Job Search and the Measurement of Unemployment in South Africa

We interrogate the distinction between searching and non‐searching unemployment in South Africa using data from the first national panel survey that tracks the individual. In particular, we test whether the non‐searching unemployed display a weaker commitment to the labour market than the searching unemployed, and we investigate what counts as search activity. We find that over the panel, the search status of the unemployed does not predict their subsequent employment status, a result that is robust also for subsamples that vary by age cohort, gender and location. Moreover, social networks are the most important job‐finding strategy of the employed. These findings challenge the exclusion of the non‐searching unemployed from the measure of “genuine” work seekers.     

Hukou and Graduates’ Job Search in China*

This paper presents evidence that graduates from rural areas, classified as non‐urban Hukou, choose to invest in higher levels of job‐search effort (as measured by number of different search methods used and the number of employers contacted) and also set a lower reservation wage, reflected in acceptance of a lower starting salary, than do comparable graduates of urban Hukou, in China. The former also appear to have higher probabilities of being employed, in terms of both their higher probabilities of receiving offers and, more importantly, their higher probabilities of acceptance. The evidence thus suggests that graduates with non‐urban Hukou face more intense pressure to gain employment in the period leading up to graduation, than do their urban counterparts. More generally, the evidence suggests that effort invested in job search is rewarded in the graduate labor market in China.     

Do E‐verify mandates improve labor market outcomes of low‐skilled native and legal immigrant workers?

We examine the impact of the 2007 Legal Arizona Workers Act (LAWA) on employment outcomes of low‐skilled legal workers. We use the synthetic control method to select a group of states against which the labor market trends of Arizona can be compared. Our results suggest that contrary to its intent, LAWA does not appear to have improved labor market outcomes of legal low‐skilled workers who compete with unauthorized immigrants, the target of the legislation. In fact, we find some evidence of diminished employment and increased unemployment among legal low‐skilled workers in Arizona. These findings are concentrated on the largest demographic group of workers—non‐Hispanic white men. While they are less likely to find employment, those who do have on average higher earnings as a result of LAWA. The pattern of results points to both labor supply and labor demand contractions due to LAWA, with labor supply dominating in terms of magnitude.     

How Do Local Labor Markets and Human Capital Affect Employment Outcomes after Job Loss?

This article uses the Longitudinal Employer‐Household Dynamics to evaluate how local industry concentration affects earnings losses for displaced workers. “Concentrated industries” are those industries with a high employment share within a labor market. This article compares earnings changes between displaced workers and job stayers within concentrated industries to the same within less concentrated industries. A separate comparison is made based on the expected level of job availability within the labor market. The findings show that earnings changes for displaced workers relative to job stayers are 7–13% higher within concentrated industries when job loss occurs during periods of high job availability. Earnings changes are 4.5–6% lower, however, when the same comparison is made during periods of low job availability. When firms are hiring workers, they are more likely to hire those previously employed within the same industry, since these workers have accumulated more relevant human capital.     

Reasons for college major-job mismatch and labor market outcomes: Evidence from China

Almost a quarter of recent college graduates in China are working in jobs that are not related to their college major—mismatched—due to various reasons. In this study, combining administrative records with survey data on a large sample of college graduates from the class of 2019 in a central province of China, we provide, to the best of our knowledge, the first evidence on the effects of different types of mismatches on a variety of labor market outcomes among recent Chinese college graduates. To address the endogeneity problem associated with mismatch, we use a variety of proxies for individual ability and resources, employ the propensity score matching strategy, and use the bounding analysis to examine the extent to which our estimates are sensitive to unobserved influences. Results show that workers who are mismatched due to personal interests (interest-mismatched) have better labor market outcomes than other types of mismatched workers, as well as matched workers, in terms of higher probabilities of getting promoted and receiving on-the-job training. Of all mismatched workers, skill-mismatched workers (mismatched due to a lack of skills) and demand-mismatched workers (mismatched due to jobs in related fields being unavailable) are associated with lower probabilities of job satisfaction, promotion, and job stability. Results from identification strategies reveal some evidence of selection on observed variables and some evidence of sample selection, but our findings remain consistent and most estimates are robust to a potentially relatively large influence of unobserved heterogeneity. Further analysis demonstrates some gender differences in the estimated effects of different types of mismatches on labor market outcomes.     

