社会保险与收入流动性

本文利用中国家庭追踪调查数据（CFPS）,基于微观收入数据通过收入转移矩阵建立收入流动性指标,运用有序Probit模型与倾向匹配得分模型（PSM）,实证检验了社会保险对收入流动性的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明：第一,社会保险的覆盖面与全面性在收入流动性中发挥着正向激励收入阶层“向上流动”的作用;第二,社会保险的五大分类保险在收入流动性上均呈现显著的正向影响;第三,无论是城市居民还是农村居民,社会保险对收入流动性的提升均具有显著的积极作用,而社会保险的全面性对农村居民收入流动性的提升效果更佳。     

Employment,Social Mobility and Neighbourhood Effects: The Case of Sweden

In science and in society at large, there is a big debate going on about the existence and potential impact of ‘neighbourhood effects’. The dominant question is: does the social composition of the neighbourhood have specific positive or negative effects on the career prospects of those who are living there? We seek to contribute to this debate by investigating the relationship between individual social mobility and the social composition of the residential environment. For that purpose we analysed new longitudinal Swedish data, which is available at the individual level. We particularly focused our attention on the employment careers of individuals in relation to the levels of employment or unemployment in their individual environments. Environment effects on social mobility were isolated, controlling for relevant variables that were available at the individual level. We were also able to control for changes in the environments over time. Individual longitudinal data could be used over the period 1991–9. The analyses revealed that their environment appears to have a moderate yet clear impact on the employment prospects of unemployed individuals. The academic relevance of the article is in its contribution to the theoretical underpinnings of the human–environment relationship; the societal relevance is to the area‐based policies and the housing policies aimed at social mixing, which are currently being developed in many places in the Western world.     

Review of Non-Independence,Asymmetry, Skew-Symmetry and Point-Symmetry Models in the Analysis of Social Mobility Data

A non-standard log-linear approach is employed to fit the class of non-independence,asymmetric, skew-symmetric and inclined point-symmetry models to intergenerationalmobility table. While these models are not new, our goal in this paper is to present theimplementation of the models that are discussed here using SAS PROC GENMOD. This approach is used to fit these class of models to the 6 × 6 Brazilian social mobility data which has received extensive consideration in the literature, as well as to the 9 × 9 mobility table of men in England and Wales. These are further extended to two 5 × 5 mobility tables of men in the US aged 20–64. Parsimonious models are sought for each table and expressions for estimated odds-ratios under the appropriate models are provided based on our approach.     

Downward Mobility

A bstract . Absolute and relative downward income mobility during two periods of economic growth, 1976-1978 and 1984-1986, are examined using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Relative downward mobility occurred less frequently during the 1984-1986 period, but absolute downward mobility occulted more frequently during this same period. The characteristics of the downwardly mobile do not dramatically differ between the two periods. The majority live with a nonelderly, married, working man. Of the thirty-six demographic groups considered, women who separate or divorce face the highest risk of downward mobility. However, their risk declined from the late seventies to the mid-eighties. Persons whose household head was a race other than Caucasian and African-American experienced the greatest increase in risk.     

Measuring Career Mobility: An Empirical Comparison of Six Mobility Indexes

The current paper presents six indexes that can be used to characterize the course of a career during a particular time interval, respectively, (1) the total number of transitions during that interval; (2) the number of positive transitions; (3) the number of negative transitions; (4) the subtraction of the number of negative transitions from the number of positive transitions; (5) the relative uncommonness of the transitions; and (6) the subtraction of the number of negative transitions from the number of positive transitions, weighted by their uncommonness. Advantages and disadvantages of these six indexes are discussed. Further, an empirical example is presented that draws on data from a sample of 357 employed Dutch youth. Finally, our approach is compared to previous approaches (event-centered methods, such as survival analysis, and career-centered methods, such as clustering techniques). It is concluded that our simple approach complements these other approaches well.     

