支付清算系统业务连续性管理机制研究

本文将在阐述支付清算系统运维风险基本范畴、内容和防范要求的基础上，重点研究和探讨建立支付清算系统业务连续性管理（BCM）机制和制订业务连续性计划（BCP）的内容、具体实施步骤和主要技术要点，包括业务连续性计划和技术层面的灾难恢复（DR）等，并简要介绍海内外支付清算系统BCM工作实践及其启示，为我国支付清算体系BCM机制的建立与完善提供参考.     

如何保障保险业务的连续性

当企业面对突发事件和对正常业务造成巨大影响时，应急预案的启动事关重大。业务连续性管理（BCM）旨在关注企业突发事件后的业务恢复能力，包括如何应对灾难事件以及在事件后如何恢复正常运转。其总体目标是提高组织的风险防范与抗击能力，有效响应非计划的业务破坏并降低不良影响。经研究机构调查，未进行业务连续性管理体系建设的企业，有2／5会在遭受重大灾难事件后很快倒闭，还有1／3会在两年内无法继续运营。     

灾难恢复：业务永续保障

业务持续管理（BCM）是保障企业的业务得以持续运行的关键。尤其是金融业和电信业，对于业务持续运行的要求更是超过了其他任何行业，因此，构建自己企业的BCM体系就成为这两个行业的当务之急。在BCM的大框架之下，其底层就是灾备中心的建设和管理，这是支撑业务持续运作、规避自然和人为灾难所导致的风险的基础。     

银行系统灾难恢复中心设计方案

银行业务系统的数据处理正逐步由分布式处理模式向集中式处理模式转变，这种集中式数据处理模式为银行的发展注入了新的活力。当银行越来越依赖于数据处理来办理业务，并由此来保证其同业竞争力的时候，数据处理的高可靠性和高可用性就尤为关键。一旦发生灾难，造成银行计算机系统长期停止，将直接导致巨大的资产损失，更为重要的是，银行将失去客户的信任以及银行赖以生存发展的市场。灾难恢复中心就是针对银行数据处理的完整性和业务连续性需求而建立的一个综合解决方案。一、灾难及其对银行的危害1.灾难灾难发生的原因很多，包括自然和人…     

银行如何开展灾难恢复应急演练

目前，越来越多的企业开始重视灾备工程建设，以确保企业的业务连续性运作。对信息系统高度依赖的银行业更是如此，国内的许多银行相继已完成了灾备工程建设。为了保证银行能够在灾难发生时有条不紊地实施灾难恢复，保证业务的连续性运行，就必须加强灾难备份与恢复的培训，其中最有效的手段就是进行灾难恢复应急演练。[第一段]     

私有云大展拳脚 众厂商竞相角逐

2009年，数据存储、数据备份和恢复、灾难恢复在中小企业市场发生了许多变化。众多厂商对产品进行调整，以适应中小企业的具体需要。     

发展之道安全先行--中国进出口银行异地灾难备份项目的实施

国家有关部门及行业相关政策陆续出台，为推动金融机构灾难备份建设创造了积极的宏观环境。2002年，人民银行《关于加强银行数据集中安全工作的指导意见》中就明确指出，“为保障银行业务的连续性，确保银行稳健运行，实施数据集中的银行必须建立相应的灾难备份中心”。2005年，国信办发表《重要信息系统灾难恢复规划指南》（简称《指南》），为灾难恢复工作提供了操作性较强的参考依据。据悉，国信办还将参照《指南》的执行情况出台有关灾难恢复的国家标准。     

金融业信息系统的灾难备份与恢复

2008年2月,中国人民银行发布了《银行业信息系统灾难恢复管理规范》,对灾难恢复的组织机构设立和职责、灾难恢复需求分析、灾难恢复策略的制订、灾难备份中心的建设、灾难备份中心的运行和维护、灾难恢复预案的制订演练和管理、应急响应和灾难恢复与监督管理等方面做了详细规定,形成实际工作中的指导。     

IBM全球服务部论道“首届灾难恢复高层论坛”

