The NAIRU reconsidered: why labour market deregulation may raise unemployment

According to the mainstream theory of equilibrium unemployment, persistent unemployment is caused mainly by ‘excessive’ labour market regulation, whereas aggregate demand, capital accumulation and technological progress have no lasting effect on unemployment. We show that the mainstream non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) model is a special case of a general model of equilibrium unemployment, in which aggregate demand, investment and endogenous technological progress do have long‐term effects. It follows that labour market deregulation does not necessarily reduce steady‐inflation unemployment. Theoretically, if the decline in real wage growth claims owing to deregulation is smaller than the ensuing decline in labour productivity growth and in the warranted real wage growth, then in that case steady‐inflation unemployment may increase. Empirical evidence for 20 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries (1984–1997) indicates that the impact of labour market deregulation on OECD unemployment is zero, and possibly negative (causing a higher rate of unemployment).     

Growth,unemployment and labour market institutions: evidence from a cross-section of EU regions

The responsiveness of unemployment to growth is an issue of ongoing political and academic interest. Economic growth is supposed to be the key to increase labour demand and reduce unemployment. Departing from Okun's law, most research on the unemployment intensity of growth has focused on national disparities and the role of labour market institutions. Empirical evidence at the regional level is scarce. We investigate differences in regional labour market responsiveness and their potential determinants for a cross section of European regions. The data set covers the NUTS 2 regions in the EU15 for the period 1980 to 2002. Following a spatial modelling approach interaction among neighbouring labour markets is taken into account. Our findings point to substantial differences in labour market effects of output growth among European countries and regions. Both national labour market institutions and regional characteristics, such as structural change explain a significant part of these disparities.     

Economic Globalisation and Youth Unemployment – Evidence from African countries

The present study seeks to examine the impact of economic globalisation on youth unemployment for 50 African countries between the period 1994 and 2013. In addition to the economic globalisation measurements, the present study controlled the variables that represent the fluctuations in economic activates; demographic changes, a country’s economic size; the quality of governmental institutions; and labour market regulation. The results of the Arellano-Bond (A-B) GMM technique showed that greater openness to global markets would reflect in a lower youth unemployment rate. Furthermore, the results revealed that rigidity in labour market regulations seemed to reduce the youth unemployment rate. In addition, urbanisation seemed to raise the youth unemployment rate. The findings supported contemporary calls to participate in international trade to facilitate the job creation process.     

Flexibility and Growth

After two decades of theoretical discussion and application of labour policies aimed at flexibility, ever-spreading unemployment in Europe has compelled some official institutions to admit that the 'rigidity' of the labour market does not suffice to account for the different trends in employment displayed by Europe and the United States. In this paper, we focus on the role played by differentials in income growth. After briefly reviewing the explanations of European unemployment based on labour market rigidity and their respective weaknesses, we look at the relationship between growth and employment, concluding that there are grounds for maintaining that the causes of Europe's higher unemployment reside mainly in its lower rate of growth.We therefore investigate the reasons that may be responsible for a more stringent macroeconomic constraint on European growth.We conclude that if a lack of growth is at the root of European unemployment, then merely dismantling labour market institutions, and replacing them with a more flexible system of industrial relations, will not only fail to produce the expected results but may also have negative effects, in both the social and productive structure.     

The effect of shocks to labour market flows on unemployment and participation rates

This article presents an analysis of labour market dynamics, in particular of flows in the labour market and how they interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market performance. Our analysis has two special features. First, apart from the two labour market states – employment and unemployment – we consider a third state – out of the labour force. Second, we study net rather than gross flows, where net refers to the balance of flows between any two labour market states. Distinguishing a third state is important because the labour market flows to and from that state are quantitatively important. Focusing on net flows simplifies the complexity of interactions between the flows and allows us to perform a dynamic analysis in a structural vector-autoregression framework. We find that a shock to the net flow from unemployment to employment drives the unemployment rate and the participation rate in opposite directions while a shock to the net flow from not in the labour force to unemployment drives the rates in the same direction.     

WHAT AFFECTS EFFICIENCY IN LABOUR MARKET MATCHING AT DIFFERENT TERRITORIAL AGGREGATION LEVELS IN POLAND?

We analyse efficiency of a labour market matching process at different levels of territorial aggregation and in different time horizons. We apply a stochastic matching frontier to random, job queuing and stock‐flow models. We use data for Poland, a country with highly regionally diversified unemployment. We find that search and matching mechanisms significantly differ with territorial aggregation. Higher efficiency in small regions results from lower frictions. Larger regions enjoy better structural matching if only labour market participants have time to search. Different policy measures should be designed to improve labour market matching efficiency at different regional levels.     

