The Theory of Exchange Rate Target Zones

The theory of exchange rate target zones focuses on the role of exchange rate expectations in determining exchange rate behaviour and interest rate differentials in currency bands. This paper analyses earlier models of the target zone research programme as well as more recent developments including endogenous realignment expectations, price rigidities and alternative monetary feedback rules by means of a unified approach. Target zones may be the cause of stabilizing or destabilizing exchange rate expectations, the determinants of which crucially depend on the within-band central bank policy as well as the credibility of the central banks' commitment to defend the target zone. The paper closes with a discussion of the relative merits of implementing a target zone and some suggestions for further research.     

Limited-dependent rational expectations models with future expectations

This paper examines limited-dependent rational expectations (LD-RE) models containing future expectations of the dependent variable. Limited dependence is of a two-limit tobit variety which may, for example, arise as a result of a policy of imposing limits on the movement of the dependent variable by means of marginal as well as intramarginal interventions. We show that when the forcing variables are serially independent the model has an analytical solution which can be computed by backward recursion. With serially correlated forcing variables, we discuss an approximate solution method, as well as a numerically exact method that, in principle, can be implemented by stochastic simulation, although in practice it is limited by available computational capacity. The paper discusses some properties of the approximate solutions and reports the results of a limited number of Monte Carlo experiments in order to illustrate the computational feasibility of using the exact solution when the fundamentals are serially independent and the approximate solution when they are serially correlated.     

EXCHANGE RATE TARGET ZONES: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

This work selectively reviews the literature on exchange rate target zones and their theoretical and empirical methodologies and examines whether they can be used to clarify to what extent this type of exchange rate regime could contribute to greater exchange rate stability. We discuss the main contributions of the first and second generations of exchange rate target zone models. In an attempt to reconcile the poor empirical performance of the Krugman model with the reality of exchange rate target zone regimes, this line of research integrates target zones with alternative underlying economic models, such as imperfect credibility, intra‐marginal interventions and sticky price models. It was thus possible to understand the correlations observed between the exchange rate, its fundamentals determinants and the interest rate differential, and to explain the fact that the statistical distribution of the exchange rate is hump shaped rather than U shaped. This implies that the initial emphasis of target zone models on nonlinearities, ‘honeymoon effect’, ‘smooth pasting’ and marginal interventions has vanished. Exchange rate target zones are better described as similar to managed floating regimes with intra‐marginal interventions, with some marginal interventions when the exchange rate reaches the edges of the floating band.     

A Jump-diffusion Model for Exchange Rates in a Target Zone

We propose a simple jump-diffusion model for an exchange rate target zone. The model captures most stylized facts from the existing target zone models while remaining analytically tractable. The model is based on a modified two-limit version of the C OX , I NGERSOLL and R OSS (1985) model. In the model the exchange rate is kept within the band because the variance decreases as the exchange rate approaches the upper or lower limits of the band. We also consider an extension of the model with parity adjustments, which are modeled as Poisson jumps. Estimation of the model is by GMM based on conditional moments. We derive prices of currency options in our model, assuming that realignment jump risk is idiosyncratic. Throughout, we apply the theory to EMS exchange rate data. We show that, after the EMS crisis of 1993, currencies remain in an implicit target zone which is narrower than the officially announced target zones.     

The currency denomination of external European Union imports after European Union expansion

Using a multiple market model I examine the impact of euro expansion on the optimal currency denomination of external EU imports. Results suggest euro invoicing will increase more in the EU-expansion country than in the original EU. Exporting firms from dollar bloc countries (the U.S. or countries with fixed exchange rates with the dollar) are more likely to invoice in the euro if price discrimination is already optimal. Firms from outside the dollar bloc are more likely to use the euro when the original EU market is relatively large or transaction costs of exchanging the euro are relatively small.     

