Non-Linearity Between Life Insurance and Economic Development: A Revisited Approach

This paper investigates the non-linear link between economic development and activities of the life insurance market. We ask whether the relevance of institutional environments on the development of the life insurance market is different across countries. Applying a novel threshold model with the instrumental variable approach, we find overwhelming evidence in support of an income threshold. Moreover, legal and political circumstances have an overwhelming positive effect on life insurance in low-income countries, but the effect is marginal in high-income countries. Our findings clearly demonstrate that the role of institutions on activities in the life insurance market diminishes with the evolvement of economic development.     

Financial Development and Intersectoral Allocation: A New Approach

This paper uses a new methodology based on industry comovement to examine the role of financial market development in intersectoral allocation. Based on the assumption that there exist common global shocks to growth opportunities, we hypothesize that country pairs should have correlated patterns of sectoral growth if they are able to respond to these shocks. Consistent with financial markets promoting responsiveness to shocks, countries have more highly correlated growth rates across sectors when both countries have well‐developed financial markets. This effect is stronger between country pairs at similar levels of economic development, which are more likely to experience similar growth shocks.     

中国“经济－生态－社会”高质量发展耦合协调研究

摘 要：中国经济已由高速增长阶段转变为高质量发展阶段,实现高质量发展是适应社会主要矛盾变化的重要途径。本文基于2008－2019年中国30个省级的面板数据,采用改进熵值法和耦合协调发展模型,分析中国经济、生态和社会三个系统的耦合协调发展程度,探究中国高质量发展水平及变化趋势。结果表明：（1）中国不同省份的经济、生态和社会系统的综合得分值均处于不断上升的趋势,而经济系统综合得分均值显著低于生态系统和社会系统,并且各区域之间存在差异;（2）中国各省份经济、生态和社会系统表现出较高的相互作用强度,三系统的耦合协调度趋势向好,省域高质量发展呈“东－中－西”递减的特征。最后,本文从发挥东部地区辐射效应与挖掘中西部地区内生潜力、打造城市发展群、贯彻绿色发展理念角度提出相关政策建议。     

我国服务贸易与经济发展——基于行业面板数据的分析

本文利用1997年到2006年8个服务贸易行业的面板数据,通过分析我国服务贸易进出口与经济发展之间的关系,肯定了我国入世后服务贸易进出口快速发展的同时,发现服务贸易进口对经济发展的促进作用要大于服务贸易出口。从行业结构上还发现我国目前占我国服务贸易进出口过半的传统服务贸易行业对经济发展的促进作用偏低而相对份额较少的新兴服务贸易行业,也就是资本知识密集服务行业对经济发展的促进作用较大。另外国际文化服务贸易对我国经济发展具有较强推动作用,我国应该进一步重视国际文化服务贸易的发展,增强中华文化的国际影响力。     

新贸易理论的新拓展——对现代企业理论的吸纳

中间产品贸易已成为国际贸易增长的重要方式,但它与主流贸易理论发生了偏离.这促使以H-K为主要框架的新贸易理论对现代企业理论的吸纳.该文梳理了相关文献,对从交易成本理论、产权理论、激励机制理论和控制权授权理论来拓展国际贸易理论的新成果,进行了归纳和评述,说明了当前该领域的研究动态.这一研究成果表明:人们思考国际贸易的方法正在发生根本性变化;为国际贸易中企业行为的研究提供了理论基础;对新贸易理论进行了有力补充和完善;为全球化新条件下我国国际贸易和企业国际化的发展提供了理论借鉴和现实启示.     

"新地区主义"对中国-东盟区域经济合作的影响

中国—东盟的区域经济合作是在一种新的意识即“东亚意识”上产生的,而其推动力量是新地区主义思维在东亚的出现。新地区主义不但影响和改变着东盟区域经济合作的战略思维,而且也影响着中国区域经济合作的思维方式和战略走向。中国—东盟区域经济合作的产生与发展就是在东亚新地区主义的影响和推动下而产生和发展起来的。     

A New Approach to Depreciation

This paper presents a new 'matching' based approach to depreciation that incorporates interest adjustments and generates accounting measurements that are consistent with the ex post Net Terminal Values of fixed assets. The method has been developed from the concept of Earned Economic Income by the application of concepts drawn from the existing literature. The calculations and ledger entries involved are illustrated in the appendices.     