The Puzzling Pattern of Multiple Job Holding across U.S. Labor Markets

Multiple job holding (MJH) rates differ substantially across U.S. regions, states, and metropolitan areas. Rates decrease markedly with respect to labor market size. These patterns have been largely overlooked, despite being relatively fixed over (at least) the past 20 years. This article explores explanations for these persistent differences. We account for roughly two‐thirds of the mean absolute deviation in MJH across local labor markets (MSAs). The results suggest that variation in MJH across labor markets is driven by labor market differences in job opportunities and worker preferences. Most important in explaining variation in MJH are MSA industry and occupation structure, ancestry shares, commute times, and, to a lesser extent, labor market churn.     

Tattoos,Employment, and Labor Market Earnings: Is There a Link in the Ink?

The popularity of tattooing has increased substantially in recent years, particularly among adolescents and young adults. Moreover, tattooed images are permanent unless the individual opts for expensive, time consuming, and painful removal procedures. Given the increasing popularity of tattooing, and the permanent nature of this action, it is of interest to know whether tattooed workers are more or less likely to be employed and, conditional on employment, if they receive wages that are different from the wages of their non‐tattooed peers. To investigate these questions, we analyze two large data sets—from the United States and Australia—with measures of tattoo status, employment, earnings, and other pertinent variables. Regardless of country, gender, specific measures, or estimation technique, the results consistently show that having a tattoo is negatively and significantly related to employment and earnings in bivariate analyses, but the estimates become smaller and nonsignificant after controlling for human capital, occupation, behavioral choices, lifestyle factors, and other individual characteristics related to labor market outcomes. Various robustness checks confirm the stability of the core findings. These results suggest that, once differences in personal characteristics are taken into account, tattooed and non‐tattooed workers are treated similarly in the labor market. We offer suggestions for improving future surveys to enable a better understanding of the relationships between tattooed workers and their labor market outcomes.     

Real Interest Rate and Labor Market Performance around the World

This article studies the effects of the real interest rate on labor market performance. Using a much larger sample of countries and more indicators of labor market performance than have been used in previous articles, it finds that a rise in the real interest rate increases the unemployment rate, raises the share of long‐term unemployed, and reduces the employment rate. The magnitude of these effects is very small in the short run but much more pronounced—though still fairly small—in the long run. Young people are disproportionately affected. The results are robust to variations in specification.     

The impact of E‐Verify mandates on labor market outcomes

A number of states have adopted laws that require employers to use the federal government's E‐Verify program to check workers' eligibility to work legally in the United States. Using data from the Current Population Survey, this study examines whether such laws affect labor market outcomes among Mexican immigrants who are likely to be unauthorized. We find evidence that E‐Verify mandates reduce average hourly earnings among likely unauthorized male Mexican immigrants while increasing labor force participation among likely unauthorized female Mexican immigrants. Furthermore, the mandates appear to lead to better labor market outcomes among workers likely to compete with unauthorized immigrants. Employment rises among male Mexican immigrants who are naturalized citizens in states that adopt E‐Verify mandates, and earnings rise among U.S.‐born Hispanic men. There is no evidence of significant effects among U.S.‐born non‐Hispanic whites.     

Wage Consequences of Rapid Tertiary Education Expansion in a Developing Economy: The Case of Thailand

In recent years, Thailand has experienced the emergence of “overeducated” workers as the supply of university graduates in Thailand has outpaced growth in high‐skilled employment opportunities. Using the 2007 to 2009 Thai Labor Force Survey, this paper quantifies the incidence of overeducation and estimates overeducation wage penalties among male university graduates. The results show that the incidence of overeducation is greatest among younger cohorts. Quantile wage regression results suggest that overeducation wage penalties for older workers capture the impact of unobserved low ability on wages. In contrast, persistent wage penalties of 11–26% across the wage/ability distributions for younger workers are consistent with structural imbalances in the Thai labor market. These imbalances make it difficult for university graduates to find jobs commensurate with their level of formal education and to achieve their full earning power. The wage penalties are especially large for new entrants into the labor market.     

