拉弗曲线与税收行为中的混沌特征

本文研究了税收中拉弗曲线（Laffer curve）隐含的混沌特征。分析表明,在拉弗曲线平滑上升的表面现象背后,隐藏着一种无序的状态或混沌特征,因此,在经济发展、税基扩大的情况下,应慎重提高税率,防止税收的大起大落。     

China and the UK Economy

China's boom has been a major pillar of the global economic recovery from early 2002 onwards. However, earlier this year fears that the economic boom was threatening to run out of control prompted the Chinese authorities to implement a number of targeted measures to try to restrain activity in the most overheated sectors. This article by Simon Knapp discusses both how much the UK has benefited from the China boom and how much it might be affected if the Chinese slowdown now becomes a hard landing. It argues that emerging Asia, Japan and raw materials producers have been the principal beneficiaries of the China boom, while the UK's gains have been small, because exports to the whole of Asia only account for 9% of the total. Equally, looking forward, the UK, and the UK's two major trading partners, the US and Eurozone, would only be relatively lightly affected if Chinese growth decelerated rapidly, as they would be helped by offsets such as lower oil prices and a lower interest rate profile. However, the current evidence suggests that the Chinese economy is slowing down in broadly the way the government wants, with the greatest deceleration in the previously overheated sectors but relatively little impact on the export and consumer sectors. An abrupt halt in bank lending could, however, still pose a significant downside risk.     

Prospects for the UK Economy

The prospects for the UK economy are the brightest for some time. Growth is above trend, inflation is low, and balance-of-payments pressures are benign.     

从供求曲线看互联网经济的发展

互联网正迅猛扩散到经济的各个领域。但互联网经济是“福星”还是“陷阱” ?人们正拭目以待。互联网将以其独特的方式促进全球经济的发展 ,但需要世人以更加理性的视野加以审视。本文从经济学的供求曲线出发 ,探讨了互联网经济的主要特点以及它对世界经济造成的深刻影响。     

The Impact of Interest Rates and The Housing Market on The UK Economy

The Chancellor has asked Professor David Miles to examine the UK market for longer-term fixed rate mortgages. This paper by Adrian Cooper, which is part of a study commissioned by the Miles Review, presents the results of a series of simulations using the OEF Model of the UK economy to investigate the contribution of the housing market to macroeconomic volatility and the implications of changing the structure of mortgage finance from the current variable rate system linked to short-term interest rates to a fixed rate system linked to long rates. The main findings are that the housing market has been a contributor to past volatility in the UK economy, and that moving to a fixed rate structure would reduce the impact of a change in interest rates on key macroeconomic indicators.     

The Impact of Shocks on the UK Economy in and Out of EMU

Entry to EMU at an inappropriate exchange rate could trigger a full-blown business cycle in the UK. Once inside EMU, the UK's response to a number of different economic shocks would change — partly because of the fixed exchange rate, and partly because of the common monetary policy. In particular, when an asymmetric shock occurs — one that hits the UK harder than other Eurozone economies — the UK response is generally likely to be more pronounced inside EMU than outside. We find that that result still applies even in a reformed EMU — one in which the ECB and the labour market are reformed to bring them closer to the Anglo–Saxon model.     

非观测效应和教育收益率

本文运用现代计量方法,在控制了非观测效应的基础上估计了我国1989、1991、1993、1997、2000年的教育收益率,发现：（1）随着改革的深化,教育和劳动市场机制日益发挥重要作用,从1989～2000年,我国的教育收益率迅速提高;（2）非观测效应,以及样本选择偏差和测量误差所引发的内生性问题对结果的影响很大,导致普通最小二乘法低估了我国的教育收益率。     

The Changing Structure of the UK Economy: Implications for the Current Account

In common with other developed countries, the UK has seen the relative importance of the service sector grow, accounting for an ever greater share of employment and output — a trend that has accelerated over recent decades. At the same time, globalisation means that international trade is of increasing importance as a share of UK expenditure. With the traded goods sector dwindling in importance, what are the implications for the current account? This paper examines the changing structure of the UK economy and prospects for the current account. Although the current account is expected to remain in deficit for the foreseeable future, the size of the deficit is likely to remain manageable as growing surpluses from trade in services and investment income offset a widening goods deficit.     

基于菲利普斯曲线的中国经济滞涨风险分析

传统的菲利普斯曲线认为政府治理通货膨胀需要忍受短期的失业率上升和产出下降,本文提出了一种新的菲利普斯曲线运行方式,并结合中国实际情况分析得出中国经济陷入滞涨状态的风险较小。     

多元曲线漂移模型与曲线预测

本文通过观察商业公司的销售曲线、证券市场的价格曲线等曲线族,提炼出多元非参数回归曲线漂移模型。它是一种多元自建模型,其中每一条曲线都可以建立一个多元非参数回归方程,并借助于参数与一条参考曲线联结成一个曲线族。本文研究了如何综合使用多元核函数、投影寻踪回归、交叉核实等方法来拟合这样的曲线族并进行曲线预测。     

开放经济下中国新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线

本文采用广义矩方法估计开放经济下中国新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线，结合中国现实选择工具变量。结果表明，使用混合成本作为通货膨胀的驱动因素在统计和经济意义上具有显著性，影响我国通货膨胀主要是资本成本与进口中间品成本；厂商定价行为既有前瞻性又有后顾性，但前瞻性处于主导地位，且价格具有较强的灵活性。     

The Performance of Some Observed and Unobserved Conditional Invariance Techniques for the Detection of Differential Item Functioning

The current research investigates the performance of some conditional and unconditional invariance measures of differential item functioning (DIF), namely: the log-linear model, the logistic regression model, the signed and the unsigned area, the SOS1 and the SOS3. A simulation study is used to evaluate their ability to detect uniform as well as nondirectional nonuniform DIF under several test conditions. The factors that were subject to experimental manipulation in the simulation study are the size of the DIF, the ability distribution of the focal and the reference group, the sample size, the proportion of DIF items and the length of the test.     

曲线拟合的方法

在科学实验和工程实际应用中,经常需要通过一组测试数据来分析自变量和因变量之间的近似函数关系。这篇文章详细介绍了借助matlab软件来实现曲线拟合的各种方法,使得曲线拟合的计算变得简单。     

对我国房地产业与国民经济投入产出的分析

从我国投入产出的内容与发展,对其进行了结构分析。确定了房地产业在国民经济中比重结果。     

The UK Balance Sheet

With net overseas assets of well over $100bn the UK is now the world's second largest creditor nation after Japan. This has come about because the UK current account benefited from large-scale oil revenues from 1980 onwards, which produced a series of current surpluses. Fortunately the funds were invested overseas at a time of significant recovery in world equity markets. As a result of the increase in its external assets, the UK now receives £5bn p.a. or more from interest, profit and dividend earnings on these assets - a valuable cushion to the run-down in oil revenues.