国际碳期货CER和EUA尾部动态相关性及碳减排政策对其影响研究

配额交易和项目交易是国际碳市场的两大主要交易类型,选择《京都议定书》第一承诺期和第二承诺期具有代表性的碳期货CER和EUA为代表,采用GARCH模型族和时变Copula模型研究它们尾部动态相关性以及碳减排政策对其影响。研究发现：第一承诺期内到期的碳期货CER和EUA尾部相关系数动态演化过程具有“记忆性”,第二承诺期内到期的碳期货CER和EUA尾部相关系数演化过程具有一定的“自我矫正”能力;第一承诺期内到期的碳期货CER和EUA尾部相关性强于第二承诺期内到期的尾部相关性;第二承诺期内到期的碳期货CER和EUA,到期时间越晚,尾部相关性越弱,并且其在第一承诺期内的尾部相关性强于在第二承诺期内的尾部相关性,说明碳减排政策的变化对碳期货CER和EUA尾部相关性产生了影响。     

IF1006与沪深300:谁引导谁?

本文首先介绍了期货价格与现货价格关系的主要理论及研究现状,然后利用协整检验、Granger因果检验、GS模型以及误差修正模型对上海、深圳期货交易所沪深300指数与IF1006合约价格进行了实证分析,发现期货滞后价格对现货价格有引导关系,而现货滞后价格对期货价格没有引导关系,利用GS模型发现期货价格在价格发现功能中起主要作用.     

大连玉米期货价格发现功能的实证分析研究

本文借助向量自回归模型、协整检验、误差修正模型,方差分解等方法,以大连商品交易所玉米期货品种为例,研究了期货价格与现货价格之间的动态关系,定量刻画了期货市场在价格发现中的作用.研究结果显示:期货期货价格与现货价格存在相互引导关系,并且期货与现货价格之间存在长期均衡关系,对玉米期货来说,期货市场在价格发现功能中起到主导作用.     

基于VAR模型的黄豆期货价格发现的研究

本文借助向量自回归模型、协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验等方法,研究了大连交易所的黄豆期货价格与现货价格之间的动态关系,定量地刻画出期货市场在价格发现中作用的大小。研究结果显示,黄豆期货价格与其现货价格存在相互引导关系,而且两种价格之间也存在长期均衡关系。对黄豆期货来说,期货市场在价格发现功能中起到主导作用。     

中国饲料工业期货的价格发现实证研究

本文借助向量自回归模型、协整检验、误差修正模型、方差分解、脉冲响应函数等方法,以中国唯一的饲料工业期货———大连商品交易所豆粕期货品种为例,研究了期货价格与现货价格之间的动态关系,定量刻画了期货市场在价格发现中的作用。研究结果显示:豆粕期货价格与现货价格存在相互引导关系,并且期货与现货价格之间存在长期均衡关系,对豆粕期货来说,期货市场在价格发现功能中起到主导作用。     

我国股指期货价格发现功能的研究

本文根据沪深300股指期货高频数据,运用协整检验、Granger因果检验来分析股指期货同现货价格之间的领先滞后关系,借助VECM模型和GS模型方法揭示股指期货与现货在价格发现和信息传导中各自的重要程度,得出股指期货价格和现货价格间存在长期稳定的协整关系,股指期货具有价格发现的功能。     

我国期货市场期货价格发现功能的实证研究——以上海期货交易所黄金期货为例

本文通过建立带有滞后项的线性回归模型,来研究上海期货交易所黄金期货合约交易价格与上海黄金交易所黄金现货价格之间的引导关系,以此来研究我国期货市场的价格发现功能。主要结果表明黄金期货交易价格受到自身过去交易价格和黄金现货过去交易价格的双重影响,而黄金现货价格则仅受黄金期货过去价格的影响,表明了黄金期货价格对黄金现货价格有更强的引导作用,表明黄金期货价格发现功能的存在。     

不同到期日期货价格有效性的实证检验

随着期货市场对经济的稳定作用越来越明显,期货市场上现货价格与期货价格之间的动态关系以及我国期货市场的运行效率等一系列问题越来越受到监管者和投资者的关注。本文借助协整检验、误差修正模型(ECM)和脉冲响应等方法,以上海期货交易所金属铜期货品种为例,研究了不同到期日期货的期货价格与现货价格之间的动态关系,刻画出期货市场在价格发现中作用的大小。研究表明金属铜的期货价格与现货价格之间存在长期均衡关系,期货价格与现货价格相互作用、相互影响且互为因果关系,并且期货市场在价格发现功能中处于主导地位。     