Adolescent Depression and Adult Labor Market Outcomes

This article uses recently released data from a national longitudinal sample to present new evidence of the longer term effects of adolescent depression on labor market outcomes. Results suggest reductions in labor force attachment of approximately 5% and earnings reductions of approximately 15% for individuals with depressive symptoms as an adolescent. These effects are only partially reduced when controlling for channels operating through educational attainment, adult depressive symptoms, or co‐occurring illnesses. Further, the unique structure of the data allows for high‐school fixed effects as well as suggestive evidence using sibling comparisons, which allows controls for potentially important unobserved heterogeneity. Overall, the results suggest that the links between adolescent depression and labor market outcomes are quite robust and important in magnitude, suggesting the need for further investments in treatment options and opportunities during adolescence, which will likely result in long term returns.     

The Relative Returns to Graduating from a Historically Black College/University: Propensity Score Matching Estimates from the National Survey of Black Americans

This paper considers the returns to earning a baccalaureate degree from a Historically Black College/University (HBCU) relative to a non-HBCU for black Americans. With data from the National Survey of Black Americans, we use propensity score matching estimators to estimate the treatment effect of graduating from an HBCU on direct labor market outcomes, and on psychological outcomes that indirectly increase wages. We find that the treatment effect of graduating from an HBCU relative to a non-HBCU is positive with respect to labor market and psychological outcomes across three decades. As our direct labor market outcome measure reflects permanent earnings, our results suggest that as HBCUs afford graduates relatively superior long-run returns they continue to have a compelling educational justification, as the labor market outcomes of their graduates are superior to what they would have been had they graduated from a non-HBCU.     

Evidence of Earnings Inequality Based on Caste in Nepal

In this article, the monthly earnings gap between Dalit and non‐Dalit caste members in Nepal is estimated using two methods: Blinder‐Oaxaca decomposition method and the matching‐based nonparametric decomposition method. The nonparametric decomposition method estimates the monthly earnings gap based on a one‐to‐many matching of the given income‐generating characteristics, taking into account the differences in the support of the distribution of those characteristics for Dalits and non‐Dalits. According to the results, the majority of the earnings gap between Dalits and non‐Dalits is attributed to the endowment effect. Dalits earn less than non‐Dalits because Dalits have some characteristics that non‐Dalits do not, that are unfavorable in the labor market. That this endowment effect works against Dalits could be a reflection of the social exclusion and job segregation faced by Dalits in the past.     

Discrepancy between Registered and Actual Unemployment Rates in China： An Investigation inProvincial Capital Cities

The unemployment rate is a key indicator of labor market and economic performance. Based on a unique survey, we estimate the unemployment rate at 13.44percent in 30 provincial capital cities in China in 2007, which is well above the officially announced registered unemployment rate. The discrepancy results from inaccuracy in the calculation of registered unemployment. The discrepancy is not stably evolving across regions or over the years, making it difficult to recover the true unemployment rate using a simple multiplier approach. We further investigate the sources of the discrepancy by examining the determinants of unemployment registration. It is evident that participation in certain public activities, which would facilitate the spread of knowledge related to job-searching and unemployment registration, encouraged unemployment registration. Social attention to government antiunemployment programs also encouraged unemployment registration. These findings confirm the behavioral hypothesis that incomplete knowledge and limited attention can cause deviation from optimal choice. The policy implications of the findings of the study are discussed.     

Identification of Job Lock and Inefficient Labor Market Mobility

The common practice of linking employment with certain fringe benefits, notably health insurance, has long been thought to impede labor market mobility, thereby producing a phenomenon called job lock. A sizable literature has developed theoretical frameworks for how job lock impacts the labor market and empirically estimated the magnitudes of these effects. However, most empirical studies rely on identification strategies that do not separately identify productivity enhancing from productivity reducing labor market mobility. This article develops a simple theoretical framework showing how prior identification strategies confound both types of mobility and outlines conditions where productivity reducing mobility is of greatest concern.     

