Effects of alternative elicitation formats in discrete choice experiments*

An elicitation format prevalently applied in discrete choice experiments (DCE) is to offer each respondent a sequence of choice tasks containing more than two choice options. However, empirical evidence indicates that repeated choice tasks influence choice outcomes through order effects. The study reported in this article employs a split sample approach based on field surveys to expand the research on effects of repeated‐binary DCE elicitation formats. A single‐binary elicitation format is used as the baseline. Our results indicate that choice outcomes may vary across the single‐binary and repeated‐binary elicitation formats. The choice between the two elicitation formats may imply a trade‐off between decreased choice precision in the single‐binary and order effects that may be explained by strategic misrepresentation of preferences, cost uncertainty effects and reference effects in the repeated‐binary elicitation format.     

Using virtual environments and agent models in multi-criteria decision-making

Decision-making is often a complex task. There may be multiple criteria to be satisfied. The consequences of the available options will have different spatial and temporal distributions affecting different population groups and different generations. Decisions are also frequently made in a social context where perceptions can be as important as facts. In this complex environment, research into decision-making has two aspects: (a) understanding the decision process and (b) assisting the decision process. This paper is based on the premise that these are closely linked and that tools are possible which both help us to understand and provide support to decision-makers. A frequently requirement is determination of the trade-offs involved in complex decision situations. These are difficult to establish. Common approaches have used both stated preference and revealed preference techniques. The latter provides a better reflection of real decisions, primarily in market conditions, but does not have the level of experimental control available in hypothetical choice situations. Experimental economics has recently emerged to try to bridge this gap by providing for control of variables within a decision context made real by salient inducements. After review of these options, and the associated literature, we propose a series of linked developments in visualisation and modelling which will support: definition of non-dominated choice sets; interactive choice experiments which encompass spatial and temporal disaggregation; agent-based models to provide social context; and, visualisation to provide a greater sense of immersion in the decision context supported by more intuitive information. We have begun the integration of the necessary software into a virtual decision environment but this paper is focused on conceptual development.     

An Empirical Investigation into the Excessive-Choice Effect

Recent marketing and psychological studies have shown that more choice does not always benefit consumers. This excessive-choice effect (ECE) is examined empirically using food items in four experiments. The first experiment investigates whether people would voluntarily reduce their choice-set size. The second seeks to replicate previous experimental results. The third and fourth experiments employ nonhypothetical Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) soda auctions and hypothetical ground beef choice experiments to further detect the prevalence of the ECE in alternative settings and explore the role of personality in decision tasks. Results suggest the ECE exists, but is less prevalent than previous studies suggest.     

Price-Predicting Ability of Farm Managers: Empirical Findings with Flower Producers in the Netherlands

Differences in income among horticultural growers producing under similar conditions are known to be substantial. Production policy, including cultivar choice, plays an important role. Both price variation over time and price differences among cultivars provide valuable management information to growers to adapt their production policy. This study focuses on price-predicting skills of specialized chrysanthemum growers. The study, based on a survey among 26 participants, shows that growers who predict absolute prices well for one period do not have a higher chance of predicting well for other periods. With respect to predicting relative price positions (relative to other cultivars or other firms), evidence is found, however, that this is a skill, especially for estimating the relative market position. Also, evidence is provided that price differences among cultivars are nonrandom in time, and it is concluded that growers could adapt their production planning and cultivar choice to benefit from expected price variations.     

Adoption of climate‐smart practices and its impact on farm performance and risk exposure among smallholder farmers in Ghana

Increased climate variability during the last four decades has made the agricultural environment in many developing countries more uncertain, resulting in increasing exposure to risk when producing crops. In this study, we use recent farm‐level data from Ghana to examine the drivers of individual and joint adoption of crop choice and soil and water conservation practices, and how adoption of these practices impacts on farm performance (crop revenue) and exposure to risks (skewness of crop yield). We employ a multinomial endogenous switching regression model to account for selectivity bias due to both observable and unobservable factors. The empirical results reveal that farmers’ adoption of crop choice and soil and water conservation leads to higher crop revenues and reduced riskiness in crop production, with the largest impact on crop revenues coming from joint adoption. The findings also show that education of the household head, access to extension and weather information influence the likelihood of adopting these practices. Thus, enhancing extension services and access to climate information and irrigation can reduce gaps in adoption of soil and water conservation and crop choice, considered as climate‐smart practices that will eventually improve crop revenues and reduce farmers’ exposure to climate‐related production risks.     