不同到期日期货价格有效性的实证检验

随着期货市场对经济的稳定作用越来越明显,期货市场上现货价格与期货价格之间的动态关系以及我国期货市场的运行效率等一系列问题越来越受到监管者和投资者的关注。本文借助协整检验、误差修正模型(ECM)和脉冲响应等方法,以上海期货交易所金属铜期货品种为例,研究了不同到期日期货的期货价格与现货价格之间的动态关系,刻画出期货市场在价格发现中作用的大小。研究表明金属铜的期货价格与现货价格之间存在长期均衡关系,期货价格与现货价格相互作用、相互影响且互为因果关系,并且期货市场在价格发现功能中处于主导地位。     

A50股指期货与中国内地股市价格发现实证研究

股指期货异地上市不仅会对本土股票市场和衍生品市场产生多方面的影响,而且涉及到本土市场金融定价权等一系列问题。理论上期货价格与现货价格应存在长期关系,并且期货价格具有价格发现功能,先导于现货价格。通过实证研究发现,我国大陆股票市场先导于A50股指期货市场,虽然期货价格和现货价格存在显著的长期均衡关系,但A50股指期货价格发现功能并不显著;其作为一种金融投资产品,没有股指期货的功能,但它对大陆股市的影响仍需引起重视。     

The market microstructure of the European climate exchange

This paper analyzes the market microstructure of the European Climate Exchange, the largest EU ETS trading venue. The ECX captures 2/3 of the screen traded market in EUA and more than 90% in CER. Volume growth has averaged 277% in EUA between 2005 and 2009 and 724% in CER since 2007. Spreads range from €0.0188 to €0.0406 for EUA and €0.0276 to €0.0796 for CER. The median proportion of the spread due to adverse selection reaches 76% for EUA and 75% for CER. Realized volatility, bid-ask spreads and adverse selection costs decline with verified emission releases. Market impact estimates imply that an average trade will move the EUA market by 1.06 euro centimes and the CER market 1.45. The ECX is providing between 75% and 88% of price discovery for EUA trading and between 64% and 72% for CER. We find imbalances in the order book help predict returns for up to three days. A simple trading strategy that enters the market long or short when the order imbalance is strong is profitable even after accounting for spreads and market impact.     

Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions

Recent years have seen an expansion of carbon markets around the world as various policymakers attempt to reduce CO2 emissions. This paper considers two of the major types of carbon permits: European Union Allowances (EUAs, arising from the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, EU ETS) and certified emissions reductions (CERs, arising from agreements made under the Kyoto Protocol). The rules of the EU ETS allow for some use of CERs in place of EUAs by EU firms, but this substitutability is only partial. Allowing for carbon permits from different sources to substitute for one another should help achieve CO2 emissions reductions at least cost. Understanding the degree and nature of linkages (if any) between the markets for EUAs and CER is, thus, an important policy issue. In this paper, we jointly model the spot and future prices of an EUA along with the price of a CER using flexible multivariate time series methods which allow for time-variation in parameters. We find evidence of contemporaneous causality between these three variables with the EUA futures price playing the dominant role in driving this relationship. We also document time-variation in this relationship which is associated with macroeconomic events such as the financial crisis of late 2008 and early 2009. We find very little evidence of volatility spillovers or of Granger causality among any of the variables. We discuss how these empirical findings are consistent with markets which are loosely linked, but are not tightly linked as would be found for perfectly substitutable assets in efficient financial markets.     

我国黄金期货市场功能发挥的实证研究

本文运用协整检验、Granger因果检验、Garbade-Silber模型、误差修正模型等对2008年1月9日到2008年11月14日上海期货交易所黄金期货合约的价格发现功能和套期保值功能进行研究,结果表明:黄金现货价格对期货价格存在单向引导关系,在价格发现功能中,黄金现货价格起着决定性的作用,期货市场价格发现功能相对较弱。     

股指期货是股灾的“幕后推手”吗——基于2015年股灾期间沪深300股指期货高频数据实证分析

选取2015年6月15日至8月26日股灾期间沪深300股指期货与沪深300指数5分钟高频数据,通过E-G两步协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应模型等,对股灾期间股指期货市场价格发现功能及波动溢出效应进行实证研究.结果表明:股灾期间沪深300股指期货仍具备价格发现功能,但存在对现货市场的单向波动溢出,具有一定的"助跌"效应.     

