Yen-synchronization of floating East Asian currencies: A regime-switching regression model and micro-structural analysis

Using a regime-switching regression model, we find evidence of synchronization between the Swiss-franc exchange rates of floating East Asian currencies and the Swiss-franc–Japanese-yen exchange rate over the period 1999–2006. The volatility of Swiss-franc–East-Asian currencies’ exchange rates is higher during the synchronization period than during the de-synchronization period. Contrary to traditional arguments concerning the yen-bloc, we find that the Export-Similarity Index and Foreign Portfolio Investment between Japan and East Asian countries are the two main determinants of yen-synchronization in the region. Finally, micro-structural analysis shows that the weeks of synchronization is greater when the yen is strong for Korea and Taiwan, but there are no asymmetric responses for Thailand, Indonesia, or the Philippines.     

Estimating forward-looking rules for China's Monetary Policy: A regime-switching perspective

This paper introduces a regime-switching forward-looking Taylor rule to describe the monetary policy behavior and considers its estimation using a two-step MLE procedure due to Kim and Nelson (2006), Kim (2009) and Zheng and Wang (2010). By doing an empirical analysis on quarterly data for China over the period 1992–2010, our results show that the actual reactions of China's monetary policy can be well characterized by a two-regime forward-looking Taylor rule. Furthermore, it is also suggested that the interest rate policy in response to inflation and output gap is asymmetric, behaving a significant characteristic of regime-switching nonlinearity. Specifically, in the first regime the People's Bank of China targets inflation, but not focuses on the output gap; while in the second regime the central bank targets the output gap and the policy rule is not a stable framework.     

Commodity price pass-through along the pricing chain

Review of World Economics - This paper analyses the commodity price pass-through along the pricing chain for the global commodity price index and the indices of its main categories (i.e.,...     

Exchange rate pass-through: evidence from the Syrian economy

This paper studies the exchange rate pass-through in the Syrian economy over the period 1990Q1-2009Q4. To this end it constructs a cost of imports indicator which is used in an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The findings point to a high and fast exchange rate pass-through effect. As a consequence, Syrian macro-economic performance is very sensitive to international price evolutions as well as depreciations of the Syrian Pound.     

Central bank intervention and exchange rate dynamics: A rationale for the regime-switching process of exchange rates

By proposing a stochastic intervention model of exchange rate determination, this paper provides an alternative rationale for the success of the Markov-switching model in explaining exchange rate dynamics. One extreme case is a pure floating rate model while the other extreme one is a driftless random walk model. The relation between the exchange rate and the future fundamentals under a non-intervention state is looser than the one under a pure floating exchange regime. This article also provides a method for detecting a central bank's interventions when intervention data are not available. Applying the stochastic intervention model to the monthly NT$/US$ exchange rates in 1989M1–2004M6, we find that it outperforms both the pure floating rate model and the random walk model in terms of the likelihood value and the diagnostic test of heteroscedasticity. In addition, with the constructed intervention state index in this article, the estimation of the stochastic intervention model is found to be consistent with the hypothesis that the regime switches of exchange rates are due to a central bank's (non-)interventions. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (1) (2007) 64–77.     

Exchange rate pass-through and rivalry in the Swiss automobile market

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Rivalry in the Swiss Automobile Market. —This paper investigates the pricing rivalry among foreign automobile producers in the Swiss market. The main results from the dynamic analysis of two categories of automobiles between 1977 and 1991 are: First, the degree of exchange rate pass-through differs among source-countries despite the absence of quantitative restrictions on imports and of domestic production facilities. However, for some countries, pricing strategies show remarkable consistency across product categories and time spans. Second, the degree of exchange rate pass-through is low, especially in the market for small-size automobiles. Third, this low degree of pass-through may be attributed to a low degree of competition among foreign sellers.     

Exchange rate pass-through in Korea and Thailand: Trends and determinants

An important but age-old transmission channel of global factors into domestic prices is via exchange rate movements. This paper examines the extent and evolution of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into Korea's and Thailand's consumer and import prices at the aggregate level for the period over the last two decades. We find that ERPT appears to be consistently higher for Thailand compared to Korea; while for both nations ERPT of their respective bilateral rates with respect to the US dollar is higher than with respect to the Japanese yen. The paper also investigates if and how ERPT has changed over time, especially during and after the currency crisis period of 1997–1998, as well as its macroeconomic determinants.     

