Real Rates of Return in Electricity Supply: New South Wales,Tasmania and Victoria*

This paper uses a newly developed economic return model to estimate the real (inflation adjusted) costs of supply, and rates of return, for the electricity systems in three States over very long time periods. It is shown that because of a combination of public ownership and the use of historical cost accounts, the real return on capital tends to fall with the onset of rapid inflation such as occurred in the mid 1970s In NSW in particular the rapid growth in demand for electricity in the 1970s due to falling real electricity prices and considerable increases in other energy prices has given rise to a major investment program and rapidly developing excess capacity. Higher real electricity prices in the 1980s, combined with the economic slump of 1982, resulted in low or negative growth rates in demand Much of the boom I bust mentality evident in all three States may have been avoided or ameliorated had the electrical supply authorities been required to earn even a very modest real rate of return of (say) 4 or more per cent p.a. which is considerably below the (pre-tax) return earned in the corporate sector.     

SWEDEN AFTER NUCLEAR POWER

The social costs of providing energy are varied and difficult to compare. Sweden's recent energy policy is notable for its broad-based initiatives to internalize those social costs of energy that are difficult to measure in strictly monetary terms. This article focuses on one such initiative– the Swedish law to phase out nuclear power by the year 2010–and its relationship to other national goals: The hydroelectric system is not to expand, carbon dioxide emissions are to remain at current levels or decline, and oil-import dependence is to be minimized. In addition to this challenge, between now and 2010 the Swedish economy is expected to maintain an average 1.9 percent real annual growth rate and to remain competitive industrially. Scenarios of future electricity demand and the accompanying supply mix illustrate the spectrum of costs – internal and external–from which Sweden can choose in implementing the phase-out plan and in determining whether one can identify paths that simultaneously reconcile Sweden's potentially conflicting policy goals. The results show that the direct economic costs of high-efficiency/low-externality scenarios are less than those of low-efficiency/high-externality scenarios. Traditional societal economics does not stand as a barrier to energy futures that are consistent with Sweden's desire to further reduce the external societal costs of energy. The results are also significant since they demonstrate that strategies to reduce global climate change need not rely on nuclear power.     

Economies of Scale and Utilization: An Analysis of the Multi-Plant Generation Costs of the Electricity Commission of New South Wales, 1970/71–1984/85*

We examine the average costs of electricity generated in NSW at the site level employing a new simultaneous-equations model approach Further, we argue that costs depend principally on unit size and capacity utilization We reinterpret capacity utilization as a compositional variable which is a continuous proxy for the (inverse of) the intensity of demand for electricity, thus partially addressing the multi-product nature of electricity. Low capacity utilization corresponds to intense demands and hence peaking output We find that costs per kWh, as conventionally measured, are highly sensitive to the degree of capacity utilization but less so to unit size (scale). The results emphasize the need for tine-related pricing     

电力需求分析与实证研究

目前中国电力供应长期处于紧张状态,需求大于供给的矛盾将长期存在,需求预测管理将有助于缓解供需矛盾。分析影响电力需求的主要经济因素,建立计量经济模型,对分析和预测电力需求的增长具有现实的意义。     

财政的政策性职能何去何从？

单纯调整总量关系的财政政策定位已经不能适用需要，长期性，战略性，体制性因素巳成为影响供求平衡的主要因素。财政政策应当在资本退出的补偿援助上发挥更大的作用，对过剩生产能力可施行政策性收购。财政要“积极”承担改革成本，可用发长债的收入直接支付改革过程中的转转代价，比较少的财政资源调动更多增量资源向落后地区集中，有必要探索“地方发债、中央贴息”的方法。     

Theory and Application of Linear Supply Function Equilibrium in Electricity Markets

We consider a supply function equilibrium (SFE) model of interaction in an electricity market. We assume a linear demand function and consider a competitive fringe and several strategic players having capacity limits and affine marginal costs. The choice of SFE over Cournot equilibrium and other models and the choice of affine marginal costs is reviewed in the context of the existing literature. We assume that bid rules allow affine or piecewise affine non-decreasing supply functions by firms and extend results of Green and Rudkevitch concerning the linear SFE solution. An incentive compatibility result is proved. We also find that a piecewise affine SFE can be found easily for the case where there are non-negativity limits on generation. Upper capacity limits, however, pose problems and we propose an ad hoc approach. We apply the analysis to the England and Wales electricity market, considering the 1996 and 1999 divestitures. The piecewise affine SFE solutions generally provide better matches to the empirical data than previous analysis.     

