Technical change and industrial policy: The case of computer numerically controlled lathes in Argentina,Korea and Taiwan

This paper provides an analysis of how the substitution of computer numerically controlled (CNC) lathes for conventional lathes affects the conditions under which lathe producers in the newly industrializing countries (NICs) can successfully compete in the international market. Particular emphasis is given to the role of government policies in enhancing the competitiveness of CNC lathe producers in the NICs. The international market for lathes is analyzed, and it is concluded that the type of lathes that the NICs have specialized in producing is that which is mostly affected in the substitution process. We then proceed to map the barriers to entry into the production of CNC lathes, as well as to indicate the present position of some producers in Argentina, Korea and Taiwan within this industry. The role of government policy in fostering the production of CNC lathes is subsequently analyzed, where it is argued that firm-specific, custom-designed policies are the most efficient.     

HICs,MICs, NICs and LICs: Some elements in the political economy of graduation and differentiation

The demand by industrialized high-income countries (HICs) that the newly-industrialized countries (NICs) should ‘graduate’ out of the so-called Third World by surrendering preferential treatment in HIC markets and by gradually conforming to the rules of GATT is proving to be a contentious issue in North-South relations today. Having examined the concept and components of graduation and the origins of differential and preferential treatment for LDCs in world markets, the paper presents arguments for and against graduation distinguishing between its implications not only for HICs and NICs but also for other middle-income and low-income countries (MICs and LICs). Finally, the paper discusses criteria which might be used in the application of graduation and the countries and products to which itmight be applied.     

Growth and the Subsectoral Pattern of the Manufacturing Sector in Indonesia - A Comparative Study of 16 Countries

There is a widely held and optimistic view that, based upon the successful implementation of the product-cycle theory and the technological ladder hypothesis, ASEAN countries, the so-called Asian near NICs, will follow the Asian NICs up the ladder and take off as the second tier of NICs in the near future. To realise this ambition, each of the near NICs needs to successfully achieve two take-offs: first, rapid quantitative expansion based upon existing comparative advantage and, second, the successful transformation of their industrial structures to create dynamic comparative advantages. The Indonesian manufacturing sector recorded an average growth rate of 12% in 1980-90, but the accompanying structural changes were not great. The ‘rapid growth’but ‘modest structural change’of the Indonesian manufacturing sector raises the important problem of cultivating new leading sectors in the future. Usually the machinery subsector plays a big role in other ASEAN and NIES economies, but it still needs more momentum for development in Indonesia. This implies a strong need for the institutional and physical infrastructures, and supporting industries for the machinery subsector, as well as further diversification of the industrial structure. The purpose of this paper is to describe the features of industrialization in Indonesia in the 1980s, to measure the capacity of the transformation of the Indonesian manufacturing sector, and to discuss some policy issues related to furthering industrialization in the future. Section I contains some introductory remarks. In Section II, we implement the comparative analysis based upon two aggregate indicators. In Section III, we further analyse the structural changes at a more disaggregate level of 16 subsectors. In Section IV we concentrate on the machinery subsector, and analyse the growth potential and the necessary industrial policy in the medium or long run. In Section V we analyse the possible long-run development of a specialization pattern in the Indonesia manufacturing sector. We present the summary and conclusions with some relevant policy discussions in Section VI.     

Impact of International Trade with Asian Newly Industrialized Countries on Wages in the European Union

This paper deals with the effect of international trade with newly industrialized countries (NICs) on wage inequality in the European Union (EU). We apply a two-stage mandated wage-estimation procedure to assess the respective impact of trade and technology on the relative wages of low-skilled workers. We find weak evidence of a positive impact on the wages of high-skilled workers with regards to trade with high-wage South-East Asian NICs but no evidence for other groups of NICs. We also find evidence of technological change, induced by trade with high-wage South-East Asian NICs. However, this indirect effect of international trade seems to have reduced wage inequality in the EU.     