Mobility and optimal tenure choice

In this paper, we offer a dynamic model of the optimal tenure behavior of an individual who faces the possibility of moving multiple times during his lifetime. We also investigate the lifetime effects of such factors as income tax, property tax, transaction costs, and mortgage rates on the household’s tenure choice. The agents in the model utilize a genetic algorithm, a probabilistic search approach, to determine their optimal lifetime tenure choice path. The agents are forward looking in that they anticipate such possible events as changes in jobs, marital status, household size, or dissatisfaction with current residence. Our results suggest several housing policy implications and explain some of the empirical findings in the literature.     

北京城市内部居住迁移的空间模式研究

依托2008年对北京全境的一次大规模电话调查所获取的数据,首先讨论了北京城市居民迁居距离的数量特征、阶段特征、空间分布特征和影响因素,接下来讨论了北京城市内部不同区域的迁居数量特征,最后研究了跨区县人口迁居的空间模式特征,不仅刻画了跨区县人口迁居流场的总体特征,并在对比不同时期迁居流场的基础上总结了人口迁居在空间模式上的变化趋向.     

Residential Choice, Mobility, and the Labor Market

There is substantial evidence suggesting that the process of suburbanization creates new job opportunities that are not equally exploited by all workers. In order to explain this phenomenon, a simple model is developed which incorporates borrowing constraints as an important restriction on moving decisions, obstructing the necessary labor flows between jurisdictions required to equalize (net) wages. In essence, people who cannot borrow will be restricted in terms of their capability of changing residence location and therefore will have limited possibilities of working in distant labor markets, or they will be subject to excessive commuting. Furthermore, the labor allocation induced by households' behavior facing these constraints affects consumer welfare, production, and producers' profits. The outcomes with perfect credit markets and with borrowing restrictions are calculated and the economic welfare levels are compared. As wages are flexible, they adjust to reflect the relative scarcity of workers present in each jurisdiction. Consequently, some of the negative effects of the borrowing constraints are compensated, so the outcomes cannot be easily compared. Some numerical examples are constructed to have an idea of the possible outcomes under different conditions. Finally, it is found that allowing for moving cost deductions from taxable income may help to alleviate the problem.     

中国居民收入流动性的区域结构研究

改革开放以来,中国收入差距日益扩大。本文基于收入流动性结构视角,研究区域居民获取收入的机会公平性,通过CHNS提供的中国9省份调查数据,运用转换矩阵分析区域居民家庭1989～2011年收入流动性结构。结果表明西部地区贫富僵化的现象最为严重,东北地区则是富人的收入地位固化。用多元逻辑回归模型揭示职业特征、收入结构、支出结构和期初收入地位对收入流动性的影响显著。从制度和体制上推进“提低、扩中、控高”确实已刻不容缓。     

Local Labour Markets and the Interregional Mobility of Italian University Students

Abstract

This paper looks at a little-explored role that universities can play: that of representing a channel for brain gain, enabling regions to attract bright students who may decide to stay after they have graduated. In this way, universities can be a source of selective migration processes and possibly of diverging development paths, by augmenting the capability of economically dynamic regions to attract bright people from the lagging regions. In this paper, we argue that student mobility behaviour is a function not only of the quality of universities, but also of local labour market conditions in the destination locations. The paper relies on a gravity model, and shows that graduate migrations respond to several determinants, among which graduate job vacancies (that is, the dynamism of the local labour market) appear to be essential.     

The Year of Workers’ Mobility

The year 2006 is the European Year of Workers’ Mobility. This article seeks to assess how effective such a designation might be in the context of the problems that currently confront the EU. While it finds that the underlying potential is significant, the reality is that the year has been framed more with political than with social and economic goals to the fore and the result is a disappointment.     

Integrating the Social Structure of Accumulation and Social Accounting Matrix with the Social Fabric Matrix

The purpose here is to elaborate on the social fabric matrix approach (SFM‐A), and to assess the possibility of integrating it with the social structure of accumulation and the social accounting matrix.The SFM‐A to analysis and policy evaluation allows for cultural values, social beliefs, institutions, attitudes, technology, and the ecological system to be modeled into a system. The guiding goal is to work toward a more complete model of the provisioning process.     

