对公司股票价值评价模型的分析研究

长期以来,股票价值的评估受到广泛的重视和研究,并有了许多的研究成果,帕拉特和哈布纳认为,在理论上股票价格与真实价值是一致的,但实际上两差异颇大。强调股票标价格和市场因素与金融的关系。莫迪更强调上市公司产业别“质”的考虑。股票价值评价本身不存在确切的结果,本综合了社会上一些流行的价值评价的方法,     

证券内在价值评估模型研究综述

本文以股票为例 ,综述国内外证券内在价值评估模型方面的研究成果 ,包括Ｇｏｒｄｏｎ模型、Ｗａｌｔｅｒ模型、分阶段增长模型等贴现现金流模型和每股收益评价模型。1　贴现现金流模型贴现现金流模型是内在价值理论的核心 ,其基础是美国投资理论家威廉斯在《投资价值理论》一书中列出的一个著名的公式———威廉斯公式 ,该公式以所有未来股息的现值之和表示股票的价值 ,如式 (1)所示。Ｐｔ=∑+∞ｊ=1Ｄｔ+ｊ(1+ｉ) ｊ　　　　　　 (1)式中 :Ｐｔ 为ｔ时刻一股股票的价格 ;Ｄｔ+ ｊ为ｔ +ｊ时刻获得的股息 ,ｊ=1,2 ,3…… ;ｉ为合适的贴现率…     

限售股解禁冲击波

自2012年12月起,市场回暖.沪指自1949点一路上涨,热点频出。然而随着大盘的走强,逾300家公司相继发布了减持公告。从供应角度看,虽然IPO依然是暂停状态,但是股票减持量的上升开始让市场感到压力特大。近期减持中,创业板的减持尤为引发市场焦虑。随着创业板越来越多的公司上市满3年,创业板解禁的大潮正在到来。回望创业板这3年,高成长神话破灭,逾7成股票破发。而创业板的"高市盈率、高发行价、高募资额",却成就了大批原始股东为亿万富翁。创业板会否成为股东们的"提款机",会否在今年成为二级市场的重灾区,会否     

灰色聚类方法在创业板股票投资价值评估中的应用

由于客观条件约束,在进行股票投资价值分析时,有时只能获得少量的不完备信息。鉴于此情况,文章将灰色理论的"小样本"、"贫信息"思想引入股票投资价值的评价研究中。采用灰色系统理论中的灰色聚类方法,对创业板中的11支股票按照6项聚类指标进行灰聚类分析,通过计算不同指标的灰色聚类系数,最后以聚类类型来定性评价股票的投资价值。实证结果表明,灰色聚类方法不仅降低了对数据量和信息量的要求,而且能有效区分出具备不同投资价值的股票。     

我国创业板上市公司业绩持续性研究

创业板市场为高新技术企业和高成长型中小企业上市融资提供了便利。选取了145家创业板上市公司作为研究样本,采取层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评价模型(FCE)相结合的方法,构建创业板上市公司业绩持续性评价指标体系,对创业板上市公司业绩持续性进行定量评价。结果发现:创业板上市公司在盈利能力、资产管理能力、股东收益、无形资产、外部环境等评价要素层次的业绩持续性评价值相对一般,对应的业绩持续性能力、动力等基本要素层次的评价值也相对不足。     

国信证券基金综合评价体系

研究表明,基金过去表现并不保证未来回报,通过行之有效的方法和渠道获取基金动态数据是未来基金评级的方向。自本期始,我们推出国信证券基金综合评价体系,以星级方式对基金综合实力进行评价。评价项目包括:1年期开放式股票型基金评级、1年期开放式混合型基金评级、2年期开放式股票型基金评级、2年期开放式股票型基金评级。     

频频无视退市制度

<正>近期,深圳证券交易所(简称深交所)总经理宋丽萍首度披露创业板退市制度的原则及框架,并增加了两个退市标准:一是在最近三年内累计受到交易所公开谴责三次的;二是股票成交价格连续低于面值的,都将终止上市。所谓创业板市场退市机制,即指于创业板上市公司达到法律规定     

