Are Chinese trade flows different?

We find that Chinese trade flows respond to economic activity and relative prices – as represented by a trade weighted exchange rate – but the relationships are not always precisely or robustly estimated. Chinese exports are generally well-behaved, rising with foreign GDP and decreasing as the Chinese renminbi (RMB) appreciates. However, the estimated income elasticity is sensitive to the treatment of time trends. Estimates of aggregate imports are more problematic. In many cases, Chinese aggregate imports actually rise in response to an RMB depreciation and decline with Chinese GDP. This is true even after accounting for the fact a substantial share of imports are subsequently incorporated into Chinese exports. We find that some of these counter-intuitive results are mitigated when we disaggregate the trade flows by customs type, commodity type, and the type of firm undertaking the transactions. However, for imports, we only obtain more reasonable estimates of elasticities when we allow for different import intensities for different components of aggregate demand (specifically, consumption vs. investment) or when we include a relative productivity variable.     

亚太自贸区法律框架构建路径研究

习近平主席在2014年APEC北京峰会上倡议“启动亚太自贸区建设”,这表明中国愿意引领和推动这项重要工作。面对“一带一路”倡议带动的中国新一轮对外开放以及亚太地区大国之间在经济一体化进程中的激烈博弈,亚太自贸区建设何去何从,是考验中国人智慧和能力的议题。如果选择TPP这一路径,等于将构建亚太自贸区的主导权拱手让给别人;如果与TPP分道扬镳另辟蹊径,会分化亚太地区,进而影响“一带一路”倡议的整体部署。一个务实的选择是以中国目前正在推动的“区域全面经济伙伴关系协定”(RCEP)为基础,结合中国韩国自由贸易协定建立中、日、韩自由贸易区,进而引导亚太自贸区法律制度向TPP等国际高标准靠拢,同时采取开放姿态,允许个别APEC成员暂时不加入亚太自贸区,也允许非APEC国家和地区加入亚太自贸区。     

Resident Networks and Corporate Connections: Evidence from World War II Internment Camps

Using customs and port authority data, we show that firms are significantly more likely to trade with countries that have a large resident population near their firm headquarters, and that these connected trades are their most valuable international trades. Using the formation of World War II Japanese internment camps to isolate exogenous shocks to local ethnic populations, we identify a causal link between local networks and firm trade. Firms are also more likely to acquire target firms, and report increased segment sales, in connected countries. Our results point to a surprisingly large role of immigrants as economic conduits for firms.     

What Drives Consumption Booms?

Consumption booms have been common in both industrial and developingcountries, and several explanations have been offered for theiroccurrence. These include economywide wealth effects associatedwith favorable movements in the terms of trade or euphoric expectationstriggered by macroeconomic reforms, Ricardian effects associatedwith fiscal stabilization, lending booms following financialliberalization, and a variety of distortions in intertemporalrelative prices. Using a large cross-country sample of booms,this article assesses how widely applicable these explanationsare. The key finding is that wealth effects linked to favorablemovements in the terms of trade and anticipated improvementsin macroeconomic performance seem to have been more importantempirically than explanations relying primarily on fiscal phenomenaor distortions in intertemporal relative prices.     

吉林省对朝边贸制约因素及政策建议

在中朝经贸合作中,吉林省凭借与朝接壤的独特地缘优势,发挥着重要作用。虽然吉林省边境贸易发展呈递增态势,但对朝边贸规模远远滞后于辽宁省,一是对朝贸易总额占比,吉林为25-35%,辽宁为65-75%;二是对朝贸易额,2009年（由于国际社会对朝鲜经济制裁,海关未公布2010年以后数据）吉林为7.53亿美元,辽宁为23.11亿美元。调查了解发现,2005年前一般是丹东地区企业落户吉林省各口岸城市设立边贸公司分支机构,而现在多家企业注销本地公司而直接前往丹东地区。本地企业外流,说明本地涉外软环境建设滞后,导致地区经济财政税收均有所损失。为此进行了深入调研,建议吉林省把发展边贸与振兴吉林老工业基地有效地结合,完善政策,加大力度,实现突破,促进我省边境贸易持续快速发展。     

Government spending,the balance of trade and the terms of trade in British history

This paper investigates the relationship between government spending, the balance of trade and the terms of trade using early British data. A large open-economy intertemporal framework, in which Ricardian equivalence holds, predicts a larger effect of temporary government spending changes on the trade deficit than permanent ones. Further, a pure switch between debt and taxes should have no effect on trade flows. The results provide some support for these hypotheses, although they are sensitive to sample period and the method of decomposition of government spending. A negative relationship between government spending and the terms of trade is also found.     

