Principles of Australian Quarantine

This article provides an overview of the report on Australia’s quarantine policies and procedures, Australian Quarantine. The Report proposes fundamental changes to Australia’s approach to quarantine and recommends: the development of a partnership between industry, governments and the general public; the establishment of a statutory authority to develop Australia’s quarantine policy and to ensure national delivery of quarantine services; acknowledgment of the importance of maintaining Australia’s unique natural environment; the need to redress the imbalance between the plant and animal sectors; development of a more formally structured process for conducting risk analyses; and expanding the scope of quarantine beyond the ‘barrier’ to cover pre-border, border and post-border activities.     

Quarantine Risk Analysis

Australia's quarantine policy is based on the concept of manageable risk, which is underpinned by quarantine risk analysis, which this article examines with particular reference to recommendations of the 1996 Australian Quarantine Review. Quarantine risk assessment addresses disease concerns associated with any particular proposed import and may also require detailed examination of possible economic and environmental effects. The degree of quantification varies, and more quantitative approaches may be either deterministic or stochastic. Assessments consider both the probability of an event occurring and its consequences, including the direct economic effect of any introduction of an exotic disease.     

动物检验检疫对食品安全作用的探讨

改革开放以来,我国的畜牧养殖业发展迅速,养殖的规模越来越大,对推动经济发展、促进食品生产加工繁荣起到了非常重要的促进作用。但与此同时,畜牧养殖过程中也会因为技术、环境或人为等因素的影响而导致养殖的动物感染疫病,不仅会给养殖管理增加了难度与工作量,还会因为动物疫病的隐藏性、传染性,以及检验检疫过程中出现的疏漏,给下游的食品生产加工质量带来直接影响,进而影响消费者的身体健康。所以,加强对动物养殖生产环节的检验检疫力度与质量,是保证食品源头安全的重要手段。     

中国畜产品区域规模化发展策略、问题与对策

我国优势畜产品生产的区域规模化优势得到显现,但存在着区域规模化养殖对环境的污染加重、疫病危害程度大、标准化水平不高以及面临生存危机和市场风险加大等问题,对此,要采取适度规模经营、合理布局、严格防疫、加强标准化养殖以及发展生态养殖等对策。     

Estimating the social welfare effects of New Zealand apple imports

International trade of agricultural products not only generates wealth but is also responsible for the introduction of invasive pests beyond their natural range. Comprehensive bioeconomic modelling frameworks are increasingly needed to assist in the resolution of import access disputes. However, frameworks that combine welfare analysis attributable to trade and invasive species spread management are lacking. This study provides a demonstration of how a comprehensive economic framework, which takes into account both the gains from trade and the costs of invasive species outbreaks, can inform decision‐makers when making quarantine decisions. We develop a partial equilibrium trade model considering international trade and combine it with a stratified dispersal model for the spread and management of potential outbreaks of an invasive species. An empirical estimation is made of the economic welfare consequences for Australia of allowing quarantine‐restricted trade in New Zealand apples to take place. The results suggest the returns to Australian society from importing New Zealand apples are likely to be negative. The price differential between the landed product with SPS measures in place and the autarkic price is insufficient to outweigh the increase in expected damage resulting from increased fire blight risk. As a consequence, this empirical analysis does not support the opening up of this trade.     

Land use conversion in metropolitan areas and the permanence of agriculture: Sensitivity Index of Agricultural Land (SIAL), a tool for territorial analysis

In the past few years, urban growth has affected vast agricultural areas, especially in some European regions (EEA, 2006). In peri-urban areas, land consumption is particularly intense, exposing agriculture to the risk of land loss. Assuming the action of different factors, both exogenous and endogenous, on the agricultural system, the potential risk of land use conversion is measured by the Sensitivity Index of Agricultural Land (SIAL), an innovative tool for territorial analysis. In the following paper, the SIAL will be presented with an application for a metropolitan area. In this case study, the exogenous variables of urban proximity seem to be those most involved in the processes of conversion from agricultural to urban land use.     

Costs and benefits of controlling quarantine diseases: a bio-economic modeling approach

This article describes a bio-economic model to quantify the costs and benefits of controlling plant quarantine diseases. The model integrates the epidemiology and economic consequences of a quarantine disease. It allows for ex ante evaluation of control scenarios for their cost-effectiveness, taking into account potential export losses resulting from presence of the disease. The model is applied to brown rot of potato in the Dutch potato production chain. Simulation results show that under the current (2006) control policy, the average yearly costs of brown rot are 7.7 million euros. Reducing monitoring frequency increases the costs to 12.5 million euros, 60% of which are export losses. It is also shown that, due to potential long-term effects of a strategy, conclusions on cost-effectiveness of a strategy depend on the length of the period over which that strategy is observed. These applications illustrate the potential of the bio-economic model to facilitate the development of cost-effective and soundly based control policies.     