日前，IBM全球服务部出席了在广东省地税局南海数据处理中心召开的“首届灾难恢复高层论坛”。此次论坛上，IBM深入阐述了其灾难备份的理念，展示了最新的灾难备份解决方案。IBM全球服务部指出，业务连续性计划的精髓必须是指导性的、明确的、易懂的、具有适应性的、经过测试与维护的。据IBM中国有限公司灾难备份解决方案经理赵庆介绍，IBM公司是全球最大的灾难恢复服务商，拥有遍布全球76个国家的120个灾难备份中心。目前IBM在全球拥有超过1．5万份灾难备份合约，平均每年要进行超过4．5万次灾难恢复演练。     

银行计算机灾难备份系统研究

本文主要分析了银行计算机应用数据的类型,并介绍了灾难备份系统的架构,灾难恢复的必要条件与过程,数据备份技术,国内外金融业建立灾难备份系统的现状等。     

Stock price default boundary: A Black-Cox model approach

In this paper, we incorporate the information from Credit Default Swap (CDS) and options markets to extract the relative default boundary at the stock price level. We propose a reduced-form Black-Cox Model (BCM) with a Deterministic Linear Function (DLF) to extract default information from the CDS and options market to gauge the default boundaries. Using S&P 500 index, CDS, and options data from 2002 to 2017, we extract default boundaries for S&P 500 index via the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). Our results suggest that our method performs well when compared with the historical mean relative default boundaries and the recent Unit Recovery Claim (URC)-based default boundaries.     

The risk management of nothing

This essay challenges core elements of enterprise risk management (ERM) and suggests that an impoverished conception of ‘risk appetite’ is part of the ‘intellectual failure’ at the heart of the financial crisis. Regulators, senior management and boards must understand risk appetite more as the consequence of a dynamic organizational process involving values as much as metrics. In addition, ERM has operated as a boundary preserving model of risk management subject to the ‘logic of the audit trail’, rather than a boundary challenging practice which confronts and addresses the complex realities of interconnectedness. The security provided by ERM is at best limited to certain states of the world and at worst it is illusory – the risk management of nothing. In contrast, Business continuity management (BCM) may provide clues about how risk management might be reconstructed.     

Covariance of discounted compound renewal sums with a stochastic interest rate

Formulas have been obtained for the moments of the discounted aggregate claims process, for a constant instantaneous interest rate, and for a claims number process that is an ordinary or a delayed renewal process. In this paper, we present explicit formulas on the first two moments and the joint moment of this risk process, for a non-trivial extension to a stochastic instantaneous interest rate. Examples are given for Erlang claims number processes, and for the Ho–Lee–Merton and the Vasicek interest rate models.     

Entry into Banking Markets and the Early-Mover Advantage

Using a sample for 1972–2002 with over 10,000 bank entries into local markets, we find a market share advantage for early entrants. In particular, the earlier a bank enters, the larger is its market share relative to other banks, controlling for firm, market, and time effects, with a market share advantage for early movers between 1 and 15 percentage points, depending on the order of entry. The strongest early-mover advantage is for banks that were in our sample in 1972 and survive into the 1990s. Moreover, early entrants appear to have such hold in the market by strategically investing in larger branch networks. Even controlling for the potential survivorship bias, we find that a bank's share decreases by 0.1 percentage points for a change in its order of entry from n th to ( n + 1)th. High growth markets show a smaller difference between late and early movers, consistent with a larger fraction of consumers yet to be locked in with a bank in these markets.     

Is There a January Effect in Corporate Bond and Paper Returns?

This paper examines the question of seasonality in corporate bond and commercial paper returns by testing specifically for a January effect. Complete data covering a 131-year period for both series, as well as term premiums, are analyzed using a procedure that provides consistent estimates of the variance-covariance matrix. The results suggest that a January effect does exist for both assets for the entire period; however, closer examination reveals a strong January effect for the pre-1915 period but a dampening thereafter. We conclude that precise results depend primarily upon the time period chosen and the debt instrument examined. Tests involving the inflation rate strengthen the case for a January seasonal.     

