代际流动约束下生育率与收入不平等关系的国际检验

收入不平等问题和人口生育率过低问题是当下中国面临的两大难题,但目前理论界关于人口因素与收入不平等关系的研究,很少从生育率视角来考察以及考虑代际收入流动在其中的作用.文章从理论与经验两个方面来考察生育率对收入不平等的影响,理论模型表明:在关于代际收入流动的假设下,一个经济体中生育率的提高会使穷人比重提高,进而拉大收入不平等.进一步地,文章利用1970-2011年76个国家(地区)面板数据的经验研究发现:(1)总和生育率的提高会拉大收入不平等,如果每个妇女平均多生育一个孩子,将会使基尼系数增加0.025;(2)以出生率作为总和生育率替代指标的实证结果与基准结果基本一致,这说明不同生育率测算指标高度相关且可相互替代;(3)对于代际收入流动弹性越高、收入水平越低或生育率越高的国家(地区),其生育率提高对收入不平等的拉大作用越大.文章关于生育率对收入不平等影响的作用机制和异质性特征的考察,对于我国如何在实施"全面二孩"政策下寻求应对严峻的收入分配问题之策提供了国际经验和启示.     

对我国收入不平等与社会安定关系的审视

从20世纪70年代开始,国外学者就收入不平等与社会安定之间的关系做了大量的实证研究,并提出各种理论加以解释,而我国目前这方面的相关研究还相当欠缺.在我国收入不平等明显加剧和政府提出建设和谐社会的背景下,研究收入不平等对社会安定的影响具有重要的现实意义.本文采用多元回归方法对我国1981-2004年的相关变量进行实证研究,发现无论用城乡混合基尼系数还是用城乡居民收入之比来测度收入的不平等程度,收入不平等均对社会安定产生了显著的负面冲击.因而,切实采取各种措施缩小贫富差距,使收入差距维持在绝大多数社会公众所能容忍的范围内,对建设和谐安定的社会环境具有重要意义.     

收入不平等和中国经常账户失衡问题研究

文章通过理论分析和实证分析论证了收入不平等和中国经常账户失衡的数量关 系.首先构建了收入不平等和经常账户关系的两期模型,研究表明:低收入人群的跨期消费决策受到参照群体(高消费群体)消费外部性的影响,且这种影响随着收入不平等程度的增加而增加;同时,收入不平等对经常账户的影响与金融发展程度相关.随着收入不平等程度的增加,金融发展程度越高,经常账户越容易产生赤字;当金融发展程度较低时,低收入人群获得自由借贷的范围和水平受到限制,普遍推迟当前消费,进而导致经常账户盈余.文章还基于中国1980-2012年的统计数据,采用GMM估计方法对收入不平等和经常账户的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明:收入不平等是造成中国经常账户失衡的重要影响因素;收入不平等对中国经常账户的影响还受制于中国的金融发展水平.     

收入不平等对经济增长的倒U型影响:理论和实证

文章致力于从理论和实证两个维度,探讨收入不平等对长期经济增长"先促进后阻碍"的"倒U型"影响.文章首先基于一个拉姆齐模型,从理论上证明这一"倒U型"关系的存在;其次是构建实证模型,根据跨国横截面数据,分别运用OLS和GMM估计方法从实证的角度检验这一"倒U型"关系的存在.实证结果显示:GMM估计方法要优于OLS估计方法,在其他条件不变情况下,收入不平等有一个合理区间,如果以基尼系数衡量不平等程度,这一数值处于0.37-0.40之间.当一国初始收入不平等程度低于最优值时,可以通过提高收入不平等程度来加快经济增长的速度;反之,则应通过降低收入不平等程度来促进经济的增长.     

人口老龄化加剧了城乡收入不平等吗——基于中国省际面板数据的经验分析

城乡收入不平等和人口老龄化是当前中国面临的两大重要挑战,老龄化及其分布是否加剧城乡收入不平等亟需深入研究.利用中国30个省份2000-2014年的面板数据,通过静态固定效应回归和动态差分GMM方法系统考察了人口老龄化对城乡收入不平等的影响.实证结果发现:城乡人口老龄化系数比对城乡收入不平等具有显著的正向作用;人口老龄化对城乡收入不平等的拉大作用既来自于城乡少儿抚养系数比,也来自于城乡老年抚养系数比;人口老龄化对城乡收入不平等的效应具有显著的地区差异,经济发展水平越高的地区老龄化深化的作用效果越大.研究结果揭示了二元经济条件下农村剩余劳动力向城市部门流动对重塑城乡人口年龄结构并进而缓解城乡收入不平等的重要机制作用.据此,本文提出了应对人口老龄化不利影响的相关政策启示.     

