Hospital staff shortage: the role of the competitiveness of pay of different groups of nursing staff on staff shortage

Shortages of nursing staff in OECD countries have been a preoccupation for policy makers. Shortages of staff may be the consequence of uncompetitive pay. In the private sector, employers in different regions can offer different pay rates to reflect local amenities and cost of living. Hospitals in the UK however cannot set the pay for their employees, and as a result they might therefore incur staff shortages. Moreover, occupational groups do not operate in isolation. Shortages of staff may also be the consequence of the competitiveness of pay of an alternative group of staff. This is investigated using two distinct groups of nursing staff: assistant nurses (ANs) and registered nurses (RNs) working in English hospitals in 2003–2005 using national-level data sets. We find that an increase by 10% of the pay competitiveness of RNs decreases the shortage of both the RNs and of ANs by 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively.     

The Fiscal Multiplier in a Liquidity‐Constrained New Keynesian Economy

We study the effects of fiscal policy on the macroeconomy using a liquidity‐constrained New Keynesian model in which government bonds are liquid, and private financial assets are only partially liquid. We find that the fiscal multipliers in this economic environment are large enough for fiscal policy to be highly effective. In this model, a bond‐financed fiscal expansion can stimulate output because higher public borrowing improves liquidity by increasing the proportion of liquid assets in private‐sector wealth.     

Cointegration,error correction mechanism and trade liberalization: the case of the Spanish imports of manufactures

This paper examines the quit behaviour of members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. We find that the probability of a member continuing is lower when the member is an economist, when the member comes to the Board from the private sector, and when their policy views differ from the Board as a whole. In addition, we find evidence that the President can exert influence on the Fed by the power of appointment. And in contrast with what one might expect, we find that salaries on the Board relative to the private sector do not seem to be an important factor in determining the decision to continue service on the Board.     

Monetary Policy,Expectations and Commitment*

Commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies. A number of interest‐rate reaction functions and instrument rules have been proposed to implement or approximate commitment policy. We assess these rules in terms of whether they lead to a rational expectations equilibrium that is both locally determinate and stable under adaptive learning by private agents. A reaction function that appropriately depends explicitly on private sector expectations performs particularly well on both counts.     

What factors drive individual misperceptions of the returns to schooling in Tanzania? Some lessons for education policy

Evidence on educational returns and the factors that determine the demand for schooling in developing countries is extremely scarce. Building on previous studies that show individuals underestimating the returns to schooling, we use two surveys from Tanzania to estimate both the actual and perceived schooling returns and subsequently examine what factors drive individual misperceptions regarding actual returns. Using OLS and instrumental variable methods, we find that each additional year of schooling in Tanzania increases earnings, on average, by 9 to 11%. We find that on average individuals underestimate returns to schooling by 74 to 79% and three factors are associated with these misperceptions: income, asset, poverty and educational attainment. Shedding light on what factors relate to individual beliefs about educational returns can inform policy on how to structure effective interventions in order to correct individual misperceptions.     

The effects of fiscal policy on economic activity in Finland

This study analyzes whether fiscal policy decisions have real effects on the economy of Finland, and if they do, what are the strength and durations of the effects. We utilise the Vector Stochastic Process with Dummy Variables (VSPD) method in our empirical work. This approach is a suitable tool to study event-based episodes. Fiscal policy shocks do have an effect on the economic activity of Finland when the time period 1990–2007 is investigated. A positive tax shock (or a policy that increases public sector revenues) seems to have a positive effect on Investment and GDP but the response of private consumption is mixed. Results clearly indicate that increase in Government spending crowds out private sector activity, and the effect takes place sooner than with the Revenue variable in question. This is a clear evidence for the crowding out effect.     

Taylor rules and the Great Inflation

Can US monetary policy in the 1970s be described by a stabilizing Taylor rule when policy is evaluated with real-time inflation and output gap data? Using economic research on the full employment level of unemployment and the natural rate of unemployment published between 1970 and 1977 to construct real-time output gap measures for periods of peak unemployment, we find that the Federal Reserve did not follow a Taylor rule if appropriate measures are used. We estimate Taylor rules and find no evidence that monetary policy stabilized inflation, even allowing for changes in the inflation target. While monetary policy was stabilizing with respect to inflation forecasts, the forecasts systematically under-predicted inflation following the 1970s recessions and this does not constitute evidence of stabilizing policy. We also find that the Federal Reserve responded too strongly to negative output gaps.     

