Optimal stock trading with personal taxes: Implications for prices and the abnormal January returns

The tax law confers upon the investor a timing option - to realize capital losses and defer capital gains. With the tax rate on long term gains and losses being about half the short term rate, the law provides a second timing option - to realize losses short term and gains long term, if at all. Our theory and simulation over the 1962–1977 period establish that taxable investors should realize long term gains in high variance stocks and repurchase stock in order to realize potential future losses short term. Tax trading does not explain the small-firm anomaly but predicts a seasonal pattern in trading volume which maps into a seasonal pattern in stock prices, the January anomaly, only if investors are irrational or ignorant of the price seasonality.     

Optimal tax-timing and asset allocation when tax rebates on capital losses are limited

This article studies the portfolio problem with realization-based capital gain taxation when limited amounts of losses qualify for tax rebate payments, as is the case under current US tax law. When the tax rate applicable to realized losses exceeds that on realized capital gains, it can be optimal to realize capital gains immediately and pay capital gain taxes to regain the option to use potential future losses against a higher tax rate. This incentive adds an entirely new and as yet unstudied dimension to the portfolio problem. It causes risk averse investors to hold more equity and attain higher welfare levels than is the case when trading under a tax system that seeks to collect the same amount of taxes, but does not allow for tax rebate payments. This is because the benefit to these investors from having their losses subsidized is greater than the suffering from having profits taxed at a higher rate.     

Capital Gains Taxes and Equity Trading: Empirical Evidence

Individual investors have an incentive to defer selling appreciated stock until it qualifies for tax‐favored, long‐term capital gains treatment. Shackelford and Verrecchia [2002] show that these incentives can affect equity trading around public disclosures. This article provides some empirical support for their theory with evidence of price increases and equity constrictions around announcements of quarterly earnings and additions to the S&P 500 index. We find share returns rise and trading volume falls with the incremental taxes saved by deferring the sale of appreciated property. The price increases, however, are temporary, reversing in subsequent trading days. The results are consistent with buyers believing the compensation to sell before long‐term qualification (through higher prices) is less costly than holding an inappropriately weighted portfolio. This finding—that personal capital gains taxes affect equity trading—adds to a growing literature that challenges longstanding assumptions that firm value is independent of shareholders and their taxes.     

Dividends,taxes, and common stock prices: The ex-dividend day behavior of common stock prices before the income tax

This study examines the ex-dividend day behavior of common stock prices before the enactment of the federal income tax. On ex-dividend days during the pre-tax period, stock prices fell, on average, by the full amount of the dividend. The data are consistent with the hypothesis that (i) investors in the pre-tax period value dividends and capital gains as perfect substitutes and (ii) the differential taxation of dividends and capital gains has since caused investors to discount the value of taxable cash dividends in relation to capital gains.     

Capital Gains Tax Overhang and Price Pressure

I study whether the capital gains tax is an impediment to selling by some investors and if so, to what degree associated delayed selling affects stock prices. I find that selling decisions by institutions serving tax‐sensitive clients are sensitive to cumulative capital gains, a pattern not observed for institutions with predominantly tax‐exempt clients. Moreover, tax‐related underselling impacts stock prices during large earnings surprises for stocks held primarily by tax‐sensitive investors. The corresponding price reactions are less negative (more positive) with higher cumulative capital gains. This price pressure pattern is more severe when arbitrage is more costly.     

Tax-Induced Trading: The Effect of the 1986 Tax Reform Act on Stock Market Activity

The end of favorable tax treatment for long-term capital gains caused investors to reassess traditional tax-induced trading strategies. This study compares trading behavior in December 1986 and January 1987 with previous years. Our results indicate that these tax code changes had a powerful effect on trading behavior. Relative trading volume was considerably higher in December 1986 for long-term winners but not significantly lower for long-term losers. Results also indicate altered trading patterns based on short-term gains in December 1986 and for long-term winners in January 1987.     