收入不平等影响经济增长研究综述

本文首先按照时间顺序总结分析了国内外关于收入不平等影响经济增长的研究进展与研究前沿。早期国外学者关注的是经济增长对收入差距的影响,收入差距对经济增长的阻碍作用在20世纪90年代初开始受到重视,21世纪初国外研究重点转向区分收入差距影响经济增长对低收入国家和高收入国家的相反表现。国内关于收入不平等与经济增长关系的早期研究主要是对库兹涅茨“倒U型”假说在中国适用性的验证,随着对收入不平等关注的增强,学者们不仅仅关注收入不平等的原因,而且更加重视收入不平等的后果,研究的重点从经济增长导致收入不平等转向收入不平等如何影响经济增长。2005年前后开始陆续出现实证研究的相关文献,采用计量方法检验收入不平等对经济增长的线性影响作用。进入21世纪,国内学者开始关注收入不平等影响经济增长在经济发展不同阶段的异质性问题。其次,本文从影响机理、数据、方法和政策等角度对研究进展做了进一步总结。最后结合中国经济现实,提出未来可能的研究方向和研究空间。     

贸易开放度、FDI、财政分权对收入分配的影响

采用中国1985-2012年的发展作为时间序列数据样本,本文分析了贸易开放度、FDI以及财政分权对中国收入分配的影响.由于相关变量的协整阶数不同,本文在实证中采用动态最小二乘法进行回归.实证分析表明,贸易开放程度对收入分配的影响最为明显,违背了国际贸易理论中的斯托尔伯-萨缪尔森定理;同时,FDI对收入分配的作用在不同条件下具有双面性;财政分权和收入不平等之间没有显著的相关关系.     

互联网使用与农户收入不平等

基于2017年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据,采用内生转换模型对互联网使用与农户收入不平等的关系及其内在作用机制进行实证分析。研究发现：互联网使用缓解了农户收入不平等,基于反事实假设情景看,实际未使用互联网的农户若选择使用互联网,其收入不平等水平将下降21.4%;互联网使用对农户收入不平等的影响存在异质性,女性、中年和家庭经济状况低于平均水平的农户通过互联网降低收入不平等的作用更大;基于反事实假设看,初中及以下受教育程度或家庭经济状况低于平均水平的实际未使用互联网的农户,若选择使用互联网,其收入不平等水平下降幅度更大,若其实际使用互联网而选择不使用,其收入不平等水平将明显提高。在替换解释变量和估计方法后,上述研究结论仍然稳健。互联网使用通过信息效应和就业效应两条路径间接作用于农户收入不平等;其中信息效应具有完全中介效应,就业效应具有部分中介效应。     

关于开放条件下收入差距的理论探讨

随着近年来保护贸易的盛行与收入差距的持续扩大,对开放条件下收入不平等的研究成为国际经济学领域的热点.从开放的三种表现形式:商品/服务贸易、资本/劳动力的跨国流动以及技术的传播等角度入手,并结合制度因素,对有关开放与收入差距关系的研究做一回顾.综合来看,无论何种影响机制,最终渠道都是通过提高或降低对技术劳动的需求来影响收入差距,这与传统理论一脉相承.相关研究在放松原有理论假设条件的基础上,将分析角度从宏观转入微观,更侧重于从产业和公司层面对比研究.绝大部分理论认为开放可能导致收入差距扩大而不是降低它们,如何制定适当的国内再分配政策调节收入差距将是今后研究的侧重点.     

对外开放与收入分配——基于中国的经验研究

文章采用中国1985--2006年的时间序列数据,就对外开放与收入不平等的关系进行实证研究。发现衡量对外开放程度的两种指标对外贸易和外商直接投资都与收入不平等呈现倒“U”型的关系。但是,外商直接投资对收入不平等的影响超过对外贸易对收入不平等的影响。     

中国农村的收入差距与健康

随着收入差距的扩大,收入分配对健康和健康不平等的影响日益受到关注。本文利用中国健康营养调查(CHNS)1997年和2000年农村的面板数据回答两个问题:收入差距对健康的影响以及影响健康的方式;收入差距的扩大是否会导致健康不平等的加剧,尤其是低收入人群的健康是否受到更为不利的影响。研究发现,首先收入差距对健康的影响存在滞后效应;其次,收入差距对健康的影响呈现“倒U”型,在收入差距较高时,收入差距对健康的影响主要为负向的,一个可能的原因是收入差距影响到公共卫生设施的供给。再次,收入差距的扩大会加强收入效应,其含义是如果低收入人群的收入更容易受到负向冲击,那么收入差距对低收入人群的健康更为不利。     

包容性金融发展与城乡居民收入差距*——基于中国内地省级面板数据的实证研究

本文借鉴二元经济增长模型,分析了包容性金融发展与城乡居民收入差距的关系,并采用2011—2015年中国内地省级面板数据,运用面板数据模型和系统GMM模型对理论假设进行了实证检验。实证分析发现：（1）包容性金融发展对缩小城乡居民收入差距具有明显的促进作用;（2）传统银行的金融服务成本、互联网金融的数字支持服务程度对城乡居民收入差距的影响显著为负,这表明,包容性金融发展缩小城乡居民收入差距的直接作用主要是通过降低金融服务成本实现的;（3）传统银行金融包容性在缩小城乡居民收入差距方面的作用,东部比中西部更加明显,而互联网金融包容性对城乡居民收入差距的影响在中西部地区显著。据此,本文提出,应重视包容性金融发展的收入分配效应,以缩小我国城乡居民收入差距。     