Unemployment vs. Mismatch of Talents: Reconsidering Unemployment Benefits

We develop an equilibrium search-matching model with risk-neutral agents and two-sided ex-ante heterogeneity. Unemployment insurance has the standard effect of reducing employment, but also helps workers to get a suitable job. We show, through calibrations, how the mere difference on unemployment insurance, when countries experience a common skilled-biased technological shock, may result in differences in unemployment, productivity growth and wage inequality. These results are consistent with the contrasting performance of the labour market in Europe and the United States in the last twenty-five years. The model is used to address some political economy issues.     

On the Benefits From Rigid Labour Markets: Norms, Market Failures, and Social Insurance

The common view that far-reaching labour market deregulation is the only remedy for high European unemployment is too simplistic. First, the evidence suggests that deeply rooted social customs are an important cause of wage rigidity, going beyond the legal constraints emphasised in the political debate. Second, in a second-best setting, a compressed wage structure may generate an efficiency gain. Finally, based on simple plots of the relation between labour market institutions and openness in OECD countries, I conclude that the globalisation of economic activity may lead to increased demand for various labour market rigidities.     

Labour Market Inefficiency and Frictional Unemployment in Australia and its States: A Stochastic Frontier Approach

This paper provides estimates of labour market inefficiency and the frictional unemployment rate for Australia and its States over the period January 1978 to December 1997. These estimates are derived from parametric statistical models of employment growth in which technical inefficiencies are accounted for. The mean estimate of the (technically efficient) frictional unemployment rate for Australia over the sample period is S3 per cent of the labour force. Technical inefficiency in the labour market matching process is significant and contributes around 13 per cent to the mean steady-state (naturaľ) unemployment rate. Investigation of the factors explaining the levels of inefficiency suggests that inefficiencies vary countercyclical, are related to which political party is in power and the time of year and that only Western Australia and Queensland have exhibited a significant decline in inefficiency over the period.     

International fragmentation: Boon or bane for domestic employment?

In this paper, we introduce the fairness approach to efficiency wages into a standard model of international fragmentation. This gives us a theoretical framework in which wage inequality and unemployment rates are co-determined and therefore the public concern can be addressed that international fragmentation and outsourcing to low wage countries lead to domestic job-losses. We develop a novel diagrammatic tool to illustrate the main labour market effects of international fragmentation. We also explore how preferences for fair wages and the size of unemployment benefits govern the employment effects of outsourcing and critically assess the role of political intervention that aims to reduce unemployment benefits under internationally fragmented production.     

Economic reforms and labour markets: policy issues and lessons from Chile

Over the last twenty years sweeping reforms have deeply transformed the labour market in Chile. A visible outcome has been the reduction of Chile's rate of unemployment from 'European' to 'US' levels. Even though the political context makes this experiment special, are there economic lessons to be learnt? This paper concentrates on reforms to job security, on the decentralization of the wage bargaining process, and on the reduction in payroll taxes. It concludes that the reduction of payroll taxes (within the context of the social security reform), and the decentralization of bargaining increased labour market flexibility and contributed to the reduction of unemployment. On the other side, the analysis suggests that the reform on job security had no significant effect on the aggregate rate of unemployment.     

The Beveridge curve and labour market dynamics in Turkey

This article investigates the dynamics of unemployment and vacancy rates in Turkey during the period 1951 to 2008 by means of a Beveridge Curve (BC). The time-series analysis of unemployment and vacancies as well as two other relevant labour market variables, real wages and real labour productivity, strongly suggests inefficiency in the Turkish labour market. A stable long-run relationship between unemployment rate and vacancy rate is found for Turkey, that is, the existence of a negatively sloped BC is verified. The estimated Turkish BC reflects the structural problems and lack of flexibility in the labour market. The modified BC with real wages and labour productivity reveals that labour productivity has no significant effect on unemployment rate whereas wages have positive and significant effects on the same variable.     

Modelling labour market dynamics with on-the-job search

A flow model of the Dutch labour market is used to calculate the effects of policy options which aim to enhance employment, especially at the lower end of the labour market. The model distinguishes between good and bad jobs, allows for endogenous wage formation and job creation, and describes the flows between these jobs so that job-to-job mobility and the vacancy chain is made endogenous. In the matching process employed job seekers with bad jobs compete with short-term and long-term unemployed for the filling of vacancies for good jobs. In each period part of the good and bad jobs are destroyed which results in inflow into unemployment. The model explicitly describes the flow of unemployed through the various duration classes of unemployment and it allows for negative duration dependence so that the escape probability from unemployment for long-term unemployed is smaller than for short-term unemployed. The model is used to simulate the effects of external shocks, such as structural productivity shocks. An impulse response analysis using the model is also conducted considering labour market policies which aims especially to enhance employment at the lower end of the labour market. In particular, the effects are analysed of measures subsidising the opening of bad jobs (jobs at the lower end of the labour market) and a rise in the productivity of a bad job as compared to a good job which can be achieved by changes in the tax system.     