Financial sector opening and financial constraints: an empirical study based on China’s experiences

ABSTRACT

The paper investigates the effect of financial sector opening on financial constraints based on the experiences in China. We firstly review the policy of China’s financial sector opening and set up exogenous policy measures. Then based on the panel data of listed firms from 2010 to 2015, we calculate four indices to measure China’s firm-level financial constraints through internal and external finance channels. We find that China’s financial sector opening alleviates financial constraints and upgrades the financing structure for China’s listed firms. Financial sector opening also eliminates ownership discrimination and promotes financing efficiency, to alleviate financial constraints of private enterprises and profitable enterprises. The mechanism of the effects of financial sector opening on financial constrain is mainly through the collateral channels and the elimination of information asymmetry.     

经济政策有效性的理论分析* ——以货币政策为例

本文在更一般的不完全信息情形下，以货币政策为例，分析了经济政策的时间不一致问题。结果表明，当私人部门与政府部门存在不对称信息，政府部门具有信息优势时，最优经济政策与私人部门所持有的关于经济状态的信念有关。从福利的角度看，当现实经济状态对经济政策灵敏时，政府部门有公开经济状态信息的激励；反之，政府部门则有隐瞒经济状态信息的激励。因此，在市场经济的顶层设计中，除政府部门需要建立相关经济决策咨询机构外，还要推动独立的民间智库发展，使公众逐步摆脱信息劣势。     

Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models

Simulations of forward guidance in rational expectations models should be assessed using the “modest policy interventions” framework introduced by Eric Leeper and Tao Zha. That is, the estimated effects of a policy intervention should be considered reliable only if that intervention is unlikely to trigger a revision in private sector beliefs about the way that monetary policy will be conducted. I show how to constrain simulations of forward guidance to ensure that they are regarded as modest policy interventions and illustrate the technique using a medium-scale DSGE model estimated on US data. I find that many experiments that generate the large responses of macroeconomic variables deemed implausible by many economists – the so-called “forward guidance puzzle” – are not modest policy interventions. Those experiments should therefore be treated with caution, since they may prompt agents to believe that there has been a change in the monetary policy regime that is not accounted for within the model. More reliable results can be obtained by constraining the experiment to be a modest policy intervention. In the cases I study, the quantitative effects on macroeconomic variables are more plausible when this constraint is imposed.     

Public–private wage differentials in Turkey: public policy or market dynamics?

We evaluate public–private sector wage differentials by gender in Turkey between the years 2005 and 2013. Using micro data from Household Labor Force Surveys we find a positive premium for low wage earners and a penalty of working in the public sector at the higher end of the distribution. Although the penalty has not disappeared, the price effect has increased at both ends of the distribution. The increase at the lower tail is attributed to a higher price effect in the public sector, whereas at the higher tail it has been a result of a relatively uneven wage increase in the private sector along the distribution, rather than an explicit public wage policy.     

COMPARING FEDERAL AND PRIVATE‐SECTOR WAGES WITHOUT LOGS

I use Current Population Survey data from 2005 through 2010 to compare the wages of federal employees and workers in the private sector who have similar observable characteristics. The distribution of wages differed drastically between the federal and private sectors. In particular, I find that federal employees with no more than a high school diploma earned 21% more, on average, than their private‐sector counterparts, whereas those with a professional degree or doctorate earned 23% less. Overall, the average of federal wages was about 2% higher than the average wage of similar private‐sector workers. Other researchers have found larger differences because they used log‐linearized models, which result in comparisons of geometric means. I show that arithmetic means are more relevant in the context of the relationship between a government's compensation policy and its budget. The discrepancy between differences in arithmetic and geometric means occurs because the wages of federal employees were much less dispersed than those of employees with similar characteristics in the private sector. (JEL J31, J38, J45)     

An evaluation of ECB policy in the Euro's big four

The Taylor curve can be viewed as an efficiency frontier displaying the trade-off between the volatility of output and volatility of inflation. We build on the existing literature in this area and view Taylor curves as a lens through which to gauge the deviations of actual ECB policy from the optimum. We employ data over the period 1999-2013 period to measure the orthogonal distance of the observed volatilities from the Taylor curve in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Euro area using a recursive VARs. We find that the distance has substantially increased in all four countries suggesting that monetary policy has become less efficacious for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain since the financial crisis in 2007-2008. We also estimate counterfactual Taylor rules and find that a simple Taylor rule would have only substantially improved monetary policy efficacy in Germany.     

Public or Private Sector Wage Leadership? An International Perspective*

Whether a government acts as a wage leader, placing pressure on private‐sector wages (more open to competition), or whether it plays a passive role and merely follows wage negotiations in the private sector, there are important implications for macroeconomic development, particularly in small open economies and/or countries that are members of a monetary union, such as those of the European Monetary Union. With the notable exception of the case of Sweden, opinion on this issue is still divided. In this paper, we look at public‐ and private‐sector wage interactions from an international perspective (18 OECD countries). We focus on the causal two‐way relationship between public and private wage setting, confirming that the private sector, on the whole, appears to have a stronger influence on the public sector, rather than vice versa. However, we also find evidence of feedback effects from public wage setting, which affect private‐sector wages in a number of countries. When the private sector takes the lead on wages, there are few feedback effects from the public sector, while public wage leadership is typically accompanied by private‐sector feedback effects.     