Infant mortality,relative income and public policy

Do health outcomes depend on relative income as well as on an individual's absolute level of income? We use infant mortality as a health status indicator and find a significant and positive link between infant mortality and income inequality using cross-national data for 93 countries. Holding constant the income of each of the three poorest quintiles of a country's population, we find that an increase in the income of the upper 20% of the income distribution is associated with higher, not the lower infant mortality. Our results are robust and not just caused by the concave relationship between income and health. The estimates imply a decrease in infant mortality by 1.5% for a one percentage point decrease in the income share of the richest quintile. The overall results are sensitive to public policy: public health care expenditure, educational outcomes, and access to basic sanitation and safe water can explain the inequality–health relationship. Thus, our findings support the hypothesis of public disinvestment in human capital in countries with high income inequality. However, we are not able to determine whether public policy is a confounder or mediator of the relationship between income distribution and health. Relative deprivation caused by the income distance between an individual and the individual's reference group is another possible explanation for a direct effect from income inequality to health.     

Do Education and Income Really Explain Inequalities in Health? Applying a Twin Design

We apply a twin design to examine the relationship between health and education and income. The estimated associations between health and education and income, controlling for unobserved endowments, at the twin‐pair level, are lower than estimates obtained via ordinary least‐squares (OLS) on the same sample. Thus, OLS‐based effects of education and income are biased, exaggerating the contribution of education and income to health inequality. The main part of health inequality is explained by within‐twin‐pair fixed effects, incorporating family background and genetic inheritance. It appears that education and income policies have less to offer for reducing health inequality than is usually assumed.     

收入分配不平等、有效需求与经济增长——一个基于中国经济转型期的实证研究

本文从有效需求角度入手,探究中国经济转型期经济增长与收入分配不平等之间的关系,并运用中国1978-2005年间28个省市的面板数据,通过面板数据单位根检验、协整检验与误差修正模型,对中国经济增长与收入分配不平等、有效需求、劳动力、投资、教育以及收入分配不平等和有效需求交互影响之间的长期关系和短期关系进行了研究。结果显示,中国经济转型期经济增长与收入分配不平等、有效需求具有长期的均衡关系,收入分配不平等通过有效需求机制阻碍了经济增长,且在短期内效果也非常显著。     

Income, income inequality, and health: Evidence from China

This paper tests using survey data from China whether individual health is associated with income and community-level income inequality. Although poor health and high inequality are key features of many developing countries, most of the earlier literature has drawn on data from developed countries in studying the association between the two. We find that self-reported health status increases with per capita income, but at a decreasing rate. Controlling for per capita income, we find an inverted-U association between self-reported health status and income inequality, which suggests that high inequality in a community poses threats to health. We also find that high inequality increases the probability of health-compromising behavior such as smoking and alcohol consumption. Most of our findings are robust to different measures of health status and income inequality. Journal of Comparative Economics 34 (4) (2006) 668–693.     

The Impact of Natural Disasters on Income Inequality: Analysis using Panel Data during the Period 1970 to 2004

Although natural disasters have been found to influence economic growth, their impact on income inequality has not yet been explored. This paper uses cross-country panel data during the period 1965 to 2004 to examine how the occurrence of natural disasters has affected income inequality. The major findings of this study are that although natural disasters have increased income inequality in the short (5 years) term, this effect disappears in the long term (10 years). These findings are observed even after the fixed effects of year and country are controlled for.     

Health and income inequality: attempting to avoid the aggregation problem

Attempts to test the relative deprivation hypothesis, that income inequality affects individual health, are subject to the aggregation problem. Waldmann (Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 1992) ingeniously attempts to overcome the difficulty by using income data for the poor and the share of income accruing to the rich. The study finds that his results do not hold for a more recent data set and it suggests that his method may not overcome the aggregation problem.     

Finance,income inequality and income redistribution

Using a panel fixed effects model for a large sample of countries covering 1975–2005, we test the hypothesis that income inequality caused by finance (financial development, financial liberalization and banking crises) is related to more income redistribution than inequality caused by other factors. Our results provide evidence in support of this hypothesis. We also find that the impact of inequality on redistribution is conditioned by ethno-linguistic fractionalization. Our findings are robust to the inclusion of several control variables suggested by previous studies.     

How Many Jobs Must We Provide for a Balanced Postwar Economy

This study investigates how unemployment and income influence the length of time an individual remains in good health. This is a complex relationship since unemployment or low income deteriorates health but poor health can become a barrier to obtaining higher income or gaining re-employment. Data are from the British Household Panel Survey, using two measures of physical health: an index of mobility problems and a measure of self-assessed health. The results show that unemployment, low income and poor education adversely affect the time that people remain in good health. These results have important implications for public policy, particularly in an age of austerity when social protection mechanisms are under threat. In fact, the results suggest that to improve health and reduce health inequality, more investment needs to be directed at policies that enhance labour force participation, improve education and reduce income inequality.