The impact of offshore exchange rate expectations on onshore exchange rates: The case of Chinese RMB

This paper examines the impact of offshore RMB exchange rate expectations on onshore RMB (CNY) exchange rates. Employing data for the period of 2005–2018, we show that overall offshore market expectations influence onshore RMB rates, but this effect is significant only for the period after the “Second exchange rate regime reform” in 2010. The non-uniform nature of this impact is also confirmed by the existence of a threshold effect of the expectations in the same period. The study improves our understanding of how the offshore RMB market influences onshore RMB spot rates as a result of the marketization reform of the RMB exchange rate regime.     

Issues in New Political Economy: An Overview

A brief overview of the historical background, nature, and rapid growth in volume and scope of new political economy since the early 1980s is provided. the paper continues with some general reflections on the strengths and weaknesses of the new political economy approach, illustrated by the other contributions to this special issue of the Journal of Economic Surveys . The final Section summarises these contributions.     

A statistical identity linking folded and censored distributions

This paper models expected future values of Gaussian stochastic processes that are bounded by reflecting barriers. Such expectations are of course crucial to any model with forward looking agents. The approach is illustrated by applying it to an exchange rate target zone. By adopting a distributional approach, the formal analysis can be both simple and somewhat elegant. In doing so, we show that the first moments of folded and censored distributions are related in a surprisingly neat way. The setting is discrete-time, though where appropriate we extend the analysis to the continuous-time analogue of reflected Brownian motion.     

新时期思想政治工作方法有机结合应用的探讨

党的十一届三中全会开启了改革开放的历史新时期,从此人们的思想观念实现了从束缚、封闭到解放、进步、务实,再到开放、科学、创新的历史性跨越,要求我党的思想政治工作方法要与时俱进。新时期的思想政治工作,是为党的中心工作服务的,政治工作者通过一定的方法,让工作对象在思想、观点、政治立场上保持先进,具有鲜明的党性、实践性和群众性。思想政治工作的方法有很多,如何将现有的方法与工作对象有机地结合起来,是提高思想工作效率的关键,也是值得思想政治工作者探讨的新课题。     

对人民币汇率升值压力的思考

无论从国际方面还是从国内方面来看,当前的人民币汇率都存在较大的升值压力。虽然人民币升值能带来某些正面影响,但其负面影响更大。因此,应保持人民币汇率基本稳定,并采取有效的政策措施来化解人民币升值的压力。     

The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows

Despite the best efforts of economists, a basic paradox as to the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows remains unresolved at both the theoretical and empirical level. This paper surveys the vast literature in the area in an attempt to identify major issues which have contributed to the development of the debate and examine whether any general direction for consensus may be found.     

The Political Economy of Shock Therapy

The collapse of the centrally administered economies gave rise to a transition process towards economic systems based on market relations. Nevertheless, the transition process is not restricted to the economic field. The political and ideological aspects of the transformation are fundamental. As such an analysis of the shock therapy model requires the exposition of what I define the primary elements of the shock therapy model which are: 1) The body of economic analysis used by the shock therapy model. 2) What structure of society the shock therapy model desires to achieve? 3) The speed of the reforms. 4) The political structure consistent with the model. 5) The consistent ideological structure. After the identification of the primary elements of the shock therapy model the next’step’is to identify secondary elements, the desired changes with respect to: 1) ’Price liberalisation–stabilisation. 2) Privatisation. 3) Institutional structure. 4) ’Monetary policy. 5) Fiscal policy. 6) International trade and Foreign Aid. 7) ’Social policy. The analytical framework developed makes possible to understand the shock therapy model from a new and more enlightening perspective. We are better able to comprehend the complexities involved and the disagreements about the reform process.     

The Political Economy of Low Inflation

What are the politics of inflation? This question is usually raised solely when inflation rates are high. All levels of inflation, however, high and low, are the outcome of political conflicts. But no current approach to the study of inflation — sociological, neoclassical, modern political economy — adequately captures the full range of political issues at stake, and this leads to problems for both theory and policy. This paper critiques the existing perspectives on inflation and then focuses on three theoretical issues raised by those critiques: the economic costs of inflation; the concept of monetary neutrality from economic and political perspectives; and the importance of disaggregating economic growth statistics. Finally, the paper introduces and explores a contending approach to the analysis of the political economy of inflation: a ‘micro‐politics’ perspective. This approach is the only one to address the politics of low inflation, which is of great significance for contemporary political economy.     