什么样的企业热哀股市投资 投资经济周期，还是投资好公司

当前我国股票等资产价格的不断上涨、股市等证券投资的高回报率预期，不仅使得我国大量普通居民开始投资于股票等证券资产，也吸引了很多企业以巨额资金投资股票等证券类资产，企业大量投资股票、基金等证券类资产，将进一步密切单个企业与宏观经济之间的联系。[第一段]     

基于PEG模型的A股创业板股票投资价值实证分析

如何评估公司价值始终是股票投资的一个热门话题.本文选用PEG估值模型,对A股创业板2012-2017年的上市公司进行实证分析,以探索PEG模型对投资成长股价值中的有效性.实证结果显示:第一,创业板成长股的PEG值总体上远小于周期股PEG值的波动区间,这说明创业板投资者热衷于追捧市盈率高的股票;第二,个股投资回报与PEG之间无论牛熊市都呈负相关关系;即较低的PEG股票可以带来较高的收益率,且熊市PEG相关系数的绝对值大于牛市时期,这说明创业板成长股的PEG指标在熊市更有效.     

股票的溢价发行：企业股份融资的一个基本问题

股票的发行价格是指股票从发行人手中转移到初始投资者手中的价格。在发行股票时，要对企业资产进行重新评估。由于时间和价格的因素，一般要增值。因此，只有溢价发行股票，才能反映每股股票的真正价值，即每股净资产价值越高，相应的溢价率就越高。从投资者角度来讲．根据比较利益原则，当投资者预期以溢价购买股票所获得的利益大于银行存款所获利息时，就愿意以溢价购买股票。股票溢价发行有三种理论价格是：收益分析法、现金流贴现分析法和股息贴现分析法。除此之外，现实中常用的定价方法也有三种，即收益法、市价法和比较分析法。     

Time varying price discovery of the New Third Board market in China: does the market-making system help?

This paper examines whether the market-making system helps to improve the price discovery ability of New Third Board (NTB) market in China. We first estimate the time-varying coefficients error correction models, then apply common factor weight method to quantify the time-varying price discovery contributions, and finally explore the impacts of trading volume and volatility to price discovery contributions. Empirical results show that both markets have time-varying characteristic in terms of the magnitudes and directions of the equilibrium price adjustment due to error correction term. The Shanghai Composite Index, SZSE Component Index, and SME Index are found to lead in price discovery, while NTB exhibits the leadership on the GEM Index. Volume and volatility have significant influence on the price discovery contribution. The NTB contribution is positively related to its own trading activity, negatively related to the trading activity of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, while negatively correlated with the volatility of both markets. In comparison, trading activity of SZSE Component Index and volatility of GEM Index have the greatest negative impacts on the contribution of NTB market. As an important part of China’s multi-level capital market, the pricing mechanism of the NTB market needs further to be improved.     

How does leverage in stock market influence the margin of stock index futures?

In this article, we propose a margin-setting model under the assumption of extreme stock price changes. Specifically, extreme stock price changes are caused by the positive feedback effect of leverage and market impact. By introducing these factors into the futures price changes through a cost-of-carry model for setting the margin of stock index futures, we find that leverage and market impact in stock market are positively correlated with the margin.     

Tail risk under price limits

This study investigates tail risk dynamics when price limits exist in stock markets, which have not been examined in the previous literature. We present the expected value of tail risk under price limits and then analyze the extent to which such limits affect Korean stock markets when they are eased gradually. The main results are threefold. First, tail risk is seriously underestimated in stock markets with a price limit system. Second, tail risk is a significant risk factor in determining asset prices if price limits are above a certain level (15%). Lastly, related to the Korean economy, tail risk has predictive power to the future stock returns when the price limit is more than 15%. In particular, tail risk has no predictive power until price limits are relaxed to 15%, implying that caution is needed when the effects of tail risk are analyzed in countries where price limits exist.     