Forecasting demand for electricity in Maryland: An econometric approach

Most of the models for forecasting demand for energy are based on simple extrapolations of past trends or on a simple regression equation with price of the energy and the stock of appliances as explanatory variables. In this paper, an attempt has been made to derive static and dynamic multiple regression equations from economic theory of consumption and production (Section II). Historical data were fitted to these theoretical constructs to test the equations in terms of econometric theory and forecast the demand according to “higher order conditional interval forecasts”. The residential demand for electricity is a function of its price, price of its substitute, per capita income and a lagged demand variable for dynamic adjustment of actual demand to equilibrium demand for electricity. The forecasts of residential demand to 1990 are based on projections of exogenous variables such as residential price of electricity, per capita income and the estimated long run elasticity of demand (Section III). The nonresidential demand for electricity is a function of employment in that sector, sectoral prices of electricity and the lagged sectoral demand. The forecasts of nonresidential electricity demand are also based on projections of its independent variables (Section IV). The last section converts the total demand for electricity into the required generating capacities and juxtaposes them against the estimates of expected supplies available from the forecasts of the utilities. The paper concludes that the eighties will be faced with excess supply of electricity in Maryland, in case the assumptions of projections of independent variables hold good. The misallocation of resources inherent in such excess supplies could be avoided if realistic scenerios of future demand, as attempted in this paper, could be predicted.     

The Costs of Power Interruptions in Germany: A Regional and Sectoral Analysis

A high standard of security of electricity supply comes at serious electricity system costs. However, these system costs have to be balanced with the economic costs induced by an insecure supply of electricity. Following a macroeconomic approach, we analyze the economic costs imposed by potential power interruptions in Germany. Using an extensive dataset on industries and households, we estimate both Values of Lost Load and the associated hourly costs of power interruptions for different German regions and sectors. We find that interruption costs vary significantly over time, between sectors and regions. Peaking at midday on a Monday in December at 750 Mio € per hour, the average total national outage costs amount to approximately 430 Mio € per hour. A missing gigawatt hour creates average outage costs of about 7.6 Mio €.     

我国电力供需平衡周期性震荡的原因及应对策略研究

本文从系统的观点出发．结合电力工业的特点，分析了影响电力供需平衡的主要影响因素及其因果关系，建立了反映电力供给需求动态变化的系统动力学模型，模拟仿真了各种调节手段的运用对电力供应需求系统的影响，并从完善规划、加强需求侧管理两方面提出抑制电力供需周期性震荡的措施与建议。该模型的建立为系统的分析电力供需的动态变化提供了一定的参考和依据。     

Analyzing Gas and Electric Convergence Mergers: A Supply Curve is Worth a Thousand Words

The recent trend toward convergence mergers between gas and electric utilities raises questions regarding merger analysis. Standard concentration measures do not capture adequately the ability of the merged firm to raise rivals' costs or impede their access to natural gas supplies. Estimating electricity supply curves for various time periods gives analysts an additional tool for predicting future market outcomes.     

Factors affecting electricity generation in China: Current situation and prospects

China has attracted worldwide attention due to the global economic and environmental effects of its rapid economic growth over the last 20 years, with particular attention given to the country's accelerating energy consumption and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. China's electricity sector is particularly important for both of these issues as it accounts for nearly half of its greenhouse gas emissions and even greater proportions of the country's demands for primary fuel resources. In order to better understand how these issues may progress in an economy changing as fast as China's, this paper develops a framework that can be used to help model the electricity sector's future development. The framework builds upon key technological and socio-economic drivers, including those affecting electricity demand (e.g., economic growth, structure, energy efficiency, urbanization, and change in per capita income) and electricity supply (e.g., deregulation, initiatives to promote natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy, air pollution regulations, price developments for coal and natural gas, and changes in generation technology). The framework serves as a foundation for a scenario exercise on the greenhouse gas and fuel consumption impacts of different developmental paths for China's electricity sector. These scenarios and their implications for emissions and fuel consumption are presented in a subsequent article.     