Recent estimates of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the euro area

This paper provides an update on the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) estimates for 12 euro area (EA) countries. First, based on quarterly data over the 1990–2012 period, the study does not find a significant heterogeneity in the degree of pass-through across the monetary union members, in contrast to previous empirical studies. As the authors use a longer time span for the post-EA era than existing studies, this is not surprising, since the process of monetary union has entailed some convergence towards more stable macroeconomic conditions across EA member states. Second, when assessing the stability of pass-through elasticities, the authors find very weak evidence of a decline around the inception of the euro in 1999. However, their results reveal that a downtrend in ERPT estimates became apparent starting from the beginning of the 1990s. This observed decline was synchronous to the shift towards reduced inflation regimes in their sample of countries. Finally, the authors notice that the distinction between “peripheral” and “core” EA economies in terms of pass-through has significantly decreased over the last two decades.     

The impact of a change in exchange rate pass-through on U.S. imports

The Impact of a Change in Exchange Rate Pass-Through on U.S. Imports. - One import demand equation is specified that is potentially affected by a breakdown in pass-through and one that is not. From the difference in the forecasts of these two equations an upper-bound estimate is derived for the impact on U. S. non-oil imports of the breakdown in exchange rate pass-through during the 1980s. The empir-ical evidence suggests that exchange rate pass-through may have changed after 1985. Without this shift in pass-through U. S. non-oil imports may have been a maximum of 15 percent lower by 1990.     

Policy rate pass-through and the adjustment of retail interest rates: Empirical evidence from Malaysian financial institutions

The paper examines the interest rate pass-through from money market rates to various retail rates in Malaysia within the framework of an error-correction model. We estimate the short- and long-run interest rate pass-through and analyse the asymmetric behaviour of financial institutions under different monetary regimes. The results show that both deposit and lending rate pass-throughs are incomplete. However, pass-through and speed of adjustment vary across financial institutions and retail rates. This analysis also shows that interest rate adjustments are asymmetric, with more significant adjustments taking place under monetary easing than under monetary tightening. These results provide support for the existence of the interest rate channel of monetary policy in Malaysia. There is thus a need to conduct effective monetary operations to support efficient monetary transmission in Malaysia.     

人民币名义有效汇率变动对CPI传递效应实证检验——基于通货膨胀环境变化视角

通过将Taylor(2000)交错价格模型融入新开放宏观经济学模型(NOEM)导出实证模型,有效地将通货膨胀环境与汇率对国内价格传递相融合.选取1998年1月-2012年4月的数据对人民币名义有效汇率的消费者价格指数(CPI)传递效应在不同通胀环境下进行测算,在此基础上对传递途径进行了脉冲检验.实证结果表明,人民币名义有效汇率变动的CPI传递的长短期效应均较低且受通胀环境影响较大,1998年初至2002年末的持续低通胀环境阻碍了汇率传递所有渠道是导致传递效率低的原因所在,2003年初至2012年4月的较高通胀环境下汇率传递的货币渠道较进口商品价格渠道冲击显著但作用符号相反.     

A theoretical analysis of IPO underpricing

This paper provides a theoretical analysis of IPO underpricing and some testable hypotheses. Our model suggests that the IPO underpricing phenomenon can be explained by information asymmetry theory and agency theory in mature security market where market determines issuing price, but not in China＇s developing market where restrictions on issuing price exist. The IPO underpricing is actually a problem of asset pricing in China.     

A sociological analysis of minority business

This sociological analysis contends that minority business is foremost a group-level phenomenon and is highly dependent upon social group resources for its development. This approach has its origins in the fact that other interpretations of minority business do not adequately account for the large proportional differences of owners across ethnic/racial groups. Census data on specific groups are examined to demonstrate those differences, both in regard to business participation rates and self-employment income. To help explain the differences, major functions performed by self-help networks supporting minority business are reviewed from the sociological research literature. The final section contains several policy implications.     

