. Using a rich series of lay subsidy documents for Cumberland, this article concludes that the direct impact of Scottish raids was only one of several determinants of economic fortunes. More significantly, reconstructing the process of taxation shows that non‐violent resistance to state levies was as responsible as war damage for a decline in revenue from the county.     

For a fistful of pesetas? The political economy of the army in a nonconsolidated democracy: the Second Spanish Republic and Civil War (1931–9)

This article focuses on the importance of military factionalism in a nonconsolidated democracy: the Spanish Republic (1931–9). It builds a new micro-dataset for over 11,000 officers during the Spanish Civil War (1936–9) to study how professional and economic interests created divisions within the military and influenced officers’ allegiances during the war. Results confirm that distributional conflicts influenced officers’ decisions in Republican-controlled territories: officers who gained from military reforms in the years before the civil war and those with more rapid promotions in the months predating the war were more likely to remain loyal to the government. This article also explores the behavioural determinants of officers’ propensity to rebel and finds that hierarchy mattered, as senior officers influenced subordinates’ choices of side.     

Fair allocations in large economies with unequal production skills

This paper considers the problem of fair allocation among individuals with unequal production skills. We introduce the concept of productivity‐adjusted average no‐envy. It is shown that equal‐income Walrasian allocations are the only surviving allocations that are productivity‐adjusted average envy‐free and efficient when the original economy is infinitely replicated. We also examine local versions of productivity‐adjusted average no‐envy and other equity concepts.     

新“防务战略指南”:美国国防战略的转折

2012年年初美国政府高调出台的新"防务战略指南",其实质是美国的军事战略,是美国国家战略在军事领域的具体化,在美国战略体系中起着链接国家战略与军种战略、战区战略的作用,是2020年前美国防建设、战争和非战争军事行动的总纲。在"9.11"事件爆发以来的反恐战争基本结束和金融危机对美经济实力造成很大冲击的背景下出台的这一指南,无论时机、形式,还是其内容与核心思想,都带有转折性质。其主要特点有:坚持"军事优先",坚持"全球责任",立足长远考虑,强调协作、支撑,实行紧缩政策。可能带来减少对国际事务的投入、让其他国家承担更多的"全球责任"、给中东中亚扔下一个"烂摊子"、让亚太地区一些国家"选边站队"等影响。     

Impact of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Its Regional Economic Growth

This paper investigates the impact of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on its economic growth. By using a provincial‐level panel dataset and applying fixed‐effects and instrumental variable regression techniques, the study finds that both OFDI from provincial firms and OFDI from state‐owned enterprises have a positive impact on China's provincial economic growth. The positive impact of OFDI on provincial economic growth may be the result of reverse knowledge spillovers from OFDI to the home provincial economy through demonstration and imitation, labor movement, and backward and forward industrial linkages, thus increasing the productivity and the efficiency of home firms and promoting the growth of the home economy.     

ETHNIC BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT: THE AFRIKANER CASE, 1915‐1970

The struggle for racial or ethnic group worth is an important socio‐political issue in societies where a minority ethnic group, like the English‐speaking whites in South Africa or the Chinese in Malaysia, dominates the economy but not the political system. There are two routes to the empowerment of an economically backward group. In the Afrikaner case, economic mobilisation formed part of a general ethnic mobilisation. While the Afrikaner‐controlled state after 1948 massively aided all whites, Afrikaner business increased its market share through serving a niche market. It received little ethnic patronage from the state or assistance from English corporations. A quite different from of advancement is that driven by the state, which imposes on large corporations the obligation to promote the economic empowerment of a racial group. While the first form facilitated the rise of the ethnic group as a whole, the latter one benefited mainly a business and middle class elite that may remain dependent on continuing state support.     

Resourcing War While Containing Inflation: Debate among Australia's Second World War Economists

Early in the Second World War, Australian Government economists, including Financial and Economic Committee members, agreed that taxation was central to shifting resources from consumption to war spending and containing inflation. As Australia's war effort expanded in 1941–42, all advisers accepted the need for more economic controls. Differences emerged about the desired extent of controls. Some saw controls, including rationing and price stabilisation, as an alternative to higher taxation. In these debates and in policy determination, Keynes' views were influential, as to some extent were those of Kalecki and Balogh. Other influences included the policies of Australia's allies.     

20世纪初俄国军事经费的来源

军事经费的来源毫无疑问是任何一场战争都必须面对的一个基础性问题，寻找军事经费的来源是财政备战的最重要因素，没有相应的军事经费，战争就无从谈起。俄国在18世纪初成为世界强国之后，为了维持它的强国地位，坚持对外扩张的政策，连年战事不断。进入20世纪，俄国经历了日俄战争和第一次世界大战。然而对于财政经济状况不断恶化的俄国来说，面临战争经费短缺是很正常的，而筹措战争经费则属难事。俄国战争经费来源主要有税收、债务和发行纸币三个方面。     

Reputational recovery under political instability: Public debt in Portugal, 1641–83

This article examines the reputation recovery of Portugal's public debt during the war of liberation against the former Habsburg ruler. Using novel datasets on long- and short-term debt and nominal interest rates, this study provides evidence that the sovereign borrower used debt credibility to build a pact of regime in a revolutionary context with implications for financing the war. The Portuguese kings followed an implicit budget balance rule as a reputational scheme, which made Portugal an exceptional case of military success with a low debt-to-GDP ratio and low interest rates. These conclusions contribute to the literature in various attributes of war finance, debt management, and state-making by showing that default avoidance could be as important to military success as fiscal capacity.     

论战争在美国经济发展中的特殊作用

战争是推动美国经济发展不可或缺的手段，战争的种种红利客观证实了美国偏好战争的经济原因。在美国经济发展中，战争在带来国民收入、挽救经济萧条、刺激军事工业、扩大军火贸易、推动科技发展、获取资源和市场、吸引外部资本投入、催兴股市等方面发挥着特殊的作用。     

Dynamics between government spending and economic growth in China: an analysis of productivity growth

This study investigates the dynamics between government spending and economic growth in China through influencing the productivity growth of human capital byapplying Markov switching estimates for the annual time series data of China over the period 1952–2014. Firstly, we found that the Chinese economy exists in two states including state one with low growth and state two with high growth. Secondly, the consumption spending has significantly positive effect both states, while the military spending has only positive effect in state two. Interestingly, the growth effect level of consumption spending in state two is smaller than that in state one, implying a reducing effect of total factor productivity in state two. Thirdly, the combined effects of consumption spending and military spending with human capital are state dependent. This combined effect is reduced in both states, suggesting that government spending does not improve the productivity growth effect of human capital.