中国-东盟自贸区建成对广西边境贸易的影响分析

2010年1月1日中国-东盟自由贸易区如期建成,中国与东盟老成员正式步入零关税时代。对越边境贸易占广西与东盟双边贸易的60%左右,自贸区零关税的启动,短期内势必削弱边贸的政策优势,但随着越南关税的逐步削减,广西边贸也会迎来巨大的发展机遇。本文结合自贸区的降税安排,从正反两个方面深入分析了自贸区建成对广西边贸造成的消极和积极影响,并提出相关的对策建议。     

Balance of Payments and Related Issues in the Uruguay Round of Trade Negotiations

Little attention has been paid to the balance of payments provisionsof the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), despitethe fact that they directly influence the trade policies ofthe developing countries. This article suggests that there isa need to reconsider these provisions in the context of theongoing Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations. Thearticle traces the historical evolution of GATT practices ontrade restrictions for balance of payments purposes. With thegeneral introduction of more flexible exchange rate arrangements,the original rationale for temporary barriers to safeguard acountry's external financial position appears to have lost itsforce. Recent theoretical and empirical work has demonstratedthat neutral or export promoting trade strategies are more effectivefor development than the import substitution frequently advocatedby economists in the 1950s and 1960s. The current debt problemsof developing countries strengthen the argument for a relativelyopen trade and payments regime to attain balance of paymentsviability. The article suggests that stronger internationaldiscipline over trade restrictions for balance of payments purposeswould contribute to and presuppose other necessary improvementsin the multilateral trading system which are already on theagenda of the Uruguay Round.     

Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization

This article presents estimates of the impact of China's accessionto the World Trade Organization. China is estimated to be thebiggest beneficiary (US$31 billion a year from trade reformsin preparation for accession and additional gains of $10 billiona year from reforms after accession), followed by its majortrading partners that also undertake liberalization, includingthe economies in North America, Western Europe, and Taiwan (China).Accession will boost manufacturing sectors in China, especiallytextiles and apparel, which will benefit directly from the removalof export quotas. Developing economies competing with Chinain third markets may suffer small losses. Accession will haveimportant distributional consequences for China, with the wagesof skilled and unskilled nonfarm workers rising in real termsand relative to those of farm workers. Possible policy changes,including reductions in barriers to labor mobility and improvementsin rural education, could more than offset these negative impactsand facilitate the development of China's economy.     

Spin-offs, Divestitures, and Conglomerate Investment

We examine whether spin-offs or divestitures cause improvementsin conglomerate investment efficiency. At issue are endogeneityof these restructuring decisions and correct measurement ofinvestment efficiency. Endogeneity is a problem because thefactors that induce firms to spin off or divest divisions mayalso improve investment efficiency; measurement error is a problembecause efficiency measures employ Tobin’s q as a noisyproxy for investment opportunities. We find important differencesbetween firms that divest or spin off and a control sample.After accounting for these differences and for measurement errorin q, we find no evidence of improvements in investment efficiency.(JEL G31, G34)     

西部开发:开创边贸易区引资新局面

<正> 自90年代初沿边全面开放、边境贸易蓬勃发展以来,我国边境地区逐步形成发展起来了边境贸易区。边境贸易区作为一种特殊关税区,经过多年的探索调整,进入到平稳运营、趋向规范管理的阶段。随着西部大开发战略的展开,边境贸易区进入扩大向西开放、引进外资的新阶段。 从边民互市扩展到全方位对外开放 1983年,国家正式发布边境小额贸易管理法规,规定边境城镇企业、居民之间进行的小额贸易在双方商定的边境口岸和贸易点进行。90年代初,原苏联解体,我国实行沿边开放、鼓励边贸的政策,边境贸易爆发性兴起。国家对边境贸易实行税收减半等优惠政策,边境地方政府采取灵活政策,边贸经营迅速扩大。经营者由边境地区企业和个体经营者扩     

News spillovers in the sovereign debt market

We study the effect of a sovereign credit rating change of one country on the sovereign credit spreads of other countries from 1991 to 2000. We find evidence of spillover effects; that is, a ratings change in one country has a significant effect on sovereign credit spreads of other countries. This effect is asymmetric: positive ratings events abroad have no discernable impact on sovereign spreads, whereas negative ratings events are associated with an increase in spreads. On average, a one-notch downgrade of a sovereign bond is associated with a 12 basis point increase in spreads of sovereign bonds of other countries. The magnitude of the spillover effect following a negative ratings change is amplified by recent ratings changes in other countries. We distinguish between common information and differential components of spillovers. While common information spillovers imply that sovereign spreads move in tandem, differential spillovers are expected to result in opposite effects of ratings events across countries. Despite the predominance of common information spillovers, we also find evidence of differential spillovers among countries with highly negatively correlated capital flows or trade flows vis-á-vis the United States. That is, spreads in these countries generally fall in response to a downgrade of a country with highly negatively correlated capital or trade flows. Variables proxying for cultural or institutional linkages (e.g., common language, formal trade blocs, common law legal systems), physical proximity, and rule of law traditions across countries do not seem to affect estimated spillover effects.     

Competitividad de la administración de las aduanas en el marco del comercio internacional

Customs clearance is a required act for international traders. However, customs clearance can be a daunting process to enter new markets. Therefore, it is of fundamental importance that customs administrations act as facilitators of commercial process and a security provider to ensure timely delivery and cost reduction of international trade, which leads to optimization of international logistics and competitive advantage of firms and nations in the global value chain (Shujie & Zhao, 2009). This study evaluates, through Principal Component Analysis, customs competitiveness at the international trade framework considering the most important variables that affect customs competitiveness and economic performance with respect to these variables. The objects of study are twenty-nine countries. The results shown in the customs competitiveness index point out that the most competitive countries in customs according to the variables assessed are -in a descending order- Panama, followed by China, India, Germany, Korea, Sweden, Singapore, Turkey, Thailand and Chile.     