Differences in Consumer Abstraction Levels as a Function of Risk Perception

This study investigates factors affecting consumer purchase choice (cognitive structures) in two foods with different perceived risk levels. Means‐end chain methodology is used to test for differences in the degrees of abstraction and complexity in the purchase decision process for each product. The results reveal significant differences, with more food safety issues coming into play in the case of the product associated with higher perceived risk in the past. This might suggest a non‐temporal effect on consumers’ level of risk perception in food products, with important implications for crisis management. Furthermore, logit models estimated to investigate the health impact of foods show that age and income have played a role in turning this credence attribute into a key element of consumer choice.     

Will the application of spatial multi criteria evaluation technique enhance the quality of decision-making to resolve boundary conflicts in the Philippines?

Systematic studies that evaluate the quality of decision-making processes are relatively rare. Using the literature on decision quality, this research develops a framework to assess the quality of decision-making processes for resolving boundary conflicts in the Philippines. The evaluation framework breaks down the decision-making process into three components (the decision procedure, the decision method, and the decision unit) and is applied to two ex-post (one resolved and one unresolved) and one ex-ante cases. The evaluation results from the resolved and the unresolved cases show that the choice of decision method plays a minor role in resolving boundary conflicts whereas the choice of decision procedure is more influential. In the end, a decision unit can choose a simple method to resolve the conflict. The ex-ante case presents a follow-up intended to resolve the unresolved case for a changing decision-making process in which the associated decision unit plans to apply the spatial multi criteria evaluation (SMCE) tool as a decision method. The evaluation results from the ex-ante case confirm that the SMCE has the potential to enhance the decision quality because: a) it provides high quality as a decision method in this changing process, and b) the weaknesses associated with the decision unit and the decision procedure of the unresolved case were found to be eliminated in this process.     

Complexity in choice experiments: choice of the status quo alternative and implications for welfare measurement*

We examine the propensity of respondents to choose the status quo (SQ) or current situation alternative as a function of complexity in two separate state‐of‐the‐world choice experiments. Complexity in each choice set was characterized as the number of single and multiple changes in levels of attributes from the current situation and the order of the choice task in the sequence of multiple tasks provided to respondents. We show that increasing complexity leads to increased choice of the SQ and that a respondent’s age and level of education also influenced this choice. We outline the effects of the alternate approaches for incorporating the SQ into welfare measurement. These findings have implications for the design of stated preference experiments, examining passive use values and for empirical analysis leading to welfare measurement.     

THE NATIONAL INTEREST,WESTMINSTER, AND PUBLIC CHOICE*

There has been increasing scrutiny of government policy decisions and advice in recent years. The supremacy of the national interest has been questioned and self interest theories explored. Administrative systems have been reformed, and the role of the Westminster model of government decision-making endlessly reviewed. Increased interest by economists in the policy process has created a new subject area in economics, namely, public choice theory. It places greater emphasis on individual choice and hence on the way political institutions meet society's needs. It provides a suitable framework for explaining political decision making and administrative processes. In this Address, New Zealand agricultural policies and processes in the last two decades are explored from this viewpoint and the applicability of the theory assessed.     

APPLICATIONS OF GAME THEORY MODELS IN AGRICULTURE*

Due to the time lag between investment and payoff, the price-taking nature of agriculture, stochastic weather variables and other factors, the uncertainty faced by decision makers in agriculture is greater than and different from that confronting managers of most other sectors of economy. In this paper, game theory models have been applied to the problem of decision making under uncertainty in agriculture. The authors examine and compare the pros and cons of the four conventional theories of choice in decision making in agriculture. The four theories are: (a) Wald's maximin criterion, (b) Laplace's principle of “insufficient reason”, (c) Hurwicz's “optimism-pessimism” criterion and (d) Savage's “regret” criterion. In this study, applications have been made to the choice of type of farming, optimum dosage of fertiliser and manure and the most appropriate time of selling agricultural produce. The authors propose an additional theory of choice—the criterion of “benefit”—which seems more appropriate than the conventional theories under many situations.     