Comparing quotas with VERs: A three-region,North-South-NICs macroeconomic analysis

The paper presents a three-region macro-economic model of the North, South and NICs. Discriminatory commercial policy is undertaken by the North against the South and the NICs: a quota is used against the former and a VER against the latter. Contrary to most of the existing literature on macro-commercial policy, the initiator of the policy (the North) could gain from such a mixed commercial policy in terms of output and employment. This would normally be at the expense of the South (lower terms of trade), whereas the terms of trade for the NICs could improve, although not necessarily.     

How to Measure Globalization? A New Globalization Index (NGI)

This paper presents the New Globalization Index (NGI). It is a composite index constructed to measure the relative globalization level of a group of countries. With its 21 variables, it accounts for the multidimensionality of this phenomenon instead of relying purely on economic indicators. As compared to other existing globalization indices, three major innovations are introduced in the NGI. Firstly, five variables that have until now not been used in globalization indices enter the calculations, introducing some new and important aspects to the measure, such as international student mobility and environmental issues. Secondly, the NGI forms a weighted sum of bilateral trade flows using the geographical distances between trading partners as weights. This modifies the usual trade openness measure by placing more weight on distant trading partners. In effect, intra-regional trade is given a lower weight in the NGI. One of the effects of this procedure is a significant downward movement in the ranking of some EU countries, whose international openness comes primarily from trade within their region and reflects regional integration more than globalization. A final innovation in the NGI is the use of a statistical method (principal component analysis) to form subcomponents of globalization according to the statistical features of the variable structure. The goal of this step is the analysis of the multidimensionality of globalization. Three dimensions emerge by the use of this technique: finance, trade and politics, and social globalization. Principal component analysis is also employed for producing weights for individual indicators within the overall index. Additionally, a control for country size is employed for some of the variables, as has been done in some other globalization indices before. The final index contains 70 countries and covers a period between 1995 and 2005.     

Prospects of trade liberalization between the developed and the developing countries

This paper analyzes the theoretical and policy aspects of various possible approaches — multilateral, preferential and others — toward new initiatives for liberalizing trade relations between the developed and the developing countries. The increasing differentiation between the Newly Industrializing Countries (NICs) and the Less Developed Countries (LDCs) suggests that a multidimensional framework, allowing flexibility in dealing with different subsets within the developing countries would be more relevant. The paper analyzes the probable outcomes and constraints of the various trade-liberalizing options with regard to their effects on trade flows, welfare and terms of trade.     

Innovations for reaching the green sustainable development goals –where will they come from?

Reaching the sustainable development goals needs innovations. This paper addresses the dynamics of green energy and resource efficiency innovations, and looks at the positioning of countries from the North and emerging economies. We use indicators for both general innovation capabilities and specific green technology capabilities. Data on general innovation capabilities reveal that the traditional OECD countries, by and large, still possess advantages compared to Newly Industrializing Countries (NICs). Literature and Patent indicators reveal that the innovation dynamics are particularly high for publications. Literature and exports indicators reveal that the South has been catching up substantially. With regard to patents, some countries of the South are catching up, but the North is still cleary leading. A detailed analysis of co-patenting and country-to-country trade data reveals a more differentiated picture: Leading countries from Europe such as Germany as still specializing on serving the markets of traditional OECD countries. Japan and Korea are very reluctant with regard to co-patenting, but specialize in exporting to China. South-South trade in green technologies is the fastest growing market segment. However, countries of the South are pursuing a differentiated strategy: Mexico is highly integrated into the US economy. Singapore and South Korea have been catching up and provide technologies especially for China. China itself is following a double strategy, with absorbing technology from the North in order to compete on markets of the North on the one hand, but increasingly specializing on becoming lead supplier for countries of the South on the other hand. The other technology providers from the South are mainly specializing in supplying other countries from the South. Thus, a segmentation of the market is likely, with green sustainability innovations in the South more likely originating in the South as well, and China being an important country to adapt knowledge from the North to the needs of the South.     