创业板市场风险探析

在我国设立创业板市场的条件是成熟的,至少在创业板市场设立后的一段时间内,其风险将明显低于A股市场。创业板市场的风险从根本上说取决于政府干预的弱化、市场经济规范的落实和上市公司质量的提高。     

UNCERTAINTY AVERSION AND PORTFOLIO INERTIA

In stock markets, we often observe portfolio inertia, i.e., a situation in which some stocks are not traded or not priced for a few minutes or longer. This is neither an exceptional situation in which some stock price soars too high to be priced, nor the one where some stock price plummets too much to be traded. By introducing the concept of ‘Knightian uncertainty’, Dow and Werlang (1992) account for the existence of portfolio inertia, which has not been accounted for under the concept of ‘risk’. This paper provides a characterization of the spread between buying and selling prices based on a parameter proposed by Ozaki and Streufert (1999, 2001) that enables us to estimate the attitude towards Knightian uncertainty, and shows that an increase (a decrease) in Knightian uncertainty expands (shrinks) the interval in which an investor never changes her initial position. Furthermore, we analyse the effect of an increase in Knightian uncertainty on portfolio inertia based on Epsilon‐contaminations.     

Numerosity: Forward and Reverse Stock Splits

Abstract

Individuals have a tendency to fixate on large numbers and ignore other relevant information in their decision making process. The numerosity heuristic, a cognitive bias, is the first behavioral hypothesis to explain why investors prefer to receive more shares (rather than less shares) in a stock split even though the aggregate economic value is the same. For forward splits, after controlling for the positive signaling of improved earnings growth and liquidity from the split announcement, the stock price reacts positively to the larger number of shares issued. More importantly, the use of a dual class numerosity model can explain why most conventional hypotheses fail to explain the negative stock price reaction to reverse splits. Given a typical bearish outlook associated with a reverse stock split, investors’ cognitive resources have already been conditioned to derive a systematic conclusion to sell the stock at the higher price. Focusing only on large stock price numerosity, investors are incorrectly inferring a higher investment value. As the high numerosity encourages bearish investors to sell at the higher perceived investment value, the stock returns react more negatively to the higher post-reverse split price level. In both forward and reverse split cases, investors react to high numerosity.     

投资者关系管理对我国上市公司市值管理影响的实证研究

上市公司对外信息披露是投资者关系管理的主要业务内容,在排除宏观等方面影响的条件下,单从信息披露这一因素进行分析,运用单一指数模型对目标公司的信息披露数量与股价波动趋势之间的关系进行回归分析。这一模型的结论表明：投资者关系管理对上市公司的市值管理具有正相关性影响。但在理性人假设和弱有效市场中,投资者关系管理没有立竿见影的效果,战略投资者需假以时日地对公司进行跟踪分析,做出理性的投资决策,进而从影响股价方面发掘和创造公司价值。     

中国资本市场大幅波动的经济心理分析

中国资本市场在经历了2005年以来的大涨行情后,从2007年年末到2008年中期近一年的时间中,股指不断下滑,各类股票价格屡创新低,市值损失在70%左右。除了经济基本面以及美国金融危机的影响外,投资者的经济心理因素也是一个很重要的方面,这值得我们深入探讨和研究。     

石化权证在GARCH模型下的实证检验

股票价格的波动率特征是股票衍生品价格的决定性因素。Black&Scholes假设股票价格服从几何布朗运动,其重要的假设条件是波动率为一个常数。但是,越来越多的实证研究结果表明,股票收益率存在显著的尖峰厚尾现象,其波动率存在明显的时变性特征。因此,放宽波动率恒定条件,并且研究股票波动率的变动特征,对认购权证的正确定价具有重要意义。     

Do Speculative Stocks Lower Prices and Increase Volatility of Value Stocks?

The influence of speculative stocks on value stocks is examined through a set of economics experiments. The speculative asset is designed to model a company involved in a rapidly growing market that will be saturated at some unknown point. Using a control experiment where both assets are similar value stocks, we find statistical support for the assertion that the presence of a speculative stock increases the volatility and diminishes the price of the value stock. In addition, the temporal minimum price of the value stock during the last phase of the experiment is lower in the presence of the speculative stock (when the trading price of the speculative asset is declining sharply). These results indicate that an overreaction in the speculative stock tends to divert investment capital away from other assets. An examination of the relative magnitude of monthly closing price changes confirm strong correlations between the Dow Jones Average and the more speculative Nasdaq index during the time period 1990 to 2001 and particularly during the two years prior to the peak in March 2000 (0.72 correlation) and the March 2000 to August 2001 decline (0.79 correlation). Supplementary experiments using independent (or legally separate) markets trading the same asset show that a higher price in one market does not lead to a higher one in the other.