Productivity and Producer Welfare in the Presence of Production Risk

Production risk is an inherent characteristic of agriculture and changes in production risk will affect the welfare of risk‐averse producers. Using standard concepts from the literature on uncertainty, we introduce a welfare measure which comprises total factor productivity (TFP), production risk and farmer risk preferences, and which reflects the impact on producer welfare of changes in production technology. An empirical application is carried out using data from a sample of Spanish dairy farms which shows how the positive impact of increases in TFP on welfare can be offset by increases in the risk premium (‘cost of risk’) to the point where welfare may decrease.     

STABILISATION AND RISK REDUCTION IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE*

Agricultural producers typically are faced with risk about the yields they will experience and the prices they will receive. Stabilisation schemes can spread risk and thereby reduce the risk faced by individual producers. The risk-reducing capacity of a scheme and the cost of risk reduction depend upon the design of the scheme. In particular, it is important to distinguish between risk and instability. A classification of scheme designs is presented to bring out the effects of various design types. Schemes for the wheat industry are given most attention.     

我国果蔬品出口应对技术壁垒的分析

随着关税壁垒作用日益减弱,技术贸易壁垒在当今国际贸易中的影响日益强化。我国的果蔬产业一直是优势产业,该文分析了主要发达国家对果蔬进口设置的严格的卫生检疫要求具体情况,提出扩大我国果蔬出口应对技术性贸易措施的管理对策。     

Differences in Social and Public Risk Perceptions and Conflicting Impacts on Point/Nonpoint Trading Ratios

If stochastic nonpoint pollution loads create socially costly risk, then an economically optimal point/nonpoint trading ratio—the rate point source controls trade for nonpoint controls—is adjusted downward (a risk reward for nonpoint controls), encouraging more nonpoint controls. However, in actual trading programs, ratios are adjusted upward in response to nonpoint uncertainties (a risk premium for nonpoint controls). This contradiction is explained using a public choice model in which regulators focus on encouraging abatement instead of reducing damages. The result is a divergence of public and social risk perceptions, and a trading market that encourages economically suboptimal nonpoint controls.     

On the need for more economic assessment of quarantine policies

Quarantine policy reviews are becoming more sophisticated yet they still focus primarily on the effects of restrictions solely on import-competing producers. A fuller analysis that includes the consumers demonstrates that even if imported diseases were to wipe out a local industry, the gains to consumers might outweigh the losses to import-competing producers from removing a ban on imports. This article provides the simplest partial equilibrium framework for thinking more about the economics of quarantine policy measures using an empirical analysis of Australia's ban on imports of bananas.     

The Value of Dairy Quota under a Commercial Export Milk Program

This paper argues that under a commercial export milk program, the market value of quota will be determined by the spread between the domestic market price and the export price, rather than the conventional wisdom that it is determined by the spread between the domestic milk price and the marginal cost of production. Under this new economy, it is argued that ultimately the market price of dairy quota will be priced independently of firm marginal costs, which implies that low-cost (or high-margin) producers will not hold an economic advantage in bidding for quota over higher-cost producers. Regression results are consistent with the hypothesized positive relationship between quota values and the difference between domestic and export milk price. The average export price has generally increased over time and is approximately equal to the marginal cost for an average producer. The results have implications for a World Trade Organization (WTO) challenge. New Zealand and the United States feel the domestic program acts as an export subsidy by cross-subsidizing production of commercial export milk. The results here suggest that the prices for the filled export contracts are approximately the marginal cost of production for the average producer and not lower, as suggested by the challenge. Export contracts were found to have higher price risk than domestically produced milk. The risk is compounded by the short-term nature of most export contracts. The increase in risk for the commercial export milk program (CEM) implies that it is unlikely many farmers will greatly diversify into CEM contracts unless the uncertainty is reduced.     