Realistic Idealism and The Project of Political Economy

This paper explores the constraints that should inform understandings of which political economic institutions are both economically and political feasible and ethically attractive. Focusing on cognitive constraints and motivational constraints, it suggests that the classical liberal ideal of a society based largely on voluntary exchanges within a minimalist conception of justice comes closest to matching the terms of a ‘realistic idealism’.     

WORDS, DEEDS AND OUTCOMES: A SURVEY ON THE GROWTH EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

Abstract.  Recent studies on the growth effects of exchange rate regimes offer a wide range of different, sometimes contradictory results. In this paper, we systematically compare three prominent contributions in this field. Using a common data set, a common specification and common estimation methods, we argue that the contradictory findings can be explained by the fact that these studies use regime classifications which reflect fundamentally different aspects of exchange rate policy.     

市场经济条件下职工思想政治工作策略

本文主要从两个方面阐述了市场经济条件下,开展企业的思想政治工作的方法和策略。提出了要提高政治工作的实效性,应坚持的原则。     

Currency forecasting: an investigation of extrapolative judgement

This paper aims to explore the potential effects of trend type, noise and forecast horizon on experts' and novices' probabilistic forecasts. The subjects made forecasts over six time horizons from simulated monthly currency series based on a random walk, with zero, constant and stochastic drift, at two noise levels. The difference between the Mean Absolute Probability Score of each participant and an AR(1) model was used to evaluate performance. The results showed that the experts performed better than the novices, although worse than the model except in the case of zero drift series. No clear expertise effects occurred over horizons, albeit subjects' performance relative to the model improved as the horizon increased. Possible explanations are offered and some suggestions for future research are outlined.     

人民币汇率VS中美经贸关系

近十年,尤其金融危机后,人民币汇率一直是中美经贸摩擦的焦点之一。进入2010年以来,美方更是一直在喋喋不休,督促人民币升值。美国为何一直抓住人民币汇率问题不放?人民币汇率真的是影响中美双边贸易的核心问题吗?本文通过研究中美人民币汇率之争,探寻美国逼迫人民币升值的真实原因,分析人民币汇率改革对中美经济贸易的影响,建议中美双方理性认识人民币汇改与中美贸易关系问题,积极推进中美经贸稳定发展。     

Nonlinear dynamics of gold and the dollar

Notwithstanding the widely held view that gold and the dollar are negatively correlated, we ask when and why gold and the dollar sometimes depart from their typical inverse relationship and go so far as to move in parallel. Using a threshold vector error correction model (VECM), we investigate the nonlinear relationship between gold and the dollar. We find evidence of short run positive correlation between gold and the dollar under extreme market conditions. Our result suggests that the hedging property of gold is influenced by the gold-dollar threshold process.     

Korean Television Dramas and the Political Economy of City Promotion

This article examines the ways in which urban processes are associated with the production of culture. It does so by exploring how Korean cities sponsor drama. The historically conditioned and economically neglected status of regional cities, combined with elected local leaders' desire to promote their own areas, has led to a strategy to publicize them by leveraging the popularity of Korean television dramas in Asia. Two distinct types of drama sponsorship by cities — the construction of outdoor settings for drama and ‘city placement’ — manifest the interactions between story‐making and place‐making. The affective process that blends city sites with the characters, storylines and emotional flows of TV drama imbues those sites with a dramatic quality that stimulates the audience's empathy and persuasively motivates them to actually visit the places they have seen televised. Thanks to the broad penetration of television drama, sponsorship by cities has strikingly boosted drama‐driven tourism. Nevertheless, reflecting the speculative nature of TV drama, city promotion through this medium has had limited stability and sustainability. In sum, this article demonstrates that the production of Korean television dramas is deeply associated with the material and spatial conditions in Korean cities.