Academic Dishonesty: An Exploratory Study Examining Whether Insurance Students Are Different From Other College Students

This exploratory study compares academic dishonesty scores for insurance students in one insurance program to those for other college students using survey data from business and nonbusiness students at two universities. Academic dishonesty was measured using a modified version of a scale developed by McCabe and Trevino , with a higher score indicating greater academic dishonesty. The average score on total academic dishonesty was significantly higher for insurance students than for other business students and lower, but not significantly so, than the scores for nonbusiness students. Regression analysis indicates that a significant predictor of academic dishonesty for both insurance students and other business students is the perceived relevance of the work to the student's major coursework. There were some differences, however, in the other significant predictors for insurance students versus other business students. Specifically, year in school was significant only for insurance majors, while membership in a Greek social organization and a belief that there was a low risk of getting caught were significant only for other business majors. Furthermore, the significant predictors of academic dishonesty were different for insurance students and nonbusiness students. Overall, the results indicate that insurance students are more likely to engage in academically dishonest behavior than other business students, and the motivation for academic dishonesty differs for insurance students and other students (both nonbusiness and other business). This suggests a need for insurance educators to address academic dishonesty using an approach that is somewhat different than that used for other students.     

Minimizing the Risk of a Financial Product Using a Put Option

In this article, we elaborate a method for determining the optimal strike price for a put option, used to hedge a position in a financial product such as a basket of shares and a bond. This strike price is optimal in the sense that it minimizes, for a given budget, a class of risk measures satisfying certain properties. Formulas are derived for one single underlying as well as for a weighted sum of underlyings. For the latter we will consider two cases depending on the dependence structure of the components in this weighted sum. Applications and numerical results are presented.     

Pricing Foreign Exchange Options Under Intervention by Absorption Modeling

We consider option pricing for a foreign exchange (FX) rate where interventions by an authority may take place when the rate approaches to a certain level at the down side. We formulate the forward FX model by a diffusion process which is stopped by a hitting time of an absorption boundary. Moreover, for a deterministic volatility case with a moving absorption whose level is described by an ordinary differential equation, we obtain closed-form formulas for prices of a European put option and a digital option, and Greeks of the put option. Furthermore, we show an extension of the pricing formula to the case where the intervention level is unknown. In numerical examples, we show option prices for different strikes for the absorption model and the extended model. We compare the model prices with the market prices for EURCHF options traded before January 2015 with the absorption model, and also show experiments of the extended model as an application to the pricing under uncertain views on the intervention.     

The effectiveness of the auditor's going-concern evaluation as an external governance mechanism: Evidence from loan defaults

When there is significant doubt about a firm's ability to continue as a going concern, professional standards require independent auditors to disclose the uncertainty in their report. This study assesses the influence of the independent auditor's going-concern evaluation by examining default following the release of the auditor's report. We use a proprietary sample maintained by the Portuguese Central Bank on 12,199 audit reports relating to approximately 2000 firms that are liable by law to have their accounts audited on an annual basis. Empirical estimation of a logit model controlling for accounting cash- flow-related and nonaccounting variables shows that the likelihood of default for firms that received going concern opinion is 2.792 times that of firms that received a clean opinion. Likelihood ratio tests for omitted variable also confirm the incremental predictive ability of going-concern opinion over and above accounting and nonaccounting variables for the estimation and hold-out samples. In the nondefaulting group, the average default rate is 6.05%, in the defaulting group it is 17.78%. The default rate for firms in the nondefaulting group that received a going-concern opinion is 9.92% and for firms that received a clean opinion it is 5.96%. In the defaulting group, the rate for firms that received a going-concern opinion is 35.49% and for firms that received a clean opinion it is 16.96%. Checks for robustness across different asset classes, age, industries, and regions indicate that firms that receive a going-concern opinion on average default more than those that receive a clean opinion.     

Global Banks,Financial Shocks,and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model

This paper estimates a two‐country model with a global bank, using U.S. and euro area (EA) data. Empirically, a model version with a bank capital requirement outperforms a structure without such a constraint. A loan loss originating in one country triggers a global output reduction. Banking shocks matter more for EA macro variables than for U.S. real activity. Banking shocks account for about 2–5% of the unconditional variance of U.S. GDP and for 3–14% of the variance of EA GDP. During the 2007–09 recession, banking shocks accounted for about 15% of the fall in U.S. and EA GDP, and for more than a third of the fall in EA investment and employment.