Scale of harvesting by non-industrial private forest landowners

We examine the intensity of harvesting decision by non-industrial landowners at the lowest price offer they deem acceptable, using a multiple bounded discrete choice stated preference approach that draws upon and connects two subfields of forestry, one identifying characteristics of landowners important to past harvesting or reforestation decisions, and another proposing how landowners evaluate price offers for forest harvesting decisions. Variables important to harvest intensity choices when the landowners find an acceptable price have only been considered for those landowners who actually have participated in harvesting markets, whereas here we examine the behavior of these individuals as well as those who are on the margin (i.e., have not harvested at prevailing current or past market prices). We show that harvest intensity depends critically on the extent of urbanization, indicated by the presence of structures on a parcel as well as forested tract size, along with landowner characteristics such as absenteeism and length of ownership. The results are useful for understanding the timber management behavior for a majority of landowners who may not harvest at prevailing prices, but may participate should prices reach a level acceptable to them, where this level is determined by individual preferences for standing timber resources.     

Modeling farmers’ decisions on tea varieties in Vietnam: a multinomial logit analysis

This article analyzes households’ choice on tea varieties in Vietnam by using a multinomial logit model. The modeling takes into account the issue of unobserved individual heterogeneity and the endogeneity of some explanatory variables (use of chemical and organic fertilizers). The results show that important factors influencing the decision to adopt one type of tea varieties include income, age, household size, farming contract, and use of organic fertilizers, but also membership of professional associations such as the Tea Association and the Farmers Union.     

Chile's agricultural diversification

Chile's fruit sector, both in production and exports, has grown significantly since 1974. At that time, Chile introduced structural reforms in its economy which assured that market principles would operate regarding land ownership. Also, the government began a ‘hands-off’ policy which basically allowed free-market principles to prevail. As a result of these conditions operating in the economy, Chile's agricultural sector diversified from producing largely annual crops and wool to also producing a significant amount of commercial fruit crops. A second round of diversification is currently underway within the fruit industry where pears and peaches are being produced and exported in addition to apples and table grapes. In this paper we derive decision criteria when aggregate performance is evaluated from the perspective of maximizing a risk-averse utility function. Empirical evidence on Chilean fruit exports indicates that, on an aggregate level, Chilean fruit exporters are following the path of utility maximization and validates the sequence by which Chilean producers introduced nontraditional crops over time. While on an individual level there may be complex factors and constraints involved in the planting decisions, the results of this study seem to indicate that the sum of producer behavior satisfies the conditions required for maximizing a risk-averse utility function.     

A Sequential Choice Alternative to the Travel Cost Model

The travel cost model is the standard model used in the recreation demand area. This model assumes that the decision on the number of trips in a given time period (a season, for example) to a particular site is determined at the beginning of the time period. For certain types of recreation activity, it may be better to model the decision to take a trip to a given site as a function of the outcome of previous trips and the realization of random variables on previous trips (as well as travel and time costs). The spatial choice behavior itself may be sequential in nature rather than continuous. In this paper, a model is developed which specifies the choice of a discrete number of sequentially chosen trips to a given site as a function of site-specific variables and values realized on previous trips. This model improves upon the existing travel cost model by specifying discrete integer values for the number of trips, developing an explicit relationship between trips taken and the number of days spent on each trip, and allowing intra-seasonal effects to determine the probability of taking an additional trip. A comparison is made between the traditional travel cost model estimates of consumer's surplus and the estimates from this sequential discrete choice model.     

Foreign Direct Investment and the Performance of European Agribusiness Firms

This article analyses the relationship between foreign direct investment and the performance of European agribusiness firms. Motivated by the role of heterogeneous firms in new trade theory and using a firm‐level dataset, statistical analyses identify key differences between firms investing in foreign economies and those that do not. A binary choice model quantifies the relationship between firm characteristics and the decision to engage in foreign investment. Size and – less strongly – productivity are greater for multinationals relative to domestic firms. Furthermore, European multinationals are characterised by a larger debt to equity ratio and show lower labour and input costs.     