Capital gains tax,supply‐driven trading and ownership structure: direct evidence of the lock‐in effect

This study investigates the effect of differential capital gains tax rates on investor trading and share prices in a unique market setting that facilitates the resolution of conflicting prior evidence of holding period tax incentives. In particular, we examine whether the concessionary tax treatment of long‐term capital gains increases the supply of shares that qualify for long‐term status, thereby causing downward price pressure. We find evidence of abnormal seller‐initiated trading following the 12‐month anniversary of listing for IPO firms that appreciate in price (‘winners’) and report no such evidence for firms that decline in price (‘losers’). Consistent with the tax concessions being greater for individual than institutional investors, we report that abnormal seller‐initiated trading is mitigated by higher levels of ownership by institutional investors. We also report limited evidence, for winners, of declining share prices upon qualifying for long‐term tax status.     

Dividend and capital gains taxation under incomplete markets

Motivated by the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (JGTRRA) of 2003, the effects of capital income tax cuts are investigated in an economy with heterogeneous households and a representative, mature firm. Dividend tax cuts, contrary to capital gains tax cuts, lead to a decrease in investment and capital. This is because they increase the market value of existing capital and households require a higher return to hold this additional wealth. In line with empirical evidence, the model predicts substantial increases in dividends and stock prices. Overall, the tax cuts lead to a welfare reduction equivalent to a consumption drop of 0.5%.     

Commodity tax straddles and the valuation of domestic futures exchanges: An analysis of the 1981 Economic Recovery Tax Act

The Economic Recovery Tax Act (ERTA) of 1981 substantially altered the taxation of commodity tax straddles. Prior to 1981, commodity tax straddles were actively promoted and used to defer income, to convert ordinary income into capital gains, or to convert short-term into long-term capital gains. ERTA imposed a mark-tomarket rule of account settlement for the taxation of futures transactions. This study examines the impact of ERTA on the futures industry by utilizing futures exchange seat prices for all domestic futures exchanges. Futures exchange seats represent specialized capital assets whose value reflects the discounted present value of expected future economic rents derived from trading activity. The results indicate that ERTA produced a large decrease in the market valuation of futures exchange capital which was not recaptured in the ten months following the announcement.The financial support of the Columbia Futures Center was essential to the research reported here. The authors thank two anonymous reviewers for helpful suggestions, and Matthew Deno, Darrell Petter, and Shan Guo for valuable research assistance.     

The Mode of Acquisition in Takeovers: Taxes and Asymmetric Information

We develop a model in which the mode of acquisition conveys information concerning the value of the bidder. The model incorporates the possibility that offers containing both cash and stock can be made in a setting consistent with the U.S. tax code. We demonstrate that bidders with unfavorable private information about their equity value choose offers containing some stock to avoid the capital gains tax consequences of cash offers. The model yields a number of unique predictions about the construction of acquisition offers. We present evidence consistent with the model.     

Market Valuation of Tax-Timing Options: Evidence from Capital Gains Distributions

We examine a distribution that is taxed as a capital gain rather than as a dividend. Since the distribution induces a realized capital gain while the price change is an unrealized gain, ex‐day return behavior provides evidence of the value of tax‐timing capital gains. We show that investors are compensated 7¢ in unrealized gains for each dollar of realized capital gains, that is, $1 of realized capital gains is equivalent to 93¢ of unrealized gains. An investor with a tax rate on realized gains of 15% has an effective tax rate on unrealized capital gains of 8.6%.     

A股税收客户群效应及除息日税负效应实证研究

本文分析了2002—2007年A股市场的纯现金红利分红数据,检验了这一期间在除息日套利的可能性,证实该期间市场存在除息日股价的税负效应,以及税收客户群效应。说明A股市场不同类的投资者对分红具有不同的偏好,上市公司应制定合适的股利政策以最大化股东财富。早期的关于国内市场的研究得到市场不存在税收客户群效应的结论,前后对比说明随着国内证券市场的发展,投资者更趋于理性。     

European tax systems and the neutrality of corporate financing policy

The different tax systems of European illustrate the variety of ways in which the double taxation of dividends can be reduced. This paper analyses the effect of corporate financing policy under the imputation, dual rate, mixed and classical tax systems, and derives conditions for neutrality of the systems with respect to financing policy-neutrality in the sense that no type of financial policy has favourable tax treatment. The effect of the capital gains tax and heterogenous personal tax rates across individuals are analysed by using a model of stock value. Neutrality depend on the parameters of the tax system and a weighted average of personal tax rates.     