Segregating genetically modified and nongenetically modified corn in a marketing channel

The adoption of GM corn in the United States depends on many factors including segregation costs, which have minor impacts on aggregate welfare. Because the demand for nonGM corn is small relative to its supply, no premium for nonGM corn can be generated in excess of the segregation costs. An outward shift in the supply of corn resulting from the adoption of GM varieties has a greater impact on aggregate welfare than do the segregation costs required to satisfy the GM-free demand. A 10% increase in the aggregate supply of GM corn increases aggregate welfare by more than US $250 million. However, nonadopters of GM corn lose while adopters can gain or lose depending on the nature of the aggregate demand curve for US corn.     

Implications of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions trading for short-run electricity market outcomes in northwest Europe

We examine the short-run implications of CO₂ trading for power production, prices, emissions, and generator profits in northwest Europe in 2005. Simulation results from a transmission-constrained oligopoly model are compared with theoretical analyses to quantify price increases and windfall profits earned by generators. The analyses indicate that the rates at which CO₂ costs are passed through to wholesale prices are affected by market competitiveness, merit order changes, and elasticities of demand and supply. Emissions trading results in large windfall profits, much but not all of which is due to free allocation of allowances. Profits also increase for some generators because their generation mix has low emissions, and so they benefit from electricity price increases. Most emission reductions appear to be due to demand response not generation redispatch.      

Supply function equilibria of pay-as-bid auctions

This paper characterizes the Nash equilibrium in a pay-as-bid (discriminatory), divisible-good, procurement auction. Demand by the auctioneer is uncertain as in the supply function equilibrium model. A closed form expression is derived for a one shot game. Existence of an equilibrium is ensured if the hazard rate of the demand distribution is monotonically decreasing with respect to the shock outcome and sellers have non-decreasing marginal costs. Multiple equilibria can be ruled out for markets, for which the auctioneer’s demand exceeds suppliers’ capacity with a positive probability. The derived equilibrium can be used to model strategic bidding behavior in pay-as-bid electricity auctions, such as the balancing mechanism of United Kingdom. Offer curves and mark-ups of the derived equilibrium are compared to results for the SFE of a uniform-price auction.      

Energy in America's future

Energy in America's Future, the book reported on in this article, assembled facts and performed analyses required for making informed energy choices. It reached broad conclusions on supply and demand prospects and on the environmental and other social aspects of policy choices. Although near-term constraints are severely binding, the nation's natural resource position is favorable for long-run supply expansion. Future technologies are also promising in cost terms. Although costs are bound to rise, a ceiling on long-run supply costs looks to be possible at real levels surprisingly close to current prices. Energy consumption in relationship to overall national output (GNP) will be growing at a slower rate than in recent decades. Consumers will use relatively less energy as a result of higher energy prices, conservation incentives, and new energy-using technology. Even so, overall energy use will grow. Major energy demand policy issues concern not just the likely rate of growth of consumption, but also the possible problems connected with optimizing energy efficiency at the expense of economic efficiency (i.e., output in relation to all inputs, particularly those of labor and capital). Environmental impacts and concerns about questions of human health and safety will continue to affect public acceptance of particular energy technologies. The public will need to be adequately informed on the comparative risks of energy supply technologies, and the technical and institutional means available for reducing these risks. The price system must be permitted to function to the maximum feasible extent. In addition, the task for political leadership is to forge a public consensus in support of achievable energy goals. This has been difficult because of conflicting public perceptions of the facts and clashes in social values among different groups. The future prospects for achieving a national energy consensus should be enhanced by the outlook for slower energy demand growth and favorable supply prospects along with potential improvements in the environmental side effects associated with new and improved supply technologies. As knowledge of these changing circumstances becomes more broadly disseminated, the ability to achieve broad public support of energy goals should grow stronger.     