Trade and convergence between rich and developing countries: Some empirical evidence on macrodeterminants of specialization

Trade and Convergence Between Rich and Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence on Macrodeterminants of Specialization. —A case study is proposed considering trade of Italy with many groups of partners belonging to the EU, to the G-7, to the newly industrializing countries and to the newly exporting countries. Using panel estimation data, they reach the conclusion that standard of living convergence does not favour intraindustry trade among rich countries but it is IIT-biased when considering emerging countries like the NICs. A much more important role is played by country-relative size and price differentials and/or vertical differentiation.     

中日“萧条经济”比较分析

根据《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大词典》对于“萧条”的定义,对照中,日两国的实际经济状况,我们可以认定目前中国和日本均处于“萧条经济”之中,但却分属两种不同类型,对两种萧条经济的特征,表现形式和原因等进行比较分析可以发现,货币政策对于二者的作用均不明显,但原因却有不同,目前,积极的财政政策应是两国共同的主要政策方向,同时,由于体制性因素是二者萧根本原因,故而作者主张进行结构调整。     

Development assistance: Trade versus aid and the relative performance of industrial countries

Given that both theory and empirical analyses show that foreign trade and aid have similar effects on the development process, this study develops a methodology for assessing the joint (aid plus trade) contribution of industrial countries. The results show that countries like Sweden, Norway and Denmark, which are generally regarded as having liberal aid policies, perform below average when the combined effects of aid and trade are considered while the United Kingdom, Netherland and Belgium emerge as making maximum contributions to development. In addition, the trade practices of the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany largely offset these countries relatively poor aid record. The trade and aid contribution of the USSR and other socialist countries of Europe are also shown to fall far below that of the poorest performing DAC members. If the socialist countries matched average DAC performance measures their imports from developing countries would increase by $7 billion and their aid flows would be $3.1 billion higher. Finally, this study calls into question the rationale for uniform aid targets which do not account for the donor's differential trade contribution to the development effort.     

The Surge of Asian NIC Investment into Indonesia 1

Since 1987 a dramatic increase in both domestic and foreign investment in Indonesia, most of it in export-oriented activities, has occurred in response to improvements in a previously unattractive investment climate and in the country's trade regime. Most striking has been the rise in investment by Asia's four ‘newly-industrialising countries’ (NICs): Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. This paper analyses the factors contributing to this increase and the investment patterns of the four countries. It then focuses on investment in the manufacturing sector, where most of the NIC investments have taken place. The relative importance of each country as a source of investment in individual sectors and industries is examined. The paper concludes that this recent investment surge may yield net social benefits for Indonesia, provided the country continues to adhere to sound macroeconomic and export-promoting policies.     

Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary: Evidence based on vector autoregression with sign restrictions

The purpose of the paper is to examine the impact of real exchange rate changes – real devaluation or real depreciation – on outputs in 16 countries that fall within one of the three groups: Latin American countries, Asian countries, and non-G3 developed countries. For the first time in the contractionary devaluation literature, the analysis is based on a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with sign restrictions method by Uhlig (2005) and Fry and Pagan (2011). The exchange rate shock is identified by imposing restrictions on the signs of impulse responses for a small subset of variables. The findings are as follows: (1) whether output increases after a real devaluation or not has little to do with whether the current account improves or not; (2) Latin American countries are quite homogenous in that the current account generally improves while output decreases after real devaluation; and (3) contractionary devaluation could happen in developed countries as well as in developing countries.     

From protectionism to free trade fever? Recent reforms in developing countries

During the 1980s, increasing numbers of developing countries unilaterally liberalized their trade regimes. This paper presents an overview of this dramatic shift from protectionism toward freer trade. South Asia, Latin America, and East Asia have implemented extensive reforms, yet each region has shown a distinct difference in approach and in the degree of liberalization actually achieved. Latin America stands out as moving sharply toward the level of openness of the East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs). Only in Africa is there little progress toward freer trade.     

Testing for (Efficiency) Catching-up

We used advances in data envelopment analysis (DEA) techniques to examine efficiency scores and investigate the issue of convergence and divergence in a cross-country analysis. Specifically, we used bootstrapping techniques to examine a data set of 52 developed and developing countries. We found that when using the standard DEA model, some of the results were not robust. Further, we broke the sample into groups to examine club convergence. We found that efficiency scores were significantly different between groups and that there was some evidence of convergence of efficiency scores within each group.     

