Conditional Cash Transfer and School Outcomes: An Evaluation of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program in Davao Oriental,Philippines

The present study adds to the empirical literature examining the effects of conditional cash transfers on school outcomes. Using school‐level and student‐level enrolment data from Davao Oriental Philippines, we evaluate the influence of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (also known as 4Ps), a social development policy program, on the growth rates in school enrolment outcomes. The findings show that 4Ps, on average, increased school enrolment of children by 1.12 percent. It was also apparent that using student‐level data as opposed to school‐level data revealed a more robust effect of 4Ps on school outcomes. We also found some school and socioeconomic characteristics influencing the change in school enrolments. Finally, this study highlights the role of government intervention programs in improving access to education in the poorest sector of the economy.     

The fiscal cost of child grants in the context of high adult mortality in South Africa: A simulation to 2015

This paper investigates the expected costs of cash transfers to children in South Africa up to 2015. The child population is not expected to grow between 2008 and 2015 and thus the fiscal cost of the Child Support Grant is expected to stabilise in the near future. The other major child grant, the Foster Care Grant, is far less predictable – while it is not intended to be an orphan grant, three quarters of its beneficiaries are orphans. Because of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, the number of dual orphans is expected to double between 2008 and 2015, reaching 1.3 million, and the overall number of orphans (maternal, paternal and dual) to reach 4.8 million by 2015. If the Foster Care Grant were to become a de facto orphan grant, its costs would escalate rapidly. The paper does not argue in favour of an orphan grant, but rather for greater effort in ensuring that the Child Support Grant reaches the neediest children, especially maternal orphans.     

上市公司发放现金股利的价值效应——基于委托代理问题视角的实证研究

现金股利发放反映了债权人、股东、管理者之间的利益分配关系,现金股利的价值效应受到委托代理问题的影响。采用2008—2017年沪深A股上市公司作为研究样本,在委托代理理论的分析框架下实证检验我国上市公司发放现金股利的价值效应。研究表明,发放现金股利可能会损害债权人利益,过度债务公司发放现金股利的价值效应较小,而债务不足公司发放现金股利的价值效应较大。基于管理者代理问题视角的研究发现,现金股利可以有效发挥降低管理者代理成本的作用,当管理者代理问题严重时公司发放现金股利的价值效应更大。基于控股股东代理问题视角的实证结果表明,现金股利可以作为替代性的治理机制约束控股股东行为,当控股股东代理问题严重时现金股利具有更高的价值效应。     

江苏区际产业转移引力模型分析

本文在万有引力理论的基础上建立了江苏区际产业转移的模型。通过计算产业竞争力和产业融合度,得出十三个市之间的产业引力,发现江苏省区际产业转移的引力,与各地级市本身的产业发展竞争力以及两地之间产业发展的融合度成正比。同时,苏南与苏北地区之间的产业引力大于苏南内部引力,苏中与苏北地区之间的产业引力大于苏北与苏南之间,而苏北地区内部的引力最大。因此,发挥各地的资源禀赋优势,合理江苏省内的产业布局,提高各市的产业发展水平,才能实现江苏省区际产业转移的协调发展。     

新疆上市公司战略性业务转型的风险分析

上市公司实施战略性业务转型是提高企业经营业绩的重要手段,但是这种转型存在着巨大的风险。本文利用新疆上市公司战略性业务转型的典型案例,识别主要风险类型,提出为了降低风险需要进一步提高新疆上市公司的战略管理能力。具体而言,新疆上市公司需要准确把握产业竞争的特点,明确识别企业的核心能力,强化投资者关系管理,重视自然资本、人力资本和企业文化约束,以规避新疆上市公司战略性业务转型过程中的风险。     

安徽省农村土地流转分析——基于460户样本的调查数据

本文基于安徽省具有代表性的县（市）农村土地流转情况的实地调研数据分析评价全省农村土地的流转情况。调查结果显示,目前安徽省农村土地流转呈现流转方式多元化、流转过程市场化且日益规范化、流转价格日益合理等趋势。虽然农村土地流转提升了农业经济效益、提高了土地资源利用率、增加了农民收入、加快了产业结构调整进程等,但同时也面临一些新问题,如土地产权不明、缺乏有序的土地流转中介组织、土地流转形式过于分散、农村社会保障体系不健全等。为此,本文提出相应的建议,以期促进安徽省农村土地科学合理有序的流转。     

Fear of Floating Needn't Imply Fixed Rates: An OCA Approach to the Operation of Stable Intermediate Currency Regimes

The criteria of the theory of optimum currency areas suggest that many countries are not good candidates for either of the poles of genuinely fixed exchange rates or freely floating exchange rates. Thus, many countries should have an interest in intermediate exchange rate regimes. However, in a world of substantial capital mobility most forms of intermediate exchange rate regimes have proven to be highly crisis prone. This essay argues that the unholy trinity paradigm doesn't imply that intermediate exchange rate regimes are inherently unstable, but rather that exchange rate and monetary policies need to be jointly determined. The difficulties of maintaining such consistency are as much political as economic since temporarily pegged or managed rates create a time inconsistency problem. It is argued that OCA theory provides the framework for determining the appropriate weights and limits on the amount of sterilized intervention to maintain the consistency between exchange rate and monetary policies necessary to avoid currency crises. The paper also considers a number of the issues involved in integrating this approach with the literature on open economy aspects of inflation targeting.     

Running the Numbers on Lotteries and the Poor: An Empirical Analysis of Transfer Payment Distribution and Subsequent Lottery Sales

State lottery revenues are shown to increase during the week transfer payments are distributed. The timing of the increase in lottery purchases suggests a portion of the transfer payments is used to purchase lottery tickets. In addition to providing information on the timing of lottery purchases, this study finds sales of Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets increase during the period, while sales of Pick 5 and Pick 6 games do not, suggesting a general preference for the relatively higher probability, smaller jackpot games for the group.

城乡统筹视野的城市金融与农村金融对接:成都个案

在城乡统筹建设中,农村金融与城市金融是不可分割的整体。实现二者的有效联通是城乡统筹中金融发展的关键所在。城市金融与农村金融联通机制的建设,须注意金融机构的联通金融市场的联通,以及风险补偿机制的建设。     

An Empirical Analysis of Income Inequality between a Minority and the Majority in Urban China: The Case of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

Based on 2006 urban survey data of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, this paper studies the impact of ethnic characteristics on the region’s income determination mechanism. Using the decomposition methods of Blinder and Oaxaca, Fields, and Morduch and Sicular, we analyze income gaps between employed Hui and Han as well as income inequality within the two groups. The main conclusions are that there is almost no income gap between Han and Hui in Ningxia, but different ethnic characteristics affect the income determination mechanism. Ethnic factors such as religion and social capital have no obvious effect on the income determination.     

我国城乡贫富差距的适度性问题分析

城乡贫富差距没有一个绝对的适度标准，应从其对经济发展和社会稳定的影响两个方面进行具体的分析。从其与经济发展的关系看，虽然我国新时期的城乡贫富差距在特定时期影响了经济的发展，但是随着我国人民生活水平的提高和城乡居民消费水平的升级换代，这种影响将日趋减弱；从其与社会稳定的关系看，我国农村居民存在容忍城乡贫富差距的诸多因素，容忍度较高，当前的城乡贫富差距并没有对社会稳定形成冲击。