Are pesticides risk decreasing? The relevance of pesticide indicator choice in empirical analysis

The reduction of adverse health and environmental effects from pesticide use is currently a top priority on the agricultural policy agenda. Efficient pesticide policies must take into account farmers’ application behavior, especially effects of pesticide use on economic risk. However, previous results regarding the direction of risk effects of pesticides are ambiguous. We show that the ambiguity in earlier studies could be due to the pesticide indicator selected. Indicators which fail to account for the heterogeneous properties of pesticides may be inapt for interpreting farmers’ pesticide use decisions. Our analysis, based on a rich panel dataset of Swiss wheat producers with highly detailed information on pesticide use, considers different pesticide indicators and multiple sources of uncertainty. Our key finding is that indicator choice affects the magnitude and sign of estimated risk effects. Estimates of pesticide productivity and risk effects are significantly higher for fungicides, and even reversed for herbicides when we measure pesticide use in simple quantity units (kilogram per hectare) - compared to the quality and intensity corrected Load Index. This means for example, that farmers will ceteris paribus use lower quantities of herbicides, but will increase the overall toxicity of the products applied with increasing risk aversion. We discuss implications of our findings for the design of pesticide policies and agricultural risk management instruments.     

Adaptive management decision of agroforestry under timber price risk

In an effort to increase wood production and mitigate environmental problems, agro-forestry practices have emerged as a viable strategy in the Northern Plains of China, where one popular form of the agro-forestry system consists of fast-growing and high-yield plantation of poplar (populus) trees and the underwood planting of button mushroom (Agaricus bisporous). This paper examines adaptive management decision-making with stochastic dynamic programming under risk of timber price. Under the assumption of risk neutral preferences of the investors, the results suggest that the reservation price strategy remains optimal for the harvesting decision of agro-forests: when the timber price is higher than the reservation price, poplar trees should be harvested to end agro-forestry; otherwise, the trees should be retained. Numerical results are presented for sample agro-forest stands, which show that, with underwood planting, the reservation price for timber harvesting will be higher than that in pure forest.     

New Futures Markets in Agricultural Production Rights: Possibilities and Constraints for the British and Dutch Milk Quota Markets

Farms are increasingly being affected by policies that involve production rights. Because of fluctuations in the prices of these rights in the spot market, farmers face a price risk. Establishing a futures market might enable them to hedge against this price risk. Rights futures have some features that differ from those of traditional commodity futures. This makes them an effective and efficient tool for managing price risk. The implications of these findings will be illustrated for milk quotas in the United Kingdom and The Netherlands. Prior conditions which might make a futures market for milk quotas successful in both countries will be deduced.     

景观生态风险评价的方法研究

区域景观生态风险评价是在景观基础上,描述人类活动或自然灾害对区域内生态系统结构、功能等产生不利作用的可能性和危害程度.区域景观生态风险评价的方法步骤可以概括为研究区的界定与景观分析、受体分析、风险源分析、暴露与危害分析以及风险综合评价等几个部分.     

Stochastic efficiency analysis with risk aversion bounds: a correction

A recent paper by Hardaker et al. (The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 48, 2004a, 253) and book by Hardaker et al. (Coping with Risk in Agriculture, 2004b) describe a procedure for determining an efficient set from among a set of random alternatives. This procedure, called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF), is claimed to make the same assumption concerning the risk aversion measures as does stochastic dominance with respect to a function (SDRF). This is claim is incorrect. SERF imposes an additional requirement on the risk aversion measures of the decision makers. Both procedures assume a lower and an upper bound on risk aversion, but SERF also assumes that all risk aversion measures are of the same functional form as these lower and upper bound functions. This additional strong requirement on risk preferences implies that the efficient set identified under SERF is usually smaller than that identified using SDRF.     

Flood risk and imprudence of planning in Extremadura,Spain

The natural risks of flooding inherent to Mediterranean climates is a well-known fact, but one difficult to gauge and rarely accurately in terms of space, quantity and degree. Fortunately, in Spain the national Cartographic System for Flood Areas (SNCZI) partially compensates for the deficit, calculating the probability of these natural phenomena. The present paper describes the number, location and characteristics of the homes exposed to flooding in Extremadura. The methodology used in the study reveals in great detail the clandestine homes built on land not apt for urban development (via scans and visual detection techniques using the available series of ortho-rectified aerial photographs), particularly those at flood risk (determined by SNCZI cartography). This reveals deficiencies in risk management and land use. Also, the information leads to the conclusion that current action from the Administration is ineffective in preventing any risk of flooding, and that the risk is known, but ignored.     

The Agricultural Marketing Improvement Strategies Project (AMIS)

The Agricultural Marketing Improvement Strategies Project (AMIS), funded by the Bureau for Science and Technology of USAID, is a five-year applied research project designed to assist USAID Missions and developing countries in diagnosing marketing system constraints, identifying innovations for improving system productivity, and testing selected pilot interventions. Country activities will follow a cycle of rapid appraisal (problem identification phase), applied research (in-depth diagnosis of selected constraints), and pilot innovations (interventionist phase). The project hopes to promote and strengthen local capability for doing more effective research on agricultural commodity subsystems.