Direct evidence of dividend tax clienteles

The paper is the first to evaluate the dividend tax clientele hypothesis using a data set of all domestic stock portfolios in the market. We find that investment funds that face a higher effective tax rate on dividend income than on capital gains tilt their portfolios away from dividend-paying stocks. These investors consequently earn a dividend yield that is about 35 basis points lower than that of investors who are tax neutral between dividends and capital gains (pension funds, unit-linked insurance, life insurance). Consistent with tax rules and charter provisions, we also find that private corporations prefer growth stocks, that foundations exhibit strong dividend preferences, and that partnerships rarely hold stocks portfolios.     

The capital gain lock-in effect with short sales constraints

This paper develops a post-tax asset pricing model under the assumption that investors cannot defer the taxation of capital gains by costlessly short selling tax exempt perfect substitute securities. Contrary to existing literature, it is demonstrated that trading rules of immediate realization of losses and voluntary deferral of gains may not be optimal. Further, equilibrium prices are shown to be higher for stocks held by investors with large accrued capital gains and lower for stocks held by investors with small accrued capital gains or losses.     

Capital gains tax,managed funds and the value of dividends: The case of New Zealand

The taxation of capital gains for Managed Investment Funds in New Zealand was abolished in October 2007, putting these entities on a similar footing to private investors. Prior to this change most private investors were not taxed on capital gains from investments in New Zealand companies, whereas Managed Funds were taxed on these gains. New Zealand company dividends carry imputation tax credits and thus had a tax advantage for Managed Funds before October 2007. After the change the value of dividends relative to capital gains declined substantially for Managed Funds. The evidence is that the market value of the dividends, particularly for high dividends, also declined substantially subsequent to the tax change.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BEFORE- AND AFTER-TAX YIELDS ON FINANCIAL ASSETS

In this research, the traditional approximation that after-tax yields equal before-tax yields times one minus the tax rate is shown in general to be incorrect. The traditional relationship holds only for one-year assets and perpetuities when a single tax rate applies to both ordinary income and capital gains. For all other multiperiod assets, the correct relationship is much more complex and is a function of the statutory tax rates on ordinary income and capital gains, the holding period, the dividend growth rate for common stocks, and any premium or discount on bonds. The direction of bond price changes is related inversely to the direction of the tax rate changes, but the direction of common stock price changes is related ambiguously to the direction of tax rate changes.     

Volume,volatility and information linkages in the stock and option markets

This paper examines the relationship between option trading activity and stock market volatility. Although the option market is uniquely suited for trading on volatility information, there is little analysis on how trading activity in this market is linked to stock price volatility. The bulk of the discussion tends to focus on whether trading activity in the stock market is informative about stock volatility. To analyze the information in option trading activity for stock market volatility, a sample of 15 stocks with the highest option trading volume is selected. For each stock, it is noted that the trading activities in the put and call option markets have significant explanatory power for stock market volatility. In addition, the results indicate that the call option trading activity has a stronger impact on stock volatility compared with that of the put options. Our results demonstrate that information and sentiment in the option market is useful for the estimation of stock market volatility. Also, the significance of the effects of option trading activity on stock price volatility is observed to be comparable to that of stock market trading activity. Furthermore, the persistence and asymmetric effects in the volatility of some stocks tend to disappear once option trading activity is taken into account.     

Taking stock or cashing in? Shareholder style preferences,premiums and the method of payment

We develop and test hypotheses on the impact of target shareholders' investment style preferences on the method of payment and premiums in acquisitions. Stock offers (unlike cash offers) allow target shareholders to defer capital gains taxes. This deferral value, however, depends on target shareholders' willingness to retain acquirer stock. The empirical findings support our hypotheses. Bid premiums in stock offers are negatively and jointly related to target shareholder tax liabilities and to variables proxying for target shareholder willingness to hold acquirer stock. Moreover, the difference between predicted cash and stock premiums due to these factors significantly explains the method of payment choice.