Gender Effect in Explaining Mobility Patterns in the Labor Market: A Case Study of Turkey

This paper examines the importance of gender for different job mobility patterns using an extensive household survey data from İzmir, the third largest city in Turkey. The determinants of job‐to‐job and job‐to‐nonemployment transitions are analyzed with the help of a multinomial logit estimation method. The results indicate that there is a distinction regarding the probability of job mobility patterns based on gender. It is more likely for women to be engaged in job‐to‐nonemployment transition, whereas men tend to change jobs more often. Although gender plays a significant role in job mobility patterns, traditionally imposed social constraints associated with childcare and household duties provide us with mixed results considering the behavior of women in the job market. On the other hand, having highly paid and secure jobs decreases the probability of both patterns of job mobility.     

GRADUATE UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE FACE OF SKILLS SHORTAGES: A LABOUR MARKET PARADOX1

Analysts agree that South Africa's unemployment is structural in the sense that the unemployed generally possess lower skills than what is required by the economy. In the context of increasing demand for skilled workers due to technological changes and the need to become globally more competitive, graduates would be expected to find employment without difficulty. However, against expectations unemployment has been increasing among young people with tertiary qualifications since 1995. This paper investigates the nature of this phenomenon. Evidence suggests that learners are inadequately prepared for both tertiary studies and entry into the labour market. Lack of, or inadequate career guidance means that they do not choose fields of study and types of qualifications with good employment prospects. In addition, lack of soft skills and workplace experience mean that employers are reluctant to employ graduates, preferring more experienced people instead.     

Trends in worker displacement penalties in Japan: 1991–2005

We examine the period from 1991 to 2005 to document the effects of a changing Japanese labor market on the consequences of job change for workers, focusing on the change in the wages between initial and subsequent employment. During this period, job changes caused by separations from the initial job that were involuntary from the workers point of view increased and the wage losses from job change grew. As well, while age-earnings profiles for continuously employed career workers remained the same in 1993 and 2003, the age-earnings profiles of newly hired workers grew flatter during the period. Hence, an erosion in the earnings of newly hired workers relative to incumbent workers occurred and the effect was to increase the job change wage losses for older workers. Thus, while the losses from changing jobs grew in general, they also grew more age-related over the sample period.     

Optimal government spending in an economy with imperfectly competitive goods and labor markets

This article examines the growth‐ and welfare‐maximizing government spending in an economy that is characterized by market imperfections, namely, unionization in the labor market and monopolistic competition in the goods market. To thoughtfully explore the optimal spending, two distinct scenarios where the government spending is financed by labor/capital income taxes are considered. Our analysis shows that the optimal growth‐maximizing government spending is inconsistent with the welfare‐maximizing government spending. Moreover, the growth‐maximizing/welfare‐maximizing government spending have quite different responses to distinctive market imperfections (markups in the goods and labor markets), particularly in the scenarios with distinctive financing modes. Our numerical study indicates that the growth‐maximizing and welfare‐maximizing government expenditures, in general, are more responsive to the change in the labor market friction than that in the product market friction and the growth‐maximizing government spending is more likely to be lower than the welfare‐maximizing government spending.     

The long-term and intergenerational effects of early-life hunger experience on human capital and labor market outcomes

Using individual-level retrospective data on early-life hunger experience from China, we investigate the long-term effects of early nutritional deprivation on one's own and adult children's human capital and labor market outcomes. With an instrumental variable approach, we find that hunger experience lowers educational attainment and job quality of the first generation. But this negative impact on human capital does not transmit to the second generation, possibly due to parents' compensatory behavior of human capital investment and extra attention given to children. Our findings imply that the negative impact of non-extreme nutritional adversities on human capital and labor market outcomes are likely to decrease over generations.