人民币问题的中期分析

尽管我国政府已作出人民币不升值的郑重承诺，但升值的国际压力依然存在，本文在对影响人民币升值的政治和经济因素进行分析的基础上，进一步探讨中期内人民币升值的可能性。     

A cointegration analysis of dynamic externalities

This paper presents a cointegration analysis on the effects of dynamic externalities upon economic growth using time-series data from 1975 to 2003 on the one-digit industries of the Tokyo metropolitan area in Japan. Some new time-series econometric methods that have been recently developed to conduct unit root and cointegration tests are used in the analysis, allowing for an endogenously determined structural change in the time period studied. It also proposes a new type of dynamic externalities, called Network dynamic externalities, to represent knowledge spillovers resulting from the whole agglomerated area via transportation networks, and shows that they have cointegrated relations with the total factor productivity (TFP) of the manufacturing, finance, wholesale and retail trade, as well as the overall industries. In addition, evidence is also found that Marshall–Arrow–Romer (MAR) dynamic externalities, which are associated with own industrial production concentration, affect the TFP of most industries selected for estimation. However, Jacobs dynamic externalities, which are represented by the diversity of industrial production, only contribute to the TFP of the services industry, and Porter dynamic externalities, which are expressed by the competitiveness within industries, do not influence the selected industrial TFP.     

A multivariate analysis of DISC election decision

Conclusion This study found that the decision by management to establish a DISC unit may not be satisfactorily identified by the examination of the financial data on either anex ante orex post basis. However, examination of the responses to the questionnaires indicate differences in the perceptions of the management of the two groups are significantly different on a multivariate basis.A possible implication of this research effort is that the use of published financial data alone cannot adequately explain decisions made by management. Indeed, unless management's expectations are realized, use of published data alone may result in unwarranted conclusions.     

A fisherian analysis of individual retirement accounts

Conclusions This paper has employed a Fisherian analysis of intertemporal choice to evaluate the use of IRA's. The analysis shows that with perfect capital markets assumptions, the presence of IRA's will generate no other effect on savings than would a simple tax rabate. Further, it shows that if the tax revenue loss due to IRA's is not accompanied by an expenditure reduction, but is financed with taxes or borrowing, rational households will still employ IRA's, but their effect on intertemporal choice will be nil. The analysis also shows that IRA's do act as a savings incentive to the extent that there are market imperfections, specifically to the degree that transactions costs are important. However, empirical evidence from the literature does not lend firm support to this possibility. The conclusion is that a market imperfection is not a firm basis on which to construct savings incentives. Finally, one can note that the same analysis applies to any tax-based savings incentive that is designed to operate by lowering the tax on interest income. The reason for this finding is that the provision of tax sheltered interest income, along with the deductibility of interest on borrowing, creates general tax arbitrage opportunities for households and that tax arbitrage opportunities do not, in general, generate greater savings in an intertemporal choice model. It follows that significant restriction or elimination of the deductibility of interest on borrowing is a prerequisite for IRA's and other tax based savings incentives to produce their intended effect.     

Economic resilience: A two-country analysis

Summary Countries differ with regard to labour-market flexibility and animal spirits of entrepreneurs. The paper aims at an analysis of the consequences of these differences in a climate favourable to economic growth. For that purpose a two-country model is presented in section 2. Although wealth variables are taken into account, expectations are assumed to be static. Despite this simplification the model cannot be solved analytically. The role of a dynamic region (USA) versus a more passive region (Europe) is therefore studied by working through numerical examples.I am indebted to Ir. A. Markink for his invaluable assistance in all computations and to Professor S.K. Kuipers, Mr. A.B.T.M. van Schaik and Mr. J.H.M. Donders for comments on a previous version of the paper.     

A realist approach to equilibrium analysis

Conclusion Science seeks to explain objective facts by reference to constant relationships that link them to other facts. Yet economic science deals with human action, which is directed by individual choice, which seems by its very nature to contradict the notion of constancy. How can we reconcile the idea that there are laws of human action, that manifest themselves in market prices and the structure of production, with the idea that there is also freedom of choice? All modern discussions of the relevance of equilibrium economics revolve around this problem. We have argued that there are constant relationships in choice itself — in particular, in the dichotomy of success and failure. Recognizing this fact paves the way toward a realistic equilibrium analysis, which consists in comparing an actual choice with its counterfactual alternatives in terms of success and failure. This approach underscores Mises’s insight that equilibrium analysis deals only with a very limited range of phenomena — it is only a part of economic science. And, in distinct contrast to all previous approaches, it does not rely on fictions of the mind or unrealistic constructs. It is an integral part of a realistic science, a precious tool for the understanding of reality. Completion of this essay would not have been possible without financial support by the DAAD, the Humboldt Foundation, and the Mises Institute. Comments by Hans-Hermann Hoppe, Joseph T. Salerno, Christian Comanescu, Barry Smith, Jeff Tucker, David Gordon, Robert Murphy, Jeffrey M. Herbener, and Alexandre Padilla are gratefully acknowledged.