Consumer Ownership in Liberalized Electricity Markets. The Case of Denmark

The continuation of consumer ownership has been an important part of the Danish electricity reform from 1999. Consumer ownership refers to either a consumer co-operative or a municipal utility. Contrary to conventional wisdom, consumer ownership can be supported by solid arguments from modern economic theory of organization. These arguments are presented and confronted with both present and future situation in Denmark. The development of the electricity supply industry after the Second World War has emptied consumer ownership of much of its original content. Nowadays, most consumers consider their electric utility as the (monopoly) supplier of a good they demand and not as something they own. Therefore, obligatory consumer ownership as specified in the new Danish Electricity Act of 1999 cannot be relied on to guarantee security of supply and reasonable prices for small consumers     

Pricing power supplied on an interruptible basis

This paper deals with Pareto-optimal pricing of an electric utility whose demand is subject to random fluctuations. Its purpose is to extend previous results obtained by Boiteux and Drèze in two directions. First, the maximum power contracted by subscribers is charged instead of the variance of individual consumptions, which makes the model closer to most existing rate structures. Second, subscribers are allowed to choose among several types of supply differentiated by the probability with which their delivery is guaranteed. Most electricity companies are indeed known to supply power on an interruptible basis. In return for a reduction in their electricity bills, some customers give the company the right to cut off part of their supply when demand rises close to generating capacity.     

An experimental investigation of soft price caps in uniform price auction markets for wholesale electricity

This paper presents the results from an auction experiment using industry professionals and student participants who compete in a simulated wholesale market for electricity. Motivated by the intervention by FERC in response to the “meltdown” of the California spot market, we investigate the effect of including a “soft” price cap in a uniform price auction as a means of mitigating high prices. When prices are driven above the soft cap, offer curves become flat, in contrast to the hockey stick shape observed in a typical uniform price auction for electricity. This flat offer curve leads to market prices that are relatively insensitive to both generation costs and demand reductions.      

RETAIL PRICE REGULATION AND THE OPTION TO DELAY

ABSTRACT ** :  This paper examines a two-period model of an investment decision in a network industry characterized by demand uncertainty, economies of scale and sunk costs. In the absence of regulation we identify the market conditions under which a monopolist decides to invest early as well as the underlying overall welfare output. In a regulated environment, we consider a monopolist who faces no downstream (final good) competition but is subject to retail price regulation. We identify the welfare-maximizing regulated prices when the unregulated market outcome is set as the benchmark. We show that if the regulator can commit to ex post regulation – that is, regulated prices that are contingent to future demand realization – then regulated prices that allow the firm to recover its total costs of production are welfare-maximizing. Thus, under ex post price regulation there is no need to compensate the regulated firm for the option to delay that it foregoes when investing today. We argue, however, that regulators cannot make this type of commitment and, therefore, price regulation is often ex ante – that is, regulated prices are not contingent to future demand. We show that the optimal ex ante regulation, and the extent to which regulated prices need to incorporate an option to delay, depend on the nature of demand uncertainty.     

Coal gasification: An economic evaluation

Political interest in developing the capability to produce gaseous fuel from coal in the United States has been cyclical in nature, depending primarily upon the security of the international market for oil and public attitudes toward nuclear power. Interest in coal gasification technology by private investors, however, depends primarily on the economic and technological considerations analyzed in this paper. A cost forecasting model is developed with the capability to take into account future economic and technological uncertainties associated with producing high BTU gas (a substitute for natural gas) from coal. The cost forecasting model incorporates probabilistic information on key economic and technological parameters subject to future uncertainty and simulates, by Monte Carlo methods, the costs which private investors would incur over the life of a commercial size coal gasification plant. The results suggest it is highly unlikely that the coal gasification process could produce high BTU gas more cheaply than the price at which natural gas is likely to be available.The cost forecasting model is also modified to compare the cost per kilowatt–hour of generated electricity when fueling a 1,000 Mw power plant with oil versus high BTU gas from coal. Again, based upon the costs to private investors, the simulation results indicate a very low probability that high BTU gas from coal would prove the least costly fuel for generating electricity.The implied economic infeasibility for private investment in coal gasification does not necessarily provide a basis for public policy to abandon the technology. Public policy recommendations must consider social costs as well as private costs. Possibly the greatest social cost associated with abandoning coal gasification is the risk of a significant energy supply interruption. A diversified national energy policy including coal gasification may in fact be less costly if relevant social costs are included in the calculations. Results from the cost forecasting model indicate the size and type of public subsidies that may be necessary to support a diversified energy industry which would include coal gasification.