试论我国碳排放权期货市场的构建

随着全球温室效应和气候变暖问题的日益严重,二氧化碳的减排越来越受到了人们的重视,以二氧化碳排放权为标的的国际碳排放权交易市场应运而生。期货市场具有价格发现、套期保值等功能,对于发展迅猛的碳排放权交易市场来说,建立碳排放权期货市场有重要的意义。本文首先简要介绍碳排放权交易市场,接着阐述我国建立碳排放权期货市场的必要性,然后分析我国建立碳排放权期货市场的可行性,最后提出我国开展碳排放权期货交易的设想。     

大陆与台湾股指期货价格发现功能比较研究

本文利用日内15分钟交易数据,对大陆与台湾股指期货的价格发现功能进行了比较,发现沪深300股指期货和现货间存在双向价格引导关系,但在信息传导效率上,期货领先现货,对台湾市场而言,仅存在期货对现货的单向引导关系;期货市场在长期价格发现功能中占主导地位,但台指期货的主导作用要强于沪深300股指期货。文章从投资者结构、合约设计、交易制度等影响因素分析了两岸股指期货价格发现功能的差异,并提出改善大陆股指期货价格发现功能的建议。     

The role of gold futures in mitigating the impact of economic uncertainty on spot prices: Evidence from China

This paper studies the co-integration relationship and volatility spillover effect between China's gold futures and spot prices through the VECM-BEKK-GARCH model. Then, MSGARCH and DCCE-GARCH are applied to study the relationship among China's gold futures market, spot market price volatility and the stabilization effect in uncertain economic environments. This paper enriches the current research, providing gold market participants with hints to address economic uncertainty. The empirical results show that China's gold futures market has a weak stabilization effect on spot price volatility. In scenarios with uncertain economic information and uncertain macroeconomic changes, the correlation between gold futures and spot price volatility is reduced in China, and the role of gold futures in stabilizing the spot price weakens. Furthermore, with economic uncertainty, the fluctuation range of the gold futures price is greater than that of the spot price, with a tendency of more frequent fluctuations. This also means that the effectiveness of the futures market in regulating the spot price will be reduced, and gold market regulators need to stabilize the market through alternative methods to futures.     

INTRADAY MARKET BEHAVIOR AND THE EXTENT OF FEEDBACK BETWEEN S&P 500 FUTURES PRICES AND THE S&P 500 INDEX

In this study we empirically examine the intraday lead/lag relation between S&P 500 futures prices and the S&P 500 index, and whether daily market characteristics are associated with changes in the relation. We estimate daily Geweke measures of feedback and regress time series of these measures on daily price volatility and volume characteristics. Results indicate that the contemporaneous price relation is substantive and that measures of contemporaneous feedback are positively associated with the daily range of the futures price. The primary implication is that the relation between cash and futures prices becomes stronger as futures price volatility increases. As volatility increases, information is being impounded at a faster rate so that futures and equity markets operate more closely as one market. Large futures price moves, by themselves, are not responsible for breakdowns in the stock-futures price relation.     

期货市场的交易量与价格波动

本文检验了美国期货市场WTI原油、S＆P500指数和10年期国债品种的日内、日间价格波动与日内交易量、隔日交易量之间的关系,发现预期的日内和隔日交易量都有平抑期货市场价格波动的作用,非预期的隔日交易量与期货价格波动之间有正相关关系,非预期的目内交易量对价格波动的影响不显著。从信息对称性的角度分析,预期的交易量中含有更多信息,能抑制期货价格的偏离;非预期的交易量主要由信息反馈者提供,他们往往对期货价格的变动做出过度反应,从而加剧价格波动。     

美国黄金期货与黄金现货互动关系的实证研究

文章通过建立误差修正模型（ Error Correction ModeL,ECM）和基于持有成本理论的误差修正模型（ Error Correction ModeL Cost of Carry,ECM-CoC）,对美国黄金市场的期货与现货市场在金融危机前后的互动关系进行了实证分析。结果表明：在2007年金融危机前美国黄金期货市场引导黄金现货市场,期货市场的价格发现功能得以实现;在金融风暴后美国黄金现货和期货市场存在双向引导关系;美国黄金期货市场和现货市场之间存在长期均衡关系,期货市场和现货市场均存在误差修正机制,美国现货市场价格恢复均衡的调整速度高于黄金期货市场。