Ageing shocks and short-run regional labour market dynamics in a spatial panel VAR approach

Using a flexible spatial panel VAR model for a small-scale labour market system, we investigate the dynamic interdependences between changes in the demographic structure and the labour market performance of a regional economy. With a particular focus on ageing shocks, we describe an increase in the share of elderly in regional population due to exogenous changes in the institutional context, such as pension reforms. The regional labour market implications of an ageing shock are then tested with regard to the effects on employment growth, unemployment and labour participation rate. Our results based on a sample of 71 Scandinavian regions point to negative regional labour market effects of an ageing shock implying a reduction in employment growth and a temporarily declining labour participation rate, while the unemployment rate increases. Importantly, spatial spillovers amplify these negative impacts through a marginalization of macro-regional labour markets. As a robustness check, we reverse the causal ordering and analyze the responses to a positive macroeconomic shock which initially increases employment growth. We find direct and spatially indirect adjustment patterns characterized by a reduction of the unemployment rate, an increase in the labour participation rate and a decrease in the share of elderly in the population.     

Beyond Eurosclerosis

Europe no longer suffers from Eurosclerosis; unemployment, notably long-term unemployment, had decreased substantially for more than a decade. Mobility across labour market states increased in those countries where unemployment has been falling the most. Institutional reforms -- such as declining employment protection for new entrants in the labour market and less generous unemployment benefits -- account for this increase in mobility. Focusing on these reforms, we rationalize why EU workers, including those with permanent contracts, are increasingly unhappy about labour market conditions in spite of the disappearance of mass unemployment in Europe. Due to these perceptions, policy reversals cannot be ruled out. Governments wishing to minimize the risk of going back to Eurosclerosis should move towards flexicurity configurations, compensating workers for higher risks of job loss, and introduce tenure tracks to the labour market, preventing the development of dual labour market structures. This would avoid dissipating the employment gains of the last decade during this recession.
--- Tito Boeri and Pietro Garibaldi     

Does the unemployment invariance hypothesis hold for Romania?

This article questions whether the unemployment invariance hypothesis of Layard et al. (2005), which states that movements in labour force do not significantly affect unemployment rates, holds true for Romania. Using quarterly labour force data for the 1996–2012 period, we explore the time-series properties of the two variables. We find that unemployment rates and participation rates have unit roots, and that they are not cointegrated, meaning that no significant long-term relationship exists between them. The analysis carried out on the first differences of unemployment rates and participation rates shows discouraged and added worker effects for Romania’s female labour force. This conclusion diverges from findings that point out to a stable, long-term relationship between unemployment and participation in several developed countries (Japan, Sweden, USA) and shows that Romanian labour market is highly adaptive, where changes in labour force participation do not lead to increases in unemployment. This finding can help model the influence of adverse developments such as ageing and emigration, and show their true impact beyond demographic doom scenarios. It also points out the role played by labour demand in shaping the evolution of the Romanian labour market.     

Measuring the cyclicality of labour market flows using individual transitions

We investigate whether the choice of a business cycle measure affects estimates of the cyclicality of labour market flows. We exploit precise administrative data on individual labour market transitions and study the association of alternative business cycle measures with individual transitions between employment and unemployment. We find indeed substantial heterogeneities across business cycle indicators that may have affected the results of prior studies on labour market transitions.     

Labour market institutions in open economy: Sectoral reallocations,aggregate adjustments,and spillovers

We introduce frictional unemployment in a multiworker heterogeneous firm model with a dynamic matching process, one‐ and two‐sector equilibria, and international markets. A change in labour market policies transforms the share of exporters and affects average productivity. The closure of equilibrium with or without sectoral arbitrage plays an important role in generating macro‐level outcomes for employment subsidies. Unemployment benefits, on the other hand, make unemployment and openness rise, independently of sectoral reallocations. We also find that simultaneous implementation of labour market policies remove potential gain in the trade share, and, when it comes to unemployment benefits, may even be detrimental.     

Unemployment durations of job losers in a labour market in transition

Slovakia is one of the Central European countries in transformation from a centralized command system to a decentralized market economy. This paper studies the labour market position of Slovak job losers. Using data from labour force surveys we analyse exit rates out of unemployment. We find that male, young, higher educated job losers in districts with low unemployment rates have substantially shorter unemployment durations than their counterparts. There is evidence that for some job losers it is very hard to find a new job.     

Profit Sharing,Credit Market Imperfections and Equilibrium Unemployment*

We investigate the interaction between labour and credit market imperfections for equilibrium unemployment in the presence of profit sharing. In a partial equilibrium with exogenous outside options, increased bargaining power of banks has adverse employment effects. In a general equilibrium with endogenous outside options, this relationship is frequently reversed; reduced credit market imperfections increase equilibrium unemployment if the labour market imperfections—measured by the bargaining power of trade unions—are sufficiently strong and the benefit–replacement ratio is sufficiently high. Finally, we show that higher bankruptcy risks increase equilibrium unemployment under similar conditions.