Analyzing Foreign Direct Investment Decisions by Food and everage Firms: An Empirical Model of Transaction Theory

Global trends in agricultural marketing include increased trade in processed foods, less intra-industry trade, slower growth in trade of bulk commodities, and intensified adoption of processing and biological technologies. These trends temporally lead to increased investments by firms in intangible assets and tighter vertical controls. As a result of these trends, in the context of international trade governance, there is invigorated interest in the causal factors related to the boundaries of firms.
Using transaction economic theory and an empirical model, this research analyzes the determinants of international trade strategy in the food and beverage industry. The quantitative analysis involves a nested logit model of a sample of domestic and multinational firms in SIC 20. The nested logit employed is based on a two-level nest of sequential dichotomous choice decisions regarding exporting and foreign direct investment (FDI). The first sequential decision is the boundary choice between remaining domestic or engaging in international trade of some form. The second sequential decision involves exporting or FDI. Model regressors include the size of the firm, level of product differentiation, intangible assets, research and development expenditures, long-term debt, capital intensity, the country of origin and business structure.     

Dynamics of Harvest Subcontracting: The Roles Played by Labour Contractors

A historical perspective of three export agro‐industries in Argentina (lemons, sweet citrus and tobacco) illustrates the range of factors that may foster subcontracting and the choice of subcontracting modalities. The case studies also illustrate that subcontracting is often a fragile strategy that leads to the eventual reabsorption of subcontracted tasks. We argue that the fragility of subcontracting the harvest rests on the inability of producers and labour contractors to negotiate a relationship that favours collaboration and problem solving. This failure is at the root of the high transaction costs of harvest subcontracting that force producers to resort to ancillary investments or sanctions, or to reabsorb some or all of the delegated tasks. A mismatch of resources and technical competence between producers and harvest labour contractors also contributes to inadequate performance of services. It is thus not surprising that harvest labour contractors are not always permanent fixtures; they may appear, disappear and reappear, particularly in fresh fruit export industries.     

RESPONSES TO RISK IN WEED CONTROL DECISIONS UNDER EXPECTED PROFIT MAXIMISATION

Risk is an important characteristic of decisions about weed control in crops. In this paper it is shown that risk can affect weed control decisions even if the objective of the decision maker is to maximise expected profits: that is, even if the decision maker is ‘risk-neutral’ in the usual economic sense. This is shown for two decision frameworks: the optimal rate approach and the economic threshold approach. Empirical results are presented for control of ryegrass in wheat in Western Australia. It is found that, in general, risk reduces the optimal level of herbicide use under expected profit maximisation. Although individual sources of risk have a small impact on the optimal decision rules, combinations of uncertain variables can have a relatively large effect.     

Coping with Crisis Risk in European Agriculture

Coping with Crisis Risk in European Agriculture
This article summarizes the major findings of an international workshop on coping with crisis risk in European agriculture. The workshop took place as part of an EU sixth framework project entitled: Income stabilisation: Design and economic impact of risk management tools for European agriculture. The meeting focused on ex ante crisis risk, which is defined as a foreseeable and predictable risk that potentially hits many farms at the same time. More specifically, the workshop focused on technology risks - such as food safety and livestock epidemic risks - and weather risks. State of the art discussions pointed towards little attention being paid to crisis risk management in EU agriculture and the incompleteness of risk management instruments available. Proposed solutions, although not entirely agreed upon by all workshop participants, envision some form of public–private partnership. For technology risks, which are rather'manageable' by individual farmers, partnerships are recommended to be a mix of regulation, risk mitigation and non-subsidised market instruments with a clear focus on incentives for risk prevention. For weather risks, these partnerships include financial aspects whereby governments offer free cover for the catastrophic part of losses. The Income Stabilisation project will integrate workshop recommendations with wider research project activities and will eventually advise on prospective risk management instruments for various farm types and regions throughout the European Union.     

Nudging farmers in crop choice using price information: Evidence from Ethiopian Commodity Exchange

The lack of reference price information is often regarded as one of the most pervasive aspects of incomplete commodity markets in developing countries. Previous studies on the effects of price information emphasize the market participation and performance of rural households. This paper argues that access to reference price information influences farmers’ crop choice decisions, the most important decision in farming activity. The study exploits the variation in timing and spatial distance of the publicly run Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) price tickers as an indicator for variation in the intensity of access to reference price information among rural villages in Ethiopia. The paper finds that access to price information increases the average farm-gate prices for traded commodities and incentivizes farmers to allocate more land, fertilizer and improved seeds to commodities traded in the ECX. It also nudges farmers to produce more of the traded commodities, increasing the output share of ECX-traded commodities.