Boosting confidence: Is there a role for fiscal policy?

This paper investigates the widely held view that expansionary fiscal policy can boost consumer and business confidence, which will stimulate private spending and sustain economic activity. We find evidence in favor of this conjecture, i.e., cuts in direct taxes generate a positive effect on consumer and business confidence, while the same applies in cases of higher non-wage government consumption. However, higher government wage bills and government investment reduce confidence, with the effect being more pronounced when the Debt to GDP ratio is high, possibly because they entail a permanent increase in the size of the public sector, which would have to be financed by higher future taxes.     

Wage Differentials between the State and Private Sectors in Moscow

In this study the 1997 Russian Labor Force Survey is used to investigate wage differentials between the state and the private sector in the city of Moscow. Our analysis demonstrates that substantial differences exist between private and state sector wages. We estimate the gap between private and state sector wages to be 14.3 percent for men and 18.3 percent for women. We also find gender differences in wages. Men in the private sector earn on average 23.7 percent more than women. The gender wage gap in the state sector is even higher at 32.5 percent. In the state sector, wages for both men and women increase as years of tenure increase. But in the private sector this is only true for men; women earn no return to tenure. The probability of employment in the private sector decreases with age and tenure.     

Research cooperation and international standards in a model of coalition stability

Suggestions on international cooperation in climate policy beyond 2012 include substituting or complementing international environmental agreements (IEA) with technology-oriented agreements (TOA). We look at the impact of TOA on environmental cooperation in a framework of coalition stability. Using a numerical model, we analyze the differences of several TOA and how they interact. We find that participation in and environmental effectiveness of the IEA are raised less effectively when the TOA focuses on research cooperation in mitigation technology rather than cooperation on augmenting productivity in the private good sector. This is due to the former having an effect on all actors via emissions, whereas effects of the latter are exclusive to research partners. For the same reason, we find that restricting research cooperation to the coalition is only credible when it focuses on productivity. Technology standards that reduce the emission intensity of production are unlikely to raise participation by themselves and may suffer from inefficiencies. However, these disadvantages do not apply when standards are implemented as a complementary instrument. Separately negotiated technology standards may hence facilitate participation in an IEA without adding to its complexity.     

The wage effects of training in Portugal: differences across skill groups,genders, sectors and training types

This article investigates the determinants and wage effects of training in Portugal. In a first stage, we show that there are considerable differences in training participation across groups of workers, with elder and low educated individuals participating substantially less. In a second stage, we show that training has a positive and significant impact on wages. The estimated wage return is about 30% for men and 38% for women. Discriminating between levels of education and working experience and the public and private sector reveals important differences across categories of workers. We find that women, low educated workers and workers with long working experience earn larger returns from training. The average effect of training is similar in the private sector and the public sector. However, differences across experience groups are larger in the private sector, while differences across education groups are larger in the public sector. We use three alternative classifications of training activities and find that training in the firm, training aimed to improve skills needed at the current job and training with duration less than a year are associated to larger wage gains.     

Federal reserve monetary policy and the non-linearity of the Taylor rule

We propose and estimate a generalized Taylor rule for the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to find out how the Fed funds rate is sensitive to changes in inflation and output gap variables in the post war period. We find that Fed's monetary policy has only reacted significantly to changes in inflation when they were between approximately 6.5–8.5%. However, the policy stance change on these changes was relatively small. The findings suggest that the US Fed has been too averse to change from its current monetary policy stance, and that it has not reacted noticeably to changes in the US economic activity, as measured by the output gap. The generalized functional form for the monetary policy rule suggests that similar non-linearity exists in the directional change of the Fed rate.     

Inflation and the Impact of Budgets

This article focuses on the adjustment of budget figures for the effect of inflation on the value of government debt. It asks whether such adjustment improves their performance as a measure of 'fiscal impact'. If inflation significantly influences the impact of budgets on the real economy, policy-makers may make inappropriate fiscal policy decisions if they are guided by unadjusted budget figures. The article argues that if agents perceive holdings of government debt as part of their wealth, changes in the real value of debt will have an effect on consumption behaviour. Therefore to assess the impact of fiscal policy on consumption it may be necessary to adjust budget figures so that they accurately indicate changes in the real value of debt held by the private sector. This article adjusts a series of structural public sector borrowing requirements (PSBR) for the effect of inflation on the real value of government debt held by the private sector. An empirical analysis concludes that the inflation-adjusted budget series provides a superior measure of fiscal impact on consumption, and hence the real economy.