The integrated programme for commodities

The gains from stabilizing commodity prices are likely to be rather small. The distribution of such gains among producers and consumers is uncertain. Compensatory financing is a cheaper and more effective means of dealing with the problem of fluctuating export earnings. The developing countries have some scope for cartel pricing in the tropical beverages, but hardly in any of the other ten ‘core’ commodities. A common fund is not an economically essential feature of the commodity programme, and will not lead to savings in terms of resources. As a group the ‘core’ commodities do not face serious import barriers in the developed countries. In sum, the integrated commodity programme, if implemented, may produce some, but probably rather limited benefits to the developing countries. Some of these could be at the cost of the developed countries, and it is not clear if the whole scheme is a positive-negative-, or zero-sum game.     

The pressure towards protectionism: Is it systematic? A legacy of the recession? The result of policy to promote recovery?

In light of the concern being expressed in many national and international fora about the pressures towards protectionism, this paper explores the reasons for and the possible consequences of this new protectionist trend. The analysis is restricted to macroeconomic issues and policy situations. In answer to the question, ‘Can the current recovery be turned into durable economic growth, more evenly distributed among countries, across productive sectors, and throughout the population?’, the author replies in the affirmative on two conditions: (i) if macroeconomic and structural adjustments are pursued with unmitigated determination where needed; and (ii) if trade, the vital link among our economies, is allowed to revive worldwide. The core of the paper discusses four major unresolved policy issues that have important implications for world trade: (1) internal and external imbalances in the US recovery; (2) trade and underperformance in Europe; (3) the question of Japan and the Pacific NICs; and (4) external debt and adjustment in LDCs.     

A New Approach to Measuring a Multidimensional Productivity Index: An Application for 60 Selected Countries

This study aims to develop a productivity index which takes into account the multidimensional characteristics of productivities. Our multidimensional productivity index (MPI) not only measures individual productivities of economic resources but also evaluate productivity enhancing general capacities of economy. Individual productivity indices such as labor productivity are limited because they do not consider the factors, such as the globalization of economies and the market and institutional variables, that could have profound impacts on productivity. The multidimensional Productivity Index (MPI) is measured for 60 countries including 23 OECD countries and 10 Asian countries. Our methodology employs the concept of technical efficiency that allows us to measure the extent to which institutional and market factors contribute to the economic performance. Our findings indicate that standard productivity measures such as labor productivity may overestimate the overall productivity differences across the economies.     

Effects of regional integration on FDI: An empirical approach

This study uses an augmented gravity model to capture the effect of regional economic integration on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows in the cases of the EU, NAFTA, MERCOSUR, and ASEAN. Three important conclusions emerge: (i) regional integration has had a positive and significant effect on FDI, which is a combination of investment creation and diversion; (ii) investment diversion does occur in a significant number of cases, and hence it is a legitimate cause for concern, especially among developing countries that are not part of a regional grouping with at least one developed country; and (iii) FDI acts as a substitute for trade in a significant number of cases, although in some cases, it complements trade.     

Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from Those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?

While earlier studies focus on credit booms in advanced and emerging market countries, this paper examines the characteristics and determinants of credit booms in developing countries. The results find that credit booms in developing countries are less likely to be associated with systemic banking crises. Rather, they are more likely to be the result of financial deepening than of dangerous buildups of financial risks; the prevention of credit booms in developing countries may thus be associated with higher opportunity costs in terms of foregone growth opportunities. Random effect probit and tobit regressions find some evidence that credit booms are likely to start when the economy is expanding and if the financial sector is larger. Although monetary and fiscal policies do not help in preventing credit booms in developing countries, we find that prudential regulations and supervision can play a much more effective role in preventing “bad” booms, while incurring substantially lower costs. Although “bad” booms are hard to identify ahead of time, the duration and size of booms, as well as the level of credit aggregates, appear to be useful indicators in determining them.