蒙古国经济发展及中蒙经贸关系的可持续性

近十多年来保持高速增长的蒙古国经济,高度依赖矿产品和畜产品等资源型产品出口,维持其经济可持续发展的基础工业则极端落后,生活必需品和工业设备主要依赖进口。蒙古国的对外贸易高度依赖中国,其对中国的出口占其对外出口总额的80％以上。中国在中蒙经济关系中存在着较为严重的短期行为,即中国在大量进口蒙古国矿产资源的同时,未能对其经济可持续发展相关的基础工业进行投资,从而导致蒙古国对与中国发展经贸关系的担心,这也是蒙古国近些年积极发展与西方国家关系的原因。中国应利用蒙古国经济的特点,加强对其基础工业领域的投资,增加其经济发展的可持续性,促进两国关系的可持续发展。     

贸易战对2019年中美外经贸经济影响显现

尽管中美之间的贸易关税战已经偃旗息鼓,但是,从2018年开始的关税调整已经实实在在地影响了中美的外经贸发展,对中美两国外经贸的负面影响正在逐渐显现,已经对中国和美国经济增长、双边货物贸易、利用外资和直接投资等产生了愈来愈大的负面影响,甚至对两国国民经济的发展也产生了一定的影响。衷心希望中美第一阶段的贸易协定得到认真的落实,也十分期盼中美贸易尽快步入正常发展的轨道.     

新区域经济一体化理论的兴起与发展

80年代中期以来，世界范围内掀起了区域经济一体化浪潮，在其发展过程中，蕴含着某些特殊的规律，是传统理论无法解释的。于是，新区域一体化理论相继问世，而欧盟的诞生及随之采取的重大决策，有力地推动了区域经济一体化前进的步伐，并对新区域一体化理论的发展做出了重要贡献。     

中国银行 一面“稳外贸” 一面“助小微”

在北京,为能源企业办理数十亿美元跨境贸易汇款,全力保证能源供应;在河南,为大型钢铁企业开立大额国际信用证,有力保障铁矿石原材进口;在广东,为五金模具企业批复千万元贷款,支持5G基站设施生产……一面稳外贸,一面助小微,近来,中国银行支持企业开工大吉的故事多多。     

低碳经济:中国经济发展面临的新课题

当前,气候变暖已严重威胁到人类可持续发展,应对气候变化成了全球共同面临的重大挑战。气候变化的原因除了自然因素外,与人类的活动特别是与使用化石燃料过程中排放二氧化碳的程度密切相关。随着气候变暖,人们对低碳经济的呼唤也日趋强烈,因此,低碳经济成为中国经济发展面临的新课题。     

The Impact of IFRS 16 on Key Financial Ratios: A New Methodological Approach

In January 2016, the International Accounting Standards Board issued a new standard for lease accounting: International Financial Reporting Starndard (IFRS) 16. IFRS 16 will lead to the capitalisation of the majority of current operating leases by lessees. We analyse the impact of the new accounting model on entity’s key financial, contributing to research by making significant changes in the Imhoff et al. [(1991). Operating leases: Impact of constructive capitalization. Accounting Horizons, 5(1), 51–63. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&;db=buh&;AN=9604010111&;site=ehost-live; (1997). Operating leases: Income effects of constructive capitalization. Accounting Horizons, 11(2), 12–32. Retrieved from http://0-search.proquest.com.fama.us.es/docview/208896121?accountid=14744] methodology used by previous authors. We change how the lease term is estimated (more aligned with the final approved standard), and how the discount rate is obtained. Furthermore, we use a more comprehensive sample (646 quoted European companies). In line with previous research we find important systematic impacts on key balance sheet financial ratios (mainly leverage ratios), on a magnitude that depends on the operating lease intensity of the sector in which the entity operates. Our estimated impact is generally higher than that obtained in previous studies. The most affected sectors are retail, hotels and transportation. We do not find a consistent result with regard to the effect on profitability ratios.     