Education and Intergenerational Mobility in Occupations

A bstract The problem of measuring the intergenerational transmission of inequality and its implications for social welfare is studied. A possible decomposition of relevant factors–namely, educational attainments and other factors–is proposed and applied to three individual data sets regarding Germany, Italy, and the United States. The main result is that educational attainment is responsible for almost half of observed immobility The possibility that increasing equality of opportunity in entering the educational system may result in less inequality in income distribution is considered.     

新生代农业转移人口垂直流动的影响因素及提升策略

新生代农业转移人口作为构成中国人口的一个重要组成部分,其进入城市后的垂直流动情况及相应的经济社会后果,关系到城镇化的健康发展和社会结构的优化。以重庆市为例,从收入变化、职业层次变化、自述变化三个方面来衡量新生代农业转移人口垂直流动指数,分析其影响因素。研究表明,不同年龄和性别农业转移人口垂直流动的状况不一样;受教育程度显著影响农业转移人口向上流动的空间;工作变化越频繁,越不利于农业转移人口向上流动,相对稳定的就业是推动农业转移人口向上流动的重要因素;学龄前或中小学阶段子女是否随迁也会影响到新生代农业转移人口的发展,决定其是否有向上流动的时间和精力。最后,提出新生代农业转移人口垂直流动提升策略。     

高流动性高模量聚丙烯的制备

研制了高流动性高模量PP。研究了不同增韧剂及其用量,滑石粉粒径及用量,偶联剂、润滑剂的添加与否对改性PP的影响。研究表明,当加入经过钛酸酯偶联剂处理过的,质量分数为24%,粒径为3000目的滑石粉,含量为10%的POE,且加入适量的润滑剂,即可得到一种高流动性和模量的改性聚丙烯。     

PREFIGURATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE: Mobility,Citizenship, and the Agency of Objects

This article examines the unsanctioned installation of infrastructure for walking and cycling as a site of possibility. In contrast to accounts of everyday urbanism that see in these kinds of interventions possibilities for a politics in which the state subsides, I find instead an effort to reclaim the state for more progressive purposes. I focus on groups calling themselves transformation agencies and departments of transformation to argue that DIY infrastructure is deployed on city streets not as an effort to subvert or supplant city authorities, but instead as prefigurative performances of city–citizen relationships ‘as if’ they were otherwise. Exploiting the plurality and contingency of the state and its legal forms, objects are installed to show how quickly things could be different, and sometimes they succeed in prompting significant shifts. Through guerrilla paint and pop-up posts, transformation agencies work prefiguratively to imagine and enact forms of citizenship that are not centred on automobility.     

Are Social Forums the Future of Social Movements?

Social Forums, modeled on the World Social Forums, are not social movements in the classic sense. They are not, and do not purport to be, the organizational form through which basic social change will be achieved, or can best be pursued. But they do bring together elements of many social movements, afford an opportunity for coalition‐building among them, frequently around urban issues, and thus make a significant contribution to achieving such change. Conceivably they may be the foundation for an international social movement for change, but if so it is likely to coalesce about a specifically political program. Some concrete suggestions are made which might enhance their effectiveness. Les Forums sociaux, sur le modèle des Forums sociaux mondiaux, ne sont pas des mouvements sociaux au sens traditionnel. Ils ne sont, ni ne sont censés être, la forme d’organisation permettant d’atteindre ou de mener au mieux un changement social fondamental. Cependant, ils réunissent des composantes de nombreux mouvements sociaux, leur offrent une possibilité de créer une coalition (souvent autour de problèmes urbains) et contribuent ainsi fortement à l’évolution visée. En théorie, ils peuvent servir de base à un mouvement social international en faveur d’un changement, quoique ayant alors tendance à s’unir sur un programme politique. Les suggestions concrètes qui sont formulées peuvent en améliorer l’efficacité.