INTER-INDUSTRY DIFFERENCES IN THE RESPONSE OF TRADE CREDIT TO CHANGES IN MONETARY POLICY

Trade Credit is an important source of finance for firms and with increasing emphasis being placed on monetary policy in recent years in many western countries it is important to examine thk relationship between trade credit and monetary policy. This study uses a large firm-based data series to examine various hypotheses concerning the impact and determination of trade credit flows. The study demonstrates significant differences in the exogenous variables across industries and casts considerable doubt on the validity of earlier aggregated studies of the issue. It is also found that whilst there are dif- ferences between industries, tight monetary policy does not seem to be offset by an extension of net trade credit.     

海南自贸港个人所得税法律制度研究

海南自贸港个人所得税法律制度的推进并非一蹴而就,而是需要遵循一定的程序性安排:一方面,需要在其中试验新型政策与法律制度,以迎合其"试验最高水平开放政策"的目标;另一方面,需要在海南自贸港设立特殊政策与制度,推进中国特色自由贸易港建设.为此,在封关运作前,应完善海南自贸港的税收优惠条件与方式,构建"行业+身份+收入"的享...     

亚洲新兴经济体国际资本流动驱动因素研究——基于GMM模型的实证分析

理解资本流入的驱动因素,对于设计一个有效的资本流动管理政策框架至关重要。本文研究了1998年至2018年间45个新兴经济体面临的各类资本流动的驱动因素,重点分析了资本流向亚洲地区的驱动因素与其他地区的共性和异质性。使用广义矩估计方法(GMM)对面板数据集的实证结果表明,对新兴经济体而言,制度质量和国内因素对吸引资本流入具有重要影响;对亚洲地区来说,人均收入增长和贸易开放是吸引资本流入的重要驱动因素,国内外利差水平和实际有效汇率变动对吸引组合投资和其他投资具有显著影响,VIX指数和影子利率对亚洲新兴经济体资本流动规模的影响也具有重要影响。这表明,在设计管理资本流入的政策框架时,全球经济金融合作和政策协调应被考虑在内。     

International price dispersion in state-dependent pricing models

Menu-cost models predict a hump-shaped relationship between real and nominal exchange rate volatility. The hump occurs at higher values of nominal exchange rate volatility, the higher trade costs and lower international substitution elasticities are. These predictions accord well with the negative relationship between relative price and nominal exchange rate volatility I document using a data set of prices collected in Eastern Europe in a volatile environment. In contrast, trade costs must be sufficiently high or international substitution elasticities low in order for the model to account for the positive correlation between real and nominal exchange rate volatility in the aggregate data.     

Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

We exploit differences across U.S. states' exposure to trade to study the effects of changes in the exchange rate on economic activity. Across states, trade-weighted exchange rate depreciations are associated with increased state exports, reduced state unemployment, and higher state hours worked. The effects are particularly strong during periods of economic slack. A multiregion model with interstate trade and labor flows, calibrated to match state-level trade data and migration flows, replicates the empirical relationship between exchange rates and unemployment. The high degree of interstate trade plays an important role in transmitting shocks across states in the first year, whereas interstate migration shapes cross-sectional patterns in later years. We use the model to study the regional effects of tariffs in the United States. The model suggests that a 25% Chinese import tariff on U.S. goods would be felt throughout the United States, even in states with small direct linkages to China, raising unemployment rates by 0.2 to 0.7 percentage points in the short run.     

Current account imbalances and financial integration in the euro area

While the current account of the euro area as a whole has remained almost balanced in the past two decades, several member countries have sizeable deficits or surpluses. In this paper, we interpret these imbalances as indicators of net capital flows among the euro-area countries. We distinguish between balances against the euro zone and the rest of the world and examine these for the EU-15 countries. We find that for euro members the net flows follow differences in per-capita incomes, even before the introduction of the euro. Our results show further that with the introduction of the common currency the elasticity with respect to per-capita incomes of net capital flows within the euro area has increased for the members of the euro zone. This increase can neither be observed for the flows between the euro members and the rest of the world nor for the flows between the countries that stayed outside the monetary union and the euro zone. We interpret this as evidence for increasing financial integration in the euro area. There is also some evidence suggesting that the introduction of the euro has led to some financial diversion.     

Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk

This paper argues that the effect of exchange risk on bilateral and aggregate trade flows should be analyzed by including the impact of third-country exchange risk factors in addition to direct bilateral or multilateral risk. After a theoretical examination of these effects, US bilateral export flow to its six largest trading partners are analyzed empirically. I find individuality and jointly significant third-country risk effects in most cases. In contrast to some recent bilateral efforts, I find a steadily growing negative impact on trade flows from exchange risk during floating. And in contrast to recent aggregate trade flow studies, I conclude that there was no temporary decline in exchange risk during the late 1970s.