The Hybrid Option: A New Approach to Equity Compensation

Equity compensation can provide part of the expected reward needed to attract and retain talent while strengthening the unity of interest between management and its shareholders. But more can be done. Until now, managers and boards have used standard equity instruments such as restricted common stock and at-the-money stock options. Boards typically place various restrictions on these instruments to improve retention or alignment, or mix and match them according to taste or fashion. But each of these standard instruments has well-understood limitations. For example, employee stock options that are granted at the money are worth considerably less, on the day of the grant, to the managers that receive them than to the shareholders of the companies that give them. And the values of both options and restricted stock depend heavily on variables, like the general state of the economy, that have little or nothing to do with managerial performance.
An instrument designed specifically for executive compensation can overcome these limitations. More specifically, the author proposes the use of options that are both in-the-money —to limit their value-to-cost discount—and indexed to industry- and market-wide variables—to tie rewards more directly to firm-specific performance. Properly designed, such a hybrid instrument could meet all the equity-based compensation objectives for a given company, greatly simplifying its compensation plans, while improving the balance among the compensation governance criteria of retention, alignment, and cost control.     

中国大陆经济增长对台湾地区进口贸易的影响

1978年以来，中国大陆施行改革开放政策，经济随之快速增长。运用回归分析法的研究结果表明，中国大陆的经济增长与台湾地区进口贸易规模的变化正相关，印证了近20年来中国大陆经济增长对台湾地区的进口贸易影响具有正面效应。     

货币流通速度的计算方法探讨

文章澄清了货币数量方程式MV=PY中M的真正含义,指出运用公式V=PY/M计算货币流通速度可能存在的问题。在强制结汇制等假设条件下,推导出中国货币流通速度的计算公式。并利用来自中国1991年至2006年的宏观经济数据进行了两公式的计算和比较。     

战略性贸易政策:新世纪对外贸易政策的发展趋势

20世纪70年代兴起的战略性贸易政策，将成为新世纪各国对外贸易政策的发展趋势。这一政策不仅有可信的理论依据，还有广泛的实践内容，为多边贸易从内容到形式上提供了良好的活动空间。因此，在新形势下，我国的对外贸易政策应该及时做好转变和应对。     

A New Approach to Markov-Switching GARCH Models

The use of Markov-switching models to capture the volatilitydynamics of financial time series has grown considerably duringpast years, in part because they give rise to a plausible interpretationof nonlinearities. Nevertheless, GARCH-type models remain ubiquitousin order to allow for nonlinearities associated with time-varyingvolatility. Existing methods of combining the two approachesare unsatisfactory, as they either suffer from severe estimationdifficulties or else their dynamic properties are not well understood.In this article we present a new Markov-switching GARCH modelthat overcomes both of these problems. Dynamic properties arederived and their implications for the volatility process discussed.We argue that the disaggregation of the variance process offeredby the new model is more plausible than in the existing variants.The approach is illustrated with several exchange rate returnseries. The results suggest that a promising volatility modelis an independent switching GARCH process with a possibly skewedconditional mixture density.     

A New Approach to International Arbitrage Pricing

This paper uses a nonlinear arbitrage-pricing model, a conditional linear model, and an unconditional linear model to price international equities, bonds, and forward currency contracts. Unlike linear models, the nonlinear arbitrage-pricing model requires no restrictions on the payoff space, allowing it to price payoffs of options, forward contracts, and other derivative securities. Only the nonlinear arbitrage-pricing model does an adequate job of explaining the time series behavior of a cross section of international returns.     

银行业宏观审慎监管研究的新思路

本文根据从下向上的方法以及金融外部性的分析框架,提出了一个银行业宏观审慎监管研究的新理论思路。该思路说明,宏观审慎监管和微观审慎监管的区别不在于监管工具,而在于对监管标准的把握。该思路不仅有助于解释目前已推出的主要的银行宏观审慎监管措施,而且也能用来开发新的宏观审慎监管工具。